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On budget negotiations, Climeworks, and a decline in shale

Current conditions: The chance of tornadoes continues through Tuesday in the Great Plains, Midwest, and South after weekend storms in the central U.S. killed at least 27 • The uncontained 18,000-acre Greer Fire in eastern Arizona is now encroaching on the towns of Greer, South Fork, and Eagar • No tropical cyclones have formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere yet this year. The average by May 19 is 3.5.
Late Sunday evening, lawmakers on the House Budget Committee reconvened to advance the reconciliation bill in a rare weekend vote. The package had initially failed to progress in a vote on Friday after Republican hardliners, including members of the House Freedom Caucus, expressed concerns that it did not go far enough to reduce the nation’s budget deficit. Though the package is still under negotiation — the four holdouts from Friday voted “present” to express their continued dissatisfaction — Politico reports that “Republican leaders put their commitments to the GOP holdouts in writing.” Per Punchbowl, that included House Speaker Mike Johnson proposing “a quicker phase-out of clean energy tax credits that were put into law as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Republican leaders tentatively agreed to cut off all credits by 2028.”
We’ve been closely following what such cuts — such as erasing the electric vehicle tax credit and others for energy efficiency, heat pumps, and rooftop solar, as well as deep cuts to clean energy programs — would do to the IRA. As things stand, Johnson has “a bruising negotiation ahead” as conservatives and moderate Republicans, especially those from states that have been significant beneficiaries of the economic and job-creating upsides of the IRA, remain at odds. The House Rules Committee will hold its hearing on the package on Wednesday morning at 1 a.m. — not a typo — with Republican leadership “warning us that they won’t send members home for the Memorial Day recess until the House passes the reconciliation bill,” Punchbowl writes.

The Swiss carbon removal company Climeworks allegedly fails to capture enough carbon even to offset its own emissions, an investigation by the Icelandic newspaper Heimildin found. According to the report, since Climeworks began operations in Iceland, “it has captured a maximum of 1,000 tons of CO2 in one year” — not enough to offset its emissions of 1,700 tons of CO2 in 2023. Climeworks operates two plants in Iceland: Orca and the recently opened Mammoth, which together have captured 2,400 tons of CO2, per the report. The goal is for Mammoth to capture more than 36,000 tons per year by the time it is fully installed later in 2025.
Last week, we covered in AM that Climeworks is preparing for significant cuts to its workforce. While the company confirmed those reports, its founder, Jan Wurzbacher, pushed back on Heimildin’s investigation on LinkedIn, writing that Orca and Mammoth have together captured 1,058 tons of net CO2, explaining that “the difference between theoretical and actual output is due to various factors such as planned and unplanned down-times, weather, filtering losses” and additionally, that Mammoth is “still under ramp-up.” In a fact-check on Twitter, Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, formerly of Breakthrough Energy, added that “operational challenges are to be expected with scale up of any technology, let alone one as nascent and challenging as DAC,” but that Heimildin’s report also “clearly shows the challenges of scaling a necessary climate technology that doesn’t have a market.”
Despite his calls to “drill, baby, drill,” President Trump “is set to preside over a decline in shale production,” with U.S. oil executives warning that the industry is at a “tipping point,” The Wall Street Journal reports. Though crude oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, S&P Global Commodities Insights expects production to dip by 13.33 million barrels a day next year, or about 1%.
Trump’s tariffs and OPEC’s recent decision to accelerate oil production are expected to add to the decline in U.S. oil. Production in the Permian Basin was already slowing, and with oil prices around $62.49 a barrel — well below the $85 benchmark one driller said would “encourage new drilling” — many companies are “reluctant to drill through low prices,” the Journal adds. Oil and gas production in the U.S. emits more than 6 million tons of methane per year, Stanford researchers have found, with nearly 10% of the total methane volume produced in the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin alone going straight into the atmosphere.
The offshore wind industry is preparing to take a “more aggressive approach” in response to the Trump administration’s nearly all-out halt of permits, the Financial Times reports. While the industry had initially “opted for a passive approach” to then-candidate Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail, FT notes that companies and industry groups have since increased spending — especially in light of the administration’s decision to cancel Equinor’s Empire Wind project south of Long Island. “The only way out is through,” Liz Burdock, the chief executive of the Oceanic Network, said at an offshore wind conference last week, adding: “It’s time we respond with strength.”
The Tesla Cybertruck is no longer the best-selling electric pickup truck in the United States, InsideEVs reports. Despite selling 39,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, Tesla has seen a company-wide slowdown as CEO Elon Musk’s popularity has cratered with his involvement in the Trump administration’s federal layoffs and program cancellations. In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla registered 7,126 Cybertrucks — falling behind the Ford F-150, which had 7,913 registrations, followed in turn by the Chevrolet Silverado EV in third place, then the GMC Sierra EV, and the Rivian R1T. At the same time, “celebrations aren’t exactly welcome,” InsideEVs writes, “seeing how even the best-selling EV truck in the U.S. has struggled to move over 7,000 units in three months.”
Electric and biodiesel-powered ambulances in New York City have brought the city’s alternative-powered vehicles to 21,500, or more than 75% of the entire fleet. Fire Commissioner Robert Tucker said the next goal was to “eventually rush to emergencies in electric fire trucks,” Gothamist reports.
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Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by ... another wind opponent.
Democrat Zack Mullock unseated Representative Jeff Van Drew, one of offshore wind’s biggest foes, on Tuesday night in the race for New Jersey’s second district. But while Mullock is a fan of renewable energy, he’s still a man of the south Jersey shore — and unlikely to be a champion for turbines off his coast.
District 2 encompasses the entire lower quarter of the state, covering six coastal counties from Atlantic City down to the tip of Cape May and around to the Delaware Bay. The area is a hotbed for offshore wind opposition, where groups like Protect our Coasts NJ have filed legal challenges against almost every wind project proposed in the region.
After heading to Congress in 2019, Van Drew, who was previously a Democrat, switched parties and became a key ally to this movement. He called for a moratorium on offshore wind development, held hearings on offshore wind “industrialization”, and requested that the Government Accountability Office investigate the industry. He also worked with the Trump administration to block projects that were under construction.
During a debate in late October, Mullock accused Van Drew of flip flopping on wind, arguing that the congressman was a staunch supporter of the industry during his decade-long tenure in the New Jersey legislature. Mullock, who is currently serving his second term as mayor of the city of Cape May, summed up his own position by citing a resolution he signed in 2023 calling for a moratorium on surveying and acoustic testing for offshore wind development pending an investigation into a spate of whale deaths. He signed it due to “concerns” about the environment and commercial fishing, he said.
“I believe very much in our future with renewable energy,” he said. “We need to go full steam ahead with solar panels. And yes we should do wind where it is appropriate, where it doesn't hurt our environment and it doesn't hurt our commercial fishing industry.”
Mullock’s campaign website says he supports federal investments in renewable energy and incentives for energy-efficient homes. He also wants “stricter enforcement of the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act,” and to fund coastal resiliency and other “smart infrastructure” projects that protect against climate impacts. He also campaigned in support of a data center moratorium.
Early signs point to a rough election for AI infrastructure.
We’ve seen enough: If this was the data center election, it was a really bad night for the industry.
Democratic campaigns and their affiliated Super PACs spent bigly on data center-themed attack ads. The ads came in various flavors. Some ads painted a vote for tax cuts as aiding data center developers. Others brought up candidates’ previous support for data centers or stock the candidate may have held in the tech industry or AI infrastructure developers. As Election Day approached, the data center industry sought to bat back claims that their sector’s poor reputation with the electorate would sway the results. People may have soured on their industry, they argued, but people weren’t going to vote based on that position.
Results are still coming in, but so far congressional races heavily featuring these data center attacks are heavily going in Democrats’ favor. In addition, these races have so profoundly shifted that it’ll be challenging for the industry to argue they played no role in the outcome.
Some of the most illustrative examples are obvious. In Georgia, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms campaigned on a statewide data center moratorium and won control of the governor’s mansion, becoming the first black woman to ever lead a U.S. state. Similar results in Ohio where Amy Acton flipped party control of the governor’s seat with a campaign that included going hard against data centers. In Pennsylvania, two Democrats who focused on data centers in their races have flipped Republican districts: Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti and firefighter Bob Brooks. In New Jersey, Cape May mayor Zack Mullock rode data center attacks to defeat Rep. Jeff Van Drew, the biggest opponent of the offshore wind industry. In Virginia, Democrat Shannon Taylor rode data center-laden attacks to take control of the Richmond area congressional seat from Rep. Rob Wittman.
If you’re arguing this election was decided by data centers, your best proof point: Democrat Gina Hinojosa has taken control of the governor's mansion in Texas, defeating incumbent Greg Abbott, who’d sought recently to take a hard line against the industry. Hinojosa ran on going further, calling to pass a law completely pausing data center development across one of the industry’s favorite states. She won a decisive victory. So did Democratic Texas Agriculture Commissioner candidate Clayton Tucker, who I explained months ago became one of anti-data center Facebook’s favorite online personalities.
But it makes sense that data centers would matter a lot in Texas, which could be compared to Virginia in terms of their buildout. When you inspect the election results more closely, they tell a more complicated story about the upper boundaries of these data center attacks.
For decades, Greenville and Spartanburg County have been GOP vote strongholds and reliable for both Republican congressional candidates and statewide campaigns. The congressional district gave Donald Trump at least a 20-point cushion in the 2024 presidential election, according to Decision Desk HQ. Last week, I explained for subscribers to The Fight how Courtney McClain, a novice candidate living one mile from a controversial data center proposal, was running against incumbent Rep. William Timmons. I couldn’t find much in the way of online ad spending on either side in this race and it’s never been on the radar of most political observers as a campaign that could somehow flip party control. But the data center debate in Spartanburg County has been immense.
Tonight, Timmons kept his ordinarily ruby red district by slim single digits after running even for most of the night. But this swing was essentially the same as the national margin. And because Timmons didn’t lose, this actually feels like a crucial distinction – data centers were not deciding races themselves in all cases. Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Republican Darlene Graham in a result driven by Democratic overperformance and GOP underperformance in this area, but it’s challenging to tie this result to the data center issue at all. Anything from the economy and the Iran War to Graham’s deceased brother and his baggage could be blamed for this result from this heavily evangelical region.
However, it will be challenging for the data center sector to differentiate themselves from this outcome, especially since a pro-data center Super PAC – Building the Future – publicly waded into the race in support of Graham only to lose. “Darlene Graham’s loss is a black eye for the data center industry,” wrote Teddy Schleifer of The New York Times on election night.
The same story played out in Georgia’s 1st district, which includes the city of Savannah. OpenAI is developing a controversial data center project in Effingham County, northwest of Savannah and the congressional race – which like South Carolina’s 4th had comparatively little spending – has been chock full of data center mudslinging, with the Democrat Amanda Hollowell calling for broader moratoria on development.
Effingham County went for Trump by almost 50 points in 2024. As of this story’s publication, the Republican, Jim Kingston, is winning by a single percentage point with 93% of the vote in. Most of what’s left is in Effington. Should this candidate win, it’s safe to say it’s because voters in this county looked past data centers, or did not link their vote for a national candidate to the local development.
On Election Night, Effingham County formally tabled any decision on the OpenAI data center. So at least on the ground level, people are paying close attention to these results.
After taking two seats in a special election last year, the party gained a third in the midterms.
Democrats claimed two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission in a special election last year, ending almost 20 years of unanimous Republican control over the regulator.
One of those winning Democrats, Peter Hubbard, ran again this year for a full six-year term in a rematch against Republican Fitz Johnson. The other open seat this year saw Sheila Edwards running in an open race against Republican Josh Tolbert.
Both Hubbard and Edwads won, securing a 3–2 Democratic majority on the Public Service Commission.
“Over the last 12 months, Georgian consumers have made one thing clear: They are tired of rising utility bills and they are hungry to see change. Georgia’s sea change moment for energy policy has arrived,” Charles Hua, the executive director of the utility-focused advocacy group PowerLines, told me.
The Democrats have not been shy about what their priorities will be on the commission.
“Winning control of the Georgia Public Service Commission means prioritizing lowering power bills instead of constantly increasing corporate profits, ramping up the deployment of clean energy technologies, and focusing the people in our decision-making as state regulators,” Hubbard said in a statement on his website.
Edwards, for her part, made it clear where she stands on data centers specifically in an October debate with Tolbert. “They came into our communities,” Edwards said. “They didn’t pay any taxes. They are using our water, using our electricity, and they’re being a public nuisance to the communities that they’re coming into.”
Hubbard also talked about data centers on Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast back in June. “I advocate for a whole-of-government approach, because while the Public Service Commission really only has oversight over the power side of things — where that power comes from and how much data centers are paying on their tariff — there’s much larger issues in terms of water use, in terms of the tax incentives,” he told my colleague Robinson Meyer. “The estimate is $3.5 billion in tax abatements this year in Georgia, uncollected revenue that data centers otherwise would be willing to pay.”
The race has seen outsize spending and interest from major figures not accustomed to dealing in utility regulator races. (Just 10 states have elected utility commissions, period.) Kamala Harris appeared at a virtual fundraiser for the Democratic candidates in Georgia, as well as Democratic hopefuls to the Arizona Corporation Commission. The solar energy industry spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of the Democrats in Georgia. Meanwhile, anonymous donors pumped millions of dollars into Tolbert’s bid.
Democrats swept into the Georgia PSC last year on a wave of dissatisfaction with rising electricity prices, especially rate hikes attached to the construction of two new nuclear reactors at the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, which ran years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. In the runup to the election, the PSC approved a three-year base rate freeze proposed by Georgia Power in an attempt to head off public dissatisfaction.
In the past year, rates in Georgia have gone up by less than 1% across the state on average, according to the Heatmap-MIT Electricity Price Hub, while rates are up over 18% in the last three years and over 6% in the past two years.
Shares in Southern Company, the parent company of Georgia Power, were down slightly more than 0.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday night.