How Democrats Are Trying to Trump-Proof Their Big Climate Law

The Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law, is the biggest investment in clean energy in American history. It is also in danger. In January, the Trump administration and a GOP Congress will take over the federal government — and they have made a variety of promises about how they’ll disrupt the law, ranging from full repeal to a more “surgical” reform approach.

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse talk with Kristina Costa, who has worked since 2022 to implement the IRA’s climate provisions at the White House. She joins us to discuss what went right about the Biden administration’s rush to implement the law, why state government capacity is holding back Democratic policy goals, and why the federal government needs more tools to support energy innovation if it wants to keep up with China. She also discusses how the administration is trying to Trump-proof the law. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Robinson Meyer: What do you hear from the companies? And I guess from your vantage point, are they beginning to do the lobbying work you feel like they should be doing to protect the parts of the law that are working?

Kristina Costa: I think they are. You know, we hear a lot of anxiety, as you can imagine, which is —

Meyer: Theme of this period.

Costa: Theme of this period is that there’s a lot of anxiety. And our hope is, and our belief is that they will turn that anxiety into action, in terms of educating members of Congress about how the law actually works and how it is underpinning the investments that they’re making.

And I think, you know, to take a step back and talk about policy for a little bit, one of the things, I think, that is not well understood in the rhetoric about how the different pieces of the Inflation Reduction Act actually work together is that — you know, we have provisions that are incentivizing investments in manufacturing, and people are generally pretty excited about that. We also have provisions that are incentivizing adoption of the technologies that are being manufactured. And in some cases people are pretty excited about that, and in other cases, it has been turned into a bit of a political cudgel. But the fact of the matter is that those two things are pretty interdependent.

So, for instance, we have what is called the 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credit, and that is largely a per-unit tax credit that goes to manufacturers of a specified list of clean energy components, including batteries for electric vehicles, as well as for grid storage. And we have seen just gangbusters investment in the EV battery space since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. It has set the United States up to be an EV battery manufacturing powerhouse. And this is, of course, an area of importance for the clean energy transition. It is also an area of incredible importance for U.S. energy security, given the currently dominant market position that China plays, that China holds in the EV battery supply chain.

And I think people generally think this is pretty good. But one of the reasons besides the 45X credit just providing a strong, straight-up incentive to invest in the United States and make these things in the United States is that the much-maligned 30D new clean vehicle tax credit that provides a subsidy to individuals to buy electric vehicles that are made in the United States has a bunch of pretty stringent requirements about the sourcing of batteries and of critical minerals contained within those vehicles in order to be eligible for the tax credit. And so you have both incentives to manufacture, but you also basically have incentives to provide support for the offtake of what those manufacturers are actually producing.

Those two things go hand in hand, and I don’t think that is well understood in the political rhetoric.

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.

As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.

Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.