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Q&A

Trump’s Hydrogen Mystery

A conversation with Frank Wolak of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

Frank Wolak.
Heatmap Illustration

We’re joined today by Frank Wolak, CEO of perhaps the most crucial D.C. trade group for all things hydrogen: the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association. The morning after Election Day we chatted about whether Trump 2.0 will be as receptive as members of Congress have been to hydrogen and the IRA’s tax credit for producing the fuel. Let’s look inside his crystal ball, shall we?

Simply put, will president-elect Donald Trump keep the IRA’s 45V tax credit in place?

So a couple things there. First, the production tax credit still has to be finalized and what they do about the tax credits, if anything, is a function of whether the Biden administration issues final guidance.

If they issue final guidance, then what that guidance says will determine what kind of reaction the Trump administration may have, whether to adjust it or tweak it.

The second thing: I think the tax credits fit into a question of the IRA broadly and hydrogen specifically. The Trump administration is going to be looking at the entirety of the IRA. There’s the question of what pushback hydrogen has in this administration and if it’s viewed as valuable or important or secondary, tertiary to other things. And I think we’ve yet to see that in the form of any platform.

So Trump’s view on hydrogen is a mystery then – how will that uncertainty impact hydrogen projects in development today?

The uncertainty that has been experienced by this industry predates the election outcome. The long wait for guidance has definitely slowed down the amount of investment. They’ve put many things on hold. This is not a secret.

What I’ll say is, the ability to regroup and fulfill the expectations that this industry had two or three years ago is hugely dependent on the outcome of the tax credit.

What do you think we’ll see companies do in this information vacuum? Will we see them double down on supporting the credit or potentially get out of hydrogen since it’s an emerging, nascent technology?

The doubling down on the tax credit depends on what the guidance looks like.

If the guidance looks flexible, the question is: how do you take that flexibility and make sure the Trump administration continues it and sees it as valuable or vital?

If the tax credit becomes rigid and stays rigid in the Biden administration, you’ll have a two step process – to unwind the rigidity and then also encourage the Trump administration to see the merits. If the guidance stays as stated, the work is harder.

The degree to which industry continues to make investments and says, “hey, we’re all in,” is a function of how these tax credits emerged. Are they going to really keep fighting and to keep the momentum going, or are the [credits] so limited that companies go, “look this is going to be very very hard to overcome in the U.S. so we’re going to take our investment elsewhere.”

You think we might see companies dip out of the hydrogen space over the credit’s outcome?

Mature long term players who are multinationals … are remaining extremely positive. They may adjust the sequence of their investments but they’re in this because they’re in hydrogen and want to be in this market as much as possible.

But those who saw this as an opportunity to come in and take advantage of tax credits are having those reactions of, “Should I invest? Do I look [at it] positively?” And that’s probably natural.

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Spotlight

Democrats’ Growing Divide Over Data Centers

It’s pause vs pause-nots.

Data center protests.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The American climate movement is beginning to look a lot like AI doomers versus the techno-optimists. It’s a dynamic that is winning local bans – and very little else for now.

On one side, you’ve got the left-leaning insurgent grassroots movement against data centers. In many cases this push is in the name of climate action and environmental justice, with activists citing the risks of pollution from gas-fired power and the potential for strain on existing electricity supplies. But in many, many other cases, this movement is decidedly not about climate action; instead it’s a movement addressing everything from energy prices and power over large corporations to AI use generally.

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The United States.
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1. Jefferson County, Alabama – A law firm is alleging that police in the city of Birmingham retaliated against a woman for suing developers of a data center. It might just be a wake-up call for data center developers.

  • Earlier this month, two individuals each with homes next to a proposed 300-megawatt data center in Birmingham filed a class action lawsuit against developer Nebius and the city of Birmingham. The lawsuit alleges “multiple independently fatal zoning violations” rooted in the city’s decision to let Nebius’s project move forward while also finalizing a moratorium, and claims the city has granted approvals in violation of the existing moratorium.
  • On May 18, days after the lawsuit was filed, lawyers for one of the individuals – Madelyn Greene – wrote the Birmingham Police Department stating officers pulled her over while driving through the proposed project site without any lawful reason. According to the letter, which I obtained and was first reported by AL.com, the officers claimed she was harassing police and started filming her while in her car. When she took her own phone out, the officers “abruptly broke off contact, returned to their vehicles, and left the scene.”
  • The letter concludes the traffic stop “timing and location are not coincidental.” It warned that any additional attempts by city police to “stop, detain, surveil, follow, photograph, intimidate, or otherwise harass” people involved in the lawsuit will result in requests for restraining orders.
  • Situations like these vividly illustrate the problems around security forces and large infrastructure projects. Activists fighting the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada were monitored for years. Conflicts between police and oil pipeline protestors are common and complaints about surveillance abound.
  • I feel compelled to say that data center developers and large tech firms would be wise to coordinate with local police on matters such as these – not just for their own benefit but for that of the public. It’s one thing when protesters are arrested at a hearing, but wholly another when members of the public are concerned voicing dissent will lead to retaliation. All that’ll do is aggravate the opposition further.
  • Nebius did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Mason County, Kentucky – This county is the site of yet another eminent domain debacle and I suggest you pay attention to it because it’s now represented by an outgoing congressman with nothing left to lose: Thomas Massie.

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What’s Bothering a Free Market Wonk About the Data Center Boom

A conversation with Travis Fisher of the Cato Institute.

Travis Fisher.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Travis Fisher, an energy policy analyst with the Cato Institute and one of my favorite people to chop it up with on Energy Twitter. I reached out to Fisher for a conversation about how he’s approaching the data center boom as a free market-minded wonk at a time when other figures on the so-called Right are calling for strict regulations on the sector. What I learned is that folks like Fisher are concerned about the scale of the buildout too, but their ideas and approaches wildly differ from the Tucker Carlsons of the world.

As always, our conversation was edited for length and clarity.

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