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On affordable EVs, the future of NOAA, and tropical birds

Current conditions: Several wildfires are burning near parts of North Carolina that were devastated by Hurricane Helene • Public transportation in Bangkok is free this week as authorities try to reduce toxic smog • There is ice on the surface of the Potomac River near Reagan National Airport, where recovery operations are underway following a tragic plane crash last night.
Tesla reported disappointing Q4 results for 2024 yesterday, with revenue and earnings per share both missing analysts expectations. Revenue came in at $25.71 billion, down 8% compared to the same period in 2023. Earnings per share were $0.73, compared to projections of $0.77. Gross profit margin fell to 13.6% year-over-year, less than the 16.2% forecast. Tesla’s stock dipped on the news, but rebounded after CEO Elon Musk tried to make some reassurances during the earnings call. He said Tesla planned to launch a driverless ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, in June, and expects to begin producing the Cybercab robotaxi fleet in 2026. He talked up the Optimus humanoid robot and the company’s AI and robotics investments. And he said the company plans to start producing “more affordable models” of its EVs in the first half of 2025. (Worth noting that the Cybertruck was not mentioned once on the call.)
If Musk was at all concerned about the fact that his company saw annual sales drop last year for the first time in more than a decade, he didn’t show it, predicting that the next few years will be “epic” for the company. “I see a path for Tesla being the most valuable company in the world, by far, not even close,” he said. “There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined.”
The pep talk helped boost shares in pre-market trading. Some analysts were raving. “Tesla investors are fuelled by optimism around Full Self-Driving and the upcoming affordable model, two key catalysts that could drive Tesla’s next leg of growth,” said Hargreaves Lansdown’s Matt Britzman. Others were less optimistic. “While the long-term narrative remains, the fourth-quarter was a ‘back to earth’ moment for Tesla stock, which has increasingly been disconnected from fundamentals,” cautioned Barclays analyst Dan Levy.
Lee Zeldin was confirmed yesterday as the new administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. He has promised to “restore U.S. energy dominance” and “increase productivity of the EPA.” One of his first jobs, though, will be reviewing the 2009 endangerment finding, a landmark ruling that confirmed greenhouse gases are a danger to public health and gave the EPA authority to regulate those gases. President Trump signed an executive order on January 20 giving the EPA 30 days to examine the “legality and continuing applicability” of this finding. Zeldin has also been told to review the social cost of carbon, which is “the cost of the damages created by one extra ton of carbon dioxide emissions.” Trump’s executive order recommended the metric be eliminated altogether.
Meanwhile, Trump’s Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick had his confirmation hearings yesterday. The questioning from senators touched on the future of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency that provides national weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Lutnick said he was not in favor of dismantling NOAA, nor would he want to see it moved from the Commerce Department into the Interior Department. The Project 2025 roadmap from the Heritage Foundation proposed dismantling NOAA.
The futures of two large proposed fossil fuel projects in the North Sea have been cast into doubt after a Scottish court ruled that they should never have been approved in the first place. Equinor’s Rosebank project would harness oil from the UK’s largest untapped oilfield. Shell’s Jackdaw project would extract natural gas, which Shell claims would heat 1.4 million homes. Activists from Greenpeace and other groups challenged the projects’ approvals after an earlier ruling from the Supreme Court said that such projects must assess and disclose the downstream (Scope 3) emissions impact of burning the fossil fuels they produce, which neither Rosebank’s nor Jackdaw’s developers did. If they want to go ahead with the projects, Shell and Equinor will have to try to get them approved by the government again, this time with all the environmental impacts taken into consideration.
Researchers think they’ve solved a mystery about what’s causing bird populations in untouched areas of the rainforest to decline. Any guesses? Surprise! It’s climate change. In a new study published in the journal Science Advances, the team analyzed bird populations over nearly 30 years and found that more intense dry seasons in the Amazon “significantly” reduced the survival rates for almost all bird species they studied. In fact, they think just 1 degree Celsius of warming reduces the average survival of the tropical birds by 63%. “These findings are especially alarming because they reflect demographic patterns of tropical birds within pristine rainforest, a biome thought to be resilient to the adverse effects of climate change,” the researchers wrote.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans (64%) want to see the government increase fuel-economy standards so that vehicles continue to get more fuel-efficient.
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The facility will power OpenAI’s 10-gigawatt data center in Pike County, Ohio.
The Trump administration aims to complete its environmental review of what would be the biggest fossil fuel power project in the country in just a few months, Heatmap has learned.
This news follows Monday’s announcement from OpenAI that it intends to lease a new 10-gigawatt data center under development in Pike County, Ohio, financed by a mixture of money from a SoftBank subsidiary and the chip company Nvidia. This AI hyperscale facility — known as the PORTS-Pike project — is expected to draw power from the largest gas power facility ever built in the United States, a 9.2-gigawatt facility sited on federal lands that would be built and owned by the Energy Department.
According to OpenAI, the data center campus will be built and started up in phases, with the first 800 megawatts starting construction this year and operational in 2028. That first phase will rely mostly on existing power infrastructure operated by AEP Ohio. How things progress from there will depend at least in part on the permitting and construction timelines for the new power plant.
Building large infrastructure of any kind on federal land or with significant federal investment typically triggers a review under the National Environmental Policy Act. I’ve been curious to find out what kind of review this particular project was going to get, especially after the administration allowed a NEPA review for a solar project to be repurposed for a data center on federal lands earlier this year.
Turns out some information about the PORTS-Pike permitting process is public. Before OpenAI confirmed its involvement with the site, the Trump administration added the project to the federal FAST-41 permitting dashboard, where it posts regular updates on the timeline for getting federal sign-offs. Per the lone federal notice available about the PORTS-Pike project, it will include “several data center buildings and power plants.” That will require at least two federal greenlights: an Army Corps of Engineers permit and approval from the Fish and Wildlife Service, which is being consulted about potential endangered bats in the project area.
The NEPA permitting work for this historically large data center-plus-fossil fuel power project began on July 10 and will conclude on December 23, the day before Christmas Eve, according to the Trump administration’s estimates. This comes after paperwork to begin the review was submitted to the Army Corps in May, per the federal notice — a total timeline of about seven months.
Those familiar with NEPA and the debate over permitting reform will likely be surprised by the speed of this review. It’s moving fast in part because the project is receiving just an Environmental Assessment, the lesser and smaller type of analysis than the EIS. I do not know why the government decided to take this route because the government’s NEPA review determination is not currently public, but I have asked the Army Corps to explain this move.
I’m not sure exactly how air permitting will fit into this NEPA review, as the Clean Air Act isn’t listed as a review step on the federal dashboard. The Ohio EPA has primary authority over permitting projects like these under the Clean Air Act, and I’ve reached out to them to confirm whether PORTS has submitted a permitting application. The state agency’s permitting database does not have any information on air permitting for the project, though it does include reports from third-party consultants confirming wetlands and protected species warranted reviews from the Army Corps and Fish and Wildlife.
Lastly, these timetables are not sacrosanct. Under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, agencies are supposed to complete environmental assessments within one year, but nevertheless they regularly fail to meet them. The White House’s Council on Environmental Quality said in a report to Congress last year that from mid-2023 to mid-2025, the Army Corps was the agency that most often missed these statutory NEPA deadlines for environmental assessments.
Still, news of this speedy review for a priority Trump project is sure to excite pro-data center advocates who see expedited construction as an imperative in the global AI arms race. It’s also guaranteed to put a foul taste in the mouths of environmentalists already frustrated by federal revisions to NEPA regulations they say elide analysis of climate impacts.
What’s undebatable in all this is that, as my colleague Robinson Meyer wrote, the PORTS project could ignite a new era of mega-gas plants. This permitting timeline couldn’t be more important for the future of the data center boom — and the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions.
SB Energy, the SoftBank subsidiary behind the data center project, did not provide comment before publication.
A new front opens in the data center wars.
A series of lawsuits filed in federal court asks a big question – are data center moratoria constitutional?
In early August, data center developer DC Blox sued the city of Nashville in federal court to overturn a zoning moratorium stopping them from building a hyperscale facility adjacent to the city zoo. “The Data Center Moratorium, moreover, is a targeted attack against DC BLOX, in violation of federal constitutional protections,” the suit argued, claiming that it defied the corporation’s due process and equal protection rights.
Around the same time, another developer – Wixom Industrial One – filed a federal lawsuit against the city of Wixom, Michigan, to try and “invalidate the city’s illegal police power moratorium” blocking their data center.
These two cases were far from novel or the first of their kind, and they’re now a fresh front in the battle over hyperscale data centers. At least that’s what some who work on these cases say: In April, attorneys with the law firm Vorys published a “client alert” asserting “many moratoria may be vulnerable to statutory, procedural, and constitutional challenges.” The attorneys advised that constitutional arguments against moratoria “may be stronger where a government singles out data centers without a sound factual basis, treats similar land uses differently without a reasonable basis, or adopts a restriction driven more by political pressure than by defensible planning or regulatory objectives.”
Months later, according to court documents, the Vorys attorneys who authored the alert now represent real estate firm Thor Equities in a federal case against the Ohio city of Urbana, arguing the city’s decision to reject their data center project broke “fundamental protections” under the U.S. Constitution. (Vorys and Thor Equities did not respond to requests for comment.)
It’s unclear how many of these kinds of cases have been filed to date. Data on federal court cases is quite opaque. But legal experts and industry attorneys tell me we should expect them to be on the rise as developers seek whatever tools they can find to get projects built.
“Bringing a lawsuit like this is fairly cheap, something they can do at a relatively low cost, and imposes a real cost on local governments to defend themselves,” said Daniel Metzger, director of the Cities Climate Law Initiative at Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center. “The cases out there will be bellwethers. And if successful, there’ll be a lot more of them.”
What developers probably want looks a lot like Hill County, Texas, where an LLC proposing an $80 million data center project was stymied in May by the state’s first countywide moratorium. (It predated Governor Greg Abbott’s temporary freeze of data center development in Texas by three months.) Within a period of only a few weeks, the LLC sued and the county rescinded the pause on approvals. The case was dropped a month later. Local reports state the county had to afterwards pay the corporation $100,000 in legal fees – a drop in the bucket compared to what a drawn-out court battle would have cost the rural county.
Metzger said whether the companies will win these cases is ultimately not the point – their goal is to win a finished data center, not a judicial ruling. By filing expansive litigation in the national court system, a hypothetical developer can exhaust the coffers of a city or county with legal expenses that are chump change compared to would-be billions in private financing for compute infrastructure.
“These lawsuits may deter some local governments from taking steps to oppose data center development, just because of the cost it would impose on them to defend a lawsuit, even if they know they have a strong legal basis for the action they want to take.”
Those I spoke to in private practice about data center developers’ constitutional arguments agreed with Metzger’s assessment that it’s too early to tell whether the companies will win. Generally, they said, a city or county will win this kind of case if it demonstrates a rational basis for its decision-making and courts typically want to defer to governmental autonomy. The onus will be on the developers to prove a moratorium was meritless – that’s the due process challenge – or unfairly targeted their industry in a way other sectors don’t face, which is the basis of the equal protection claim.
“What they’re saying is in essence that these actions the municipality is taking are arbitrary and capricious, which is one of the sort of catch-all standards,” Thomas Allen, a partner at K&L Gates, told me. “They say the laws lack a rational basis. And then they make equal protection claims, saying data centers are being singled out because of political concerns as opposed to actual things relevant to the legislature’s directive. They’re not basing their decisions on the underlying merits of the project but reacting to political pressure.”
“It’s a reliance question and it’s about the treatment of their projects,” added Laura Morton, an attorney with Ashurst Perkins Coie. “It’s always been important to talk about and engage with communities where your infrastructure is planned. Here, I think this is the developers going in, maybe having conversations, and then suddenly they’re getting a reversal after already receiving these approvals and making investments based off of what the conversations and rules were.”
The likelihood of these constitutional challenges reaching higher courts anytime soon is quite low. It’ll be a long time before we see one of these cases reach a verdict, let alone some kind of appeals process come to fruition. Nevertheless, the new legal ambiguity around these local restrictions is an important new facet of the data center wars, including for developers.
“Companies want to act within the law to get [things] done, so whatever tactics they can do to help get the project over the line that are legal and ethical, they may try those,” Allen told me. “And if that includes the pressure of a lawsuit, that’s a judgment they’ll have to make.”
And more on this week’s conflicts around project development.
1. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania – We reached a new normal in the data center backlash, and it all seems to have started in King of Prussia.
2. Columbia County, Wisconsin – The gubernatorial race in this state is transforming local fights over wind projects into must-watch popcorn fodder for anyone obsessed with the state of the energy transition, or national politics for that matter.
3. Shelby County, Alabama – One quick update on the intervention of John Rich, the country star turned Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners,” in an Alabama Power transmission project: it’s getting a lot more elected officials involved.
4. New Jersey – We try to conclude every Hotspots on a positive note. So this week’s silver lining comes to you from the Garden State, where state regulators have approved more than a dozen agrivoltaics projects.