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On Texas solar, Total’s deal, and Rivian’s revving

Current conditions: The storms soaking the American South with as much as 10 inches of rain are tamping down the region’s wildfire risk • Cavite, the Philippine port city on a peninsula at the southern lip of Manila Bay, is facing its eighth straight day of temperatures nearing 110 degrees Fahrenheit • North Korean state media just issued a warning of a “severe” and “unusual” drought, killing off crops and threatening food shortages in the infamously famine-afflicted hermit kingdom.

Belgium has long ranked as the world’s No. 4 biggest user of nuclear energy as a percentage of its electricity mix, generating nearly half its power from fission. But the country passed a nuclear phaseout law in 2003. Since 2022, when Brussels started to weigh delaying the shutdowns, the European Union’s capital nation has closed five of its seven commercial reactors. The policy divided the government, with liberals fighting to preserve the reactors and Green Party officials, including former Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten, who previously worked at a private law firm that counted Russian gas giant Gazprom as one of its biggest clients, pushing for a full atomic exit. Now Belgium is halting the decommissioning of its last two reactors and nationalizing its nuclear plants in a bid to save the industry. In a Thursday post on X, Prime Minister Bart De Wever said his government had reached an agreement with the French utility giant Engie to “initiate the necessary studies for a full takeover” of Belgium’s nuclear industry. Engie owns all seven nuclear plants in the country. “This government chooses safe, affordable, and sustainable energy,” De Wever wrote, “with less dependence on fossil imports and more control over our own supply.”
France, which generates more of its power from fission than any other nation, followed a similar approach, fully nationalizing the utility Électricité de France in 2023 as part of a plan to shore up and expand the reactor fleet. Last month, EDF, as the French giant is known, announced a $117 million investment in a factory to build parts for France’s flagship nuclear reactor, the EPR2. On Wednesday, meanwhile, the Canadian government put out a statement vowing to develop “a transformative” new national nuclear strategy on Wednesday that would focus on the country’s natively-designed CANDU technology and burgeoning uranium mining sector.
America’s solar boom may look slightly dimmer since the Trump administration cracked down on permitting and eliminated key tax credits. But construction has begun on the 140-megawatt Iron Spur Solar project in Snyder, Texas, ensuring that the facility locks in tax credits before the phase-out in July, I can exclusively report for this newsletter. It’s the biggest U.S. project yet funded by Energea, a solar financing startup that allows investors to buy shares in networks of solar farms in the U.S., Brazil, Colombia, and South Africa. Iron Spur is expected to start producing electricity in 2029. Now that the company is looking for offtakers to buy the electricity, co-founder and managing partner Mike Silvestrini said “something has changed.”
“In the past, it was an ass-kissing process of communicating with guys at these big IT companies,” he told me. “It’s turned. All of a sudden, having the power production abilities gives us the upper hand, and we’re able to negotiate from higher ground than we ever have before. It’s a noticeable change. That’s going to continue.” With the tax credit going away, he said, “the cheapest source of new power generation is about to get more expensive. That pretty much guarantees that domestic energy rates go up after July 5, as there are no longer projects with that tax credit available.” In fact, he added, Energea is better off waiting to negotiate a power purchase agreement, offering some insight into how the solar market could change if Republicans don’t manage to pass legislation to salvage the tax credits. “It behooves companies like ours and projects like Iron Spur to be patient and see how markets respond to a now-finite number of investment tax credit projects,” he said.
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As I told you at the start of the week, the Trump administration is replicating the $1 billion deal it made with TotalEnergies to convince the French energy giant to abandon its two offshore wind projects in the U.S. Reporting by Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo later showed that the legal justification for the federal government’s cash offer was shaky at best, and that the actual text of the agreement contained no definite assurances that the company would invest any more than it had already planned to. Now Congress is getting involved. On Wednesday, as Emily reported, two House Democrats sent a letter to Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné announcing that they have opened a formal investigation into the deal. “We’re going to get every document, every email, every last receipt on this deal, and every person who had a hand in this is going to answer for it,” Jared Huffman, the ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee from California, said in a press release. “What I have to say to TotalEnergies is this: Consider yourself on notice, we’re coming for you.”
A former official at the Department of the Interior told Utility Dive this week that the deals set a new precedent that could be abused: “You wouldn’t want to create a situation where you are allowing companies, for instance, to buy up leases for anti-competitive purposes and just not do anything on them for a period of time and then give them back and get their money back.” In Virginia, where Dominion Energy just started up its first offshore wind farm, Governor Abigail Spanberger signed legislation this week meant to support training and expansion of the new energy sector’s workforce, per offshoreWIND.biz. Total, for its part, isn’t eschewing renewables everywhere. The company just started construction on a 440-megawatt solar farm in the Philippines, PV Tech reported.
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More than 50 countries have agreed to work on trade measures to cut demand for fossil fuels. The pact came out of the Santa Marta climate summit in Colombia, in what the nonprofit Covering Climate Now called “a game-changing moment.” Climate scientist Johan Rockstrom told delegates at the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels: “You are a light in the tunnel of darkness.” For all the reversals of decarbonization policies we’ve seen over the past two years, however, the world is rapidly looking for alternatives to fossil fuels as the war in Iran drives up prices. “We decided that the transition away from fossil fuels could no longer remain a slogan but must become a concrete political and collective endeavor,” Irene Vélez Torres, environment minister of Colombia, told the Financial Times. Notably, the six-day confab did not include the world’s biggest emitters: China, the U.S., and India, who are responsible for more than 40% of current emissions.
Rivian is set to produce up to 300,000 vehicles at its Georgia factory, up 50% from its initial estimate. The electric automaker announced the news Thursday as part of its first-quarter earnings call. The company said it had reworked a loan deal with the Department of Energy to borrow just $4.5 billion of the original $6.6 billion awarded under the Biden administration, TechCrunch reported. Overall, Rivan’s earnings beat analysts’ expectations, according to Sherwood.
Genetically modified crops are widely considered to be essential to feeding a growing human population on a planet with a rapidly changing climate. That’s especially true now with the Iran War causing fertilizer shortages at the start of the growing season. Now the EU, long a bastion of GMO policy, is authorizing four more genetically engineered crops for import and use in food and animal feed. The approval, per Fertilizer Daily, is for one new soybean variety and renewed approvals for one maize and two cotton products.
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Current conditions: Oman’s Ayn Athum Waterfalls burst to life this week as rain battered the Gulf nation’s southwestern Dhofar governorate • Severe monsoon flooding has deluged parts of the American Southwest, including Navajo Nation, where at least three people have died • Tropical Storm Dujuan is barreling toward Japan, where it threatens flooding and landslides in Tokyo and Chiba.
When the Houthis stormed Yemen’s Red Sea coast last week, the Iran-backed rebels gained new ground from which to attack boats passing through the vital shipping lane, extending Tehran’s reach from the Persian Gulf’s hotly contested Strait of Hormuz to the waterway on the opposite side of the Arabian peninsula. In response, oil prices surged. But the price per barrel of crude is slipping again as the United States has rebuked Saudi Arabia’s requests for help routing the militants, instead seeking a deal that keeps the Bab al-Mandab Strait open to American and Israeli ships. Over the weekend, U.S. diplomats met with Houthi officials in neutral Oman, Reuters reported. Following the talks, the Times of Israel reported that Houthis promised not to attack any Israeli or commercial ships of any kind, only those linked to Saudi Arabia, which has funded the Yemeni government’s campaign against the rebels.
Satellite images published by the investigative site Hunterbrook showed workers building a bypass on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, its main conduit for circumventing oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz, to get around the pumping station damaged by a Houthi attack. But the promise of free movement through the Red Sea sent the price of oil down by between 1% and 4% on Thursday.
Just yesterday, I told you that the Trump administration had moved to drastically change how the government interprets the Endangered Species Act to only consider deaths of protected animals illegal if the creatures were intentionally targeted. Such a shift would exclude the vast majority of deaths linked to energy companies, such as when birds land in toxic oil ponds or collide with wind turbines. Whether federal enforcement ultimately reflects that interpretation depends on the outcome of a forthcoming lawsuit. Already, Earthjustice has vowed to file litigation challenging the Trump administration’s legal memo directing federal agencies on its new view of the nation’s bedrock conservation law. “The government’s new legal position is a prescription for extinction. It says that as long as you claim you didn’t mean to kill an endangered species, the law can’t and won’t stop you,” Earthjustice attorney Ben Levitan said in a press release. “That’s ridiculous — and a totally illegal, active misreading of the Endangered Species Act. We’ll see the Trump administration in court about this.”
The toll wind turbines take on migratory birds is a favorite talking point of the energy source’s opponents. But relief from the responsibility to avoid killing birds would be cold comfort to the wind industry as developers wait for the Trump administration to follow a court ruling requiring it to continue processing applications for turbines. As my colleague Jael Holzman wrote yesterday, the administration has continued delaying. At least one other legal fight within the offshore wind industry has, meanwhile, come to a conclusion. Vineyard Wind and its turbine supplier GE Vernova, announced an “amicable settlement” this week that resolves “all outstanding litigation,” the New Bedford Light reported. The developer sued the supplier in April, accusing GE Vernova of an $800 million breach of contract following a blade failure in 2024.

The U.S. needs more long-term energy storage, and few technologies are better tested by time than using excess electricity to pump water into a reservoir, where it can be released downhill and run through turbines to generate huge bursts of power when it’s needed. Back when the U.S. had lots of nuclear power, pumped hydro plants harvested the unused electrons during the night. With solar now producing more electricity during the day in some parts of the country than the grid demands, pumped hydro is seeing a potential renewal. But the U.S. hasn’t built any pumped hydro facilities since the 1990s. A project that looked likely to break that dry spell is now on pause as the Trump administration heeds opponents’ concerns and orders a new study on its environmental impact.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has delayed its decision on whether to license the $3 billion project to add a pumped hydro facility to the Seminoe Reservoir, a lightning bolt-shaped waterway in southern Wyoming. The Bureau of Land Management said it will conduct a supplemental environmental impact statement and open the door to more public comments and input from local officials. “This feels like a small victory,” CiCi Oliver, a fly-fishing shop owner who opposed the project over its potential disruptions to the ecology of the reservoir, told WyoFile this week.
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At the start of the Iran War, some interpreters of President Donald Trump’s supposed four-dimensional geopolitical chess moves suggested that shutting down the Strait of Hormuz was an intentional move to show China’s vulnerable underbelly: Beijing’s dependence on oil imports. And yet, China’s vast oil stockpiles and refining capacity, plus its array of alternative energy sources, allowed the country to slash oil purchases by 23% in the first six months of the war compared to the same period last year, according to a New York Times analysis of customs data. “This is a power that nobody thought China had,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Going forward, it’s going to be really interesting to see: What does China do with this newfound power?” The heaviest answer to that question now weighing on Western officials involves China considering the ramifications of a potential invasion of Taiwan to be less worrying than before.
That’s especially true because Taiwan, by contrast, is more vulnerable to losing access to oil and gas imports than ever before. After completing its decades-long mission last year to shut down the nuclear fleet that powered the island’s 20th century transformation into the world’s premiere chipmaker, Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which advocates for the republic’s continued de facto independence — left the nation dependent on imported liquified natural gas and crude for the vast majority of its energy. Now, according to Nikkei, the government is hastening its efforts to potentially bring at least one nuclear station back online.
Yet another state is considering a moratorium on data centers — one close to the epicenter of the artificial intelligence boom. Maryland, which shares a grid and a border with northern Virginia’s data center megacluster, could see a ban come into effect as early as next year if state legislators pass a bill in the next session. Governor Wes Moore, a Democrat, said he “will absolutely sign” a statewide ban “if it’s coming from local legislators.” Speaking to Punchbowl News, he suggested that any moratorium would come with loopholes for projects that meet high standards. “I believe local jurisdictions should have a say. There are certain local jurisdictions who want it,” he said. “I just need them to understand I have very strict guidelines for what is actually going to get state approval.”
A startup founded by members of the team of U.S. government scientists that first achieved net-energy gain from a fusion reaction has hit a new milestone that should raise the eyebrows of even skeptics of the so-called holy grail of clean power. Less than two months after publicizing its roadmap to commercial fusion, Inertia Enterprises ran a simulation demonstrating that its first commercial plant will be capable of producing 25 times more energy than the laser needed to trigger the reaction, the company told my colleague Katie Brigham in an exclusive.
The company using the only technology proven to achieve breakeven has simulated net energy gain.
Less than two months after publicizing its roadmap to commercial fusion, Inertia Enterprises has checked step one off its list. The startup ran a simulation demonstrating that its first commercial facility will be capable of producing over 25 times more fusion energy than the laser energy put into it, Inertia told Heatmap exclusively.
This is actually the second milestone Inertia has achieved on its 10-point roadmap to building a grid-scale power plant by the mid-2030s — the startup announced last month that it had cut the manufacturing time for its fusion fuel pellets from days to minutes. But for the lay fusion observer, this latest achievement may be the more striking of the two. So far, the only entity to achieve breakeven — the point at which a fusion reaction produces more energy than it consumes — is Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s National Ignition Facility.
Inertia, founded last year by current and former Lawrence Livermore scientists, is now building on that result under a formal research partnership with the lab, using the same technical approach as NIF: firing high-powered lasers at a tiny pellet of fusion fuel, compressing it until the nuclei fuse and release enormous amounts of energy.
The new results, which Inertia said it’s submitting for peer review, demonstrate that the company’s first commercial-scale plant ought to generate over 250 megawatts of electricity for the grid. But because the startup’s machine has yet to be built, the projected energy gain and power output come from a so-called “virtual shot,” a high-fidelity computer simulation that uses the same design codes Lawrence Livermore has used for its own successful ignition experiments, and is thus calibrated and benchmarked against real results.
“We are simulating all the things that we know happen in a fusion experiment, and it’s using the validated models — the best, highest-fidelity physics models that have been validated to NIF ignition experiments — to project where we will be with Inertia,” the startup’s co-founder, Annie Kritcher, told me. The simulation accounts for factors such as “target defects, variations in laser performance, laser delivery, [and] injection tolerances,” she explained.
Even when variables like these fluctuate, Kritcher said, the machine’s energy yield should barely change. That sets Inertia’s system apart from NIF’s, which operates right on the so-called “ignition cliff,” where small imperfections in the fusion fuel target or slight variations in laser performance can determine whether the system achieves ignition at all. But because Inertia designed its system to operate far above that threshold, minor flaws should translate only to modest dips in performance.
Other fusion startups have run simulations demonstrating the validity of their underlying physics and — in industry leader Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ case — even projecting their ability to exceed breakeven. But Kritcher argues that Inertia’s “virtual shot” is a more meaningful achievement because the startup’s plant design replicates the underlying physics validated by NIF, the only fusion experiment yet to cross breakeven in the real world. “The extrapolation risk for the other validation simulations is much, much, much higher,” she told me.
Kritcher has experienced this risk firsthand during her many years running experiments at NIF. When the facility fired its first real shots at ignition in 2011, she was working as a post-doctoral researcher at the national lab, and sincerely believed these early experiments would be a success. But the shots turned out to be “orders of magnitude off” from achieving their goal, thanks to the “unknown unknowns and the physics that weren’t included” in the team’s initial modeling.
Other companies that haven’t yet proven their physics on a real-world machine still face those “unknown unknowns,” she explained, whereas Inertia has been able to unveil and eliminate as many as anyone has yet found. The startup’s plant design is by no means an exact replica of NIF, however. For starters, its fusion targets will be twice as large, and its lasers roughly five times as powerful. The facility will also fire 10 shots per second, compared with NIF’s roughly one shot per week, using thousands of individually adjustable laser beams rather than NIF’s fixed 192. So as is nearly always the case when scaling up, some unknown unknowns likely remain.
But Kritcher is confident that the virtual shot will translate to real world performance — a level of certainty she admittedly hasn’t always had in her decades of nuclear engineering research and practice. In addition to her role at Inertia, Kritcher remains a senior scientist at Lawrence Livermore, where she has led the physics design for NIF’s fusion energy experiments since 2019.
A few years before the lab ultimately achieved breakeven in 2022 — more than a decade after its first attempts — Kritcher was beginning to doubt that they would ever get there. Then, in 2021, NIF reached a breakthrough that went largely unnoticed outside the ranks of dedicated fusion observers: It fired a shot that produced 70% as much fusion energy as the reaction consumed, bringing the facility within striking distance of net energy gain. And while it didn’t reach that threshold, the scientists said the experiment demonstrated ignition — a self-sustaining fusion burn.
The result gave Kritcher assurance that the lab was on the cusp of energy gain. Now, she feels a similar level of confidence that Inertia can translate its simulated 25x energy gain into a real world commercial facility. “The change that we made going from that first ignition result — the 0.7x gain to the [net energy] gain result — that’s the kind of change I feel like we’re making here,” she told me. “It’s working now, and we’re just making it bigger and better.”
Greenhouse gas pollution could drop by half a percent this year, according to a new analysis.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
Back in March of last year, I coined the phrase “Degrowth Donald” to describe President Donald Trump’s accidental environmental impact.
Trump might say that climate change was a “hoax” or “scam,” I said. But when you looked at his actions, a different set of beliefs emerged.
He imposed a 10% tax on Canadian oil — a far more effective deterrent on consuming Albertan crude than a decade of protests against Keystone XL. He taxed foreign car imports and levied new tariffs on single-family-home building materials. You could say he had, I don’t know, rhubarb politics — a MAGA red stalk erupting in big green leaves.
Of course, Trump’s actual environmental politics are far more complicated. He has declared war on wind energy and gutted greenhouse gas rules. As you read in Heatmap AM this morning, the Trump administration announced today it would transform the Endangered Species Act to legalize a much broader range of animal killings.
But every so often, Degrowth Donald rides again. And so it is with the Iran war, which has gone on much longer than Trump initially envisioned, changed the global energy economy, and made China’s distinctive approach to energy security — which relies on electrification and large oil and mineral stockpiles — look more popular globally. It has triggered an energy crisis that is, at the moment, getting worse: Even in the United States, gasoline prices are surging again, and diesel is nearing its post-2022 inflation-adjusted record highs, according to Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Energy prices are even higher in much of Europe.
One upshot of these higher prices, though? Emissions now seem to be going down. According to a new analysis from Carbon Brief, a U.K.-based nonprofit, global emissions from fossil fuels will fall by half a percent this year because of higher oil and natural gas prices caused by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure. What’s interesting is that coal burning will actually increase — by more than 1% — but it will be swamped by declines from oil and gas consumption.
That’s a change from what authorities once expected. Last year, the International Energy Agency projected that global coal use would decline this year because of Chinese policies. But fuel switching will drive it up.
Of course, emissions declines caused by higher prices (or economic downturns) are the worst type of reductions. What we want to see, instead, is countries switching to lower-carbon forms of energy. But energy crises have a way of pushing every country’s energy policy in new directions. This year’s events have convinced Thailand, for instance, to reduce its liquified natural gas consumption and switch to renewables instead; they have caused Canada to open its market up to cheap Chinese electric vehicles and pursue an “associate membership” with the European Union. The 1970s oil crisis ultimately created the global energy regime of the 1980s and 1990s. What else countries might learn from this crisis is not too hard to guess.