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Q&A

Trump’s Hydrogen Mystery

A conversation with Frank Wolak of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

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Frank Wolak.
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We’re joined today by Frank Wolak, CEO of perhaps the most crucial D.C. trade group for all things hydrogen: the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association. The morning after Election Day we chatted about whether Trump 2.0 will be as receptive as members of Congress have been to hydrogen and the IRA’s tax credit for producing the fuel. Let’s look inside his crystal ball, shall we?

Simply put, will president-elect Donald Trump keep the IRA’s 45V tax credit in place?

So a couple things there. First, the production tax credit still has to be finalized and what they do about the tax credits, if anything, is a function of whether the Biden administration issues final guidance.

If they issue final guidance, then what that guidance says will determine what kind of reaction the Trump administration may have, whether to adjust it or tweak it.

The second thing: I think the tax credits fit into a question of the IRA broadly and hydrogen specifically. The Trump administration is going to be looking at the entirety of the IRA. There’s the question of what pushback hydrogen has in this administration and if it’s viewed as valuable or important or secondary, tertiary to other things. And I think we’ve yet to see that in the form of any platform.

So Trump’s view on hydrogen is a mystery then – how will that uncertainty impact hydrogen projects in development today?

The uncertainty that has been experienced by this industry predates the election outcome. The long wait for guidance has definitely slowed down the amount of investment. They’ve put many things on hold. This is not a secret.

What I’ll say is, the ability to regroup and fulfill the expectations that this industry had two or three years ago is hugely dependent on the outcome of the tax credit.

What do you think we’ll see companies do in this information vacuum? Will we see them double down on supporting the credit or potentially get out of hydrogen since it’s an emerging, nascent technology?

The doubling down on the tax credit depends on what the guidance looks like.

If the guidance looks flexible, the question is: how do you take that flexibility and make sure the Trump administration continues it and sees it as valuable or vital?

If the tax credit becomes rigid and stays rigid in the Biden administration, you’ll have a two step process – to unwind the rigidity and then also encourage the Trump administration to see the merits. If the guidance stays as stated, the work is harder.

The degree to which industry continues to make investments and says, “hey, we’re all in,” is a function of how these tax credits emerged. Are they going to really keep fighting and to keep the momentum going, or are the [credits] so limited that companies go, “look this is going to be very very hard to overcome in the U.S. so we’re going to take our investment elsewhere.”

You think we might see companies dip out of the hydrogen space over the credit’s outcome?

Mature long term players who are multinationals … are remaining extremely positive. They may adjust the sequence of their investments but they’re in this because they’re in hydrogen and want to be in this market as much as possible.

But those who saw this as an opportunity to come in and take advantage of tax credits are having those reactions of, “Should I invest? Do I look [at it] positively?” And that’s probably natural.

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Hotspots

Meta Data Center Federal Pipeline Review Due Early Next Year

And more of the week’s top fights around development.

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The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Richland Parish, Louisiana – Gird your loins for the coming fight over the Meta Hyperion data center’s gas pipeline.

  • On Wednesday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission laid out plans for an environmental assessment of the Entergy pipeline for the Meta data center under the National Environmental Policy Act and stated it’ll be issued in early January 2027. Federal agencies have been ordered by the panel to complete any remaining decisions on authorizations by April.
  • The decision to do an environmental assessment under NEPA will be controversial. The Sierra Club filed comments to FERC stating they wanted an environmental impact statement instead that took into account the environmental impacts of the data center being fed by the pipeline, as well as a review of the project’s cumulative impacts, as the activist group said they’re explicitly linked to the data center’s operations. “The power stations and data center are not remote or speculative developments unrelated to the proposed action,” their comments read.
  • This is quite similar to what’s playing out with the Green Chile pipeline in New Mexico for Oracle and OpenAI’s Project Jupiter, which we recently explained could turn into litigation with high stakes for future gas pipelines linked to data centers. But to me, this conflict with Meta feels like it has more at stake for this individual project, as it’s playing out while construction on gas power plants for the data center has been underway for almost a year after earlier being blessed by state regulators.
  • I asked Sierra Club what could happen next. Eric Huber, one of their managing attorneys, told me on Thursday, “I heard the EA is expected in January, but we are in wait and see mode and will decide on further steps when it comes out.” Meta and Entergy did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Spartanburg County, South Carolina – I have one last data center race to tell you to watch on Tuesday: South Carolina’s 4th, on the northern rim of the state.

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Plus

Is the Election Really About Data Centers?

Talking with Kevin Gundersen, the head of public affairs for Digital Realty.

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Kevin Gundersen
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This week’s conversation is with Kevin Gundersen, head of public affairs for data center developer Digital Realty. On Wednesday, Digital Realty released a fascinating poll as part of Infrastructure for America, a pro-data center organization that also includes Compass, Vantage Data Centers, and QTS. The poll pushed back on the idea that we’re currently in the middle of a “data center election”; instead, it found most voters are not expected to choose their national elected officials based on a politician’s stance on data centers.

I reached out to folks involved in the poll's release, and they put me in touch with Gundersen, whom I’ve met before and consider to be a straight shooter. He accepted my invitation to do a candid hot-seat chat about the findings, his thoughts on all the data center attack ads, and whether his industry’s actually recovering any ground with the American people.

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Spotlight

Trump Hasn’t Been Advancing New Wind Farms During Permitting Talks

Only upgrades for pre-existing wind projects have been approved.

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Donald Trump.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

In September, the Trump administration told a reporter that the president directed the Pentagon to finally process wind projects through routine airspace approvals as required under a court order. By doing this, it created the appearance of real headway and good faith in talks with Democrats in Congress on energy permitting legislation before the November midterm elections.

But the White House’s assurances are not what they seem.

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