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On budget negotiations, Climeworks, and a decline in shale

Current conditions: The chance of tornadoes continues through Tuesday in the Great Plains, Midwest, and South after weekend storms in the central U.S. killed at least 27 • The uncontained 18,000-acre Greer Fire in eastern Arizona is now encroaching on the towns of Greer, South Fork, and Eagar • No tropical cyclones have formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere yet this year. The average by May 19 is 3.5.
Late Sunday evening, lawmakers on the House Budget Committee reconvened to advance the reconciliation bill in a rare weekend vote. The package had initially failed to progress in a vote on Friday after Republican hardliners, including members of the House Freedom Caucus, expressed concerns that it did not go far enough to reduce the nation’s budget deficit. Though the package is still under negotiation — the four holdouts from Friday voted “present” to express their continued dissatisfaction — Politico reports that “Republican leaders put their commitments to the GOP holdouts in writing.” Per Punchbowl, that included House Speaker Mike Johnson proposing “a quicker phase-out of clean energy tax credits that were put into law as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Republican leaders tentatively agreed to cut off all credits by 2028.”
We’ve been closely following what such cuts — such as erasing the electric vehicle tax credit and others for energy efficiency, heat pumps, and rooftop solar, as well as deep cuts to clean energy programs — would do to the IRA. As things stand, Johnson has “a bruising negotiation ahead” as conservatives and moderate Republicans, especially those from states that have been significant beneficiaries of the economic and job-creating upsides of the IRA, remain at odds. The House Rules Committee will hold its hearing on the package on Wednesday morning at 1 a.m. — not a typo — with Republican leadership “warning us that they won’t send members home for the Memorial Day recess until the House passes the reconciliation bill,” Punchbowl writes.

The Swiss carbon removal company Climeworks allegedly fails to capture enough carbon even to offset its own emissions, an investigation by the Icelandic newspaper Heimildin found. According to the report, since Climeworks began operations in Iceland, “it has captured a maximum of 1,000 tons of CO2 in one year” — not enough to offset its emissions of 1,700 tons of CO2 in 2023. Climeworks operates two plants in Iceland: Orca and the recently opened Mammoth, which together have captured 2,400 tons of CO2, per the report. The goal is for Mammoth to capture more than 36,000 tons per year by the time it is fully installed later in 2025.
Last week, we covered in AM that Climeworks is preparing for significant cuts to its workforce. While the company confirmed those reports, its founder, Jan Wurzbacher, pushed back on Heimildin’s investigation on LinkedIn, writing that Orca and Mammoth have together captured 1,058 tons of net CO2, explaining that “the difference between theoretical and actual output is due to various factors such as planned and unplanned down-times, weather, filtering losses” and additionally, that Mammoth is “still under ramp-up.” In a fact-check on Twitter, Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, formerly of Breakthrough Energy, added that “operational challenges are to be expected with scale up of any technology, let alone one as nascent and challenging as DAC,” but that Heimildin’s report also “clearly shows the challenges of scaling a necessary climate technology that doesn’t have a market.”
Despite his calls to “drill, baby, drill,” President Trump “is set to preside over a decline in shale production,” with U.S. oil executives warning that the industry is at a “tipping point,” The Wall Street Journal reports. Though crude oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, S&P Global Commodities Insights expects production to dip by 13.33 million barrels a day next year, or about 1%.
Trump’s tariffs and OPEC’s recent decision to accelerate oil production are expected to add to the decline in U.S. oil. Production in the Permian Basin was already slowing, and with oil prices around $62.49 a barrel — well below the $85 benchmark one driller said would “encourage new drilling” — many companies are “reluctant to drill through low prices,” the Journal adds. Oil and gas production in the U.S. emits more than 6 million tons of methane per year, Stanford researchers have found, with nearly 10% of the total methane volume produced in the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin alone going straight into the atmosphere.
The offshore wind industry is preparing to take a “more aggressive approach” in response to the Trump administration’s nearly all-out halt of permits, the Financial Times reports. While the industry had initially “opted for a passive approach” to then-candidate Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail, FT notes that companies and industry groups have since increased spending — especially in light of the administration’s decision to cancel Equinor’s Empire Wind project south of Long Island. “The only way out is through,” Liz Burdock, the chief executive of the Oceanic Network, said at an offshore wind conference last week, adding: “It’s time we respond with strength.”
The Tesla Cybertruck is no longer the best-selling electric pickup truck in the United States, InsideEVs reports. Despite selling 39,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, Tesla has seen a company-wide slowdown as CEO Elon Musk’s popularity has cratered with his involvement in the Trump administration’s federal layoffs and program cancellations. In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla registered 7,126 Cybertrucks — falling behind the Ford F-150, which had 7,913 registrations, followed in turn by the Chevrolet Silverado EV in third place, then the GMC Sierra EV, and the Rivian R1T. At the same time, “celebrations aren’t exactly welcome,” InsideEVs writes, “seeing how even the best-selling EV truck in the U.S. has struggled to move over 7,000 units in three months.”
Electric and biodiesel-powered ambulances in New York City have brought the city’s alternative-powered vehicles to 21,500, or more than 75% of the entire fleet. Fire Commissioner Robert Tucker said the next goal was to “eventually rush to emergencies in electric fire trucks,” Gothamist reports.
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And data centers might be collateral damage.
After derailing gigawatts of renewable power with a permitting freeze, the Trump administration is expanding its war on renewable energy, retaining one of country music’s biggest stars in a PR offensive against utility-scale projects on “prime farmland.”
The administration recently onboarded John Rich – one half of the stadium-packing American musical duo Big & Rich – to be Trump’s “special envoy for American landowners.” Rich entered activism around landowner rights last January when he backed opponents fighting a large Tennessee Valley Authority transmission project routed through his home county of Cheatham, Tennessee. This led to him joining the Trump team, where he’s fashioning himself as a go-to guy and cheerleader for anyone who wants Trump to help stop a solar or wind farm they don’t want built.
Rich’s first fight on behalf of the Trump team? Battling solar projects in upstate New York. Over the weekend, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and the freshly-annointed Rich wrote New York Governor Kathy Hochul grilling her on the state’s definition of “prime farmland” and claiming “the absence of a clear plan” for disposing of solar panels after projects are decommissioned. The letter resulted from Rich’s conversations with a prominent anti-solar Substack author in upstate New York, Alexandra Fasulo, and it references a specific Repsol project under development in Glen, New York, that she is fighting in state court.
“Only 8 weeks ago, I decided to start posting my written content from Facebook and Substack to X. It didn’t take long before John Rich and I connected,” Fasulo wrote in a blog on Monday. “John and I spoke on the phone a few times. We texted and I began to share my research with him. Many meetings later… and the US Department of Agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and John Rich put their heads together.” In her post Fasulo signaled more is coming. “If you read the letter slowly, you’ll get the gist of what the feds are trying to do here. For legal purposes, I am not going to explain that in writing. Read between the lines,” she said. “This lays the foundation for battling destruction at the hands of solar and wind complexes, battery storage, and so much more. Have a little faith and patience. There is A LOT to come.”
Trump is pivoting to farmland fights because there are few battlegrounds left for the federal government to fire upon. He has totally undermined large-scale renewable energy development in the ocean – I mean, look at offshore wind. He’s wrecked progress in the desert, where large solar farms on federal lands remain trapped in bureaucratic permitting delays. Some facilities are now getting through, like Primergy Power’s Purple Sage Energy Center south of Pahrump, Nevada, which got its permits last month. Yet other large projects are petering out; permitting on at least three large solar proposals – Smith Blythe’s Desert Energy Charger Project and Intersect Power’s Perkins Renewable Energy Project in California and Balanced Rock Power’s Samantha Solar effort in Nevada – has been paused or canceled outright since the start of the year.
The president’s turn to fighting projects on farmland also makes sense from a political standpoint. He’s facing an enormous backlash to a buildout of hyperscale data centers he supported, many of which are sited on acreage suitable for agriculture. Republicans running statewide in must-watch midterms battlegrounds – Texas and Iowa, for example – will have to navigate this rocky terrain where something their president supported is deeply unpopular. By bringing Rich aboard and letting him wail on renewable energy in the public square, it’ll be a signal that the Big Man is still listening to rural MAGA voters wary of industrial development.
In media interviews, Rich has claimed Trump created this new, unpaid special envoy position after the country star turned down an offer to sit on the TVA. “I said [to Trump], ‘if I serve with the TVA I cannot disparage the TVA, and I fully intend on keeping my right to disparage them intact.’” He said, ‘You know what, I respect that. So what do you want to do?’ And I said, ‘Man, give me a position where I’ve got some authority and I can work with the highest agencies in the land to protect landowners. Can you create something like that for me?’”
That’s at least the public story for how the president created the “special envoy” role, which Rich has described in ways that are equal parts citizen-government liaison and culture warrior. It’s now clear from his many posts on X that he’ll be heavily involved in messaging against the construction of new renewable energy facilities, carbon pipelines and, potentially, hyperscale data centers.
“[I’ll] go out, find these egregious situations where landowners are being infringed upon and I can go in, work with USDA, EPA, Secretary of the Interior, HUD, the Energy Department, and then all the way of course [to] the Oval Office – to throw up a defense against American landowners,” Rich told Atkisson. He added that data centers will also be a focus of his in government, and there are “two or three” projects out there where he wanted to intervene.
“The president wants to see the data centers built, but he also wants the farm and ranchland to be preserved. We have to have food security for America. We have to.”
Rich and Fasulo then joined Rollins and other administration officials at a press conference Thursday in Washington, D.C. Fasulo spoke at length against New York solar and wind development. Pressed on how data centers square with farmland protection, Rollins spoke about the anxiety in rural America around hyperscalers.
“That debate is raging right now,” she said. “I think that the importance of private property rights, the importance of preserving American farmland, the importance of ensuring we’re going to have another 250 years of freedom is paramount. Does that mean it is completely incompatible with data centers? I don’t think so and I know President Trump doesn’t think so. But what it does mean is that we have to be extremely intentional. There should be plenty of land in this country where data centers can be built that will not be on prime, important farmland. That’s my take on that.”
When Rich joined the federal government is unclear. The Agriculture Department formally announced Rich joined the administration on June 10, but Rich first disclosed Trump “made an offer for a position” in a subscriber-only post made to X on July 24, 2025. He then provided updates in similarly paywalled statements, revealing the Trump appointment to his subscribers in April. Then in May, he told subscribers that he’d completed federal onboarding. “I’m really looking forward to pushing bad guys off of good guys’ land:) You’ll be seeing the official announcement soon, but I wanted you to know 1st!”
What’s clear, however, is that Rich has other targets too. As Rich was brought into federal service, he began routinely sharing a URL – “usda.gov/lawfare” – and directed aggrieved landowners to report potential misdeeds around land seizure. A review of his back-and-forth communications on social media indicate several potential fights he may wade into. Wind energy projects in Kansas. Solar development in rural Virginia. An aluminum smelter in Oklahoma. Carbon capture proposals in Louisiana.
Prior to formally joining the administration, Rich got involved in a conflict over eminent domain and transmission for data centers in Coweta County, Georgia, which had gone viral on right-wing social media. On May 12, Rich said he “just had a great phone call” with Rep. Brian Jack, the GOP congressman who represents the transmission battleground in question. “I will be speaking more on the matter soon,” he tweeted, declaring the power lines threatened “not only homes, but cattle farms and row crops.” Rich also says he facilitated federal engagement between the USDA and Casey Murph, a rancher in Navajo County, Arizona, who claims the state prematurely ended a land lease he held so Orsted can build a solar project.
It’s also apparent Rich will be the first major Trump administration official to publicly root for more counties to indefinitely ban solar and wind development. “The best way for farm and ranch land to be protected from wind/solar projects is for the county to pass a moratorium on those energy sources, disallowing them to ever be built in the county,” Rich told an X follower on May 16.
No one can predict how harmful it’ll be to have one of country music’s most famous artists turning into a spokesperson against renewable energy. But I doubt even paying Katie Miller to say nice things about solar will be able to overcome newly-empowered activism from a Nashville legend.
And more of the week’s top news around project fights.
1. Kansas City, Missouri – Data centers are so toxic that politicians are using them as boogeymen in totally unrelated policy discussions.
2. Ingham County, Michigan – We have our first major anti-data center candidate in a Democratic congressional primary.
3. Nueces County, Texas - The Longhorn State is on a bull run towards data center hostility.
4. Pulaski County, Arkansas - We have yet another municipal employee losing their job over helping a data center.
5. Marathon County, Wisconsin - Yet again rural residents are poised to lose against state permitting primacy laws benefiting renewable energy.
This week’s conversation is with Grant Gutierrez, head of community impacts at carbon management company Carbon Direct. This week Carbon Direct published a white paper Gutierrez authored on opposition around data centers he’s studied. His research reinforces much of what Heatmap Pro has uncovered, but I was particularly intrigued by a topline finding – that transparency is the most common thread in the 46 data center fights he looked into. Was he seeing what I’ve been seeing? So I asked him to hop onto a Zoom call and let me know his thoughts.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
If you were to explain the findings in your white paper to someone at a bar… how would you put it?
What I would say is that we were really interested in the kinds of concerns communities were articulating as they were opposing or resisting data center development in the U.S. To answer and explore those questions, we developed our own data center cancellation tracker where we looked for cases where we could find a strong correlation between cancelation or withdrawal status and opposition. Then we did high-level analyses of the demographics surrounding those data centers, using standard best practices from environmental justice methodologies and pulling sociodemographic and environmental burden characters from EPA’s EJScreen tool. We were mostly looking at public records. Press materials. City council meeting minutes. Things you wouldn’t have to dig too hard to find.
The kinds of communities we saw successfully resisting data centers tracked across the demographic middle of the United States – slightly more middle income, slightly more white than a majority of the American community, but mostly what you’d consider the average American community.
What is the intended audience of this paper and what are you hoping to communicate?
I think it’s important for data center developers and the capital behind them is that they need to move their engagement to early stage, responsible design. A second audience is regulators, city councils, and local zoning commissions about how to engage with developers and advocate for the right disclosure requirements from industry.
The key topline message is that developers who treat community engagement as a permitting formality instead of a critical early stage input are burdening communities, breaking trust. This is resulting in reputational risk for developers, stranded assets, losing capital – and the loss of future opportunities as developers want to build 21st century infrastructure.
Walk me through what you saw evaluating these projects. What’s the development pattern that leads to such opposition?
We saw five key themes. Some of them you might expect – concerns around natural resources, water impacts, electricity rates, land. The rural character came up quite consistently. And then there was a lack of transparency through the use of NDAs.
The NDA example I was surprised to see was the most consistent in all of our case studies. Communities are largely concerned with the process that unfolds as much as the impacts. That’s a very important signal that transcends political lines. Communities want to be heard, involved in the process. They want large infrastructural development with impacts to listen to their concerns. When those decisions are made behind NDAs or with no transparency or equitable engagement, communities quickly mobilize and organize at a hyperlocal level and are successful in opposing these data centers.
I know there are a number of companies out there – without naming names – that are putting responsible development principles forward. The ones we advocate for across our business, whether we’re working in carbon removal or other things. I see companies leading and saying, if we’re involved in this infrastructure, we are not going to sign an NDA. Those who are pushing forward renewable energy commitments, community benefit agreements, and local public-private partnerships are leading with transparency and equity in their engagements.
How any of this carries in the broader industry is yet to be seen.
In your report you point to various ways opposition can crop up to a project. One of those ways was due to the presence of co-located gas – you note that gas power at a data center engendered environmental opponents, which then strengthened those fighting a data center. Can you elaborate on whether you think a new gas power presence is making it harder to get a data center built?
The case you’re pointing to, that’s the Ballico case where on top of the data center there was a 3,500 megawatt co-located gas plant. That quickly led to major community concerns and a partnership with the Southern Environmental Law Center, which became the legal anchor for thinking through the opposition here and commissioned the technical evidence, and provided the legal [support] there.
You see a broad coalition coalesce around not only the data center concern but the climate concerns that arise. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a repeated concern around the expansion of fossil energy and combustion sources going hand in hand with community opposition and organizing on data centers. But that remains to be seen.
What in your research have you seen when you compare opposition to data centers and campaigns against, let’s say, fossil fuels? Or mining? Or renewables?
What I think about with data centers is they’re the highways of the 21st century. As we know through the highway projects in the U.S., there were major disproportionate impacts on communities of color. I think there’s potential for data centers if they follow that playbook to have that same impact.
When it comes to comparing these, that’s something I have not done yet. But I think there’s a few things happening. I think the scale and scope of the buildout is taking the American public by surprise. Articulation around impacts to natural resources and electricity prices in a heightened political climate and a difficult economy. It’s also the existential problem AI introduces, which is the role AI plays in society. This is unique compared to other kinds of extraction, which feed technologies already at play.
How do you feel about the fact that so many of us in energy, environment and climate are now talking about data centers all the time?
Never in my career, working in carbon removal and nature based solutions, I never thought data centers would be a major focus in my career as an environmental justice advocate and social scientist.
Data centers are probably emerging to be one of the biggest environmental justice problems of our time so while it’s not something I planned to work on, I am emboldened to see the response from the nonprofit community and others trying to wrap their heads around this. What is the right kind of information? What does the public need to know? How do we advocate for our communities and build the world we would like to build?
While data centers are moving fast, I’m encouraged to see communities organizing and advocating for their own needs as well. Over the next few years, the story will tell itself.
Last question – what was the last song you listened to?
DtMF by Bad Bunny.