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Politics

What If AI Can’t Solve Climate Change?

At the end of the day, there will always be politics.

A robot in flames.
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Today’s internet is inundated with “AI slop,” and mocking the often bizarre outputs produced of language models (recall the Google AI that recommended making pizza with glue) has become an online pastime. Yet artificial intelligence advocates have not been deterred from their claims of a utopian future made possible by AI. Whatever problems we face — including climate change — one day, we are told, they will be solved by the magical power of computing. The breathless headlines have been around for years: “How artificial intelligence can tackle climate change”; “How AI could power the climate breakthrough the world needs”; “Here are 10 ways AI could help fight climate change”; “9 ways AI is helping tackle climate change.”

Like much of the hype around AI, the specifics aren’t necessarily wrong. AI could help us understand the impacts of climate change more comprehensively, and can be used to locate solutions to particular challenges in technology and manufacturing. But as the extraordinary energy demands AI will impose on our system are coming into focus, and as some of the most important corporate AI leaders join hands with what could be the most anti-environment administration in history, the big picture problem becomes even clearer. Artificial intelligence can’t solve climate change because doing so will always require passing through the bottleneck of politics.

For those hoping to bring us to a glorious future guided by superintelligent computers, claiming that AI will solve climate change has become more urgent as the energy demands of the technology increase. Google reported last summer that since 2019, its emissions have increased by 48% because of its use of AI. The International Energy Agency projects that by 2026, AI will consume 1,000 terawatt-hours of electricity, as much as the entire nation of Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy. Countries around the world are rushing to develop their own AI systems (the surprising capabilities of a new Chinese system called DeepSeek just sent the stock market tumbling), any of which could entail the same scale of energy demand as the ones created by American tech giants.

But imagine if we could snap our fingers and make that problem disappear? That’s what OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggested in a recent interview with Bloomberg. “Fusion’s going to work,” he said when asked about AI’s energy demands, going on to say that “quickly permitting fusion reactors” is the answer — particularly those made by Helion Energy, a company whose executive chairman is, you guessed it, Sam Altman.

Of course, Helion has no fusion reactors to permit yet because no one does. Fusion’s promise of essentially limitless clean energy at low cost is tantalizing, which is why billions of public and private dollars have been invested in fusion research. But while technological gains are being made, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how long it will take until fusion can reach commercial scale. It might be 10 years, or 20, or 50 or 100 — no one knows for sure.

But blithely insisting that incredibly complex problems will be solved easily and quickly is a specialty of tech barons. And if AI itself finds the solution to our energy problems? Even better.

There’s no question that AI is improving at a rapid pace, even if there are some things it’s still terrible at. And when it comes to climate, over time it will probably help produce incremental gains across a wide number of areas, from manufacturing efficiency to urban planning. But the more dramatic and consequential any idea is — whether it comes from AI or not — the more likely it is that it will have to move through the political process in order to be implemented.

And that’s where AI can’t help. A machine learning system can’t tell you the precise formula to please a recalcitrant senator or navigate a hundred city councils with different ideas about what kinds of clean energy projects they’ll allow in their towns. Politics is about people — their goals, their incentives, their fears, their prejudices — and it’s far too messy to be solved with numeric calculation, even by the most powerful AI system imaginable.

Let’s say that a year from now, an AI came up with both an entirely new way to design a fusion reactor and a revolutionary battery design that offered longer and denser storage, together solving so many of the problems scientists and engineers struggle with today. How would the fossil fuel industry react to this development? Would it say, “Oh well, oil and gas had a pretty good run, but now the world can move on”?

Of course not. It would use its extraordinary resources to battle against their competition, just as they always have. That’s what it did in the last election cycle, when it spent $450 million on campaigns and lobbying to preserve the industry and the riches it generates.

And while many hoped that the Republican Party would moderate its views on climate, at the moment it looks more like it is going backward — not just looking to undo every bit of progress made under the Biden administration, but also undermining renewable energy wherever it can. President Trump seems determined to destroy wind energy in America, which has been growing rapidly in recent years. Whether he succeeds will be up to the political system, not the inherent usefulness of a millennium-old technology.

In politics, good ideas don’t always win out. Who has power and what they are after will always matter a great deal, as Trump and the people he is bringing into the federal government are showing us right now.

AI can be a tool that helps us reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change; the fact that its boosters regularly offer absurdly optimistic timelines for societal transformation doesn’t mean the underlying technology isn’t remarkable. But “solving” climate change isn’t merely a technological problem. It will always be a political one as well, and even the smartest piece of software won’t solve it for us.

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Bruce Westerman, the Capitol, a data center, and power lines.
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After many months of will-they-won’t-they, it seems that the dream (or nightmare, to some) of getting a permitting reform bill through Congress is squarely back on the table.

“Permitting reform” has become a catch-all term for various ways of taking a machete to the thicket of bureaucracy bogging down infrastructure projects. Comprehensive permitting reform has been tried before but never quite succeeded. Now, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House are taking another stab at it with the SPEED Act, which passed the House Natural Resources Committee the week before Thanksgiving. The bill attempts to untangle just one portion of the permitting process — the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA.

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And more on the week’s biggest fights around renewable energy.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Benton County, Washington – The Horse Heaven wind farm in Washington State could become the next Lava Ridge — if the Federal Aviation Administration wants to take up the cause.

  • On Monday, Dan Newhouse, Republican congressman of Washington, sent a letter to the FAA asking them to review previous approvals for Horse Heaven, claiming that the project’s development would significantly impede upon air traffic into the third largest airport in the state, which he said is located ten miles from the project site. To make this claim Newhouse relied entirely on the height of the turbines. He did not reference any specific study finding issues.
  • There’s a wee bit of irony here: Horse Heaven – a project proposed by Scout Clean Energy – first set up an agreement to avoid air navigation issues under the first Trump administration. Nevertheless, Newhouse asked the agency to revisit the determination. “There remains a great deal of concern about its impact on safe and reliable air operations,” he wrote. “I believe a rigorous re-examination of the prior determination of no hazard is essential to properly and accurately assess this project’s impact on the community.”
  • The “concern” Newhouse is referencing: a letter sent from residents in his district in eastern Washington whose fight against Horse Heaven I previously chronicled a full year ago for The Fight. In a letter to the FAA in September, which Newhouse endorsed, these residents wrote there were flaws under the first agreement for Horse Heaven that failed to take into account the full height of the turbines.
  • I was first to chronicle the risk of the FAA grounding wind project development at the beginning of the Trump administration. If this cause is taken up by the agency I do believe it will send chills down the spines of other project developers because, up until now, the agency has not been weaponized against the wind industry like the Interior Department or other vectors of the Transportation Department (the FAA is under their purview).
  • When asked for comment, FAA spokesman Steven Kulm told me: “We will respond to the Congressman directly.” Kulm did not respond to an additional request for comment on whether the agency agreed with the claims about Horse Heaven impacting air traffic.

2. Dukes County, Massachusetts – The Trump administration signaled this week it will rescind the approvals for the New England 1 offshore wind project.

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Q&A

How Rep. Sean Casten Is Thinking of Permitting Reform

A conversation with the co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition

Rep. Sean Casten.
Heatmap Illustration

This week’s conversation is with Rep. Sean Casten, co-chair of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition – a group of climate hawkish Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives. Casten and another lawmaker, Rep. Mike Levin, recently released the coalition’s priority permitting reform package known as the Cheap Energy Act, which stands in stark contrast to many of the permitting ideas gaining Republican support in Congress today. I reached out to talk about the state of play on permitting, where renewables projects fit on Democrats’ priority list in bipartisan talks, and whether lawmakers will ever address the major barrier we talk about every week here in The Fight: local control. Our chat wound up immensely informative and this is maybe my favorite Q&A I’ve had the liberty to write so far in this newsletter’s history.

The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.

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