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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is one signature away from becoming law and drastically changing the economics of renewables development in the U.S. That doesn’t mean decarbonization is over, experts told Heatmap, but it certainly doesn’t help.
What do we do now?
That’s the question people across the climate change and clean energy communities are asking themselves now that Congress has passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would slash most of the tax credits and subsidies for clean energy established under the Inflation Reduction Act.
Preliminary data from Princeton University’s REPEAT Project (led by Heatmap contributor Jesse Jenkins) forecasts that said bill will have a dramatic effect on the deployment of clean energy in the U.S., including reducing new solar and wind capacity additions by almost over 40 gigawatts over the next five years, and by about 300 gigawatts over the next 10. That would be enough to power 150 of Meta’s largest planned data centers by 2035.
But clean energy development will hardly grind to a halt. While much of the bill’s implementation is in question, the bill as written allows for several more years of tax credit eligibility for wind and solar projects and another year to qualify for them by starting construction. Nuclear, geothermal, and batteries can claim tax credits into the 2030s.
Shares in NextEra, which has one of the largest clean energy development businesses, have risen slightly this year and are down just 6% since the 2024 election. Shares in First Solar, the American solar manufacturer, are up substantially Thursday from a day prior and are about flat for the year, which may be a sign of investors’ belief that buyer demand for solar panels will persist — or optimism that the OBBBA’s punishing foreign entity of concern requirements will drive developers into the company’s arms.
Partisan reversals are hardly new to climate policy. The first Trump administration gleefully pulled the rug from under the Obama administration’s power plant emissions rules, and the second has been thorough so far in its assault on Biden’s attempt to replace them, along with tailpipe emissions standards and mileage standards for vehicles, and of course, the IRA.
Even so, there are ways the U.S. can reduce the volatility for businesses that are caught in the undertow. “Over the past 10 to 20 years, climate advocates have focused very heavily on D.C. as the driver of climate action and, to a lesser extent, California as a back-stop,” Hannah Safford, who was director for transportation and resilience in the Biden White House and is now associate director of climate and environment at the Federation of American Scientists, told Heatmap. “Pursuing a top down approach — some of that has worked, a lot of it hasn’t.”
In today’s environment, especially, where recognition of the need for action on climate change is so politically one-sided, it “makes sense for subnational, non-regulatory forces and market forces to drive progress,” Safford said. As an example, she pointed to the fall in emissions from the power sector since the late 2000s, despite no power plant emissions rule ever actually being in force.
“That tells you something about the capacity to deliver progress on outcomes you want,” she said.
Still, industry groups worry that after the wild swing between the 2022 IRA and the 2025 OBBBA, the U.S. has done permanent damage to its reputation as a business-friendly environment. Since continued swings at the federal level may be inevitable, building back that trust and creating certainty is “about finding ballasts,” Harry Godfrey, the managing director for Advanced Energy United’s federal priorities team, told Heatmap.
The first ballast groups like AEU will be looking to shore up is state policy. “States have to step up and take a leadership role,” he said, particularly in the areas that were gutted by Trump’s tax bill — residential energy efficiency and electrification, transportation and electric vehicles, and transmission.
State support could come in the form of tax credits, but that’s not the only tool that would create more certainty for businesses — considering the budget cuts states will face as a result of Trump’s tax bill, it also might not be an option. But a lot can be accomplished through legislative action, executive action, regulatory reform, and utility ratemaking, Godfrey said. He cited new virtual power plant pilot programs in Virginia and Colorado, which will require further regulatory work to “to get that market right.”
A lot of work can be done within states, as well, to make their deployment of clean energy more efficient and faster. Tyler Norris, a fellow at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, pointed to Texas’ “connect and manage” model for connecting renewables to the grid, which allows projects to come online much more quickly than in the rest of the country. That’s because the state’s electricity market, ERCOT, does a much more limited study of what grid upgrades are needed to connect a project to the grid, and is generally more tolerant of curtailing generation (i.e. not letting power get to the grid at certain times) than other markets.
“As Texas continues to outpace other markets in generator and load interconnections, even in the absence of renewable tax credits, it seems increasingly plausible that developers and policymakers may conclude that deeper reform is needed to the non-ERCOT electricity markets,” Norris told Heatmap in an email.
At the federal level, there’s still a chance for, yes, bipartisan permitting reform, which could accelerate the buildout of all kinds of energy projects by shortening their development timelines and helping bring down costs, Xan Fishman, senior managing director of the energy program at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told Heatmap. “Whether you care about energy and costs and affordability and reliability or you care about emissions, the next priority should be permitting reform,” he said.
And Godfrey hasn’t given up on tax credits as a viable tool at the federal level, either. “If you told me in mid-November what this bill would look like today, while I’d still be like, Ugh, that hurts, and that hurts, and that hurts, I would say I would have expected more rollbacks. I would have expected deeper cuts,” he told Heatmap. Ultimately, many of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits will stick around in some form, although we’ve yet to see how hard the new foreign sourcing requirements will hit prospective projects.
While many observers ruefully predicted that the letter-writing moderate Republicans in the House and Senate would fold and support whatever their respective majorities came up with — which they did, with the sole exception of Pennsylvania Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — the bill also evolved over time with input from those in the GOP who are not openly hostile to the clean energy industry.
“You are already seeing people take real risk on the Republican side pushing for clean energy,” Safford said, pointing to Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, who opposed the new excise tax on wind and solar added to the Senate bill, which earned her vote after it was removed.
Some damage has already been done, however. Canceled clean energy investments adds up to $23 billion so far this year, compared to just $3 billion in all of 2024, according to the decarbonization think tank RMI. And that’s before OBBBA hits Trump’s desk.
The start-and-stop nature of the Inflation Reduction Act may lead some companies, states, local government and nonprofits to become leery of engaging with a big federal government climate policy again.
“People are going to be nervous about it for sure,” Safford said. “The climate policy of the future has to be polycentric. Even if you have the political opportunity to make a big swing again, people will be pretty gun shy. You will need to pursue a polycentric approach.”
But to Godfrey, all the back and forth over the tax credits, plus the fact that Republicans stood up to defend them in the 11th hour, indicates that there is a broader bipartisan consensus emerging around using them as a tool for certain energy and domestic manufacturing goals. A future administration should think about refinements that will create more enduring policy but not set out in a totally new direction, he said.
Albert Gore, the executive director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association, was similarly optimistic that tax credits or similar incentives could work again in the future — especially as more people gain experience with electric vehicles, batteries, and other advanced clean energy technologies in their daily lives. “The question is, how do you generate sufficient political will to implement that and defend it?” he told Heatmap. “And that depends on how big of an economic impact does it have, and what does it mean to the American people?”
Ultimately, Fishman said, the subsidy on-off switch is the risk that comes with doing major policy on a strictly partisan basis.
“There was a lot of value in these 10-year timelines [for tax credits in the IRA] in terms of business certainty, instead of one- or two- year extensions,” Fishman told Heatmap. “The downside that came with that is that it became affiliated with one party. It was seen as a partisan effort, and it took something that was bipartisan and put a partisan sheen on it.”
The fight for tax credits may also not be over yet. Before passage of the IRA, tax credits for wind and solar were often extended in a herky-jerky bipartisan fashion, where Democrats who supported clean energy in general and Republicans who supported it in their districts could team up to extend them.
“You can see a world where we have more action on clean energy tax credits to enhance, extend and expand them in a future congress,” Fishman told Heatmap. “The starting point for Republican leadership, it seemed, was completely eliminating the tax credits in this bill. That’s not what they ended up doing.”
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On Crux’s growth, Tesla’s slow ‘death,’ and a carbon storage warning
Current conditions: In the Pacific, Hurricane Kiko has strengthened into a Category 2 storm, and is on track to reach “major storm” status • In the Atlantic, moisture is moving into an area with a lot of dry air, posing a “high risk” of developing into a tropical storm • Northern India is facing intense monsoon winds and deadly landslides.
The White House has taken what The New York Times described as “the extraordinary step” of ordering half a dozen agencies to draft plans to thwart the country’s offshore wind industry. Helming the effort are White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. While the assault on the wind industry has largely taken place at the Department of the Interior, the departments of Transportation and Commerce joined the effort in the past two weeks, as this newsletter reported yesterday. Now the Trump administration is tapping in even more agencies, including those that traditionally have little jurisdiction over marine energy production. The Department of Health and Human Services has begun a study into whether wind turbines emit electromagnetic fields that could damage human health. The Department of Defense, meanwhile, is probing whether the projects pose a risk to national security. “We’re all working together on this issue,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of health and human services, said during a cabinet meeting last week.
Heatmap’s Jael Holzman has been following the administration’s increasingly outlandish efforts to squelch wind projects in her newsletter, The Fight. Last week, discussing the potential redesignation of incidental bird deaths as purposeful under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, she wrote, “It’s worth acknowledging just how bonkers this notion is on first blush.” The move would make operating a wind farm effectively illegal, depriving numerous states of a major source of electricity. “Even I, someone who has broken quite a few eye-popping stories about Trump’s war on renewables, struggle to process the idea of the government truly going there,” she said.
Until earlier this year, clean-energy finance startup Crux was a digital marketplace exclusively for buying and selling tax credits made available by the Inflation Reduction Act. When Republicans in Congress threatened to eliminate tax credit transferability in March, however, the company moved into debt financing, a market that CEO Alfred Johnson told Heatmap’s Katie Brigham was seven times bigger. Now, in an exclusive interview Katie published yesterday, Crux said it’s expanding yet again into the tax and preferred equity markets. “The tax equity market was a $20 billion market before the IRA, and is now a $32 billion to $35 billion market,” Johnson told Katie, citing numbers from the company’s forthcoming mid-year market intelligence report. That’s a 10% to 20% increase over last year. Crux’s overall goal is to make itself a one-stop shop for project financing.
Australian rooftop solar is roughly half the price of Americans pay. Tesla
Tesla’s energy division released a new white paper warning that U.S. regulations were imposing “death by a thousand cuts” on the rooftop solar industry. In a post on LinkedIn, Tesla’s senior director of residential solar Colby Hastings said the “regulatory landscape slows progress, and we need more than one rule change to solve this.”
“Solar insiders have long lamented that residential deployments in the U.S. are too expensive compared to overseas. With the passage of the OBBB and tax credits expiring, it is imperative that we take a hard look at how the industry will navigate the next decade,” she wrote. “We must ensure that consumers have competitive choices for energy. This means affordable solar and storage at home.” Among the changes she proposed were enacting national code standards “that simplify rules, keep pace with hardware innovation, and limit regional variation.” She also called for reducing tariff on imported components to lower the cost of hardware. “Bottom line — we see an opportunity to cut ~40% from the cost stack, reducing average solar + storage installation from > $5/W today to ~$3/W.”
More than 85 climate scientists signed onto a line-by-line critique of the Department of Energy’s recent report sowing doubt over the severity and causes of rising global temperatures. The analysis pointed out that the federal report was written by a “tiny team of hand-picked contrarians” known for “often writing outside their areas of expertise.” The controversial government study had “no peer review of transparency,” they wrote, “unlike legitimate assessments,” and relied on “cherry-picked evidence and miscitations” to reach a “predetermined outcome.”
It’s far from the only criticism Secretary of Energy Chris Wright is attracting. In a Tuesday post on X, Wright claimed that “if you wrapped the entire planet in a solar panel, you would only be producing 20% of global energy,” arguing that “one of the biggest mistakes politicians can make is equating the ELECTRICITY with ENERGY!” A community note X users appended to the agency chief’s post pointed out that this wildly undercounted the potential to capture energy from the sun, which covers the planet in enough solar potential to meet “3,000x global energy use.” Yet even that failed to capture how “funny and sad” Wright’s “silly and unsophisticated” post really was, said electricity analyst David Fishman. In particular, Fishman noted, Wright seemed to underestimate how much total energy usage worldwide could be converted to electricity. “That's thinking like a guy who spent his whole career drilling for gas, but never learned much about physics, electricity, industry, or energy systems,” he wrote. “Really not what you want to see from someone in such a position.”
The amount of carbon emissions that the world can safely store is just a 10th of industry estimates, according to a Bloomberg writeup of a new study in the journal Nature. Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Imperial College London found “a prudent global limit” of around 1.46 trillion tons of CO2 that can be safely stored in geologic formations. That’s “almost 10 times smaller than estimates proposed by industry that have not considered risks to people and the environment.” Utilizing all the practical areas to store carbon would curb global warming by 0.7 degrees Celsius, compared to industry estimates of 6 degrees Celsius or higher.
Cooling data centers consumes a huge amount of electricity, and nearly half of that energy is lost as low-temperature waste heat that’s simply vented into the air. But a new study from Rice University found a way to close the loops and channel that heat into more electricity. “There’s an invisible river of warm air flowing out of data centers,” Laura Schaefer, the chair of the mechanical engineering program at Rice and co-author of the paper, said in a press release. “Our question was: Can we nudge that heat to a slightly higher temperature with sunlight and convert a lot more of it into electricity? The answer is yes, and it’s economically compelling.”
Climate policy strategist Justin Guay has a populist pitch for our warming world.
There’s a famous saying in management circles: Culture eats strategy for breakfast.
In a warming world marked by populist politics, the climate equivalent might be: Culture eats climate policy for breakfast.
As air conditioning becomes the latest front in the culture wars, climate hawks would be wise to avoid the culture war trap being set. Instead we should meet the world where it is with a simple, culturally relevant, and popular approach that keeps people cool on a warming planet — a heat pump populism for the masses.
As the climate warms, increasing numbers of cities, regions, and countries are being faced with an uncomfortable new reality — their built environments weren’t built for this environment. Heat waves like the “once in a millennium” Pacific Northwest heat dome of 2021 or this year’s “warmest summer on record” for the UK — which has kept track of such things since 1884 — are driving the need for air conditioning in places it hasn’t historically been required.
The new air conditioning units installed in response to these heat waves drive up already significant electricity consumption — and greenhouse gas emissions in the process. Air conditioning emissions alone account for 3% of global emissions, and are projected to grow significantly as AC unit sales triple by 2050. In China, which also saw heat records fall this summer, air conditioner sales doubled from June to July.
The climate community has responded with concern about the climate doom loop this represents. The impacts of climate change — most pertinently in this case, increased temperatures — unleash more air conditioning usage, which only exacerbates the underlying problem of climate change, itself.
But there’s another, far more sinister doom loop climate hawks should fear — a doom loop that undermines the political resilience necessary to respond to climate change at all.
This doom loop begins with climate impacts that directly harm average people, generating resentment towards existing institutions — notably the ruling government — that anti-climate populist politicians seize on to aid their rise to power. That in turn leads to anticlimate policymaking that exacerbates the underlying problem, climate change, unleashing yet more impacts. And on and on the cycle goes.
Take for example what happened following the historic flooding in Spain’s Valencia region last fall. Rather than looking to address the underlying causes of the catastrophe, including climate change, populist anti-climate parties seized on the perceived inability of mainstream politics to deal with the situation. They instead sought to sow distrust and climate denial by painting the government as inept and incapable of helping people in their time of need, thereby bolstering their case to overthrow the powers that be.
That appears to be a page from the same playbook populists all over Europe are now using after heat waves gripped a region where air conditioning use is projected to grow by 40% by 2050, compared to the historical average from the last decade. From France to the UK, anti-climate populists are seeking to paint the political left — particularly climate-minded parties — as out of touch radicals bent on denying the sweaty masses their relief. As Nicolas Bouzou, the French liberal economist and essayist, put it recently: “The left is against air conditioners, and the right is in favor.”
In other words, the anti-climate right is actively laying a climate doom loop trap — and it appears that at least some members of the climate community are walking right into it. In the UK, 58% of Green Party voters support discouraging AC installation to cope with heat waves. Meanwhile, in France, the head of the French Green party reportedly “scoffed” at Marine Le Pen’s proposal to deploy air conditioners as part of her policy platform, instead, he offered more energy-efficient buildings as a solution. France’s left-wing daily Liberation called AC “an environmental aberration that must be overcome.”
But what if climate hawks attempted some political jiu jitsu instead? What if we decided to make some lemonade out of these lemons? What if, and hear me out, we decided to scold a little less and push abundance a little more? What if, in a hotter world, we stood for something cool?
May I present: the humble heat pump, otherwise known as a two-way AC, i.e. just the opportunity climate advocates should be looking for. The heat pump is essentially an AC unit that can heat as well as cool. Most AC companies don’t unlock the heating capability because it adds to their manufacturing costs — generally $200 to $500 — to do so. If that modest cost were not an issue, AC manufacturers could not only help deploy desperately needed relief from extreme temperatures and rising costs, they could also deploy cheaper, clean and fossil fuel-free heating at the same time.
That’s the argument Nate Adams and the team at the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program — otherwise known as Clasp, a nonprofit organization focused on improving the efficiency of everyday appliances and equipment — made when they called for a supply-side intervention to make heat pumps affordable and universally available. Rather than subsidizing heat pump purchases and hoping homeowners take advantage, we should incentivize AC manufacturers and distributors to exclusively sell two-way air conditioners moving forward — no more one-way AC.
Under such a policy, participating manufacturers or distributors would receive a few-hundred-dollar incentive for every two-way AC (i.e. heat pump) sold. That subsidy would decline over time as manufacturers convert production lines and costs come down. Crucially, any participating company would have to commit to stop producing one-way ACs. In addition, governments and participating manufacturers would be wise to invest in training and education programs for HVAC contractors to speed deployment and support consumer education.
The Clasp team calculates that a program like this would cost somewhere between $3 billion to $12 billion in the United States and result in 45 million new two-way ACs deployed, which would save citizens $27 billion in direct energy costs and $80 billion in indirect societal benefits — such as, yes, mitigating climate change.
As I’ve argued previously alongside Nate, the shift in policy focus from consumers to manufacturers and suppliers is really, really important. Most AC replacement purchases are driven by existing equipment breaking down — and now by historic heat waves setting in — which causes panic-buying. That almost always leads people to buy the first replacement they can find, and that’s almost never a heat pump.
If we instead incentivize manufacturers to ensure that heat pumps and only heat pumps are on hardware and home goods store shelves and make it easy for average people to buy and install them by educating HVAC installers around their benefits then we solve this problem. Heat pumps become the default.
Now map that policy onto the political landscape. Imagine that instead of climate-oriented politicians being perceived as out of touch radicals who want to ban air conditioning, we have political leaders using the next inevitable heat wave to announce a new policy of abundant air conditioning for all. That alone won’t win the culture war — it will still require savvy salesmanship to make the pitch land with voters, not to mention digital acumen of a sort the left seems woefully behind in developing. But the ingredients are there, if only our leaders are willing and able to seize on them.
Ironically, as wildfires now ravage Spain, the country’s center-left prime minister is now calling for a national climate pact. His call is a beacon of hope that the climate doom loop can indeed be broken by forward-looking politicians who realize that we must address the underlying cause of these impacts before it’s too late.
It’s time others follow his lead and use these moments of visceral climate impact to drive climate policy forward with an unabashedly populist policy agenda. That’s how we take the bite out of the air conditioning culture war before it even begins. And maybe, just maybe, it’s how we begin to reclaim our politics.
In a Heatmap exclusive interview, CEO Alfred Johnson discusses the clean energy financing marketplace’s latest big move.
Crux is expanding again.
Until earlier this year, the clean energy finance startup was a digital marketplace exclusively for buying and selling tax credits unlocked by the Inflation Reduction Act. But in March, as Republicans in Congress briefly threatened to eliminate tax credit transferability, the company moved into debt financing, a market Crux CEO Alfred Johnson told me later on is more than seven times bigger.
Now, in its quest to become a one-stop shop for efficient project financing, Crux has told Heatmap that it’s growing once more into the tax and preferred equity markets, two additional funding avenues for clean energy projects that could certainly stand to be organized, standardized, and digitized as they grow in importance. “The tax equity market was a $20 billion market before the IRA, and is now a $32 billion to $35 billion market,” Johnson told me, citing numbers from the company’s forthcoming mid-year market intelligence report. That’s a 10% to 20% increase over last year.
Johnson said that Crux’s platform will ameliorate some of the complexity and high costs that have historically made tax equity financing so difficult to access. In these deals, clean energy developers partner with tax equity investors, typically banks, which provide them with cash in exchange for an equity stake in their project — and the associated tax benefits.
In one way, it’s a funny move for Crux. Before the IRA passed, tax equity was essentially the only way for project developers with low tax burdens to monetize their credits, and transferability itself was billed as a solution to these kludgy deals. But even though the transferable tax credit marketplace has proven to be a valuable option for many developers, there are reasons why some still prefer tax equity financing.
For one, tax equity partnerships can actually be the cheapest form of project financing for large developers overall. That’s in large part because tax equity is such a scarce but critical form of capital that if a developer can secure it, they can often then raise other forms of funding, such as bridge loans, more easily. Tax equity deals also serve to establish the fair market value of a project, which thus ensures that project developers can maximize the value of their tax benefits.
Lastly, Johnson explained that tax equity financing allows project developers to capture the value of a tax benefit known as “accelerated depreciation,” in which a large percent of a project’s asset costs can be deducted in the first few years of operation as opposed to evenly over the project’s useful life. Unlike with tax credit transferability, there’s no direct way for developers to monetize accelerated depreciation benefits other than via tax equity partnerships.
These types of partnerships will, in all likelihood, still only make sense for well-capitalized projects deploying proven technologies such as solar, wind, and storage. More novel tech such as advanced nuclear, long-duration storage, or next-generation geothermal will probably continue to rely primarily on the tax credit transfer market. But as Johnson told me, “for the developers that have really strong financials, have large projects, are able to secure tax equity, that is often preferred as a way of monetizing their credits to selling directly in the transfer market.”
At the same time, the markets for tax equity and credits are increasingly converging. That’s because it’s become more common for tax equity investors — or the partnership itself — to sell the credits they now hold into the transfer market, Johnson told me. This provides the investor or partnership with immediate liquidity, which can then be invested into other projects. This type of hybrid structure has thus far made up over 60% of tax equity commitments in 2025, according to the company’s mid-year market report.
Crux is also expanding into preferred equity, a type of financing that allows project developers to raise additional capital closer to the start of commercial operations. Then, once operation commences, preferred equity investors typically receive fixed, priority returns before any distributions are made to common equity holders. This structure reduces risks for preferred investors, giving them a more predictable income stream. It’s a smaller market than tax equity financing, but still an important piece of the puzzle, Johnson said.
And then there’s — what else? — artificial intelligence.
As developers and investors that have used Crux’s tax credit marketplace “graduate” into new, often more complex forms of project financing such as tax and preferred equity, Johnson told me there are “huge opportunities” to make these deals more efficient. As he sees it, this will involve integrating the company’s current workflow management and documentation tools with AI language models designed to streamline document organization and synthesis, along with other administrative processes. The idea is to save time “without any deterioration in the quality of the underwriting,” Johnson said.
These latest expansionary moves will be far from Crux’s last, Johnson told me. There’s all sorts of equity financing Crux could theoretically help to facilitate, along with transactions between equipment manufacturers and project developers or project developers and utilities.
It’s all on the table, Johnson said. “I think we will continue to find that this mix of liquidity, efficiency, and intelligence makes sense in lots of different categories.”