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On permitting reform, Japanese rare earths, and Rolls-Royce nuclear

Current conditions: Portland, Oregon, just broke a 60-year heat record yesterday, with temperatures topping 95 degrees Fahrenheit • The South Fork Fire in Nebraska's Panhandle has now scorched nearly 40,000 acres • Winds of up to 45 miles per hour are whipping half of Vanuatu’s six provinces.
The price of crude fell to its lowest level in three months Monday after President Donald Trump announced the bones of a ceasefire agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In response to Sunday evening’s news of a memorandum of understanding, which New York Times reporter David Sanger called “more like a table of contents” on yesterday’s episode of “The Daily,” oil prices dropped by nearly 5% on the main European benchmark. Murban crude, the index used for oil coming out of the United Arab Emirates’ biggest port, plunged by 7%.
The truce news comes as GasBuddy data shows national U.S. price averages for gasoline falling by $0.093 over the last week. The national average is down $0.52 from a month ago, though it’s still $0.91 higher per gallon than a year ago. “Average gasoline prices fell in 47 states over the last week, with the national average dropping below $4 per gallon late Sunday for the first time since mid-April,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in a post on X. “The decline came as oil prices moved sharply lower in reaction to news of a potential deal between the United States and Iran, though it remains to be seen whether the agreement will hold.”
Americans are rooting for Washington to work out its on-again, off-again effort to overhaul federal permitting on energy infrastructure. That’s according to a new poll from Blue Rose Research shared exclusively with me for this newsletter. Asked about making it faster and easier to build energy infrastructure, 60% of voters said they supported such policy reforms. Another 62%, including half of self-identified Trump supporters, said the president should not have unilateral authority to cancel approved projects, a key Democratic demand in Congress’ bipartisan negotiations. When the survey, taken in late May, asked its roughly 20,000 participants about support for data centers near their homes, the results aligned with Heatmap Pro’s most recent polling. But the poll found that views softened on data centers if companies made concrete commitments to bring electricity costs down.
The findings come as a bipartisan Senate duo introduces legislation to limit the White House’s power to cancel or slow-walk approvals for all forms of energy projects, E&E News reported. On Tuesday, Senators Tom Cotton, the Arkansas Republican, and Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat from Nevada, will introduce the FREEDOM Act. While it’s unclear how closely they’re aligned, I reported earlier this year on details of the bill’s House version.
If you’re looking for a sign that American solar is going to keep booming even after the federal tax credits for building and generating power from panels expire in a few weeks, it’s worth taking a look at the Steel River Energy Center. The project in Arkansas aims to add 1.6 gigawatts of solar power and 1.9 gigawatt-hours of battery storage in a two-phase buildout. The California-based developer, Cypress Creek Energy, said last week it had locked down $3.5 billion in financing. A third phase, set to come online in 2029, will round out the total project capacity to 2.5 gigawatts of solar generation and 2.9 gigawatt-hours of storage, making it one of the largest solar and storage builds in the U.S., according to Power Magazine. The entire project is set to use panels produced by First Solar, one of the largest domestic manufacturers in the U.S.
Meanwhile, the long duration energy storage startup Energy Dome inked a deal Monday with Salt River Project to sell the utility that serves the greater Phoenix metropolitan area a 19-megawatt, 10-hour CO2-based battery. As I told you last summer, Energy Dome has a partnership with Google to deploy the technology, which looks something like an indoor tennis tent filled with carbon dioxide that can store energy for far longer without any losses than a lithium-ion battery. The Phoenix project is part of the Google partnership. “Arizona’s sustained growth makes it one of the most compelling energy markets in the country,” Claudio Spadacini, Energy Dome’s founder and chief executive, said in a statement. “At a time when AI growth and rising demand are reshaping America’s energy landscape, the CO2 Battery offers the scalable, dispatchable capacity needed to strengthen U.S. energy dominance.”
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The Japanese government is laying out plans to develop potential mining projects in Greenland to meet its demand for rare earths and other critical minerals without relying on China. That’s according to a report in Nikkei over the weekend. As I told you back in February, Japan is stepping up its efforts to secure new mineral supplies, including taking a leading role in establishing a new deep sea mining industry.
A sizable chunk of that $550 billion that Tokyo pledged to invest in the U.S. last year, meanwhile, is headed toward building out an export supply chain for nuclear technology. At least, that’s the latest update Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick gave to the Japanese financial newswire last week.
Honda has pumped the brakes on its entire North American electric vehicle effort as the Japanese auto giant stares down its first annual loss since 1957, expected to top $15.7 billion. The move comes less than two years after Honda went all in on the O Series that Automotive Manufacturing Solutions called “deliberately, provocatively unlike anything the brand had previously produced.” Today, the trade publication noted, “every legacy OEM’s electrification strategy is now under scrutiny.”
It’s been a good few days for Rolls-Royce. The iconic British industrial manufacturer just won a deal to build Sweden’s next nuclear plant and joined a United Kingdom-Japanese effort to work on building modern, large-scale, high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The deals come less than two months after Rolls-Royce secured a deal with the British government to build its small modular reactors in Britain. “This is another major endorsement of Rolls-Royce SMR’s technology and a significant boost for Britain’s nuclear export ambitions,” Nuclear Industry Association CEO Tom Greatrex, who heads the largest British nuclear trade group, said in a statement. “Coming so soon after its selection by Great British Energy – Nuclear, it underlines the growing international confidence in the technology and the strength of the British nuclear industry.”
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And more of the week’s top news around project fights.
1. Kansas City, Missouri – Data centers are so toxic that politicians are using them as boogeymen in totally unrelated policy discussions.
2. Ingham County, Michigan – We have our first major anti-data center candidate in a Democratic congressional primary.
3. Nueces County, Texas - The Longhorn State is on a bull run towards data center hostility.
4. Pulaski County, Arkansas - We have yet another municipal employee losing their job over helping a data center.
5. Marathon County, Wisconsin - Yet again rural residents are poised to lose against state permitting primacy laws benefiting renewable energy.
This week’s conversation is with Grant Gutierrez, head of community impacts at carbon management company Carbon Direct. This week Carbon Direct published a white paper Gutierrez authored on opposition around data centers he’s studied. His research reinforces much of what Heatmap Pro has uncovered, but I was particularly intrigued by a topline finding – that transparency is the most common thread in the 46 data center fights he looked into. Was he seeing what I’ve been seeing? So I asked him to hop onto a Zoom call and let me know his thoughts.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
If you were to explain the findings in your white paper to someone at a bar… how would you put it?
What I would say is that we were really interested in the kinds of concerns communities were articulating as they were opposing or resisting data center development in the U.S. To answer and explore those questions, we developed our own data center cancellation tracker where we looked for cases where we could find a strong correlation between cancelation or withdrawal status and opposition. Then we did high-level analyses of the demographics surrounding those data centers, using standard best practices from environmental justice methodologies and pulling sociodemographic and environmental burden characters from EPA’s EJScreen tool. We were mostly looking at public records. Press materials. City council meeting minutes. Things you wouldn’t have to dig too hard to find.
The kinds of communities we saw successfully resisting data centers tracked across the demographic middle of the United States – slightly more middle income, slightly more white than a majority of the American community, but mostly what you’d consider the average American community.
What is the intended audience of this paper and what are you hoping to communicate?
I think it’s important for data center developers and the capital behind them is that they need to move their engagement to early stage, responsible design. A second audience is regulators, city councils, and local zoning commissions about how to engage with developers and advocate for the right disclosure requirements from industry.
The key topline message is that developers who treat community engagement as a permitting formality instead of a critical early stage input are burdening communities, breaking trust. This is resulting in reputational risk for developers, stranded assets, losing capital – and the loss of future opportunities as developers want to build 21st century infrastructure.
Walk me through what you saw evaluating these projects. What’s the development pattern that leads to such opposition?
We saw five key themes. Some of them you might expect – concerns around natural resources, water impacts, electricity rates, land. The rural character came up quite consistently. And then there was a lack of transparency through the use of NDAs.
The NDA example I was surprised to see was the most consistent in all of our case studies. Communities are largely concerned with the process that unfolds as much as the impacts. That’s a very important signal that transcends political lines. Communities want to be heard, involved in the process. They want large infrastructural development with impacts to listen to their concerns. When those decisions are made behind NDAs or with no transparency or equitable engagement, communities quickly mobilize and organize at a hyperlocal level and are successful in opposing these data centers.
I know there are a number of companies out there – without naming names – that are putting responsible development principles forward. The ones we advocate for across our business, whether we’re working in carbon removal or other things. I see companies leading and saying, if we’re involved in this infrastructure, we are not going to sign an NDA. Those who are pushing forward renewable energy commitments, community benefit agreements, and local public-private partnerships are leading with transparency and equity in their engagements.
How any of this carries in the broader industry is yet to be seen.
In your report you point to various ways opposition can crop up to a project. One of those ways was due to the presence of co-located gas – you note that gas power at a data center engendered environmental opponents, which then strengthened those fighting a data center. Can you elaborate on whether you think a new gas power presence is making it harder to get a data center built?
The case you’re pointing to, that’s the Ballico case where on top of the data center there was a 3,500 megawatt co-located gas plant. That quickly led to major community concerns and a partnership with the Southern Environmental Law Center, which became the legal anchor for thinking through the opposition here and commissioned the technical evidence, and provided the legal [support] there.
You see a broad coalition coalesce around not only the data center concern but the climate concerns that arise. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a repeated concern around the expansion of fossil energy and combustion sources going hand in hand with community opposition and organizing on data centers. But that remains to be seen.
What in your research have you seen when you compare opposition to data centers and campaigns against, let’s say, fossil fuels? Or mining? Or renewables?
What I think about with data centers is they’re the highways of the 21st century. As we know through the highway projects in the U.S., there were major disproportionate impacts on communities of color. I think there’s potential for data centers if they follow that playbook to have that same impact.
When it comes to comparing these, that’s something I have not done yet. But I think there’s a few things happening. I think the scale and scope of the buildout is taking the American public by surprise. Articulation around impacts to natural resources and electricity prices in a heightened political climate and a difficult economy. It’s also the existential problem AI introduces, which is the role AI plays in society. This is unique compared to other kinds of extraction, which feed technologies already at play.
How do you feel about the fact that so many of us in energy, environment and climate are now talking about data centers all the time?
Never in my career, working in carbon removal and nature based solutions, I never thought data centers would be a major focus in my career as an environmental justice advocate and social scientist.
Data centers are probably emerging to be one of the biggest environmental justice problems of our time so while it’s not something I planned to work on, I am emboldened to see the response from the nonprofit community and others trying to wrap their heads around this. What is the right kind of information? What does the public need to know? How do we advocate for our communities and build the world we would like to build?
While data centers are moving fast, I’m encouraged to see communities organizing and advocating for their own needs as well. Over the next few years, the story will tell itself.
Last question – what was the last song you listened to?
DtMF by Bad Bunny.
Plus, a look into the future of solar and wind tax credits.
Heatmap AM and Daily will be off tomorrow for the July 4 holiday, but we’ll see you back here on Monday.
We’re staring down the barrel of a holiday weekend here in the United States, so I’ll keep it quick. Two things:
July 4 will mark the formal end of the solar and wind tax credits in the United States. These incentives — which date back in some form to 1978 — were repealed by President Trump’s tax cuts and spending law last year. In order to qualify for the last of these subsidies, solar and wind projects must “commence construction” by Saturday and be ready to generate power by the end of 2027.
Although the policies haven’t yet expired, there’s already chatter about bringing them back. Some Democrats want to revive the incentives should they win back Congress and the White House in two or six years. But 2029 or 2032 will likely look different than the earlier years of this decade, when the Inflation Reduction Act was written and passed: Power prices are higher now, the grid more congested, and the federal budget more constrained. So today, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo previews one of the next big questions in climate policy: Should Democrats try to bring back the solar and wind tax credits?
Her story is great, and one disconnect in particular stuck out to me. Among the climate and clean energy wonks Emily interviewed, “everyone” agreed that “in the near term, the most important thing Congress could do to help clean energy is break down some of the non-cost barriers to development through permitting reform.” Permitting reform, after all, has no fiscal cost and could be achieved during this Congress.
But Democratic lawmakers themselves sound far less sure about its importance. “I don’t think Democrats can engage in a serious way with Republicans on permitting reform,” Representative Jared Huffman, the ranking member on the House Natural Resources Committee, tells her. Read the rest of Emily’s story for more on how lawmakers are thinking about this question, which will only get more important as we get closer to ‘28.
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We’ve begun to get Q2 sales data for global automakers — and there’s actually decent news for electric vehicles. Some highlights:
Enjoy your holiday weekend, and remember: We’re now in Q3. Thanks, as always, for reading.