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On Tesla’s solar factory, Bolivia’s protests, and China’s hydrogen motorcycle

Current conditions: The East Coast heat wave is exposing more than 80 million Americans to temperatures near or above 90 degrees Fahrenheit through at least the end of today, putting grid operators who run PJM Interconnection and the New York electrical systems on high alert • Thunderstorms are drenching the United States’ southernmost capital city, Pago Pago, American Samoa, and driving temperatures up near 90 degrees • Some 3,600 miles north in the Pacific, Guam’s capital city of Hagåtña is in the midst of a week of even worse lightning storms.
American investment in low-carbon energy and transportation has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, ending an unbroken growth trend stretching back to 2019. In the first three months of 2026, total investment in those green sectors reached $61 billion, according to a Rhodium Group analysis published this morning. That’s a 3% drop from the previous quarter — and a 9% decline from the first three months of 2025. Contrary to the Trump administration’s claims to be overseeing a resounding revival of U.S. manufacturing, investments in clean technologies fell for a sixth consecutive quarter to $8 billion, down a whopping 34% from the first quarter of 2025. With federal tax credits for electric vehicles eliminated, investments into battery manufacturing plunged 47% year over year. At the state level, there’s been some progress. Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Michigan, and New York all recorded their largest year-over-year increases over the past four quarters as clean electricity investments at least doubled in each state. “Wind was the primary driver in Virginia, New Mexico, New York, and Colorado; and solar in Michigan and Oklahoma,” the report noted. Sales of electric vehicles, at least on a worldwide level, are also gaining momentum: the International Energy Agency released a report this morning that forecast 30% of global new car sales will be battery electric this year.
The Tuesday night primary elections in six U.S. states, meanwhile, offered mixed results for clean energy supporters. Representative Thomas Massie, the dissident Republican from northern Kentucky who repeatedly broke with his party to criticize President Donald Trump and boasted of his off-grid home’s solar and battery system, lost by double digits to his White House-backed rival. Pennsylvania’s state Representative Chris Rabb, a progressive would-be “Squad” member whose platform mirrors the Green New Deal movement’s key policy demands, won the Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District spanning parts of Philadelphia.

During an appearance on Fox News last week, investor and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary vowed to release documents showing that opponents of the data center complex he proposed building in the Utah desert received funding from China, suggesting the protesters seeking to thwart his $100 billion megaproject were useful idiots in Beijing’s bid to hamper America’s technological progress. Now Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum is echoing those claims. “It’s not organic and local,” he said Thursday on stage at the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference in Anchorage, where he was the keynote speaker. “Some of this is foreign-sourced dark money coming in.” The link between rising electricity prices and data centers, he said, was “specious.” He went on to cite a specific example of a small town in North Dakota, from when he served as the state’s governor, where a billion-dollar data center project ended up reducing costs for ratepayers by paying a premium to “buy down” the price households paid. It wasn’t immediately obvious which project he was referring to. But my best guess from some cursory research is that he may have meant the Applied Digital data center in Ellendale, along the southeastern border with South Dakota. In 2023, Prairie Public reported that the facility helped bring down transmission costs, reducing ratepayers’ bills by as much as $61 per year.
Burgum also suggested that Democrats were inflaming the data center issue for political gain. But opposition spans the political spectrum. Tom Steyer, the billionaire progressive running for governor of California, on Monday walked back a response to a candidate questionnaire published by Greenpeace, in which he said he supported a pause on data center development. In a statement to Politico, campaign spokesperson Kevin Liao said that while Steyer wants to ensure protections for electricity prices and water resources, he does not support a temporary ban.
It appears Elon Musk is more likely to follow through on his promise to build enough manufacturing capacity to churn out 100 gigawatts of solar panels in the U.S. than to sell 500,000 Cybertrucks a year. Tesla has selected a site just outside Houston for a new factory that will expand the company’s capacity to churn out panels in its home market. That’s according to Electrek, which said it had independently confirmed a tip from a source pointing the publication to the Brookshire, Texas, site. The plant will be co-located with a battery factory that is already under construction at the same site.
“Any level of commitment to onshore the entire supply chain is a positive sign for American solar manufacturing and supply chain security,” Yogin Kothari, the chief strategy officer at the SEMA Coalition trade group that advocates for U.S. solar manufacturers against cheap Chinese imports, told me in a text message Tuesday night. “We can make solar panels here — we just have to have the commitment to do it.”
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New Yorkers could receive $200 rebates from the state as part of Albany’s effort to soothe the pinch of rising electricity prices. On Tuesday, Newsday reported that the program would be part of the state budget agreement, which Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and the Democrat-led legislature are still working to finalize. It wouldn’t be the first check the Hochul administration is sending out to voters as the former lieutenant governor, who initially came to power when former Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned over alleged sexual misconduct, runs for reelection in November. Last year, in a bid to combat the sting of inflation, the state issued rebates ranging from $150 to $400 depending on filing status and adjusted gross income in 2023.
Though it’s home to the world’s largest known reserves of lithium, landlocked Bolivia’s vast resources have largely remained undeveloped after two decades of rule by a left-wing government leery of foreign investment. The right-wing government that finally broke the Movimiento al Socialismo party’s grip on power in La Paz last year has sought to tap the so-called white gold in its salt flats, particularly as Washington looks for new sources of metals outside of supply chains China largely controls. New documents published Tuesday by the left-wing journalist Ollie Vargas appear to show the Bolivia’s Public Prosecutors Office’s warrants to arrest protesters and labor leaders connected to recent nationwide strikes on charges that include terrorism. “Bolivia’s government has ordered the arrest of all the main leaders of the indigenous movements and mineworkers unions,” Vargas wrote in a post on X. “They’re being charged for Terrorism for having organised the general strike against hunger. Strike continues regardless, now in day 7.” Clashes between law enforcement and protesters started last week.
China’s hydrogen industry is booming. Its sales of electrolyzers are beating out domestic manufacturers in Europe. Fuel cell vehicles are hitting the roads. Hydrogen refueling stations are opening. But the Chinese hydrogen sector with the highest volume of orders coming from overseas is for something simpler: Two-wheeled, hydrogen-powered motorcycles. That’s according to the latest China Hydrogen Bulletin, in which analyst Jian Wu reported from the 6th China International Consumer Products Expo on the island province of Hainan that a maker of the motorcycles had secured $300 million in overseas orders.
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Current conditions: Tropical Depression Two strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha yesterday, recycling the name of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season’s first major storm • Floods from the monsoon season killed at least four people in Vietnam and left as many missing • Lightning in Utah sparked the state’s latest wildfire, the Meeks Fire, near the Strawberry Reservoir.
President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again feud with America’s northern neighbor is, as of Monday, back on again. The White House imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, accusing the nation’s geographically nearest ally and closest cultural bedfellow of unfairly discriminating against American automotives, alcohol, and dairy products. The move threatens to unleash what the Associated Press called “a new wave of economic chaos, with risks of higher inflation and further fraying of relations between two nations that had been closely woven together before Trump’s return” to office.
In its announcement, the Trump administration said the new tariffs would “apply to all covered goods regardless of whether a good originates under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement,” referring to the Trump-negotiated North American free trade agreement, which the U.S. opted this month not to renew. This struck my colleague Robinson Meyer as ominous. “If the White House now thinks it can levy taxes despite that pact,” he wrote in yesterday’s Heatmap Daily newsletter, “then the risks for Ford, General Motors, and their suppliers have increased.”
Perhaps the only thing growing faster than voters’ antipathy toward data centers is the market’s desire for more of them. Demand for data centers is ballooning at such a rapid clip that BloombergNEF just raised its total forecast for 2035 by a jaw-dropping 83%. The latest data outlining the best-case scenario from the energy consultancy, released Tuesday morning, shows the total installed capacity of U.S. data centers reaching 194 gigawatts in the next nine years. The surge reflects how quickly new server farms are flowing into the project pipeline. In a bid to hedge against the continued expansion, BNEF created a new scenario based on the implied power demand of forecast shipments of microchips for AI computers up to 2033. This scenario implies an even greater need for power: 229 gigawatts of demand from data centers in just the next seven years. And that doesn’t count the continued growth of demand from data centers carrying out non-AI functions, such as traditional cloud computing workloads. This comes as the latest Heatmap Pro polling shows that seven in 10 Americans now oppose data centers in their backyard, a marked shift from last September, when the same survey showed voters evenly split in support and opposition.
That ballooning demand is already showing up in power markets. Of the $16.4 billion in charges from PJM Interconnection’s most recent capacity auction, $6.3 billion — some 38% — stems from data centers. That’s what Joseph Bowring, president of PJM’s independent market monitor Monitoring Analytics, told Utility Dive last week. In the last four base capacity auctions the nation’s largest grid operator held, 46% of capacity charges were driven by data centers. “PJM is continuing to act like it’s business as usual,” Bowring told the trade publication Friday. “You have to open your eyes and recognize that it is really a paradigm shift, and failing to do that imposes costs on other customers.”

On a logical level, it’s a simple supply and demand problem. The supply of electricity is not growing as quickly as demand, all while the Trump administration eliminates subsidies that once buoyed investments in new supply. As a result, corporate electricity deals look poised to increase in price. But not for every generating source. New estimates from LevelTen, a marketplace for power purchase agreements, found that solar PPAs were 5% cheaper in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. In a piece by my colleague Matthew Zeitlin, LevelTen attributed the decline to an especially steep drop in prices in California’s electricity market. Excluding CAISO, solar PPA prices nationwide dropped slightly less than 2%. While hyperscalers are still buying solar, LevelTen found that commercial and industrial buyers are pulling back, creating a “continued softening in the market’s buy-side.” “We saw a lot less corporate energy buyers in the space in 2025 — 40% less — and that is just due to the increase of hyperscalers and data centers getting projects and snapping them up quickly,” Sarah Wolf, LevelTen’s director of North American transactions, told Matthew.
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Ah, Germany. The land of the Autobahn. Diesel-powered industry. The purring engines of BMWs, Porsches, and Mercedes-Benzes. The nation’s automotive might makes its latest milestone particularly important: Electric vehicles just outsold gas and diesel cars for the first time. New data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority shows that Germans registered 84,057 new electric vehicles in June, a more than 78% year-over-year increase. Traditional hybrids, meanwhile, saw 83,315 registrations, followed by gasoline-powered cars with 60,796, diesel with 33,862, and plug-in hybrids with 32,212. “The automotive history books will need a new page sooner rather than later, after electric cars outsold every other fuel type in Germany for the first time,” InsideEVs reporter Iulian Dnistran wrote. “It’s a huge shift in Europe’s biggest car market, which has traditionally been associated with diesel-powered cars that could travel hundreds of miles at highway speeds without breaking a sweat.” The Tesla Model Y was by far the best-selling EV in Germany, with nearly twice as many registrations as the No. 2 vehicle, the Volkswagen ID.3.
Putting on my Mesopotamian metal merchant hat again: Copper prices are back up. The price of the metal needed for virtually all electrical infrastructure rose 1.3% to just under $14,000 per metric ton, according to Mining.com. The price ultimately hovered at the red metal’s record set in early June. The spike stems from data showing rising tightness in the Chinese market, namely a hike in the premium buyers will pay in Shanghai for shipments of the metal. The price hiked further after a series of storms halted production in Chile for a few days.
While the West dithers on hydrogen, China is making huge strides. It already may be too late to catch up to Beijing on manufacturing the key machinery needed to produce the zero-carbon fuel. The latest data point, via Hydrogen Insight: China just shipped its largest electrolyzer order yet to Europe, via Romania.
A new report from LevelTen Energy shows that advance purchase prices are down for solar but up for wind.
The renewables market is in a state of flux. On the one hand, the tax credits that were a key pillar of wind and solar project financing have started to expire, while the race to be up and running in time to claim those that remain is on.
At the same time the renewables industry is getting whacked by federal tax policy, it’s also getting a shot in the arm from hyperscalers and data center developers, many of whom are hungry for power that can be deployed quickly to the grid and complies with their clean energy pledges.
“There’s a massive onslaught of demand, not enough supply to meet that demand and then Trump’s administration effort to slow down certain types of supply,” Jon Powers, the president of solar and storage developer CleanCapital, told me, describing how data center buyers are snapping up whatever power they can.
So what does this mean for pricing in the market? LevelTen, a marketplace for power purchase agreements, looked at the data and, in a report released Tuesday, found that solar PPAs were almost 5% cheaper in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter.
LevelTen attributed this decline in part to an especially steep drop in prices in CAISO, the California electricity market; excluding CAISO, solar PPA prices dropped slightly less than 2%. And while those hyperscalers are still buying, LevelTen found, other commercial and industrial customers are pulling back — what the analysts described as a “continued softening in the market’s buy-side.”
“We saw a lot less corporate energy buyers in the space in 2025 — 40% less — and that is just due to the increase of hyperscalers and data centers getting projects and snapping them up quickly,” Sarah Wolf, LevelTen’s director of North American transactions, told me.
To explain California specifically, Wolf said that the market there tends to be more volatile than in the rest of the country due to the expense and regulatory hurdles to development. With fewer new projects coming online, especially as compared to a larger, more light-touch market like Texas, individual project pricing can swing average prices more.
The tax credit cliff is “creating this very competitive atmosphere, where buyers are feeling like — in order to safe harbor their equipment, to keep on the development timelines that they have — they need to get a PPA in place,” Wolf said. “They’re looking competitively for a buyer. That’s driving some pricing down.” The same holds for renewables developers, who have wanted to get a PPA in place as quickly as possible, giving leverage to buyers who can demand lower prices.
The other factor driving down prices LevelTen identified was potential revisions to standards issued by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, which are currently the subject of a long and fraught overhaul process.
“We have many buyers who are fully leaning in and want to contract now,” Wolf said. “And we have buyers who are in a kind of a ’wait and see’ — they want to better understand what that’s going to be, so there’s not a risk that they might have to unwind something.”
As for wind, PPA prices have actually risen, according to LevelTen’s data — up 5.5% on the quarter and 17.5% on the year. “We’re also seeing wind just being less competitive than solar,” Wolf added.
The report attributed this to tariffs, gas prices pushing up delivery costs, and the “ongoing federal permitting bottleneck that has largely ground new-build wind development to a standstill.” That means specifically the Department of Defense’s efforts to hold up wind projects on potentially spurious national security grounds.
This has meant a “fast-dwindling pipeline of viable wind assets,” LevelTen’s report says, “and price premiums for fully permitted projects available for offtake.”
In short, the best news for individual wind developers may be bad news for the industry — and the climate — as a whole.
Cement, plywood, and some electronic equipment will face 50% levies. But the real cost is much higher.
Here we go again. The United States will impose new 50% tariffs on a slew of imports from Canada, the White House announced on Monday afternoon. The trade levies — which will hit more than 500 categories of goods, from anoraks, beer, and curtains, to yarn, wool, and whey protein — will take effect in 30 days.
The new tariffs don’t seem to be wildfire-related. President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs last week after smoke from Canadian wildfires drifted south over the northern U.S. border, but administration officials have claimed to CNN that these new levies were already in motion by then.
Even so, a few aspects of the announcement stand out. Most important, at least from a generalist perspective, is the legal mechanism that President Trump is using to apply them: Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. This passage, which has never been used by a previous president to levy tariffs, allows the United States to tax trade from countries that the president says have “discriminated against” U.S. commerce.
Significant, too, is the fact the White House asserts this new kind of tariff could apply to any kind of product — even those that would normally be covered by the North American free trade pact, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. So far, the “Big Three” automakers — whose supply chains cross the Mexican or Canadian borders half a dozen times before a car is finally assembled — have avoided major tariff danger because auto parts and other inputs fall under the USMCA’s auspices. If the White House now thinks it can levy taxes despite that pact, then the risks for Ford, General Motors, and their suppliers have increased.
Energy and critical minerals are exempt from the new tariffs, so Canadian crude oil, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and electricity will presumably keep flowing into the United States. (That explicit carve-out might be ominous in its own right, because energy had been protected by USMCA so far, too.) By omitting energy, Trump and his officials may be calculating they can avoid major inflationary hazards from this round of tariffs.
Who knows. In any case, to my eye, these tariffs do seem like they could aggravate construction costs and possibly contribute to wider U.S. inflation. There’s already some evidence that data centers are driving a new wave of inflation, for instance, by hiking construction input and labor costs. Yet data centers use a lot of cement — and cement will now face a 50% tariff under the new regime. So too will plywood, plaster, and paperboard, as well as industrial cooling equipment, chemicals, and some circuit boards.
I could keep listing the potential economic costs here — I could point out that overall inflation risk is rising or that average U.S. gas prices rose to $4 a gallon today on the Iran war news — but I think it’s important to look at least one step beyond the hits to commerce alone.
I mentioned earlier that these tariffs are meant to punish “discrimination.” In this case, some of the “discrimination” appears to be what some Canadian provinces did to retaliate against the president’s earlier tariffs. The state-owned liquor stores in Quebec and Ontario, for instance, stopped buying U.S.-made booze after Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Canada in March 2025; those boycotts are mentioned by name in today’s proclamation. Canada, you see, is not supposed to respond to Trump’s tariffs. It is just supposed to take it — just like it’s supposed to take the constant stream of falsehoods, abuse, belittling, and invasion threat.
Over the past few years, politicians and pundits have learned to respond to Trump’s policies by appealing to U.S. self-interest — by explaining how the president’s policies are making Americans poorer. It is a sensible strategy for a morally denuded era. A recent statement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer about Canada, for example, criticized the president for hurting “our closest ally and partner … right when summer tourism season is arriving.” I get the move here — and I think, in some sense, Schumer is trying to avoid polarizing Trump’s treatment of Canada along partisan lines — but Canadians are more than their tourism dollars.
For the past several years, Trump has threatened to strip Canada of its sovereignty and its dignity. He has treated what was once a deep and secure relationship as something to be bartered and mined and dissipated. It is a mucilaginous approach to statecraft, and as recent reporting has made clear, its long-term costs will exceed any simple accounting. We Americans have been robbed of an honorable friendship. Some losses cannot be counted in dollars.