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Electric vehicles are the future. But what if you can’t buy one now?
As unpredictable as world events have been recently, very few people would’ve put money on the humble Toyota Prius getting a stunning makeover for 2023. Somehow, that’s exactly what happened. Now the all-new, fifth-generation Prius hybrid boasts sleek, almost sports-car-like looks to go with its impressive 57 miles per gallon.
The Prius will need every advantage it can muster. Its sales have been down for years, and hybrid cars also feel almost anachronistic compared to the new crop of high-range, high-performance electric vehicles hitting the market. Why go hybrid when you’re about to have more options than ever when it comes to breaking up with gasoline entirely?
Even the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act seems to be reinforcing this idea. While the act modernized how EV and plug-in hybrid tax credits work, regular hybrids without plugs have been left out in the cold. In other words, if you want an American-made EV like a Ford F-150 Lightning, you now qualify for a $7,500 tax break; but if you want a hybrid F-150 or Maverick pickup truck, you’re out of luck because those don’t have plugs.
Furthermore, the hybrid — long the standard-bearer for eco-friendly driving — seems to have a target on its back. “Hybrid cars are still incredibly popular, but are they good for the environment?,” NPR wondered in February, probably much to the chagrin of listeners, many of whom have enjoyed “All Things Considered" while commuting in their own hybrids.
This is all deeply unfortunate, especially given how quickly we need to reduce emissions to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change. Whether there's a plug or not is also the wrong way to think about hybrids.
There’s still a strong case to be made for hybrids today. But let’s be clear about what that case isn’t: an argument for extending the internal combustion era or to slow-walk EV adoption. Rather, hybrids can and should be seen as an essential tool for reducing vehicle emissions right now, and as cars that still have tremendous advantages EVs don’t have yet.
The auto industry’s move toward zero-emission vehicles is now basically inevitable. But there’s still a long way to go. In the interim, cars that pair electricity and gasoline can play a vital role in making the air cleaner and serving as a gateway drug for widespread EV adoption.
For a long time, the primary appeal of a hybrid car was that it would help you save money on gas. But they do much more than that. The science is clear: Hybrid vehicles generate fewer tailpipe emissions than their all-gasoline counterparts, and obviously none when running only on electricity. In fact, 2021 data from the U.S. Department of Energy indicates hybrids produce about half the carbon dioxide on average that fully internal-combustion cars do. The numbers are even better for plug-in hybrids.
Of course, battery EVs fare the best; the only emissions they’re tied to are related to vehicle and battery production and charging. If your goal with your next car purchase is to cut down on CO2, this is a superb way to do so.
As for plug-in hybrids, those have gotten a bad rap in recent years with various studies (especially out of Europe) claiming they pollute much more than automakers advertise. Certainly, that wouldn’t be the car industry’s first rodeo when it comes to greasing emissions — remember Dieselgate?
One thing that hasn’t made headlines is the fact that in Europe, many corporations took advantage of government subsidies to buy PHEVs for their corporate fleets, but company car owners often didn’t charge them. The result is a heavier car, thanks to its additional batteries, that isn’t being used as intended.
The moral of this story: If you drive a PHEV, make sure to plug it in so that it can be driven in all-electric mode properly. The average PHEV gets between 20 and 40 miles of electric range, and given that most Americans drive around 40 miles a day on average, you may be surprised how much gasoline you don’t end up using.
You have more options than ever before when it comes to EVs, and things will get even better in the years to come. Just about every automaker is planning an aggressive EV rollout across multiple categories — trucks, vans, even convertibles — and multiple price points. Electric range is getting better, and thanks to the IRA, EVs built in North America will come with enticing tax credits. Starting next year, those credits will even be applied at the point of sale at the dealership, so you won’t even need to wait on a tax return to reap the benefits.
But there’s still a lot of daylight between where the EV market is now and where it will go next. America’s public charging network is woefully inadequate and many providers offer an infamously subpar experience. Few good charging solutions exist for city dwellers and those who live in apartments. (In fact, I’ve been seeing more and more EVs here in New York charged by 100-foot extension cords running out of windows, which is suboptimal for countless reasons.) Whether you’re into road trips or not, long distances remain a challenge for many EVs too, thanks to these network issues.
Tesla still has objectively the best charging network and it’s opening up to other EVs, but that’s a ways off. So is the network expansion that will be driven by the IRA’s incentives.
Then there's the fact the best EVs are comparatively hard to buy. Many of the really in-demand new EVs — the Mustang Mach-E, the Hyundai Ioniq 5, and the Kia EV6 — are tough to find and still impacted by supply chain issues. If you want a car with great range, a beautiful interior, and excellent range, get in line. Now, to be fair, supply remains super weird across the whole automotive industry, but the most desirable electric cars still seem to have among the longest lines.
EVs remain expensive as well, even by modern standards; by late last year, the average EV was priced around $65,000, around $20,000 more than a typical new vehicle's price tag. That too should change as batteries get cheaper and more options come to market, but for now, going electric could mean sticker shock, too — especially if your EV does not qualify for the new tax breaks.
In other words, it should get much easier to be an EV owner in the next few years. Until then, if these barriers to entry are too onerous, consider a hybrid instead.
There’s also the unfortunate matter of how “green” our electricity really is. Recently, Polestar and Rivian — two companies with every incentive to get you to buy their EVs — jointly commissioned a study that urged a dramatic increase in renewable energy powering both the automotive supply chain and electricity sources in order for these vehicles to be maximally effective at deterring climate change.
EVs alone will not be enough to reduce the harmful effects of the transportation sector. While it’s hard to say “be patient” when we directly experience climate change, we must realize that making changes that should’ve happened decades ago will be a process.
Until then, there’s great value in doing whatever can be done to reduce CO2 emissions, and driving hybrids — to say nothing of walking, biking, and taking public transit — can be crucial to that too.
Are hybrid cars essentially a stopgap to full EV adoption? At this point, it feels like the definitive answer is yes. Car companies like General Motors, Ford, Volvo, and Volkswagen all say they plan to phase out internal combustion entirely by the middle of the next decade, and even if they try to renege on their promises, governments from Brussels to California are banning the sale of new gasoline cars around the same time.
Between regulations and market forces — especially China’s aggressive EV push — the writing is on the wall for gasoline cars. Reducing emissions will be the single most crucial guiding force for the auto industry over the next few decades. In the meantime, and for that very reason, more and more hybrid options are coming to market.
Sure, the Prius’ sales figures don’t look great, but the venerable Toyota Tacoma truck is heavily expected to offer a hybrid option soon. The Toyota Sienna minivan is now only offered as a hybrid, as is the quirky new Toyota Crown sedan. Honda brought back the Accord Hybrid for 2023 and the all-new CR-V Hybrid looks promising as well. Mazda is finally dipping its toes into that market with the new CX-90 plug-in hybrid. Even the beloved Mazda Miata, the gold standard for affordable sports cars, is heavily rumored to have some kind of electrification when an all-new one arrives in the next few years. And as of this year, every new Volvo you can buy is a hybrid if it’s not a full EV.
The point is, while EVs are getting the splashy headlines, car companies aren’t yet done with hybrids. Not by a long shot. In fact, electrification is likely to become even more common as we start to approach the end of the internal combustion era, particularly as battery costs start to go down.
Think of it this way: If the Chevy Corvette can go hybrid, so can you.
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Give the people what they want — big, family-friendly EVs.
The star of this year’s Los Angeles Auto Show was the Hyundai Ioniq 9, a rounded-off colossus of an EV that puts Hyundai’s signature EV styling on a three-row SUV cavernous enough to carry seven.
I was reminded of two years ago, when Hyundai stole the L.A. show with a different EV: The reveal of Ioniq 6, its “streamliner” aerodynamic sedan that looked like nothing else on the market. By comparison, Ioniq 9 is a little more banal. It’s a crucial vehicle that will occupy the large end of Hyundai's excellent and growing lineup of electric cars, and one that may sell in impressive numbers to large families that want to go electric. Even with all the sleek touches, though, it’s not quite interesting. But it is big, and at this moment in electric vehicles, big is what’s in.
The L.A. show is one the major events on the yearly circuit of car shows, where the car companies traditionally reveal new models for the media and show off their whole lineups of vehicles for the public. Given that California is the EV capital of America, carmakers like to talk up their electric models here.
Hyundai’s brand partner, Kia, debuted a GT performance version of its EV9, adding more horsepower and flashy racing touches to a giant family SUV. Jeep reminded everyone of its upcoming forays into full-size and premium electric SUVs in the form of the Recon and the Wagoneer S. VW trumpeted the ID.Buzz, the long-promised electrified take on the classic VW Microbus that has finally gone on sale in America. The VW is the quirkiest of the lot, but it’s a design we’ve known about since 2017, when the concept version was revealed.
Boring isn’t the worst thing in the world. It can be a sign of a maturing industry. At auto shows of old, long before this current EV revolution, car companies would bring exotic, sci-fi concept cars to dial up the intrigue compared to the bread-and-butter, conservatively styled vehicles that actually made them gobs of money. During the early EV years, electrics were the shiny thing to show off at the car show. Now, something of the old dynamic has come to the electric sector.
Acura and Chrysler brought wild concepts to Los Angeles that were meant to signify the direction of their EVs to come. But most of the EVs in production looked far more familiar. Beyond the new hulking models from Hyundai and Kia, much of what’s on offer includes long-standing models, but in EV (Chevy Equinox and Blazer) or plug-in hybrid (Jeep Grand Cherokee and Wrangler) configurations. One of the most “interesting” EVs on the show floor was the Cybertruck, which sat quietly in a barely-staffed display of Tesla vehicles. (Elon Musk reveals his projects at separate Tesla events, a strategy more carmakers have begun to steal as a way to avoid sharing the spotlight at a car show.)
The other reason boring isn’t bad: It’s what the people want. The majority of drivers don’t buy an exotic, fun vehicle. They buy a handsome, spacious car they can afford. That last part, of course, is where the problem kicks in.
We don’t yet know the price of the Ioniq 9, but it’s likely to be in the neighborhood of Kia’s three-row electric, the EV9, which starts in the mid-$50,000s and can rise steeply from there. Stellantis’ forthcoming push into the EV market will start with not only pricey premium Jeep SUVs, but also some fun, though relatively expensive, vehicles like the heralded Ramcharger extended-range EV truck and the Dodge Charger Daytona, an attempt to apply machismo-oozing, alpha-male muscle-car marketing to an electric vehicle.
You can see the rationale. It costs a lot to build a battery big enough to power a big EV, so they’re going to be priced higher. Helpfully for the car brands, Americans have proven they will pay a premium for size and power. That’s not to say we’re entering an era of nothing but bloated EV battleships. Models such as the overpowered electric Dodge Charger and Kia EV9 GT will reveal the appetite for performance EVs. Smaller models like the revived Chevy Bolt and Kia’s EV3, already on sale overseas, are coming to America, tax credit or not.
The question for the legacy car companies is where to go from here. It takes years to bring a vehicle from idea to production, so the models on offer today were conceived in a time when big federal support for EVs was in place to buoy the industry through its transition. Now, though, the automakers have some clear uncertainty about what to say.
Chevy, having revealed new electrics like the Equinox EV elsewhere, did not hold a media conference at the L.A. show. Ford, which is having a hellacious time losing money on its EVs, used its time to talk up combustion vehicles including a new version of the palatial Expedition, one of the oversized gas-guzzlers that defined the first SUV craze of the 1990s.
If it’s true that the death of federal subsidies will send EV sales into a slump, we may see messaging from Detroit and elsewhere that feels decidedly retro, with very profitable combustion front-and-center and the all-electric future suddenly less of a talking point. Whatever happens at the federal level, EVs aren’t going away. But as they become a core part of the car business, they are going to get less exciting.
Current conditions: Parts of southwest France that were freezing last week are now experiencing record high temperatures • Forecasters are monitoring a storm system that could become Australia’s first named tropical cyclone of this season • The Colorado Rockies could get several feet of snow today and tomorrow.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season caused an estimated $500 billion in damage and economic losses, according to AccuWeather. “For perspective, this would equate to nearly 2% of the nation’s gross domestic product,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. The figure accounts for long-term economic impacts including job losses, medical costs, drops in tourism, and recovery expenses. “The combination of extremely warm water temperatures, a shift toward a La Niña pattern and favorable conditions for development created the perfect storm for what AccuWeather experts called ‘a supercharged hurricane season,’” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “This was an exceptionally powerful and destructive year for hurricanes in America, despite an unusual and historic lull during the climatological peak of the season.”
AccuWeather
This year’s hurricane season produced 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall, two of which were major storms. According to NOAA, an “average” season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The season comes to an end on November 30.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced yesterday that if President-elect Donald Trump scraps the $7,500 EV tax credit, California will consider reviving its Clean Vehicle Rebate Program. The CVRP ran from 2010 to 2023 and helped fund nearly 600,000 EV purchases by offering rebates that started at $5,000 and increased to $7,500. But the program as it is now would exclude Tesla’s vehicles, because it is aimed at encouraging market competition, and Tesla already has a large share of the California market. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has cozied up to Trump, called California’s potential exclusion of Tesla “insane,” though he has said he’s okay with Trump nixing the federal subsidies. Newsom would need to go through the State Legislature to revive the program.
President-elect Donald Trump said yesterday he would impose steep new tariffs on all goods imported from China, Canada, and Mexico on day one of his presidency in a bid to stop “drugs” and “illegal aliens” from entering the United States. Specifically, Trump threatened Canada and Mexico each with a 25% tariff, and China with a 10% hike on existing levies. Such moves against three key U.S. trade partners would have major ramifications across many sectors, including the auto industry. Many car companies import vehicles and parts from plants in Mexico. The Canadian government responded with a statement reminding everyone that “Canada is essential to U.S. domestic energy supply, and last year 60% of U.S. crude oil imports originated in Canada.” Tariffs would be paid by U.S. companies buying the imported goods, and those costs would likely trickle down to consumers.
Amazon workers across the world plan to begin striking and protesting on Black Friday “to demand justice, fairness, and accountability” from the online retail giant. The protests are organized by the UNI Global Union’s Make Amazon Pay Campaign, which calls for better working conditions for employees and a commitment to “real environmental sustainability.” Workers in more than 20 countries including the U.S. are expected to join the protests, which will continue through Cyber Monday. Amazon’s carbon emissions last year totalled 68.8 million metric tons. That’s about 3% below 2022 levels, but more than 30% above 2019 levels.
Researchers from MIT have developed an AI tool called the “Earth Intelligence Engine” that can simulate realistic satellite images to show people what an area would look like if flooded by extreme weather. “Visualizing the potential impacts of a hurricane on people’s homes before it hits can help residents prepare and decide whether to evacuate,” wrote Jennifer Chu at MIT News. The team found that AI alone tended to “hallucinate,” generating images of flooding in areas that aren’t actually susceptible to a deluge. But when combined with a science-backed flood model, the tool became more accurate. “One of the biggest challenges is encouraging people to evacuate when they are at risk,” said MIT’s Björn Lütjens, who led the research. “Maybe this could be another visualization to help increase that readiness.” The tool is still in development and is available online. Here is an image it generated of flooding in Texas:
Maxar Open Data Program via Gupta et al., CVPR Workshop Proceedings. Lütjens et al., IEEE TGRS
A new installation at the Centre Pompidou in Paris lets visitors listen to the sounds of endangered and extinct animals – along with the voice of the artist behind the piece, the one and only Björk.
How Hurricane Helene is still putting the Southeast at risk.
Less than two months after Hurricane Helene cut a historically devastating course up into the southeastern U.S. from Florida’s Big Bend, drenching a wide swath of states with 20 trillion gallons of rainfall in just five days, experts are warning of another potential threat. The National Interagency Fire Center’s forecast of fire-risk conditions for the coming months has the footprint of Helene highlighted in red, with the heightened concern stretching into the new year.
While the flip from intense precipitation to wildfire warnings might seem strange, experts say it speaks to the weather whiplash we’re now seeing regularly. “What we expect from climate change is this layering of weather extremes creating really dangerous situations,” Robert Scheller, a professor of forestry and environmental resources at North Carolina State University, explained to me.
Scheuller said North Carolina had been experiencing drought conditions early in the year, followed by intense rain leading up to Helene’s landfall. Then it went dry again — according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the state was back to some level of drought condition as of mid-November. The NIFC forecast report says the same is true for much of the region, including Florida, despite its having been hit by Hurricane Milton soon after Helene.
That dryness is a particular concern due to the amount of debris left in Helene’s wake — another major risk factor for fire. The storm’s winds, which reached more than 100 miles per hour in some areas, wreaked havoc on millions of acres of forested land. In North Carolina alone, the state’s Forest Service estimates over 820,000 acres of timberland were damaged.
“When you have a catastrophic storm like [Helene], all of the stuff that was standing upright — your trees — they might be snapped off or blown over,” fire ecologist David Godwin told me. “All of a sudden, that material is now on the forest floor, and so you have a really tremendous rearrangement of the fuels and the vegetation within ecosystems that can change the dynamics of how fire behaves in those sites.”
Godwin is the director of the Southern Fire Exchange for the University of Florida, a program that connects wildland firefighters, prescribed burners, and natural resources managers across the Southeast with fire science and tools. He says the Southeast sees frequent, unplanned fires, but that active ecosystem management helps keep the fires that do spark from becoming conflagrations. But an increase like this in fallen or dead vegetation — what Godwin refers to as fire “fuel” — can take this risk to the next level, particularly as it dries out.
Godwin offered an example from another storm, 2018’s Hurricane Michael, which rapidly intensified before making landfall in Northern Florida and continuing inland, similar to Hurricane Helene. In its aftermath, there was a 10-fold increase in the amount of fuel on the ground, with 72 million tons of timber damaged in Florida. Three years later, the Bertha Swamp Road Fire filled the storm’s Florida footprint with flames, which consumed more than 30,000 acres filled with dried out forest fuel. One Florida official called the wildfire the “ghost” of Michael, nodding to the overlap of the impacted areas and speaking to the environmental threat the storm posed even years later.
Not only does this fuel increase the risk of fire, it changes the character of the fires that do ignite, Godwin said. Given ample ground fuel, flame lengths can grow longer, allowing them to burn higher into the canopy. That’s why people setting prescribed fires will take steps like raking leaf piles, which helps keep the fire intensity low.
These fires can also produce more smoke, Godwin said, which can mix with the mountainous fog in the region to deadly effect. According to the NIFC, mountainous areas incurred the most damage from Helene, not only due to downed vegetation, but also because of “washed out roads and trails” and “slope destabilization” from the winds and rain. If there is a fire in these areas, all these factors will also make it more challenging for firefighters to address it, the report adds.
In addition to the natural debris fire experts worry about, Helene caused extensive damage to the built environment, wrecking homes, businesses, and other infrastructure. Try imagining four-and-a-half football fields stacked 10 feet tall with debris — that’s what officials have removed so far just in Asheville, North Carolina. In Florida’s Treasure Island, there were piles 50 feet high of assorted scrap materials. Officials have warned that some common household items, such as the lithium-ion batteries used in e-bikes and electric vehicles, can be particularly flammable after exposure to floodwaters. They are also advising against burning debris as a means of managing it due to all the compounding risks.
Larry Pierson, deputy chief of the Swannanoa Fire Department in North Carolina, told Blueridge Public Radio that his department’s work has “grown exponentially since the storm.” While cooler, wetter winter weather could offer some relief, Scheuller said the area will likely see heightened fire behavior for years after the storm, particularly if the swings between particularly wet and particularly dry periods continue.
Part of the challenge moving forward, then, is to find ways to mitigate risk on this now-hazardous terrain. For homeowners, that might mean exercising caution when dealing with debris and considering wildfire risk as part of rebuilding plans, particularly in more wooded areas. On a larger forest management scale, this means prioritizing safe debris collection and finding ways to continue the practice of prescribed burns, which are utilized more in the Southeast than in any other U.S. region. Without focused mitigation efforts, Godwin told me the area’s overall fire outlook would be much different.
“We would have a really big wildfire issue,” he said, “perhaps even bigger than what we might see in parts of the West.”