First it was the reservoirs in China’s massive network of hydroelectric dams filling up, then it was the approval of 11 new nuclear reactors — and it’s all happening as China appears to be slowing down its approval of new coal plants, according to a research group that closely follows the Chinese energy transition.
While China is hardly scrapping its network of coal plants, which power 63% of its electric grid and makes it the world’s biggest consumer of coal (to the tune of about half of global coal consumption), it could mean that China is on the verge of powering its future economic growth non-carbon-emitting energy. This would mean a break with decades of coal-powered growth and could set the table for real emissions reductions from the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
It is true that many researchers consider it necessary to essentially halt approvals of new, unabated fossil fuel assets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and hold global temperatures rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. But any world where emissions are falling will have gone through a transitional period where Chinese coal construction first slows down.
The report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that in the first half of this year, China has approved just 9 gigawatts of new coal plants, an 83% drop from the first six months of 2023; in 2022 and 2023, the country approved 100 gigawatts of new coal. For scale, the United States added a total of 40 gigawatts of new capacity in 2023 across all sources of energy, including non-emitting ones like solar and lower-emitting ones like natural gas.
CREA attributes this slow down to “the rapid development of clean energy, which is now being installed at levels sufficient to meet China's electricity demand growth.” But China’s power mix is changing on the demand side, as well. If the government continues to shift from a strategy of rapid urbanization and massive new construction projects that depend on huge amounts of steel and cement (both of which require coal to produce) to high-value manufacturing like (electric!) automobiles, the demand for coal will likely plateau and fall, with emissions following.
The report adds to a growing body of data that shows China may have hit its emissions peak already, well before its 2030 goal. Even late last year, some experts speculated that peak emission would come by 2026. “If renewables continue to cut into coal generation then a peak in China’s CO2 emissions — pledged to happen before 2030 — is on the horizon, if not already here,” CREA said in a release accompanying the report.
But the report cautioned that the coal sector in China is hardly down and out. There were over 40 gigawatts’ worth of coal construction projects started in the first half of this year. And even if its emissions have peaked, 30% of the global total still comes from China, according to CREA, and the country is responsible for 90% of emissions growth since the signing of the Paris Agreement.
China has no issue deploying non-carbon-emitting power on a gargantuan scale — it makes up almost a third of the world’s hydropower and is installing roughly the electricity consumption of France in new, non-emitting power generation on an annual basis — but still, meaningful emissions reductions won’t come until these capacity additions can at least match the country's economic growth without the help of new coal.
Now, the trends may finally be pointing in the right direction. “If China maintains the trend of increasing renewable power capacity observed in [2023 and the first half of 2024], it will lead to a 20% reduction in coal power generation and a 35% reduction in overall coal consumption by 2035,” the CREA report argues.
