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Current conditions: At least 45 are dead and many more are trapped in the Indian state of Kerala after heavy rainfall triggered landslides • California’s Park Fire, only 14% contained, is now the sixth-largest in the state’s history • Typhoon Gaemi’s death toll continues to climb as the storm’s remnants batter southern China • A flash flood hit the popular Dollywood theme park in Tennessee.
European companies are considering whether to invest in new clean energy projects in the U.S. as November’s election looms, Reuters reported on Monday. The Inflation Reduction Act’s incentives for clean energy, EVs, and hydrogen – which drew many European firms to cross the Atlantic – are perceived to be in jeopardy in the event of a Trump victory. Companies like Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Nel, SMA Solar, and H2Apex, which have undertaken clean energy projects in the U.S. in the last two years, are all delaying investment decisions over worries that tax credits and demand could dry up.
Their concerns are warranted. Donald Trump has pledged to redirect clean energy funding to other priorities like roads and bridges should he win re-election. And the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 (widely seen as a policy map for a second Trump term) proposes gutting key climate agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy’s Loans Program Office.
Type One Energy closed its seed funding round at $82.5 million, a testament to the hype surrounding the emerging nuclear fusion company. As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham reports, the company uses a reactor design known as a stellarator, which – unlike the traditional tokamak reactor – employs a twisted magnetic field to keep the plasma stabilized inside. The company’s novel technology sparked interest from major funders like Breakthrough Energy, Centaurus Capital, and New Zealand-based GD1. Type One CEO Chris Mowry called the funding round, “one of the largest, if not the largest ever, seed financings in the history of energy.”
The host of the UN COP29 climate summit flared 10.5% more methane in 2023 than it did in 2018, the last time the country reported its emissions, according to recent analysis by nonprofit group Global Witness. Flaring involves burning (rather than capturing) the natural gas produced as a byproduct of oil drilling, and it is responsible for over 381 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions annually, according to the World Bank. Several of the facilities most at fault for the increase in flaring are owned or operated by British multinational energy company BP.
It’s a new black mark on Azerbaijan’s climate record, already under scrutiny by those who object to holding another climate conference in a major oil and gas-producing country.
A forthcoming report by economic analysis group IMPLAN finds that wildfires could punch a nearly $90 billion hole in U.S. economic output this year. Wildfires are already displacing entire communities as they rage across much of the American West. That’s going to have an impact, says IMPLAN — potentially eliminating as many as 466,000 jobs by the end of the year. The report notes that some industries may actually benefit from the surge in wildfires. Businesses like electricity, healthcare, and (of course) fire prevention could see elevated spending as climate change increases the frequency of these destructive blazes.
Vegetation isn’t acting as the carbon sponge many had hoped it would. A new study by the French research organization Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Sciences (LCES) found that between 2022 and 2023, the growth rate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased 86%. That’s partly because drought in the Amazon and wildfires in Canada constrained forests’ ability to sequester carbon as they normally do. While the report’s authors noted that carbon uptake changes from year to year, these findings cast doubt on forests’ reliability as a carbon sponge in the future. “We are pumping less carbon from the atmosphere into the land,” one of the study’s authors told Reuters. “Suddenly the pump is choking, and it's pumping less.”
“Unfortunately, meteorological events beyond our control ... can alter water quality and compel us to reschedule the event for health reasons.” – A joint statement by World Triathlon and Paris 2024 blaming the weekend’s rain storms for the pollution in the Seine that caused them to postpone today’s men’s Olympic triathlon.
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“It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
A federal court shot down President Trump’s attempt to kill New York City’s congestion pricing program on Tuesday, allowing the city’s $9 toll on cars entering downtown Manhattan during peak hours to remain in effect.
Judge Lewis Liman of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the Trump administration’s termination of the program was illegal, writing, “It is difficult to imagine more arbitrary and capricious decisionmaking than that at issue here.”
So concludes a fight that began almost exactly one year ago, just after Trump returned to the White House. On February 19, 2025, the newly minted Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, rescinding the federal government’s approval of the congestion pricing fee. President Trump had expressed concerns about the program, Duffy said, leading his department to review its agreement with the state and determine that the program did not adhere to the federal statute under which it was approved.
Duffy argued that the city was not allowed to cordon off part of the city and not provide any toll-free options for drivers to enter it. He also asserted that the program had to be designed solely to relieve congestion — and that New York’s explicit secondary goal of raising money to improve public transit was a violation.
Trump, meanwhile, likened himself to a monarch who had risen to power just in time to rescue New Yorkers from tyranny. That same day, the White House posted an image to social media of Trump standing in front of the New York City skyline donning a gold crown, with the caption, "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD. Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"
New York had only just launched the tolling program a month earlier after nearly 20 years of deliberation — or, as reporter and Hell Gate cofounder Christopher Robbins put it in his account of those years for Heatmap, “procrastination.” The program was supposed to go into effect months earlier before, at the last minute, Hochul tried to delay the program indefinitely, claiming it was too much of a burden on New Yorkers’ wallets. She ultimately allowed congestion pricing to proceed with the fee reduced from $15 during peak hours to $9, and thereafter became one of its champions. The state immediately challenged Duffy’s termination order in court and defied the agency’s instruction to shut down the program, keeping the toll in place for the entirety of the court case.
In May, Judge Liman issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the DOT from terminating the agreement, noting that New York was likely to succeed in demonstrating that Duffy had exceeded his authority in rescinding it.
After the first full year the program was operating, the state reported 27 million fewer vehicles entering lower Manhattan and a 7% boost to transit ridership. Bus speeds were also up, traffic noise complaints were down, and the program raised $550 million in net revenue.
The final court order issued Tuesday rejected Duffy’s initial arguments for terminating the program, as well as additional justifications he supplied later in the case.
“We disagree with the court’s ruling,” a spokesperson for the Transportation Department told me, adding that congestion pricing imposes a “massive tax on every New Yorker” and has “made federally funded roads inaccessible to commuters without providing a toll-free alternative.” The Department is “reviewing all legal options — including an appeal — with the Justice Department,” they said.
Current conditions: A cluster of thunderstorms is moving northeast across the middle of the United States, from San Antonio to Cincinnati • Thailand’s disaster agency has put 62 provinces, including Bangkok, on alert for severe summer storms through the end of the week • The American Samoan capital of Pago Pago is in the midst of days of intense thunderstorms.
We are only four days into the bombing campaign the United States and Israel began Saturday in a bid to topple the Islamic Republic’s regime. Oil prices closed Monday nearly 9% higher than where trading started last Friday. Natural gas prices, meanwhile, spiked by 5% in the U.S. and 45% in Europe after Qatar announced a halt to shipments of liquified natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which tapers at its narrowest point to just 20 miles between the shores of Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It’s a sign that the war “isn’t just an oil story,” Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday. Like any good tale, it has some irony: “The one U.S. natural gas export project scheduled to start up soon is, of all things, a QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil joint venture.” Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer further explored the LNG angle with Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew on the latest episode of Shift Key.
At least for now, the bombing of Iranian nuclear enrichment sites hasn’t led to any detectable increase in radiation levels in countries bordering Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday. That includes the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Tehran research reactor, and other facilities. “So far, no elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels has been detected in countries bordering Iran,” Director General Rafael Grossi said in a statement.
Financial giants are once again buying a utility in a bet on electricity growth. A consortium led by BlackRock subsidiary Global Infrastructure Partners and Swedish private equity heavyweight EQT announced a deal Monday to buy utility giant AES Corp. The acquisition was valued at more than $33 billion and is expected to close by early next year at the latest. “AES is a leader in competitive generation,” Bayo Ogunlesi, the chief executive officer of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, said in a statement. “At a time in which there is a need for significant investments in new capacity in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, especially in the United States of America, we look forward to utilizing GIP’s experience in energy infrastructure investing, as well as our operational capabilities to help accelerate AES’ commitment to serve the market needs for affordable, safe and reliable power.” The move comes almost exactly a year after the infrastructure divisions at Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, bought the Albuquerque-based utility TXNM Energy in an $11.5 billion gamble on surging power demand.
China’s output of solar power surpassed that of wind for the first time last year as cheap panels flooded the market at home and abroad. The country produced nearly 1.2 million gigawatt-hours of electricity from solar power in 2025, up 40% from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg analysis of National Bureau of Statistics data published Saturday. Wind generation increased just 13% to more than 1.1 gigawatt-hours. The solar boom comes as Beijing bolsters spending on green industry across the board. China went from spending virtually nothing on fusion energy development to investing more in one year than the entire rest of the world combined, as I have previously reported. To some, China is — despite its continued heavy use of coal — a climate hero, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham has written.
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Canada and India have a longstanding special friendship on nuclear power. Both countries — two of the juggernauts of the 56-country Commonwealth of Nations — operate fleets that rely heavily on pressurized heavy water reactors, a very different design than the light water reactors that make up the vast majority of the fleets in Europe and the United States. Ottawa helped New Delhi build its first nuclear plants. Now the two countries have renewed their atomic ties in what the BBC called a “landmark” deal Monday. As part of the pact, India signed a nine-year agreement with Canada’s largest uranium miner, Cameco, to supply fuel to New Delhi’s growing fleet of seven nuclear plants. The $1.9 billion deal opens a new market for Canada’s expanding production of uranium ore and gives India, which has long worried about its lack of domestic deposits, a stable supply of fuel.
India, meanwhile, is charging ahead with two new reactors at the Kaiga atomic power station in the southwestern state of Karnataka. The units are set to be IPHWR-700, natively designed pressurized heavy water reactors. Last week, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India poured the first concrete on the new pair of reactors, NucNet reported Monday.
The Spanish refiner Moeve has decided to move forward with an investment into building what Hydrogen Insight called “a scaled-back version” of the first phase of its giant 2-gigawatt Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley project. Even in a less ambitious form, Reuters pegged the total value of the project at $1.2 billion. Meanwhile in the U.S., as I wrote yesterday, is losing major projects right as big production facilities planned before Trump returned to office come online.
Speaking of building, the LEGO Group is investing another $2.8 million into carbon dioxide removal. The Danish toymaker had already pumped money into carbon-removal projects overseen by Climate Impact Partners and ClimeFi. At this point, LEGO has committed $8.5 million to sucking planet-heating carbon out of the atmosphere, where it circulates for centuries. “As the program expands, it is helping to strengthen our understanding of different approaches and inform future decision-making on how carbon removal may complement our wider climate goals,” Annette Stube, LEGO’s chief sustainability officer, told Carbon Herald.
In this special edition of Shift Key, Rob talks to Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew about how the U.S.-Israeli-led conflict will reshape global energy markets.
The United States and Israel have launched a devastating new war on Iran. What has happened so far, when could it end, and what could it mean for oil, gas, and the global energy shift?
Rob is joined by Gregory Brew, an analyst with the Eurasia Group’s energy, climate, and resources team focused on the geopolitics of oil and gas. He serves as the group’s country analyst for Iran. He’s also an historian of modern Iran, oil, and U.S. foreign policy, and the author of two books about the subject.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Robinson Meyer: I think the first place that people’s minds go when you’re talking about Iran, when you’re talking about the Strait of Hormuz, is oil. Why is the Strait of Hormuz particularly important to the global oil market? And then second of all, what have we seen as the initial effects here?
Gregory Brew: So the Strait of Hormuz matters for three reasons. One, it is a very narrow waterway. So it is quite easy, theoretically, to block it. Other waterways — even the Bab el-Mandab and the Red Sea, the Strait of Malacca, other strategic pathways through which large quantities of energy move — are not so easily disrupted as the Strait of Hormuz. That’s reason number one.
Reason number two, Iran. Iran is there. Iran frequently threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, frequently threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. It is a hostile actor vis-à-vis the other states in the region. We are now seeing proof of that, given that it is open fire on the GCC in a concerted way. That’s another reason why the Strait of Hormuz gets so much attention as far as the connection between the strait, the strait security and the situation in the global oil market.
The third reason — I guess there are four reasons. The third reason is the volume of energy moving through the strait. It’s close to a fifth of global oil supply. It’s 20 million barrels a day, sometimes a little more. It’s a significant portion of the global LNG supply coming from Qatar has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A large quantity of refined products, metal distillates, condensates, fuel oil moves through the strait. So the volume affected by the strait being closed or disrupted or affected in some way is very, very large.
Finally, fourth point, there’s nowhere else to go. You can’t go around the Strait of Hormuz. You have to go through it. Tankers that can’t transit the strait or are blocked from doing so have no other options. There’s no Africa route, as there was with the Red Sea disruption. So for those four reasons, the Strait of Hormuz gets a lot of attention. And it’s why it’s getting attention now. Although, interestingly enough, price of oil has responded, but has not moved so in a significant way, at least per some people’s expectations.
Meyer: Well, the theme of the year in oil so far has been that there’s a glut of oil. Or there’s at least a small glut of oil. We’ve kind of been dealing with that for a long time. And so I wonder if that is in some way — one hesitates to call this good for oil markets, but it is kind of solving an issue for the market. Do you think oil is the most important energy product affected by this war?
Brew: Well, it’s certainly the largest in terms of volume, given how much oil moves through the strait. However, I think this could end up being a gas story as much as an oil story.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
From Heatmap: War With Iran Isn’t Just an Oil Story
From Heatmap: How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Accelerate your clean energy career with Yale’s online certificate programs. Explore the 10-month Financing and Deploying Clean Energy program or the 5-month Clean and Equitable Energy Development program. Use referral code HeatMap26 and get your application in by the priority deadline for $500 off tuition to one of Yale’s online certificate programs in clean energy. Learn more at cbey.yale.edu/online-learning-opportunities.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.