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Economy

AM Briefing: Solar Milestone

A quick COP recap, solar hits a record, and a new high-speed train

AM Briefing: Solar Milestone
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Parts of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest could see record high temperatures today • Australia is in the grips of a ferocious heatwave • The Greek village of Metamorfosi has voted to relocate its residents to the nearby town of Palamas following devastating September floods. A thunderstorm warning is in effect today for Palamas.

THE TOP FIVE

1. A quick COP recap

It’s a “rest day” at COP28, which means there probably won’t be a ton of news coming out of Dubai. But now’s a good time to reflect on what’s happened so far, and what to expect as the conference enters its second half.

Key accomplishments:

  • Loss and damage fund: On day one of COP28, world leaders reached a landmark deal to set up a fund aimed at helping vulnerable nations deal with the costly effects of climate change. The early accomplishment set an optimistic tone for the summit. The Guardiannotes that wealthy countries have so far pledged $700 million to the fund, which is “far short of what is needed.”
  • Methane cuts: About 50 oil and gas companies pledged to slash their methane leaks by 2030. Critics cry greenwashing.
  • Renewables pledge: At least 120 countries backed a pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
  • Support for phasing out oil and gas: The number of countries pledging to end oil and gas extraction and exploration grew to 24 after Spain, Kenya, and Samoa joined the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance.
  • Global cooling pledge: 63 countries including the U.S. and Canada have pledged to reduce their cooling-related emissions by at least 68% by 2050.

Still to come:

  • Global stocktake: Talks begin “in earnest” tomorrow about the key document that will set out the world’s climate goals for the coming years, and determine how they’ll be accomplished. The most contentious issue is whether the stocktake will include a call for a phase out of fossil fuels. A new draft of the global stocktake is expected Friday morning.

2. U.S. solar capacity to hit record high in 2023

The U.S. added 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity in the third quarter of 2023, up 35% year-over-year, according to a new report published this morning from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. The report projects that in 2023 the U.S. will add a total of 33 GW of solar capacity, a 55% increase compared to new capacity in 2022. Growth is expected to slow slightly next year as the industry runs up against economic headwinds, but the dip will be temporary. By 2028, U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 377 GW, up from 161 GW now, and solar is “still expected to be the largest source of generating capacity on the U.S. grid by 2050,” Electrekreports. The authors urge the industry to “continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid.”

solar chartSEI/Wood Mackenzie

3. Vivek Ramaswamy calls climate agenda a ‘substitute for modern religion’ in GOP debate

“The woke climate agenda” emerged as a villain at the fourth GOP debate on Wednesday night, reports Heatmap’s Jeva Lange. The topic first lurched on stage in the form of Republicans’ favorite three-letter boogeyman, ESG. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called ESG investing an attempt to use “economic power to impose a left-wing agenda on this country.” Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley alleged that DeSantis is beholden to Chinese companies like “JinkoSolar,” which he supposedly gave “$2 million in subsidies.” And in his closing remarks, Vivek Ramaswamy really let loose: “We should not be bending the knee to this new religion! That’s what it is, a substitute for a modern religion! We are flogging ourselves! And losing our modern way of life! Bowing to this new god of climate! And that will end on my watch!”

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  • 4. Biden awards $3 billion grant for Vegas-Los Angeles high-speed train line

    The Biden administration has awarded a $3 billion federal grant to Brightline West to develop an all electric high-speed rail line connecting Las Vegas to the outskirts of Los Angeles. The funding is an “almost unheard of infusion of federal money for a private project,” The Washington Postexplains. The project is expected to cost $12 billion in total and be completed in just four years, in time for the 2028 Olympic Games in L.A. Trains will travel at 186 miles per hour and transport commuters in about 2 hours – roughly half the driving time. “This is a historic moment that will serve as a foundation for a new industry, and a remarkable project that will serve as the blueprint for how we can repeat this model throughout the country,” Wes Edens, the founder and chairman of Brightline, said in a statement.

    TrainBrightline West

    Map of trainBrightline West

    5. Panama Canal bottleneck could affect Christmas shipments

    Reduced capacity for container ships in the Panama Canal due to ongoing drought in the region could cause a bottleneck that turns into “the Pinch that Stole Christmas,” saysBloomberg's Tim Culpan. Daily crossings have already been reduced from 36 to 25 and will be cut further to just 18 by February. Container vessels, which carry everything from cars to Christmas toys, are being hit especially hard. “After the drought made the canal shallower, ships now have to lighten their loads,” Cuplan explains. “The result is fewer containers making the crossing per day, heightening the chance that many goods won’t make it to their destinations in time for Christmas.”

    THE KICKER

    Despite OPEC production cuts, oil prices are at their lowest level in five months thanks to investor concerns over rising supply and waning global demand.

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    Energy

    AM Briefing: Power Hungry

    On the IEAs latest report, flooding in LA, and Bill Gates’ bad news

    Global Electricity Use Is Expected to Soar
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Current conditions: Severe thunderstorms tomorrow could spawn tornadoes in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Alabama • A massive wildfire on a biodiverse island in the Indian Ocean has been burning for nearly a month, threatening wildlife • Tropical Cyclone Zelia has made landfall in Western Australia with winds up to 180mph.

    THE TOP FIVE

    1. Breakthrough Energy to slash climate grantmaking budget

    Bill Gates’ climate tech advocacy organization has told its partners that it will slash its grantmaking budget this year, dealing a blow to climate-focused policy and advocacy groups that relied on the Microsoft founder, Heatmap’s Katie Brigham has learned. Breakthrough Energy, the umbrella organization for Gates’ various climate-focused programs, alerted many nonprofit grantees earlier this month that it would not be renewing its support for them. This pullback will not affect Breakthrough’s $3.5 billion climate-focused venture capital arm, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, which funds an extensive portfolio of climate tech companies. Breakthrough’s fellowship program, which provides early-stage climate tech leaders with funding and assistance, will also remain intact, a spokesperson confirmed. They would not comment on whether this change will lead to layoffs at Breakthrough Energy.

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    Yellow
    Climate Tech

    Breakthrough Energy Is Slashing Its Climate Grantmaking Budget

    Grantees told Heatmap they were informed that Bill Gates’ climate funding organization would not renew its support.

    Bill Gates.
    Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

    Bill Gates’ climate tech advocacy organization has told its partners that it will slash its grantmaking budget this year, dealing a blow to climate-focused policy and advocacy groups that relied on the Microsoft founder, Heatmap has learned.

    Breakthrough Energy, the umbrella organization for Gates’ various climate-focused programs, alerted many nonprofit grantees earlier this month that it would not be renewing its support for them. This pullback will not affect Breakthrough’s $3.5 billion climate-focused venture capital arm, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, which funds an extensive portfolio of climate tech companies. Breakthrough’s fellowship program, which provides early-stage climate tech leaders with funding and assistance, will also remain intact, a spokesperson confirmed. They would not comment on whether this change will lead to layoffs at Breakthrough Energy.

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    Blue
    Spotlight

    Anti-Wind Activists Have a Big Ask for the Big Man

    The Trump administration is now being lobbied to nix offshore wind projects already under construction.

    Trump and offshore wind.
    Getty Images / Heatmap Illustration

    Anti-wind activists have joined with well-connected figures in conservative legal and energy circles to privately lobby the Trump administration to undo permitting decisions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to documents obtained by Heatmap.

    Representatives of conservative think tanks and legal nonprofits — including the Caesar Rodney Institute, the Heartland Institute and Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, or CFACT — sent a letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum dated February 11 requesting that the Trump administration “immediately revoke” letters from NOAA to 11 offshore wind projects authorizing “incidental takes,” a term of regulatory art referencing accidental and permissible deaths under federal endangered species and mammal protection laws. The letter lays out a number of perceived issues with how those approvals have historically been issued for offshore wind companies and claims the government has improperly analyzed the cumulative effects of adding offshore wind to the ocean’s existing industrialization. NOAA oversees marine species protection.

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