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Here’s a grim fact: The most destructive fires in recent American history swept over a state with the country’s strictest wildfire-specific building code, including in some of the neighborhoods that are now largely smoldering rubble.
California’s wildfire building code, Chapter 7A, went into effect in 2008, and it mandates fire-resistant siding, tempered glass, vegetation management, and vents for attics and crawlspaces designed to resist embers and flames. The code is the “most robust” in the nation, Lisa Dale, a lecturer at the Columbia Climate School and a former environmental policy advisor for the State of Colorado, told me. It applies to nearly any newly built structure in one of the zones mapped out by state and local officials as especially prone to fire hazard.
The adoption of 7A followed years of code development and mapping of hazardous areas, largely in response to devastating urban wildfires such as the Tunnel Fire, which claimed more than 3,000 structures and 25 lives in Oakland and Berkeley in 1991, and kicked off renewed efforts to harden Californian homes.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s report on the 1991 fire makes for familiar reading as the Palisades and Eaton fires still smolder. The wildland-urban interface, it says, was put at extreme risk by a combination of dry air, little rainfall, hot winds blowing east to west, built-up vegetation that was too close to homes, steep hills, and limited access to municipal water. The report also castigates the “unregulated use of wood shingles as roof and siding material.”
This was not the first time a destructive fire on the wildland-urban interface had been partially attributed to ignitable building materials. The 1961 Bel-Air fire, for instance, which claimed almost 200 homes, including that of Burt Lancaster, and the 1959 Laurel Canyon fire were both, FEMA said, evidence of “the wood roof and separation from natural fuels problems,” as were fires in 1970 and 1980 near where the Tunnel Fire eventually struck in 1970 and 1980.
But it was the sheer scale of the Tunnel Fire that prompted action by California lawmakers.
Throughout the 1990s, fire-resilient roofing requirements were ramped up, designating which materials were allowed in fire hazard areas and throughout the state. By all accounts, the building code works — but only when and where it’s in force. Dale told me that compliant homes were five times as likely to survive a wildfire. Research by economists Judson Boomhower and Patrick Baylis found that the code “reduced average structure loss risk during a wildfire by 16 percentage points, or about a 40% reduction.”
“The challenge from the perspective of wildfire vulnerability is that those codes are relatively recent, and the housing stock turns over really slowly, so we have this enormous stock of already built homes in dangerous places that are going to be out there for decades,” Boomhower told me.
The 7A building code applies only to new buildings, however. In long-settled areas of California like Pacific Palisades, which has little new housing construction or even existing home turnover due to high costs and permitting complications, especially in areas under the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission, many houses are not just failing to comply with Chapter 7A, but also with any housing code at all.
Looking at which homes had survived past fires, Steve Quarles, who helped advise the California State Fire Marshal on developing 7A, told me, “What really mattered was if it was built under any building code.” Many homes destroyed by the fires in Los Angeles likely were not. In Pacific Palisades, fire management is a frequent topic of concern and discussion. But as late as 2018, local media in Pacific Palisades noted that the area still had some homes with wood shingle roofs.
While a complete inventory of homes lost in the Palisades and Eaton fires has yet to be taken, the neighborhoods were full of older homes. According to CalFire incident reports, of the almost 47,000 structures in the zone of the Palisades Fire, more than 8,000 were built before 1939, and 44,560 were built before 2009. For the Eaton Fire area, of the around 41,000 structures, almost 14,000 were built before 1939, and only around 1,000 were built since 2010.
A Pacific Palisades home designed by architect Greg Chasen and built in 2024, however, survived the fire and went viral on X after he posted a photo of it still standing after the flames had moved through. The home embodied some of the best practices for fire-safe building, according to Bloomberg, including keeping vegetation away from the building, a metal roof, tempered glass, and fire-resistant siding.
When Michael Wara, the director of Stanford University’s Climate and Energy Policy Program, spoke with firefighters and insurance industry officials in the process of drafting a 2021 report for the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment on strategies for mitigating wildfire risk, they told him that, from their perspective, wildfires are often a matter of “home ignition,” meaning that while building near forested areas puts any home at risk, the risk of a home itself igniting varies based on how it’s built and the vegetation clearance around it. “Existing homes in high fire threat areas” built before the implementation of California’s wildfire building codes, Wara wrote, “are a massive problem.” At the time he published the paper, there were somewhere between 700,000 and 1.3 million pre-building code homes still standing in “high or very high threat areas.”
The flipside of focusing on “home ignition” and the building code is that the building code works better over time, as more and more homes comply with it thanks to normal turnover, people extensively renovating, or even tearing down old homes — or rebuilding after fires. Homes that are close to homes that don’t ignite in a fire are more likely to survive.
One study that looked at the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed more than 18,000 structures and claimed more than 80 lives in the Northern California town of Paradise, sampled homes built before 1997, between 1997 and 2018, and from 2018 onwards, and found that only 11.5% of pre-1997 homes survived, compared to 38.5% from 1997 and after. The researchers also found that building survivability had a kind of magnifying effect, with distance from the nearest destroyed structure and the number structures destroyed in the immediate area among “the strongest predictors of survival.”
“The more homes that comply, the less chance you get those structural ignitions and the less chance you get those huge disasters like this,” Doug Green, who manages Headwaters Economics’ Community Assistance for Wildfire Program, told me. “It takes people doing the right thing to their own home — dealing with vegetation, making sure roofs are clean, having right roofing. It’s really a community-wide strategy to stop fires that happen like this.”
But just as any home hardening — or just building to code — is more effective the more the homes around you do it as well, it’s just as true in reverse. “If your next door neighbors don’t do that work, the effectiveness of your efforts will be less,” Dale said. “Building codes ultimately work best when we get an entire landscape or neighborhood to adopt them.”
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The enhanced geothermal company just announced a new 19,448-foot well.
Enhanced geothermal company Fervo has drilled another well.
This one is 19,448 feet deep, the company announced Thursday, and includes a 7,500-foot span laterally across the sub-surface. The well — called Sawtooth 7, part of Phase II of its flagship Cape Station project in Milford, Utah — took 21 days to drill, the company said. That matches the time required to drill the wells in Phase I, though the new one is nearly 35% deeper than those, on average, with a 50% greater lateral extension.
The greater depth and distance means greater energy potential from the well, while faster drilling times mean much lower costs. Tim Latimer, Fervo’s co-founder and chief executive, compared the timeline to that of the company’s 2022 Project Red well in Nevada, which achieved a depth of 11,220 feet in 70 days.
“Today, we are drilling deeper, hotter wells that will produce multiples more [megawatts] per well than our Project Red pilot, and we are doing it in a fraction of the time,” Latimer wrote.
Fervo says that its drilling rates at the Cape Station site have improved by 143% since it broke ground there in 2023.
The company says it’s now on track to get project costs down to $5,500 per kilowatt, working toward a goal of $3,000 per kilowatt over the long term. In its IPO filing, Fervo said costs at Cape Station were around $7,000 per kilowatt, indicating significant improvements in drilling efficiency in a relatively short period of time.
The news should be welcome to Fervo and its investors. Shortly after going public in May, the company announced that one of its Utah wells blew out. The company said at the time that there were no injuries, nor was there any environmental damage or “material impact to either cost or schedule of the project” at Cape Station.
Fervo raised almost $2 billion in its IPO, which it said will go to fund further progress on the flagship installation. Shares were trading at around $26 on Thursday afternoon, just shy of their $27 IPO price and up over 13% on the day.
The Earth Fire Alliance is aiming for a constellation of high-resolution sensors that can capture the whole globe every 20 minutes.
Wildfires burn tens of millions of acres worldwide every year, and they’re only becoming more destructive.
For the past few decades, satellites operated by the likes of NASA and NOAA have assisted fire crews in detecting and tracking wildfires in even the most remote, difficult-to-monitor landscapes. But helpful as they are, these systems can’t provide real-time, actionable insights. They typically can’t spot fires until they’ve grown to several acres, for instance. They also only provide an image of the same spot every 12 hours at best, and by the time the data reaches the ground, hours — sometimes days — may have passed.
But the nonprofit Earth Fire Alliance says it’s built a far more capable alternative. In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, it launched three minifridge-sized satellites into orbit, the first components of a purpose-built wildfire detection constellation of more than 50 satellites planned to be fully operational by the 2030s. Designed to detect much smaller blazes than existing systems, the network will give first responders earlier warning and more time to contain fires before they spread. FireSat will also provide the broader scientific community with new data on how and why smaller burns grow into destructive wildfires, helping to improve models of fire behavior amidst a changing climate.
“We’ll be able to see fires as small as five by five meters — that’s the size of a shipping container — and be able to see fires at a lower temperature than a lot of the other satellite systems do,” Karen O’Conner, a founding principal at Earth Fire Alliance, told me. Once the full constellation is in orbit, the goal is to use the satellite’s thermal imaging capabilities to provide updates on fires every 20 minutes. “When you think about how that compares with current systems, they might see two to three acres. They might be over the same region maybe once or twice a day,” O’Conner explained.
The initiative has raised $69 million from a coalition of philanthropic backers, including a $26 million grant from the Bezos Earth Fund, over $15 million from Google.org, and support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, as well as other donors. The alliance’s technical partner, Silicon Valley startup Muon Space, designed and built the satellites. The company validated its tech last March when it launched a prototype satellite into orbit that detected a small fire in Oregon that existing systems missed.
O’Connor told me the team has interviewed hundreds of firefighters, fire agency officials, and fire scientists since the project kicked off six years ago, so that they could design the system to meet their needs. Those features include ultra-high-resolution sensors and an unusually wide field of view — over 930 miles across. Each satellite can quickly scan vast swaths of land, imaging the entire globe in about 12 hours. With more satellites will come greater imaging frequency: The alliance aims to capture an image of any point on Earth at least once an hour by 2029, reaching every 20 minutes by the early 2030s.
Hourly imaging “gets us within operational decision making timeframes,” O’Connor told me. Many fire agencies already receive intelligence updates from weather monitoring stations on this cadence, meaning at this point FireSat data can fit directly into their existing workflows to inform decisions about if, where, and when to deploy crews.
FireSat also provides a much clearer, more detailed view of active fires than standard Earth observation satellites, whose imagery generally lacks the resolution needed to manage fires in real time. Its specialized sensor captures six distinct bands of light — one visible, one near infrared, and four thermal infrared bands — each revealing different characteristics of the fire and its progression.
Visible light provides a baseline view of the landscape, while near infrared wavelengths reveal how vegetation responds to a fire — a stronger near-infrared signal indicates healthy vegetation. Short-wave infrared allows satellites to see through smoke during active fires and identify the areas burning with the most intensity. Mid-wave infrared is FireSat’s most unique and valuable channel for fire detection. Unlike most systems which use a single mid-wave band, FireSat uses two. One is attenuated — essentially tuned down — to allow the sensor to measure extremely hot fires without its gradations becoming saturated. The other is not, allowing the satellite to pick up smaller, lower-intensity blazes.
Long-wave infrared helps detect cooler parts of a fire as well as the temperature of the surrounding landscape, including smoldering areas, burn scars, and changes in ground temperature. This helps researchers better distinguish fire signatures and understand their impacts on smoke and air quality.
The three newly launched satellites will now undergo about three months of testing and calibration before they begin feeding data directly to FireSat’s early adopters, which include Cal Fire in California as well as fire agencies in Colorado, Oregon, Texas, Africa, Australia and Portugal.
“We’ve started with the operational community because we think that they’re the ones that need to be using the data from the beginning,” O’Connor told me. But as FireSat’s data set grows and researchers build a more exact historical record of recent fires, the patterns that emerge should provide valuable scientific insights such as seasonal shifts in fire behavior, how fires spread across different environments, and their impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, and emissions.
Fire modeling is already evolving quickly these days, as startups and research labs increasingly integrate AI into their wildfire simulation models and risk assessments. Examples include companies like Pano AI and Technosylva, as well as researchers at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and the University of Buffalo. O’Connor told me she thinks FireSat’s data will help further improve these models. “By having a real-time, regularly updated fire path, they can actually go back in and train those tools again — like this is how the fire actually behaved — so that in the future those types of tools will be better for the operational decision makers.”
FireSat could also help reveal the true global scale of fire activity. Until recently, existing systems couldn’t reliably detect smaller conflagrations, so the historical record has mostly captured only the largest ones. A more complete picture of fire activity will improve carbon emissions accounting and inform better land management practices.
That said, it remains true that not every fire ought to be put out. Fire is a natural — and often essential — ecological cycle that helps landscapes like grasslands, chaparral, and forests stay healthy while clearing dead vegetation that would otherwise accumulate as fuel for more destructive wildfires. O’Connor expects FireSat to play a role here, as well, giving agencies a better way to monitor prescribed burns and naturally occurring fires alike to ensure they deliver their ecological benefits without getting out of hand.
Even so, there are limits to what better detection and more sophisticated modeling can achieve when it comes to reducing the toll of wildfires. As the deadly Los Angeles fires at the beginning of 2025 demonstrated, even blazes caught in their earliest stages can explode under a dangerous combination of high winds and drought — conditions that are becoming increasingly common with climate change. Furthermore, as people continue to build homes and infrastructure along the wildland-urban interface, there are limits to how much technology can protect developments in landscapes that are naturally adapted to burn.
Still, FireSat’s data stands to make a meaningful difference in our ability to respond to an increasingly fire-prone world, though those benefits won’t arrive overnight, of course. These first three satellites will offer an early glimpse of what FireSat can deliver at scale, with the real value of the constellation beginning to emerge by the end of the decade. “Four of the five biggest wildfire years were in the 2020s,” O’Connor told me. “We can’t afford to go any slower than that.”
On Trump’s mineral paradox, China’s Great Green Wall, and sodium-ion batteries
Current conditions: After devastating the U.S. island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Islands territory, Super Typhoon Bavi is barreling toward Taiwan with winds of up to 200 miles per hour • Rare tornadoes brought on by storms touched down in China’s Hubei province, leaving 11 dead • Temperatures in Madrid are hovering at around 100 degrees Fahrenheit all week as the Spanish capital roasts in Europe’s latest heat wave.
Exactly three weeks after President Donald Trump signed a formal memorandum to halt the bombing campaign against Iran that the United States and Israel embarked on nearly five months ago, the war is back on. After Washington accused Tehran of launching missiles at tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz this week, Trump officially declared the resumption of combat. Speaking Wednesday morning at the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump called the Iranian regime “scum,” “sick people,” and “vicious, violent people” when asked about the peace pact during a press conference. “If they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it,” Trump said. “So as far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” He spent the rest of the day posting more than a dozen videos and photos on his Truth Social account purportedly showing U.S. missile strikes in Iran. “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran,” Trump wrote in one post. “If it happens again, it will get much worse!”
The market is certainly preparing for worse. The price of Murban crude, the benchmark for oil flowing out of the United Arab Emirates, spiked nearly 7% on Wednesday. The European benchmark, Brent crude, jumped more than 5%. The American pricing yardstick, West Texas Intermediate crude, rose by just over 1%. Last month, my colleague Matthew Zeitlin cautioned that, despite a ceasefire, it would take a while for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal — and “even longer” for energy markets. Emphasis on that last part.
The world’s capacity to generate nuclear energy has increased by 2.2 gigawatts already this year as new Chinese reactors have come online at a rapid clip. By 2035, global nuclear capacity is on track to surge by 44% to 535 gigawatts, up from 372 gigawatts last year. That’s according to the latest forecast from the consultancy BloombergNEF. China, the unrivaled global leader in domestic reactor construction, is largely responsible for the projected spike. Today, the People’s Republic is the world’s No. 2 user of atomic energy behind the U.S., which has long operated the largest fleet of plants on the planet. But China is on pace to surpass the U.S. by 2030 with 102 gigawatts of nuclear capacity.
Among the more promising signs for the democratic world: The U.S. is now working with Japan and South Korea to commercialize new small modular reactor technologies. On Tuesday, at the margins of the NATO summit, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed onto a memorandum with the foreign ministers of Japan and South Korea. The document “outlines opportunities for our three countries, which have complementary advantages in the civil nuclear field, to encourage mutually beneficial cooperation among their respective nuclear industries,” the State Department said in a statement.
Right after the presidential inauguration in January 2025, Matthew wrote a sharp piece identifying what he called the “paradox of Trump’s critical minerals crusade.” At issue was the fact that the new Trump administration planned to (and ultimately did) kill off policies designed to spur demand for domestically mined and processed minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths — even as he slashed barriers to increasing the supply of those metals. U.S. production of minerals is picking up as the White House brokers a growing list of deals to give the government equity stakes in mining firms in exchange for federal support for increasing output. Sure enough, the demand just isn’t there in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Financial Times reported that companies backed by the administration, including rare earths miner MP Materials, uranium producer Energy Fuels, and the rare earths refiner Phoenix Tailings are instead selling their goods to buyers in Asia. Japanese customers were “clamoring” for rare earth metals from Phoenix Tailings, CEO Nick Myers said. The materials the firm produces are ending up “primarily in Korea and Japan.”
That isn’t stopping Trump from reviving his calls for Washington to seize Greenland and its resources from Denmark, a founding NATO ally. Speaking at the conference in the Turkish capital of Ankara, the American president repeated his claim that the U.S. invasion of the world’s largest island following Copenhagen’s collapse to Nazi blitzkrieg in April 1940 should have qualified as a permanent conquest. “We took Greenland and then, stupidly, we gave it back,” Trump told reporters. “We shouldn’t have given it back to them. We’re the ones who need it. We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States.”
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Not to be an old man about it, but I remember the Iraq War distinctly — the debates over the role of Baghdad’s oil and the calls from Congress for increased U.S. production with an eye toward energy independence. Here’s some data that will make you want to dismiss your humble millennial correspondent with an “ok boomer.” On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration issued a definitive new analysis showing that U.S. petroleum exports hit a record high in April after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing overseas buyers to find new sources of fuel. Exports increased to 13.6 million barrels per day, 15% more than the previous record set in March.
On the other end of the American energy spectrum, the nation’s largest provider of home battery and solar equipment just launched a distributed compute pilot program for artificial intelligence servers. Under the program, Sunrun will coordinate “the selling of inference capacity to enterprise compute buyers.” In other words, homeowners can earn money by hosting “compute nodes” — small servers —that then supply output to AI companies in much the same way Sunrun’s customers are paid by giving the virtual power plant operators access to solar panels and batteries. “Over nearly two decades, we have perfected our ability to operationalize, finance, and scale distributed assets,” Paul Dickson, Sunrun’s president and chief revenue officer, said in a press release. “We are now using our leadership position in distributed home energy and proven infrastructure to bring compute closer to the sources of energy and inference.”
Much like the United Nations effort to plant trees at the southern edge of the Sahara to keep the desert at bay, China is building a Great Green Wall. Since 1978, the country has planted 66 billion trees and plans another 34 billion by 2050 in a bid to slow the spread of the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts. A new study using satellite measurements of leafy areas found that the planted forests are greening much faster than wild ones. Younger trees grow faster. But even at similar ages, planted stands grew 4.6% faster, meaning they can absorb more carbon. The findings, according to Fertilizer Daily, “suggest global climate models should better distinguish forest types and age when accounting for carbon.”
Sodium-ion technology, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham explained two years ago, promises cheaper, less combustible batteries than its dominant lithium-ion cousin. But it remains niche and underdeveloped. Perhaps not for long. On Wednesday, sodium battery startup Peak Energy announced plans for a factory in Sacramento capable of producing 4 gigawatt-hours of sodium battery systems annually. “America needs energy storage that is lower cost, more affordable, more reliable and purpose-built to meet the demand coming onto the grid,” Peak Energy CEO Landon Mossburg said in a statement. “This facility is proof that America can lead not only in inventing the technology, but in building it at scale.”