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On rate hikes, diesel, and Holtec’s aborted IPO

Current conditions: Severe storms are drenching a broad swath of the Midwest with heavy rain from Des Moines to Fort Wayne • Intense downpours put all 76 of Thailand’s provinces, or changwat, on a five-day flooding alert, ending on Sunday • Tropical Storm Dujuan has strengthened in the Pacific en route to Japan.

The Trump administration has narrowed the federal government’s interpretation of the Endangered Species Act to only consider intentional targeting of protected animals illegal. The move, part of what The New York Times called “a seismic shift” in the application of one of the nation’s bedrock conservation laws, would essentially free energy companies from the need to, for example, invest in infrastructure to keep migratory birds from making deadly landings in ponds of oil and gas slurry. Killing endangered animals “almost always happens incidentally, in the course of economic activity,” the newspaper noted. It’s unclear whether the legal change would also apply to one of the industries President Donald Trump most frequently antagonizes for its accidental killing of birds: the wind industry.
When President Donald Trump announced an energy truce between Ukraine and Russia, he promised that a halt to attacks on pipelines and refineries would lower prices on diesel worldwide, insisting the Iran War wasn’t to blame. But half of Russia’s six top diesel-producing refineries were forced to significantly cut back or completely stop production this month due to damage from Ukrainian drone attacks, according to a Reuters analysis published Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is making a $135 billion bet on Arctic oil that OilPrice.com suggested “could save his Ukraine war.”
U.S. energy companies, meanwhile, are storming into a country in America’s backyard that — unlike the Kremlin’s attempt at a blitzkrieg capture of Kyiv’s leaders in 2022 — successfully decapitated a rebellious regime and reasserted Washington’s regional dominance. I’m talking, of course, about Venezuela. Harold Hamm, the oil tycoon behind the U.S. shale boom, told the Heartlander News yesterday that his company had signed a tentative agreement to explore one of the South American nation’s oil fields. New York-based Heeney Capital is eyeing a gold mine in Venezuela, per Reuters. Bloomberg reported that the company is also looking to ship aluminum from Venezuela to the U.S. Exxon Mobil, meanwhile, is “nearing a preliminary deal” to invest in Venezuela oil, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark federal interest rate by a quarter point Wednesday. The U.S. central bank’s first rate change since Chairman Kevin Warsh took over in May, and its first rate hike since 2023, will bring the federal funds rate to between 3.75% and 4%. The increase could make raising capital “more difficult” for “capital-intensive renewable and clean energy industries,” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin wrote yesterday.
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Lawmakers in the House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the first major bill to curb the costs of the AI boom with legislation Politico described as “intended to shield Americans from potential energy costs associated with data centers.” The Ratepayer Protection Act passed in a 417 to 3 vote. The bipartisan win hands the GOP a victory ahead of the November election on one of the issues firing up voters the most. The bill would require states to consider a federal standard guaranteeing that large power consumers pay for 100% of the costs of new generation and transmission upgrades, but falls short of a direct mandate.
Meanwhile, the House split along partisan lines for another bill on California’s right to regulate pollution more strictly than the federal government. The chamber voted 216 to 211 to bar California from setting strict new limits on air pollution from ships docked at the state’s ports, marking what The New York Times called “the latest salvo by Republicans against the state’s pioneering environmental policies.” The move comes after Congress last year banned Sacramento from imposing a ban on gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035.
One of the most significant nuclear stock market debuts of the past few years has hit a major hiccup. On Wednesday night, Holtec Nuclear Corporation suspended plans for an initial public offering, citing “market conditions.” Bloomberg and Reuters first reported the postponement, which I confirmed with Holtec last night. “Holtec will continue to evaluate the timing of the offering in the future,” the company told me. With plans to restart a nuclear reactor for the first time in U.S. history in the coming months, Holtec is the only company likely to bring (somewhat) new atomic electricity onto the grid before 2030. The company owns several other decommissioning nuclear plants, where it plans to build its own in-house small modular reactors.
Another major player in the burgeoning nuclear market, meanwhile, hit a major regulatory milestone. Blue Energy, a developer that bills itself as “agnostic” to reactor technologies, is instead focused on building facilities that will initially run on gas and eventually transition to reactors, with GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300 — the closest rival to Holtec’s SMR-300 — centering in those plans at the moment. On Wednesday, Blue Energy submitted its application for a construction permit to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for its inaugural gas-to-nuclear project in Port of Victoria, Texas. The submission makes Blue Energy one of just five companies so far to ask the NRC for permission to begin building. “This is serious work done by serious people for a serious project,” Blue Energy CEO Jake Jurewicz said in a statement. “This is another huge step towards building the world’s first gas-to-nuclear power plant and proving the Blue Energy approach to build nuclear in the safest, quickest, and most scalable way possible.”
The wine-dark sea is getting more briny. As its temperatures rise faster than the global ocean surface average, the Mediterranean Sea is growing saltier. The upper 100 meters of the sea between Europe and Africa have been about 2 degrees Celsius warmer than their 1950 to 1999 average, according to a study published in Geophysical Research Letters. “For us, what was alarming was the rate at which this is changing and the depths that such significant changes reach,” Elena Terzić, a physical oceanographer at the Ruđer Bošković Institute and lead author of the study, told Bloomberg. “The warming and salinification are statistically significant down to three or four thousand meters, and the speed-up itself reaches down to about 2,500 meters.”
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Current conditions: Tropical Storm Olana is headed for Hawaii with yet more flooding and powerful winds as the state continues to recover from previous storms • Tropical Cyclone Arnab is strengthening into a “severe” storm as it approaches the northern coast of India’s Andhra Pradesh state near the port city of Visakhapatnam • In-fa has become a typhoon, en route by the end of this week to the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. territory that took the brunt of this month’s Super Typhoon Champi.
Call it Anthropic’s magnum Opus 5.5. The Claude maker filed its public paperwork Monday ahead of its planned stock market debut. Aside from the basic details of how the company makes money and what risks its technology may pose to humanity itself, Anthropic mentions the word “energy” at least 14 times in the section of the document outlining the risks to its business. “Climate” and “climate change” are mentioned just four times. The overarching concern, per my colleague Matthew Zeitlin’s rundown of the S-1 filing, is that the company “might not get enough power for data centers running its large language models,” and that “the pace of the energy infrastructure build-out “is generally behind the need.
Brazil’s national oil company, meanwhile, had a brutal day of trading on the stock market following left-wing Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise surge to reelection in Sunday’s runoff. Shares of Petrobras plunged 14% on the New York Stock Exchange by the time trading ended Monday evening. While conservative candidate Flávio Bolsonaro had promised more privatization and fewer environmental regulations, Lula has ramped up drilling, particularly offshore, as he seeks to capitalize on South America’s oil boom.

EQT Corporation bills itself as “America’s only large-scale, vertically integrated natural gas producer.” Soon it will also be the largest gas company in the nation. On Monday, the company announced plans to acquire Range Resources Corporation in a deal to create a North American gas giant worth more than $50 billion. The all-stock transaction would also establish the biggest gas producer in the U.S. by output. Combined, EQT and Range pump out 9 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day. The next largest shale gas producer in the U.S. is Expand Energy, at 7.5 billion cubic feet per day. The merged company would also command a network of pipelines and other midstream infrastructure that tops 3,700 miles. “This transaction brings together two of the highest-quality, longest-duration asset bases in North America and creates a company uniquely positioned for the next era of natural gas,” EQT CEO Toby Z. Rice said in a statement. “We believe this combination creates a must-own energy company capable of generating durable, through-cycle free cash flow while compounding value for shareholders for decades to come.”
The deal is a sign “U.S. gas consolidation is accelerating,” Salih Yilmaz, a senior oil analyst at the consultancy Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a post on X. “The bigger theme is consolidation: scale, concentration, and infrastructure control are becoming increasingly important in US gas, especially as LNG exports and power demand grow.”
U.S. orders for wind turbines vaulted to 2.8 gigawatts in the second quarter of this year — the highest since the end of 2023 — as developers scrambled to meet the deadlines to qualify for expiring tax credits, according to a new market analysis by the consultancy Wood Mackenzie. New Mexico saw the biggest surge as the SunZia megaproject, the largest wind farm ever built in the U.S., came online, raising the state to the top of the list of capacity additions. Despite the Trump administration’s efforts to kill or slow walk permits for wind projects, the industry is on track to add 39 gigawatts of new onshore wind farms by 2030. More than half the projects set to come online over the next two years are already under construction, meaning there’s little risk of disruption. Offshore wind, by contrast, tops out at 5 gigawatts, all of which is on course to be delivered in the next two years. “Policy is the variable with the greatest impact on wind installations,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Tyler Gifford said in a statement. “With tax credit expirations on the horizon, developers are prioritizing projects that can be operational by 2030, so the five-year onshore wind installation outlook remains stable.”
On the other side of the Atlantic, exports of wind turbines are booming. While Europe is still debating how to deal with the sudden rise of China’s wind companies, as I told you last week, the European Union's exports of wind turbines spiked by nearly 11% to $3.4 billion last year, Renewables Now reported.
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The climate movement, as virtually anyone involved will tell you, is broken. Even those who are part of it want to stop talking about “climate change,” according to the results of this year’s Heatmap Insiders Survey. Clean Air Task Force, one of the more pragmatic groups in the policy arena fighting for clean energy, is out with a new memo detailing the strategy it plans to use through the end of the decade. Dubbed CATF Forward, the plan is “designed to drive the global adoption of climate solutions, orienting around three clear impact priorities and rooted in the attributes that have made” the group “uniquely effective” since its launch 30 years ago. “The world’s increasingly complex climate and energy challenges require sober thinking and sharper focus,” Armond Cohen, CATF’s founder and executive director, said in a statement. “How do we protect climate in a world turned upside down?”
His answer:
All of that seems fairly straightforward. But the document is defined as much by what it omits as what it includes. Amid a growing debate over whether climate activists should keep targeting fossil fuel infrastructure, which my colleague Robinson Meyer aired out nicely on a recent episode of our podcast Shift Key, CATF isn’t pushing for boycotts of fossil fuels or, you know, committing crimes in the name of saving the planet.
India’s solar factories have boomed in recent years as the world’s most populous country turns to photovoltaics to meet surging domestic electricity demand and supply overseas buyers looking for alternatives to China. But the subcontinent has struggled to take on China’s dominance of the solar supply chain’s upstream elements. On Monday, Noida-based Jakson Solar announced plans to invest over $525 million into manufacturing solar cells, ingots, and wafers. The company plans to commission a 3-gigawatt cell factory by the end of next year, managing director Ivan Saha told Reuters on the sideline of a conference. The company then plans to stand up a 3-gigawatt ingot and wafer plant by the third quarter of 2028. That will all feed into Jakson’s existing 1.2-gigawatt module-making factory.
Indonesia and Malaysia have launched more than 100 cloud-seeding missions this year in an attempt to engineer rain to quench parched lands as El Niño worsens droughts. The worst wildfire season in decades has shrouded the region in devastating toxic smog. But the high cost of the effort, including using dry ice to break up warm air that traps smog on the ground, “have so far brought little in the way of lasting results,” Bloomberg reported. “Sometimes, there’s a lot of political pressure to do things that may not be really well-founded scientifically,” Steven Siems, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne and the co-chair of an expert team on weather modification at the World Meteorological Organization, told the newswire.
It’s amazing what you can do with a repurposed car engine.
Venture capitalists love a system that fits inside a shipping container. But that kind of modularity has been hard to pull off in the low-carbon fuels industry, where producers have generally remained yoked to the prevailing wisdom of economies of scale as the key to profitability. That’s led to enormous, capital-intensive facilities packed with complex, custom-built machinery churning out fuels and chemicals like hydrogen, methane, and ammonia.
But Massachusetts-based startup Emvolon thinks it can upend this model with its compact, prefabricated chemical plants powered by the likes of repurposed car engines. Its modular systems convert methane captured from landfills and other sources into energy-dense liquid methanol on-site, making it easier to transport to customers. On Tuesday, the company announced $22 million in new funding — an undisclosed mix of Series A equity and non-dilutive federal and state grants — to build its first commercial-scale system at a landfill near Houston, in partnership with biogas company Montauk Renewables.
The approach aims to solve a persistent logistics problem. Economics dictate that commodity producers typically locate near a high-volume source of feedstock or a pipeline that can deliver it. But for captured methane — a potential feedstock for lower-carbon fuels, chemicals, and fertilizers — that’s often not an option. The potent greenhouse gas escapes from geographically dispersed landfills, farms, and wastewater treatment plants, many of which are too small to support a large gas-to-liquids facility and too far from existing pipelines. Trucking the gas to a centralized plant is generally prohibitively expensive, often leaving operators to either flare it or let it escape unabated.
“We are really kind of burning money, creating a lot of emissions when we could be capturing this and making high-value products,” Emmanuel Kasseris, Emvolon’s CEO, told me in an August conversation about the company’s technology, which it spun out of MIT.
“We really try to flip the script completely,” Kasseris said of the startup’s modular approach. Rather than one large facility, the company aims to produce “a few tons to maybe tens of tons per day” of methanol for the $40 billion global market. For comparison, conventional gas-to-liquid facilities can produce hundreds of times more product daily.
Emvolon’s technology is “engine agnostic,” running on repurposed engines from used cars and diesel generators as well as new builds modified for the startup’s purposes. The engines take in captured methane from landfills, farms, or gas-flaring sites. But instead of burning the fuel completely like a standard combustion engine, Emvolon limits the oxygen supply, triggering only partial combustion of the methane to produce a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide known as syngas. The company then feeds that mixture into a conventional reactor, where a catalyst converts it into liquid methanol that can be shipped in standard tanker trucks.
The process requires relatively few modifications to standard internal combustion engines, Kasseris told me, thereby bringing the economics of mass production to small-scale chemical production. “You’re taking something that comes from an assembly line, you repurpose it — changing sensors, controls, simple things that require a lot of [intellectual property] but are not expensive — and you build the plant around it,” he explained. The goal is to offer customers a four-year payback period sans low-carbon fuel subsidies.
Emvolon is now attempting to push that logic a step further. For the second stage of the conversion process, the company is working to swap out its conventional reactor with another modified engine in order to “replace even more one-off process equipment” with mass-produced components. The Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy awarded Emvolon a $2.3 million grant to develop this part of its system.
But the startup doesn’t need to have this additional piece of technology dialed in to start securing customers. In August, global commodities merchant Freepoint Commodities signed on as the startup’s primary buyer, securing priority rights to purchase at least $450 million worth of Emvolon’s biomethanol for use across maritime shipping, aviation, heavy transport, and specialty chemicals. The agreement also gives Freepoint priority rights to invest in or lend to future Emvolon projects, a provision Kasseris described as the anchor for the startup’s project financing platform.
The company’s first commercial projects are designed to produce up to 50,000 metric tons of biomethanol annually across multiple sites, with the Freepoint agreement structured to scale that output to 300,000 metric tons per year. Because each plant should cost only “a few million dollars,” Kasseris said, the company can spread out its risk rather than bet on “the half a billion dollar e-fuels plant” common to the alternative fuels industry. If one plant runs into trouble, the setback should be manageable, and the company can keep churning out and deploying its modular units elsewhere.
“This is great for scaling,” Kasseris told me. “It’s just very different. It’s just more boxes.”
Most Americans still say they would oppose a data center being built near where they live, but the facilities’ standing has improved among Republicans, a new Heatmap Pro poll finds.
The American public’s backlash against data centers may finally be starting to slow down, although the facilities remain staggeringly unpopular, a new poll finds.
Seventy-one percent of Americans said they would oppose a data center being built near where they live, according to a new Heatmap Pro poll conducted by Embold Research earlier this month.
That is an abysmal finding for technology companies and would-be developers of the computing facilities. But it actually represents an improvement from previous polling, and it suggests one of the fastest shifts in public opinion in recent memory may be tapering off.
That shift has been swift. As recently as September of last year, about 43% of Americans said they would support a data center being built near where they live, and Americans broadly appeared to be evenly split on the infrastructure, according to Heatmap Pro polling. Eleven months later, 75% of Americans told the same poll that they would oppose a nearby data center — a 32 point shift. That monumental turnaround helped make data centers a defining issue in this election cycle.
That backlash has transformed the economics of the data center boom, the largest infrastructure buildout in recent U.S. history. The overwhelming majority of data center projects now face some degree of community opposition, Heatmap Pro reporting suggests. More than $260 billion in proposed data centers have been canceled this year after meeting local opposition. The artificial intelligence company Anthropic even flagged the infrastructure slowdown on Monday when it filed for its initial public offering, which is widely expected to be among the largest ever.
Now our new survey shows that Americans’ rejection of the enormous computing facilities may itself be slowing. The small observed drop, which only slightly exceeds the survey’s margin of error, was driven by a four-point decline in the share of Americans who said they would “strongly oppose” the technology.

While Americans of all parties improved their view of data centers, the change was most pronounced among Republicans. In August, 23% of GOP voters said that they would support a data center being built near where they live. In the new poll, conducted after weeks of favorable campaigning by President Trump, 34% of Republicans said they would support a data center slated for their area, while the share of Republicans who said they would oppose it fell from 66% to 58%. Data centers’ standing among independents improved by nine points during the same period.
Democrats remain largely unified against the infrastructure, and data centers’ improvement among that group was just outside the margin of error.
While Americans of every age, race, gender, and partisan ID remain more opposed to local data center development than in favor of it, their standing has also improved among men since the summer. In August, 21% of men said they would support a data center being built near where they live. Now, 28% of men would support one.