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On $20 billion in lost projects, Alligator Alcatraz’s closure, and Amazon state’s rally

Current conditions: The highest wave measured from Hurricane Erin was 45 feet by a buoy located 150 miles off North Carolina’s Cape Hetteras • Intense rainfall is flooding Rajasthan in India • Wildfires continue raging across North America and southern Europe.
The Trump administration issued a stop-work order to halt construction of Orsted’s flagship project off the coast of Rhode Island. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management halted work on the Revolution Wind project while its regulators were “seeking to address concerns related to the protection of national security interests of the United States,” a letter from the agency stated. The project was nearly completed, and already connected to the grid. The Danish state-owned Orsted said it was “evaluating all options to resolve the matter expeditiously.”
Earlier this month, the company put out a bid for $9.4 billion from the stock market to fund its work in the U.S. amid President Donald Trump’s crackdown. As Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote of the sale, “While the market had been expecting Orsted to raise capital in some form, the scale of the raise is about twice what was anticipated,” causing its stock to plunge almost 30%. The White House has aggressively targeted policies that benefit wind energy in recent weeks. Following the Friday announcement, shares in Orsted tumbled 17% to a record low.
Trump’s clampdown on wind and solar has sent the industry spiraling in recent weeks as federal agencies limit access to clean energy tax credits and rework rules to disfavor the industry’s two largest sources of energy. Already, $18.6 billion worth of clean energy projects have been canceled this year, compared to just $827 million last year, according to data from Atlas Public Policy’s Clean Economy Tracker cited in the Financial Times.
Trump has blamed renewables for the rising price of electricity. But data Matthew covered last week showed that renewables are, if anything, correlated with lower prices. Instead, he wrote, at the “top of the list” of reasons electricity prices are surging “is the physical reality of the grid itself,” the poles and wires required to send energy into people’s homes and businesses. “Beyond that, extreme weather, natural gas prices, and data center-induced demand growth all play a part.”

Together with the state of Florida, the Trump administration rushed to build what it calls “Alligator Alcatraz,” a detention facility designed to hold several thousand migrants at a time in southern Florida. In its haste to complete the facility, however, the government failed to conduct the proper environmental reviews, according to a federal judge who ordered its closure late last week, The Wall Street Journal reported. Back in June, a pair of nonprofits filed a lawsuit alleging that the government had failed to conduct assessments of what impact the facility would have on endangered animals such as the Florida panther and the Florida bonneted bat. The Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida later joined the lawsuit.
The Trump administration argued that the law in question, the National Environmental Policy Act, only applies to federal projects, whereas this one was state-driven, an argument Judge Kathleen Williams rejected, according to the Journal. “Every Florida governor, every Florida senator, and countless local and national political figures, including presidents, have publicly pledged their unequivocal support for the restoration, conservation, and protection of the Everglades,” she wrote. “This Order does nothing more than uphold the basic requirements of legislation designed to fulfill those promises.”
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The eight countries that ring the Amazon rainforest pledged support over the weekend for a global pool of financing for conservation. In a joint declaration, the Amazonian nations — Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela — expressed support for preserving the rainforest but stopped short of endorsing any curbs on fossil fuels. The statement comes as South America has emerged as the world’s hottest oil patch, with new discoveries moving forward off the coasts of Guyana and Brazil and Argentina advancing plans for a fracking boom.
“Abrupt changes” like the precipitous loss of sea ice are unfolding in Antarctica, highlighting the growing threat global warming poses to the frozen continent, according to a new paper in the journal Nature. These changes could push the Antarctic ecosystem past a point of no return, the authors wrote.
“We’re seeing a whole range of abrupt and surprising changes developing across Antarctica, but these aren’t happening in isolation,” climate scientist Nerilie Abram, lead author of the paper, told Grist. “When we change one part of the system, that has knock-on effects that worsen the changes in other parts of the system. And we’re talking about changes that also have global consequences.”
Bad news for vegans who evangelize their diets on good health grounds: New research found no increased risk of death “associated with higher intake of animal protein. In fact, the data showed a modest but significant reduction in cancer-related mortality among those who ate more animal protein.” That, however, doesn’t change the huge difference in emissions between red meat and plant food products.
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On Qatari aluminum, floating offshore wind, and Taiwanese nuclear
Current conditions: Upstate New York and New England are facing another 2 inches of snow • A heat wave in India is sending temperatures in Gujarat beyond 100 degrees Fahrenheit • Record-breaking rain is causing flash flooding in South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria.
The war with Iran is shocking oil and natural gas prices as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closes and Americans start paying more at the pump. “So despite the stock market overall being down, clean energy companies’ shares are soaring, right?” Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday. “Wrong. First Solar: down over 1% on the day. Enphase: down over 3%. Sunrun: down almost 8%; Tesla: down around 2.5%.” What’s behind the slump? Matthew identified three reasons. First, there was a general selloff in the market. Second, supply chain disruptions could lead to inflation, which might lead to higher interest rates, or at the very least slow the planned cycle of cuts. Third, governments may end up trying “to mitigate spiking fuel prices by subsidizing fossil fuels and locking in supply contracts to reinforce their countries’ energy supplies,” meaning renewables “may thereby lose out on investment that might more logically flow their way.”
The U.S. liquified natural gas industry is certainly looking at boom times. U.S. developers signed sale and purchase agreements for 40 million tons per year in 2025 from planned export facilities, according to new Department of Energy data the Energy Information Administration posted. That’s the highest volume since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent demand for American LNG soaring. That conflict, too, is still having its effects on global fossil fuel supplies. A Russian-flagged LNG tanker is on fire in the Mediterranean Sea as the result of a drone strike by Ukraine, The Independent reported Wednesday.
It’s not just fossil fuels. Qatari smelter Qatalum started shutting down on Tuesday as 50% shareholder Norsk Hydro issued a force majeure notice to customers. “The decision to shut down was made after the company’s gas supplier informed it of a forthcoming suspension of its gas supply,” the company said in a statement to Mining.com. QatarEnergy — which owns 51% of Qatalum’s other shareholder, Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co. — had previously suspended production after halting output of natural gas due to Iranian drone attacks.
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Panel manufacturer Silfab Solar paused production at its South Carolina factory in Fort Mill after a chemical spill triggered a regulatory investigation. The plant accidentally spilled approximately 300 gallons of a water solution containing less than 0.3% potassium hydroxide. Experts told WCNC, the Charlotte-area NBC News affiliate, that the volume of the caustic chemical that spilled will be harmless. But the state Department of Environmental Services “asked Silfab to cease receipt of additional chemicals at their facility until an investigation is complete.” Such accidents risk political backlash at a time of heightened public health anxiety over clean energy technologies. As Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last summer, the Moss Landing battery factory fire sparked a nationwide backlash.
Two-thirds of offshore wind potential is located at sites where the water is too deep for traditional turbine platforms. But the first wind farm with floating platforms only came into operation nine years ago. The largest so far, located in Norway’s stretch of the North Sea, is just under 100 megawatts. So, if completed, Spanish developer Ocean Winds’ in the United Kingdom would be by far the largest plant. The company took a step forward on the 1.5-gigawatt project when the company signed the lease agreement this week, according to OffshoreWIND.biz.
In Denmark, meanwhile, right-wing politicians are campaigning against the country’s offshore wind giant, Orsted. The country’s conservative Liberal party campaigned on divesting from the company, which claims the Danish government as its largest shareholder, back in 2022. Now, Bloomberg reported, the party is once against renewing its calls to exit Orsted after this year’s election.

Facing surging electricity demand and mounting threats of blackouts from Chinese attacks on energy imports, Taiwan is taking yet another step toward reversing its nuclear phaseout. Nearly a year after the island nation’s last reactor shut down, Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai, a member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party that has long opposed atomic energy, announced new proposals to allow the state-owned Taiwan Power Company to submit plans to restart at least two of the country’s three shuttered nuclear stations. (A fourth plant, called Lungmen, was nearly completed in the late 2010s before the DPP government canceled its construction.) The government report also said Taiwan may consider building new nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors or fusion plants.
In June 2023, thousands of lightning strikes in heat wave-baked Quebec sparked more than 120 wildfires that ultimately scorched nearly 7,000 acres of parched forests. Lightning, in fact, starts almost 60% of wildfires. Now a Vancouver-based weather modification startup called Skyward Wildfire says it can prevent catastrophic blazes by stopping lightning strikes through cloud seeding. MIT Technology Review found some good reasons to doubt the company’s claims. But experts said preventing wildfires is cheaper than putting them out, so it may have some merit.
The attacks on Iran have not redounded to renewables’ benefit. Here are three reasons why.
The fragility of the global fossil fuel complex has been put on full display. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed, causing a shock to oil and natural gas prices, putting fuel supplies from Incheon to Karachi at risk. American drivers are already paying more at the pump, despite the United States’s much-vaunted energy independence. Never has the case for a transition to renewable energy been more urgent, clear, and necessary.
So despite the stock market overall being down, clean energy companies’ shares are soaring, right?
Wrong.
First Solar: down over 1% on the day. Enphase: down over 3%. Sunrun: down almost 8%; Tesla: down around 2.5%.
Why the slump? There are a few big reasons:
Several analysts described the market action today as “risk-off,” where traders sell almost anything to raise cash. Even safe haven assets like U.S. Treasuries sold off earlier today while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
“A lot of things that worked well recently, they’re taking a big beating,” Gautam Jain, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, told me. “It’s mostly risk aversion.”
Several trackers of clean energy stocks, including the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index (down 3% today) or the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (down over 3%) have actually outperformed the broader market so far this year, making them potentially attractive to sell off for cash.
And some clean energy stocks are just volatile and tend to magnify broader market movements. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has a beta — a measure of how a stock’s movements compare with the overall market — higher than 1, which means it has tended to move more than the market up or down.
Then there’s the actual news. After President Trump announced Tuesday afternoon that the United States Development Finance Corporation would be insuring maritime trade “for a very reasonable price,” and that “if necessary” the U.S. would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the overall market picked up slightly and oil prices dropped.
It’s often said that what makes renewables so special is that they don’t rely on fuel. The sun or the wind can’t be trapped in a Middle Eastern strait because insurers refuse to cover the boats it arrives on.
But what renewables do need is cash. The overwhelming share of the lifetime expense of a renewable project is upfront capital expenditure, not ongoing operational expenditures like fuel. This makes renewables very sensitive to interest rates because they rely on borrowed money to get built. If snarled supply chains translate to higher inflation, that could send interest rates higher, or at the very least delay expected interest rate cuts from central banks.
Sustained inflation due to high energy prices “likely pushes interest rate cuts out,” Jain told me, which means higher costs for renewables projects.
While in the long run it may make sense to respond to an oil or natural gas supply shock by diversifying your energy supply into renewables, political leaders often opt to try to maintain stability, even if it’s very expensive.
“The moment you start thinking about energy security, renewables jump up as a priority,” Jain said. “Most countries realize how important it is to be independent of the global supply chain. In the long term it works in favor of renewables. The problem is the short term.”
In the short term, governments often try to mitigate spiking fuel prices by subsidizing fossil fuels and locking in supply contracts to reinforce their countries’ energy supplies. Renewables may thereby lose out on investment that might more logically flow their way.
The other issue is that the same fractured supply chain that drives up oil and gas prices also affects renewables, which are still often dependent on imports for components. “Freight costs go up,” Jain said. “That impacts clean energy industry more.”
As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said the Navy would start escorting ships “as soon as possible.”
“It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
A federal court shot down President Trump’s attempt to kill New York City’s congestion pricing program on Tuesday, allowing the city’s $9 toll on cars entering downtown Manhattan during peak hours to remain in effect.
Judge Lewis Liman of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the Trump administration’s termination of the program was illegal, writing, “It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
So concludes a fight that began almost exactly one year ago, just after Trump returned to the White House. On February 19, 2025, the newly minted Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, rescinding the federal government’s approval of the congestion pricing fee. President Trump had expressed concerns about the program, Duffy said, leading his department to review its agreement with the state and determine that the program did not adhere to the federal statute under which it was approved.
Duffy argued that the city was not allowed to cordon off part of the city and not provide any toll-free options for drivers to enter it. He also asserted that the program had to be designed solely to relieve congestion — and that New York’s explicit secondary goal of raising money to improve public transit was a violation.
Trump, meanwhile, likened himself to a monarch who had risen to power just in time to rescue New Yorkers from tyranny. That same day, the White House posted an image to social media of Trump standing in front of the New York City skyline donning a gold crown, with the caption, "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"
New York had only just launched the tolling program a month earlier after nearly 20 years of deliberation — or, as reporter and Hell Gate cofounder Christopher Robbins put it in his account of those years for Heatmap, “procrastination.” The program was supposed to go into effect months earlier before, at the last minute, Hochul tried to delay the program indefinitely, claiming it was too much of a burden on New Yorkers’ wallets. She ultimately allowed congestion pricing to proceed with the fee reduced from $15 during peak hours to $9, and thereafter became one of its champions. The state immediately challenged Duffy’s termination order in court and defied the agency’s instruction to shut down the program, keeping the toll in place for the entirety of the court case.
In May, Judge Liman issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the DOT from terminating the agreement, noting that New York was likely to succeed in demonstrating that Duffy had exceeded his authority in rescinding it.
After the first full year the program was operating, the state reported 27 million fewer vehicles entering lower Manhattan and a 7% boost to transit ridership. Bus speeds were also up, traffic noise complaints were down, and the program raised $550 million in net revenue.
The final court order issued Tuesday rejected Duffy’s initial arguments for terminating the program, as well as additional justifications he supplied later in the case.
“We disagree with the court’s ruling,” a spokesperson for the Transportation Department told me, adding that congestion pricing imposes a “massive tax on every New Yorker” and has “made federally funded roads inaccessible to commuters without providing a toll-free alternative.” The Department is “reviewing all legal options — including an appeal — with the Justice Department,” they said.