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Two years in, union leaders say Biden’s big climate law is making a difference.

The Inflation Reduction Act is by far the most important climate law ever passed in the U.S. But it also may go down as one of the most important labor laws of recent history. Overnight, jobs installing solar farms that were largely performed by an itinerant, low-wage workforce had the potential to become higher-paid positions occupied by skilled tradespeople — maybe even union jobs.
That’s because in order to qualify for a 30% tax credit on their investment or operating costs, clean energy developers now have to follow two key labor standards. They have to pay construction workers the federally determined prevailing wage for their region, plus hire a designated number of apprentices, who are provided with paid classroom instruction in addition to on-the-job-training.
“I don’t think people have a sense of the scale and the scope of what this law has done and is going to do,” Rick Levy, the president of the Texas AFL-CIO, told me. “From our perspective, putting community well-being and labor standards in the very fabric of this industrial expansion is going to pay dividends for generations.”
On the eve of the IRA’s two-year anniversary, a new report provided exclusively to Heatmap has identified 6,285 utility-scale clean energy projects planned, under construction, or already operating, that are likely candidates for these tax credits. Together, they represent an estimated 3.9 million jobs, according to the Climate Jobs National Resource Center, a nonprofit that supports unions fighting for worker-centered climate action, which compiled the data.
There’s no way to know, at least right now, how many of the projects still in progress will actually get built, or how many have or will adhere to labor standards. Safe harbor provisions in the law also allow developers to claim the full tax credit without adhering to the rules as long as they started construction by the end of January 2023, so the full effect of the provisions will take some time to be realized.
But the report reveals the vast potential for the law to create higher-quality jobs in clean energy all over the country. Based on my reporting, that potential is starting to materialize. Union leaders told me they’re now having conversations with developers who never returned their calls before. And renewable energy developers and tax credit consultants told me it was a no-brainer to meet the labor standards, even though they create substantial administrative burdens. Otherwise, they’ll only be eligible for a 6% credit, leaving a huge amount of money on the table.
Mike Fishman, the executive director of the Climate Jobs National Resource Center, told me that when he first started advocating for high-road climate jobs, he found that many trades workers were afraid of clean energy. “If they had a good job in the fossil fuel industry, then saying, we’re going to reach these goals and shut down all the fossil fuel plants, that was very scary to people.” But since the IRA passed, he’s seen a change in workers’ attitudes about supporting climate action. “It creates a sense that there’s a future for everyone — an economic future, as well as a climate future,” Fishman said.
The IRA’s potential to spur well-paid jobs and training opportunities is actually even larger than the Resource Center’s estimate indicates. The report only covers clean energy generation projects like wind and solar farms, but the law also tied labor standards to tax credits for the construction of clean energy manufacturing plants, EV chargers, carbon capture projects, hydrogen plants, clean fuel factories, and new, energy-efficient buildings.
The standards are likely to affect each of these industries in different ways, but it’s instructive to look at what’s already happening in renewable energy development. To do so, you first have to understand that developers sit near the top of a ladder of companies involved in bringing an energy project into the world. Above them sits investors; below, a series of contractors and subcontractors who manage the project on the ground and hire the workers who ultimately build it.
Before the IRA, everyone along this ladder had an incentive to keep costs as low as possible. At the top, developers are competing for power contracts with utilities. Contractors would try to win bids by quoting the lowest construction costs. Staffing agencies would source temporary workers from all over the country and negotiate wages and benefits on a case by case basis. An investigation into solar work by Vice found that it was “common to have two workers doing the same job for vastly different pay and living stipends.” Some would travel to a new place for a gig and “pile into motel rooms with other workers on the same projects in order to save money.”
The IRA disrupts that incentive structure, creating a new regime whereby the top priority is getting that 30% tax credit. The law also extended the ladder, creating new rungs of accountability thanks to new tax credit transferability rules that allow developers to sell their tax credits to third parties. That means there are a host of other companies looming over developers’ shoulders with a stake in making sure they don’t cheat the rules. Tax credit buyers don’t want to end up in a situation where the IRS audits the developer who sold them the credits, finds that there weren’t enough apprentices on the project, and claws back the money. The risk is serious enough that buyers also purchase insurance for these transactions, adding another layer of oversight.
“The lawyers are scaring everyone about this,” Derek Silverman, the co-founder and chief product officer of Basis Climate, a startup that matches tax credit buyers and sellers, told me. For example, the law contains a loophole for companies to claim the credit without hiring the required number of apprentices as long as they show they made a “good faith effort.” Treasury defines that as having reached out to at least one registered apprenticeship program in the area every year the project is operating. Silverman said he’s seen lawyers challenge companies that are trying to get around the requirement, asking them who they reached out to and berating them if it wasn’t a legitimate effort.
“They’re saying, you have a huge part of your capital stack that’s based off this tax credit,” said Silverman. “It’s not worth the downside of the government questioning through an audit that you didn’t meet these requirements, and then, boom, you owe them $20 million when it would have cost you $100,000 to do the documentation and get that all square.”
The upside is valuable enough that it’s generated a whole new cottage industry in tax credit compliance. Empact Technologies, for example, is a software company that collects and evaluates payroll data from contractors to make sure they are paying the correct wages and have the right number of apprentices. “Then we have to go back and essentially fix all of the mistakes that they made every single week” — like classifying workers incorrectly and paying them the wrong amount, or falling behind on apprenticeship hours — “which every single contractor does. It’s insane,” Charles Dauber, Empact’s founder, told me.
All of this has added much complexity — and cost — to renewable energy development. David Yaros, who co-leads Deloitte’s US Tax Sustainability Practice, told me that the cost of compliance, including hiring companies like Empact and Deloitte to compile all the documentation, could eat into 5% to 20% of the tax benefits.
“This has raised our costs,” Rodrigo Inurreta Acero, a government affairs manager at the international developer EDP Renewables, confirmed, referring specifically to the added cost of consultants rather than the mostly negligible cost of paying prevailing wages. “But, we are very, very happy to comply with this, because the juice is worth the squeeze.”
There’s clear incentives for developers to do everything in their power to meet the labor standards. The key question is whether these two little provisions — prevailing wage and apprenticeships — are strong enough to “build a strong pipeline of highly-skilled workers” and “ensure clean energy jobs are good-paying jobs,” as the Biden administration has said.
The need is definitely there. A census of U.S. solar jobs in 2022 found that 52% of solar installation and project development companies found it “very difficult” to find qualified workers, with electricians and construction workers being among the most difficult positions to fill.
But even if armies of lawyers are scaring companies into making serious efforts to hire apprentices, that doesn’t mean they are actually finding them. “It’s not clear at this stage whether apprenticeship programs are scaling up fast enough to match labor supply to project demand,” Derrick Flakoll, a policy associate at BloombergNEF told me. He pointed to an announcement made by the White House just last month of $244 million in grants to expand the Registered Apprenticeship system throughout the country. “I’d be skeptical that apprenticeship programs have been able to scale up yet,” said Flakoll.
There’s a catch with the wage requirement, too: “Prevailing wage” doesn’t necessarily mean a living wage, and it can vary dramatically from place to place. The rate is determined by surveys sent out to contractors and labor organizations, and is typically higher in jurisdictions with active labor unions. For example, in Falls County, Texas, where the 640 megawatt Roseland Solar project is under construction, prevailing wage for a general laborer is $8.75 an hour. In Sangamon County, Illinois, where the 800 megawatt Black Diamond Solar project is being built, prevailing wage for a laborer is $34.04 an hour plus benefits worth $29.26 an hour.
Nico Ries, the lead organizer for the Green Workers Alliance, which organizes solar and wind workers, told me solar wages seem to have only increased in places with higher union density. That’s because unions are now on a more even playing-field to compete for jobs in those areas, since their typical rates have become the de facto minimum.
To be clear, the prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions do not require developers to hire union workers to build their projects. And there are plenty of non-union, registered apprenticeships. Ries told me that the temp staffing agencies that have served the solar industry in the past are quickly standing up apprenticeship programs to stay on top of the market under the IRA. The main problem with that, they said, is that unlike union apprentices, these workers have no representation.
“There’s a lot of misinformation,” Ries said. “People think they are joining an apprenticeship and it’s going to be a whole thing, but it’s really just a little training or two, and then they slap a sticker on your hard hat.”
Nonetheless, unions are starting to make inroads in solar in places that have long been hostile to organized labor. Ethan Link, the assistant business manager for the Southeast Laborers’ District Council, which has members in right-to-work states throughout the south, told me that before and after the IRA was like “night and day.” For the first time, solar developers are calling the union directly to talk about projects on the horizon and to figure out how to work with them. As a result, the union is investing in more solar-specific training for its apprenticeship instructors.
“The Inflation Reduction Act is one of the most consequential and, I think, also most innovative ways of inducing the market to have broad based benefits for the community,” Link said. “The way I’ve experienced it, it’s changed the landscape on the ground with these developers within a matter of months, rather than a matter of years.” He said they don’t yet have a lot of workers actually assigned to projects, but “we’re really optimistic about where things sit right now.”
Kent Miller, president of the Wisconsin Laborers’ District Council, told me his union has been able to double its apprenticeship program from around 300 to 400 students a few years ago to closer to 700 to 800 post-IRA. It’s now looking to build another training campus to expand its capacity. Not all of that growth is thanks to renewable energy, he said, but the union now has a significant portion of its membership that just works in utility-scale solar.
Earlier this year, Wisconsin’s four biggest electric utilities pledged to employ local, union labor on all future renewable energy projects. Miller doesn’t think this would have happened without the incentives in the IRA. Though every wind farm in Wisconsin has been built by union labor, the more nascent solar industry was starting to bring in non-union workers from out of state to build projects. The IRA incentives gave Miller’s union leverage in negotiations with the utilities, because future projects were going to need to be able to find registered apprentices. “Unions run the best registered apprenticeship programs,” he said. “It was showing what we could do, what we could bring to the table.”
There is one more small but potentially powerful incentive for developers to work with unions. The Internal Revenue Service has said that if companies sign a project labor agreement — an agreement with one or more unions, made prior to hiring, that establishes wages and benefits — then they are less likely to be audited, and won’t have to pay penalties if they are found to be non-compliant.
To Levy, of the AFL-CIO in Texas, and others in the labor movement, getting workers to support clean energy is essential to tackling climate change. “Unless workers see themselves and their interests reflected in these new energy technologies, there’s never going to be the kind of political support that we need to be able to do the things we need to do to save the planet,” Levy said. The first step to achieve that, he said, is making sure these jobs are “good union jobs.”
The Climate Jobs National Resource Center connected me with Kim Tobias, a union electrician in Maine, as an example of how union jobs can change lives. Tobias used to work in call centers, providing customer service for healthcare software companies, before leaving to join the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. She was making $16 an hour in her last call center job after more than 10 years in the field, and was fed up after getting passed over for a promotion. When she started as an electrical apprentice in 2019, she essentially doubled her salary overnight once benefits were taken into account.
Today, in part because of the IRA, but also because of a state law that requires developers to pay prevailing wage on all large renewable projects in Maine, Tobias mainly works on solar projects. The work isn’t always ideal — she told me she once had to commute 75 miles away for a solar job — while she was pregnant, no less. “Then again, a year and a half later, I worked a solar job that was 0.9 miles away from my house. So it’s give and take,” she said.
But Tobias also said she sees potential to create high-quality clean energy jobs beyond solar in Maine, where, she lamented, “people under the age of 30 are leaving in droves.” She noted that an old paper mill in Lincoln, Maine, is being turned into an energy storage site, and the developer has already said it would establish a collective bargaining agreement with the Maine Building and Construction Trades. Illustrating Levy’s point about political support, the union is also now advocating for the construction of a new port to support the offshore wind industry, which would have to be built with union labor under a recent state law.
Even if the IRA’s labor provisions are starting to work, which it seems they are, they contain one significant weakness. The rules only apply to the construction of projects — not to their operations. It’s an improvement to have labor standards for construction jobs. But once they are built, wind and solar farms don't take many people to operate. The federally subsidized clean energy manufacturing plants springing up around the country due to the IRA will create a lot more jobs, but, at least right now, those jobs don’t have to be “good.”
“I think that people need to understand the opportunity here,” said Levy, and make sure that we continue to build on it and not turn back.”
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to clarify the “good faith effort” exception to the apprenticeship provision and that both provisions apply only to construction.
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On NRC moves, Blue Energy, and China’s solar and methanol breakthroughs
Current conditions: The World Cup’s final match between Argentina and Spain is set to take place Sunday in New Jersey, where the thick orange haze of Canadian wildfire smoke is still hovering • Temperatures are soaring to 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Ethiopia’s northeast Afar province • Researchers just categorized the first major dust storm of Arizona’s monsoon season, which struck Phoenix earlier in the week, as a Category 3.

On Tuesday, I told you about the United Arab Emirates’ plan to build a new port to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq and its oil partners are looking westward. The Financial Times reported yesterday that Chevron and Baghdad are in advanced discussions to form a consortium to build and restore a pipeline network through Syria as an alternate route to export oil. The U.S. oil giant is working with the Los Angeles-based TI Capital and an investment group owned by the Syrian-Qatari billionaire Al-Khayyat brothers, who own a major construction company in the Gulf nation and are, according to Bloomberg, “betting big” on Syria’s post-war reconstruction.
It’s yet another sign that, as my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote, it’ll be a long time before the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operations — especially now that the war is back on.
Just two weeks ago, I told you that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had proposed both overhauling how it measures the risks from radiation exposure and giving more flexibility to developers to prove their reactors operate safely. Now the agency is continuing its regulatory blitz with another rule, posted Thursday to the Federal Register, to smooth the way for license renewals, speed up approvals to begin construction on certain components and structures at new nuclear plants, and provide more guidance for technologies that use coolants other than water.
In Spain, meanwhile, the country’s Nuclear Safety Council gave the country’s oldest nuclear station, the Almaraz plant two hours west of Madrid, the greenlight to continue operating until 2030, according to NucNet. Currently, the Spanish government is pursuing the world’s only active nuclear phaseout policy. Virtually every country that has phased out atomic energy now regrets it. Switzerland and Belgium already reversed course. German politicians complain constantly about what a mistake it was to quit nuclear power. Taiwan, which shut down its last reactor last year, now wants to reopen at least one. Even Italy, the first country to abandon nuclear energy, is now looking to revive the industry.
Constellation Energy knows a thing or two about what works with nuclear power. So it’s quite notable that the largest operator of civilian reactors in the nation is making a bet on one of the more unique startups hoping to shape the next generation of atomic power stations. Constellation’s venture arm announced a strategic equity investment into Blue Energy, a developer that is pitching itself as a project manager to get small modular reactors built on time and on budget. Unlike most other players in the nuclear game at the moment, Blue Energy isn’t designing its own reactor. The company calls itself “reactor agnostic.” Rather, Constellation said the company would focus instead on building GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300, a 300-megawatt boiling water reactor that is currently one of the leading designs in the U.S. “With demand for near-term power rising, Constellation’s investment will help Blue Energy meet America’s need by making new nuclear development predictable, rapidly scalable, and project financeable for the first time in history,” Blue Energy CEO Jake Jurewicz said in a statement. “This relationship helps us leverage an established operator, proven technology, and innovative, project-financeable deployment models to expand access to nuclear energy.”
Meanwhile, one of the most attention-grabbing startups in the next-generation reactor race is looking at an eye-popping valuation. Led by its 27-year-old CEO Isaiah Taylor, Valar Atomics made waves when it worked with the U.S. military to transport the components for its gas-cooled microreactor by plane. The company is now eyeing a $6 billion valuation, The Information reported last night.
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New York City’s brand-new power line connecting the five boroughs to Quebec’s hydroelectric system is down for repairs in the midst of the summer heat. Hydro-Quebec, the French-speaking province’s state-owned utility, said its teams had “identified a fault with the terrestrial cable” at a location on the U.S. stretch of the route. Governor Kathy Hochul’s office called the outage “unacceptable” in a statement to Gothamist.
Over in Hawaii, Governor Josh Green, a fellow Democrat, signed legislation to adopt a clean fuel standard, making the island state the fifth in the nation to adopt such a policy. The program will come into full effect at the start of 2029, and will use market incentives to reduce the carbon intensity of fuel over time. Texas, meanwhile, is serving as the model for the new bipartisan permitting reform bill my colleague Robinson Meyer broke news of last night.
Chinese panel manufacturer LONGi’s newest solar cell has made a breakthrough in increasing the power conversion efficiency of its panels to 35.5%. That figure was confirmed this week by a European certification test. The cell design is called a crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cell, which PV Tech described as “widely regarded as a leading technology pathway for next generation” solar panels. A perovskite top cell with a crystalline silicon bottom cell allows the solar panel to tap into both technologies’ efficiencies. By contrast, the efficiency by percentage of energy converted to electricity in thin-film solar cells like those the U.S. manufacturer First Solar sells tap out somewhere in the teens. The more popular crystalline silicon cells that China has dominated have efficiency rates of up to 24%. So LONGi’s announcement represents a significant improvement.
Meanwhile, China’s state-owned pipeline company, PipeChina, successfully shipped two batches of methanol about 125 miles through existing oil pipelines in northwest China. Hydrogen Insight hailed the test as “a record-breaking trial that could transform” a sector long plagued by questions about how to transport fuel. It’s the latest sign, as I told you last month, that Beijing is doubling down on green hydrogen.
Like a Mesopotamian metal merchant of yore, I like to train a keen eye on copper prices in this newsletter. And with good reason: It’s the basic building block of the electrical system, and it’s subject to some wild geopolitical price pressures. Just look at why the price is sliding now. Per Mining.com, the major storms in Chile and the flareup of hostilities in Iran are depressing the market for the metal, which had hit an all-time high earlier this year.
Senator Martin Heinrich’s bill, which makes it easier to connect new power plants to the grid, is an encouraging sign for bipartisan permitting reform.
An important part of a bipartisan permitting reform deal may be falling into place.
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico introduced a bill on Thursday that would make it easier for new power plants to hook up to electricity markets across the country.
The legislation, which applies to all types of generation, would allow new power plants to connect to the grid without waiting for the arduous technical studies — and without paying the exorbitant equipment upgrade fees — now required in much of the country.
Instead, the bill would let power plants opt into a much faster safety study and offer what it cheekily dubs “basic access service for energy-only delivery” — that is, BASED service — to the local electricity market.
A similar approach is already used in Texas, which has added more new generation than any other U.S. power market in recent years. In effect, Heinrich hopes to bring that cheaper, faster, and more laissez-faire method to the rest of the country.
“As electricity demand grows, we need to find better, faster ways to add more affordable, reliable power to the grid,” Heinrich said in a statement. “Right now, unnecessary delays are slowing projects that could help lower energy costs and deliver the low-cost energy we need.”
Outside experts have pushed for wider adoption of Texas’s approach, which is dubbed “connect and manage,” for some time. Although Heinrich’s proposal would apply to all kinds of power plants, Texas has been particularly successful at bringing new solar, battery, and natural gas power plants online in recent years — and it has done so while keeping connection costs lower than other markets.
“We’re seeing the success of the free market in Texas,” Sarah Toth Kotwiss, an electricity researcher at the energy and climate think tank RMI, told me, noting the state has added far more generation in recent years than much bigger and more populous U.S. grid zones. “They’re leading the way, and replicating that free market attitude could go a long way in the rest of the U.S.”
More broadly, the proposal is the kind of legislation that would slot into the bipartisan permitting package expected later this year — and as soon as next month. Heinrich’s proposal may be a sign that the senator, the ranking Democratic member of the natural resources committee, takes the prospect of reaching a deal seriously.
Across much of the country, a new power plant can only connect to the power grid after the local grid operator completes what’s called an “interconnection study” — an intensive technical account of how that new plant will affect the overall system.
These studies examine a slew of worst-case scenarios, simulating how the plant would behave at full capacity under extremely congested grid conditions, such as during a heat wave. The new plant’s developer is then required to pay for the grid and transmission line upgrades that would allow their project to run at full blast at those moments of maximum stress.
In theory, that approach maximizes the amount of money a developer can make on a new power plant. But because the grid is a big, interconnected system, that method can cause long delays and rippling costs in practice. In one case, a new 300-megawatt plant in North Dakota near the Canadian border could not start operating until it paid nearly $3 million to upgrade power lines and transformers in Missouri — more than 1,000 miles away.
And because interconnection studies try to model a proposed power plant’s influence on the power grid for years into the future, a single cancellation can have a cascading effect. When a power plant pulls out of the interconnection queue, every project in line behind it sometimes needs to be studied again, causing delays and costs to spiral even further.
In one famous example, a solar and battery plant in Maryland was initially told that it needed to pay for $1.25 million to connect to the local grid. But after a series of cancellations and new rounds of study, that figure was revised — to nearly $72 million. The solar project got shelved.
While interconnection queues used to be relatively quick, the process of hooking up a new power plant to the grid can now regularly take eight years, Kotwiss said.
As I discussed with the electricity researchers Tyler Norris and Claire Waymer on Heatmap’s podcast Shift Key in 2024, these lengthening wait times have changed how power plant developers behave. Many developers now “spam the queue,” filing study requests for any project that they could ever conceivably want to build. That has led delays to spiral even further.
The end result of all this spamming is that the total capacity of power plants asking to connect to the grid now exceeds the size of the U.S. grid itself. At the end of 2025, more than 2,000 gigawatts of new generation or storage projects were waiting in interconnection queues, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. The country’s operating power plant fleet is only about 1,400 gigawatts.
To be clear, most of those proposed projects will never be built — they are hypothetical queries submitted by developers who are trying to claim a place in line. Yet even switching on a small set of plants could transform the power grid.
These long wait times aren’t the norm in Texas. In the Lone Star state, it takes less than four years to bring a new plant online.
That’s because new power plants in Texas can hook up to the grid — and start generating power — as soon as the local grid operator completes a more rudimentary engineering and safety study. Then during moments of peak grid congestion, power plants must curtail their own generation, reducing their electricity production to the level that the overall grid can support. While this means that a given solar farm or natural gas plant might not run at full bore all the time, the overall approach gets that plant up and running much sooner, allowing it to sell energy into the grid during most of the year.
Heinrich’s law would order electricity markets and grid operators to make this faster option available to new power plants across the country. It would let power plants opt into receiving a much simpler and faster study, one that checks only that adding the new power plant will be safe for the immediate grid.
A power plant that opts into the new BASED service would still have the option of entering the traditional interconnection queue. Doing so would let it eventually increase its operation over time, paying for grid upgrades so that it can participate in capacity markets and other auctions.
Expanding Texas’s approach to other states could help cut costs for electricity consumers by bringing more energy onto the market faster, Kotwiss said. Even in complicated power markets that include additional auctions — for capacity, for instance, or reliability — energy still makes up most wholesale costs.
It could also help ease the strains on the grid — especially in congested regions like the Mid-Atlantic — caused by artificial intelligence data centers and new factories.
The Texas-inspired technique could help the solar and battery industries, because it keeps a given project’s upfront expenses low and allows those technologies’ low costs to dominate their economics. Solar has boomed in Texas in recent years, and the state now has more utility-scale solar installed than California does.
But the BASED approach would likely help natural gas plants and other forms of newer, cheaper generation, too, because it strengthens new entrants as compared to incumbents. Jacob Mays, a Cornell engineering professor, has studied how slow and wonky interconnection queues can prevent electricity markets from functioning well. The existing interconnection approach used in most of the country “amounts to a significant barrier on new entry to new generation,” he told me, and it has “some anticompetitive impacts.”
Heinrich has said that he plans on introducing more electricity system reforms soon, including a bill to push utilities to adopt technologies that get more capacity out of their existing equipment.
I think it’s an encouraging sign for permitting reform advocates that ranking Senate Democrats are advancing these kinds of technology-neutral power market bills. An eventual deal will likely ultimately rest on Democrats’ willingness to support policy like this — and whether they can strike a deal with Republicans to rewrite parts of long-standing environmental or permitting laws, including the National Historic Preservation Act and Clean Water Act.
But just as importantly, it will depend on Republicans — and the White House — reining in President Trump’s powers to kill energy projects by fiat. With this bill, Democrats are suggesting they’re willing to be, well, a little BASED. Whether the president will join them remains to be seen.
Your mileage may vary — but you’ll probably want to keep the outdoor runs to a minimum.
I became a runner in the spring of 2020. My run streak was my sourdough starter. Those were the Wild West days of respiratory spray warnings, when I’d get dirty looks from strangers even if I passed them while wearing my Under Armour running mask. But I wasn’t about to let a deadly pandemic — much less the wildfire smoke that descended on New York that fall — get in the way of logging my miles.
These days, I am at least a little bit older and wiser. I’ve also learned a lot about wildfire smoke in the interim — how it kills more than 20,000 people in the U.S. every year, how there’s a lot of freaky stuff in it that you don’t want in your body, and how there’s no safe threshold for exposure. But while it’s clearly a bad idea to go for a run right now if you live in Milwaukee, where the air is literally yellow due to the fires in Minnesota and Ontario, it’s maybe less clear if you’re somewhere where the AQI is still only moderate or “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” Do you really, actually need to skip your run in those conditions? Can you just go to the gym instead?
At the end of the day, everyone should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance. But John C. Quindry — a professor of integrative physiology and athletic training at the University of Montana, who described his team as “first to the party” when it comes to understanding the risks of exercising in the smoke — said his research shows that not only is exercising in the smoke hazardous to otherwise healthy individuals, there’s also a class of people for whom it might be extra dangerous, and they might not even know it.
Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Why is exercising in the smoke worse than, say, commuting in the smoke?
If you exercise, you take more breaths per minute, and you take deeper breaths, so the total volume of air you breathe at a given time is greater.
Inhaling wildfire smoke is sometimes compared to smoking cigarettes. Some back-of-the-envelope math puts a run in Chicago this morning at the equivalent of smoking a couple of cigarettes, which sounds pretty minimal. Why take this seriously?
We don’t know for sure that when you exercise outside, it’s equivalent to, in this case, smoking a couple of cigarettes or a pack. We’ve been working for years trying to actually figure out how bad it is, and we just don’t know.
One of the things that complicates this is that not all smoke is created equal. Wildfire smoke in the West is different from wildfire smoke east of the Mississippi, where there are many different types of vegetation. And separately, if a wildfire consumes a house and all the plastics, organic solvents, and things in the roof, that’s certainly worse than just biomass burning — and that is all separate from cigarette smoke. So the chemicals that you inhale are part of it; it’s not just the particulate.
I don’t think it’s inappropriate to say we know how much particulate a filtered cigarette is going to deliver on a puff-by-puff basis and try to equate it to inhaling wood smoke or being downwind of a fire event. Those back-of-the-envelope calculations can make it one-to-one. But what is the impact on health? We don’t know.
Going back to something you said, is smoke in the West or East worse? Why?
We don’t really know, and one reason is that smoke that starts in the West goes east. There are some really good studies that look at the rates of emergency room visits and deaths downwind of fires. You can apply some pretty fancy math, and it’s clearly demonstrated by multiple research groups that whatever the source of the smoke is, there are people who are extra sensitive to it, and they show up in the emergency room more frequently. Tragically, to a smaller degree, they also occasionally die more frequently.
But if we put those data aside and say, “What does the smoke look like from Western biomass versus Eastern biomass?” We know the Western biomass, at least this time of year, is much drier. And when it’s dry, it tends to burn a little “cleaner,” which is to say, if you were to take a certain number of grams of pine wood — which burns fairly cleanly — how much PM 2.5 do you get? You’re going to get a higher PM 2.5 from wet wood. That’s the effect when you start to move to the middle or eastern part of the country. Deciduous trees, even when they’re dry, put out more PM 2.5 unit by unit.
Now, is that worse for the body in the short or long term? We really don’t know. Once you breathe in the smoke, it’s pretty easy to measure what’s in the blood: You just take a blood sample before and after the exposure. You can try to gauge how bad the smoke is by looking at what appears in the blood. Do you get oxidative stress? Do you get inflammation? Is there something else there? Has it changed metabolism?
We also look at exhaled breath condensate. It’s the immune cells, which are the first line of defense when you’re exposed to particulates, that are really sounding the alarm. In some people, that alarm gets sounded more than in others. So we’ve been trying to figure out what are these subtle but important biochemical and physiologic signals? How do they go together? They tell us how bad the smoke is, but it’s taken us years to unfold this story.
I saw in your 2025 study that half of your participants had a heightened response to physiological stress, and that you selected them for that reason. I was hoping you could tell me what a “heightened response to physiological stress” means and why it was important to include those candidates.
This is critical. Let me give you the backstory. When we would do these studies, we would put participants in the lab and burn Western locally sourced pine dried out to 15% humidity. We’d burn it carefully, measure the dose of PM 2.5, and have people breathe it in. We’d conduct studies before and after exercise, whether on a bike or a treadmill, and we varied the intensity and duration. And we didn’t find very much when we looked at the blood and exhaled breath condensate for how well the blood vessels constrict or how reactive the body’s autonomic nervous system was in controlling cardiovascular function. We’d find subtle changes, but statistically speaking, we could never really draw firm conclusions.
But we would notice that, on a person-by-person basis, there would be notable spikes in what we were looking at. We’d see, “Oh, these three or four people really seem to have this notable response, and everybody else really didn’t.” We’d publish our studies and essentially say, “Yeah, we didn’t find much.” It was honest data, and people believe it when you publish negative data that says, “We went through that much trouble, we spent $100,000, and we found nothing.” But we found these people who were a little bit different than the others.
So we’d sit around and spitball. These were normal people, by the way; we were not taking asthmatics or people with [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease]. They were not diabetic. There are people we know full well will have an exaggerated response, and we didn’t look at any of them. We looked at what are called “apparently healthy people” — the people who go to the physician and are told nothing’s wrong with them.
My doctorate was not in exercise science; it was in biomedical science, from a medical school environment. Somewhere along the line, I was exposed to something called the cold pressor test. It has been around longer than both of us. Physicians 80 years ago would have somebody come into their lab or clinic, and they’d say, “Hey, we’re going to put your hand in a bucket of ice water for two minutes and see what that does to your blood pressure.” It almost sounds like a fourth-grade sleepover prank for the first kid to fall asleep.
But we started doing the test, and we took a pretty conservative approach, meaning that if we put someone’s hand in the ice water and their systolic blood pressure — that’s the top number, 120 over 80 is sort of the high end for good blood pressure — and if their systolic number went to at least 20 millimeters of mercury, then we call them cold pressure test positive, or CPT positive.
None of these were people who were hypertensive. They had normal blood pressure. Nothing was wrong with them as far as their medical team could observe. But how many of these [CPT positive] people are sitting around? If you take the average population, 10% to 15% will be cold pressor test positive. We don’t necessarily know if this is a bad thing. It may be contextual, but these are people we can verifiably measure with something as simple as a blood pressure cuff and a bucket of ice water. You can verify their physiology is more reactive within a couple of minutes than someone else’s.
We suspected that if we took these people and then exercised them in the smoke, they would have an exaggerated response compared with people who weren’t CPT positive. And so that’s what we did, and that’s what we found.
That’s fascinating. So the practical takeaway is, unless you’ve done this test yourself, you don’t know if you’re one of these people who’s particularly reactive to wildfire smoke?
You have to always be careful that you don’t make big, broad, blanket applications from one study. We would need to confirm or refute it with additional studies, and that’s a matter of getting grant money and conducting those next-generation investigations.
But here’s something we can glean: We know that people who have an exaggerated response to a cold pressor test are more likely to have hypertension. And they’re more likely to have it earlier — instead of getting high blood pressure at 50, 60, or 70, they’re going to get it at 30 or 40. We know they’re more likely to eventually suffer from heart failure; it seems to develop more in people who have this sort of reactive response. While the cold pressor test response is not predictive in and of itself of anything — future diabetes, heart failure, heart attacks, hypertension, none of that — people with all of those conditions are more likely to be cold pressor test positive.
The way I would take it is, if you are somebody who is not in great health, isn’t fit, or if you have creeping blood pressure or a family history of heart disease, blood pressure, or metabolic derangement like diabetes, you are the kind of person who needs to be a little bit more careful [in the smoke].
Is there an air quality level at which you would tell a young, healthy person “Don’t go for your morning run?”
An educated guess is the best we can do right now. Every study is a brick in the bigger metaphorical wall of understanding this. What we can say is: If you are young and apparently healthy, the threshold would be maybe even up into the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” number. They’re probably okay. But then again, how hard are they working? How long are they outside? If you’re working very hard, your ventilatory rate is much, much higher. And how long are you staying out? What is the long-term impact year after year?
There are epidemiologic studies that can demonstrate that if you’ve lived downwind from major wildfire events for decades, it’s going to impact your health. That’s not debated. But what is the short-term impact? We don’t know.
Indoor air pollution is a major issue during these events, too. Would you advise someone to skip the gym on a particularly smoky day?
When it’s smoky outside, it makes sense to say, “Let’s just stay indoors.” But then the question is, is some of that smoke getting indoors? Sure enough, it is. Then the question is, how much? And the answer is, it depends on the air handling systems in the building; how many people are coming in and out; whether the windows open; how many doors are there; are they left open; what are they using to heat and cool the place; do they have high-volume HEPA filtration; and are they changing that filtration?
But let’s dial back. We have two ends of a spectrum. You have a leaky building. Doors are open. Windows are open. Lots of people are coming in and out. In that scenario, the air inside is only about 20% or 30% better than the air outside. And that’s not very good.
But then let’s go to the other end of the spectrum, to a building that is being kept shut. They’re controlling who can come in and out, and there are two sets of doors to help buffer that. Which is better in a smoky situation? The places with the HEPA filtration, high-volume air turnover, and where they change the filters. But in that case, you’re still going to have 25% of that particulate matter inside, even if you can’t perceive that it’s there. That’s not good news.