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Here’s a grim fact: The most destructive fires in recent American history swept over a state with the country’s strictest wildfire-specific building code, including in some of the neighborhoods that are now largely smoldering rubble.
California’s wildfire building code, Chapter 7A, went into effect in 2008, and it mandates fire-resistant siding, tempered glass, vegetation management, and vents for attics and crawlspaces designed to resist embers and flames. The code is the “most robust” in the nation, Lisa Dale, a lecturer at the Columbia Climate School and a former environmental policy advisor for the State of Colorado, told me. It applies to nearly any newly built structure in one of the zones mapped out by state and local officials as especially prone to fire hazard.
The adoption of 7A followed years of code development and mapping of hazardous areas, largely in response to devastating urban wildfires such as the Tunnel Fire, which claimed more than 3,000 structures and 25 lives in Oakland and Berkeley in 1991, and kicked off renewed efforts to harden Californian homes.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s report on the 1991 fire makes for familiar reading as the Palisades and Eaton fires still smolder. The wildland-urban interface, it says, was put at extreme risk by a combination of dry air, little rainfall, hot winds blowing east to west, built-up vegetation that was too close to homes, steep hills, and limited access to municipal water. The report also castigates the “unregulated use of wood shingles as roof and siding material.”
This was not the first time a destructive fire on the wildland-urban interface had been partially attributed to ignitable building materials. The 1961 Bel-Air fire, for instance, which claimed almost 200 homes, including that of Burt Lancaster, and the 1959 Laurel Canyon fire were both, FEMA said, evidence of “the wood roof and separation from natural fuels problems,” as were fires in 1970 and 1980 near where the Tunnel Fire eventually struck in 1970 and 1980.
But it was the sheer scale of the Tunnel Fire that prompted action by California lawmakers.
Throughout the 1990s, fire-resilient roofing requirements were ramped up, designating which materials were allowed in fire hazard areas and throughout the state. By all accounts, the building code works — but only when and where it’s in force. Dale told me that compliant homes were five times as likely to survive a wildfire. Research by economists Judson Boomhower and Patrick Baylis found that the code “reduced average structure loss risk during a wildfire by 16 percentage points, or about a 40% reduction.”
“The challenge from the perspective of wildfire vulnerability is that those codes are relatively recent, and the housing stock turns over really slowly, so we have this enormous stock of already built homes in dangerous places that are going to be out there for decades,” Boomhower told me.
The 7A building code applies only to new buildings, however. In long-settled areas of California like Pacific Palisades, which has little new housing construction or even existing home turnover due to high costs and permitting complications, especially in areas under the jurisdiction of the California Coastal Commission, many houses are not just failing to comply with Chapter 7A, but also with any housing code at all.
Looking at which homes had survived past fires, Steve Quarles, who helped advise the California State Fire Marshal on developing 7A, told me, “What really mattered was if it was built under any building code.” Many homes destroyed by the fires in Los Angeles likely were not. In Pacific Palisades, fire management is a frequent topic of concern and discussion. But as late as 2018, local media in Pacific Palisades noted that the area still had some homes with wood shingle roofs.
While a complete inventory of homes lost in the Palisades and Eaton fires has yet to be taken, the neighborhoods were full of older homes. According to CalFire incident reports, of the almost 47,000 structures in the zone of the Palisades Fire, more than 8,000 were built before 1939, and 44,560 were built before 2009. For the Eaton Fire area, of the around 41,000 structures, almost 14,000 were built before 1939, and only around 1,000 were built since 2010.
A Pacific Palisades home designed by architect Greg Chasen and built in 2024, however, survived the fire and went viral on X after he posted a photo of it still standing after the flames had moved through. The home embodied some of the best practices for fire-safe building, according to Bloomberg, including keeping vegetation away from the building, a metal roof, tempered glass, and fire-resistant siding.
When Michael Wara, the director of Stanford University’s Climate and Energy Policy Program, spoke with firefighters and insurance industry officials in the process of drafting a 2021 report for the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment on strategies for mitigating wildfire risk, they told him that, from their perspective, wildfires are often a matter of “home ignition,” meaning that while building near forested areas puts any home at risk, the risk of a home itself igniting varies based on how it’s built and the vegetation clearance around it. “Existing homes in high fire threat areas” built before the implementation of California’s wildfire building codes, Wara wrote, “are a massive problem.” At the time he published the paper, there were somewhere between 700,000 and 1.3 million pre-building code homes still standing in “high or very high threat areas.”
The flipside of focusing on “home ignition” and the building code is that the building code works better over time, as more and more homes comply with it thanks to normal turnover, people extensively renovating, or even tearing down old homes — or rebuilding after fires. Homes that are close to homes that don’t ignite in a fire are more likely to survive.
One study that looked at the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed more than 18,000 structures and claimed more than 80 lives in the Northern California town of Paradise, sampled homes built before 1997, between 1997 and 2018, and from 2018 onwards, and found that only 11.5% of pre-1997 homes survived, compared to 38.5% from 1997 and after. The researchers also found that building survivability had a kind of magnifying effect, with distance from the nearest destroyed structure and the number structures destroyed in the immediate area among “the strongest predictors of survival.”
“The more homes that comply, the less chance you get those structural ignitions and the less chance you get those huge disasters like this,” Doug Green, who manages Headwaters Economics’ Community Assistance for Wildfire Program, told me. “It takes people doing the right thing to their own home — dealing with vegetation, making sure roofs are clean, having right roofing. It’s really a community-wide strategy to stop fires that happen like this.”
But just as any home hardening — or just building to code — is more effective the more the homes around you do it as well, it’s just as true in reverse. “If your next door neighbors don’t do that work, the effectiveness of your efforts will be less,” Dale said. “Building codes ultimately work best when we get an entire landscape or neighborhood to adopt them.”
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That almost certainly means another rate hike in December.
Just about everything is getting more expensive — and it’s doing so faster than expected.
Overall prices rose 0.4% in October from September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to the 0.3% analysts were expecting. Helping lead the way was energy, which got 0.7% more expensive overall in October, thanks largely to gasoline (a 1% hike), electricity (a 0.9% hike), and fuel oil (2%).
Because of the government shutdown, the BLS did not have full year-over-year price change data other than for gasoline, which was 37% more expensive now in October of this year compared to last year. Meanwhile, in Maine specifically, heating oil prices rose a shocking 80% from last October to this one.
Electricity prices went up from 18.5 cents per kilowatt-hour in October of last year to 19.9 cents this year, according to preliminary data from Heatmap and MIT’s Electricity Price Hub. That’s a jump of over 7.5%, though one largely due to a change in the timing of a bill credit in California. Stripping out that change, the year over year price hike was around 3.8%.
Economy-wide prices are up just over 4% compared to this time last year, according to estimates from Bloomberg. The October price jump surpassed expectations even after stripping out changes to the price of food and energy, leading investors to conclude that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in December. That would follow a hike in September — the first since 2023 — and a decision in October to leave rates unchanged.
While newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been averse to previewing his own expectations for future rate hikes, other members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been less reticent.
Speaking before the release of the inflation numbers Tuesday, Chris Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve board of governors, said that if core inflation had risen more than 0.2% from September to October, he was open to a half-point increase instead of the quarter-point many analysts expected.
Lorie Logan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, said in a speech Tuesday that interest rates were “adding to inflationary pressures,” and that rate hikes would likely be necessary.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, a common benchmark for borrowing costs throughout the economy, rose to right around 5% Tuesday.
“We remain confident that they will raise rates again” by at least a quarter point, “and unless there is significant progress in negotiations with Iran and a consequential decline in energy prices, they will position themselves to raise rates again as soon as the next meeting or in March 2027,” Jefferies analyst Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
The economic and monetary policy situation has put the renewables energy industry into something of a pickle. High electricity prices are generally a boon to anyone selling power, including wind and solar developers, while higher interest rates are a burden to anyone who has to finish a big construction project funded with borrowed money before generating any revenue, like wind and solar developers.
Higher inflation also affects developers as input costs rise for projects that can take months or years to complete. And when interest rates rise, the value of future payments from electricity sales falls.
That’s what happened to the Danish wind developer Orsted, who reported a $500 million impairment on its U.S. wind operations “as a result of the 75 basis points increase of the long-dated U.S. interest rates during the third quarter,” its chief financial officer Trond Westlie said on the company’s November 5 earnings call.
The residential solar company Sunrun, which also reported earnings last week, illustrated the peril and opportunities of higher rates and higher prices.
“To the extent interest rates are sustained at current levels, our capital costs would increase from levels realized throughout 2026,” Danny Abajian, chief financial officer of Sunrun, said on the company’s earnings call. “We expect to increase prices further in 2027 as utility rates continue to rise.”
Members wanted to seize the moment at a post-midterms Heatmap event in Washington, D.C.
Key House Democrats batted back against waiting until the next Congress to do a major permitting reform bill.
Speaking at a Heatmap event in downtown D.C. on Tuesday morning, multiple House Democrats — Representatives Nikki Budzinski of Illinois and George Whitesides and Scott Peters, both of California — all threw cold water on the idea that Democrats should wait until next year, when they will have full control over both houses of Congress, to advance a permitting bill like the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a.k.a. BAAJA.
“I disagree with that,” Budzinski, who is also vice-chair for policy for the New Democratic Coalition, a large bloc of Democrats, told me. Under the incoming Democratic majority, she said, it may be more challenging to convince Republicans to jump the fence to get to the 60 votes needed in the Senate.
“On these big issues, the question is, do we want to legislate for legislation to become law? Or legislate to talk about issues?” she asked. “I’m done after the last two years of doing messaging bills on the floor. I think this is a very unique opportunity.”
This push for a pause has come most forcefully from the likely incoming chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, Jared Huffman, who outlined his reasoning in an exclusive interview with me in October. Likely incoming Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Jeff Merkley echoed Huffman’s view ahead of the Senate vote to proceed on the permitting bill Monday night, saying this should be taken up by the next Congress, instead. The Senate motion succeeded on a vote of 73 to 25.
Both I and Heatmap founding editor Robinson Meyer asked lawmakers at the Heatmap event what they thought of Huffman and Merkley’s argument. All of them were quite bearish on the idea of a future deal between a Democratic Congress and Trump White House.
Peters went the furthest, summing up his view on the argument with two words: “That’s hokum.”
“That’s just not true,” he told me. “There’s no reason to expect that Jeff Merkley and Jared Huffman are going to do a better deal. I think the more likely thing is that they’re just not going to do a deal.” Instead, he advocated for using “the leverage we’ve just got” to advance the deal already on the table.
“Trump is a two-year problem,” he added. “We’re trying to solve a 30-year problem.”
Whitesides called Huffman, a fellow Californian, “a good friend and a very smart guy.” Of Huffman’s position on permitting, however, “I’m not totally sure that’s true,” he said
“The concern that people have is primarily around, can we trust this administration with anything, and how much of [the] decisions do you make [about] the next two years versus the next 20 years?” Whitesides told Rob. “And I think Senators [Sheldon] Whitehouse and [Martin] Heinrich are people that I trust on a fundamental level on issues of climate, of environment, of smart permitting reform.”
Heinrich, who spoke with Rob at Tuesday’s event, also attacked the notion of waiting, saying that he’s seen this suggestion fail “over and over again.” “When is that a real thing? Give me a break. We should do a lot more in the next Congress. Let’s get this as the floor and then let’s raise the floor everywhere we possibly can,” he said.
Heinrich noted a bizarre event the previous night, just as the Senate was preparing to vote on the motion to proceed. After previously endorsing BAAJA and reportedly striking a deal to advance wind farms in exchange for permitting reform legislation, Trump suddenly told reporters at a White House press briefing that the bill wasn’t finished being negotiated.
“I will not approve wind turbines because wind turbines are a major loser,” Trump said.
To Heinrich, this served to underscore why he will “take a win” with Trump “wherever I can get one, because it is fleeting and he is what he is.”
“My phone blew up” in the aftermath of Trump’s comments, Heinrich added. “The White House was like, sorry, he just says stuff. We all know that, right?”
Ray Long, CEO of renewable energy advocacy nonprofit ACORE, said onstage at the Heatmap event that Trump’s comments were actually “a nothingburger on our end.” He argued that while the wind approval blockade is a “real issue,” the legislation “will help to address this” by giving wind developers new statutory language to their benefit in court. (ACORE was a sponsor of the event.)
“That real check and balance on the system through the courts is working and this bill will only help to underpin unfortunately the future litigation that may have to come out as a result of this,” Long said.
Current conditions: The City of London has issued a pollution warning after fireworks launched in celebration of Guy Fawkes Day and Diwali created a dangerous haze over the British capital • The first snow of the season is coming to the northern parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast • The Southeast, too, is bracing for frost and chilly temperatures by the end of the week.
The Senate has permitted permitting reform to progress — or, as my colleague Jael Holzman put it, the bill “survived its first test.” On Monday evening, the chamber voted 73 to 25 to advance the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or BAAJA. The cloture vote — an initial procedural step to end debate on a bill and move to a final vote — split the Democrats who won new terms in last week’s election. Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Ruben Gallego of Arizona all voted yes; Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and Cory Booker of New Jersey voted no.
The vote drew swift condemnation from the conservation groups that overwhelmingly opposed the legislation from the start. “Sadly, the Senate has failed to learn a striking lesson from last week’s midterm elections — that Americans are fed up with unchecked aggression from Big Tech and the out-of-control construction of AI data centers,” Jim Walsh, the policy director at Food & Water Watch, said in a statement. The solar industry’s main lobby, on the other hand, praised the vote. “Americans urgently need lower energy costs, a better electric grid, and more energy made in the U.S.A. This bipartisan legislation delivers all three,” Tim Pawlenty, the chief executive at the Solar Energy Industries Association, said in a statement. Despite lending his support to the vote in a Sunday night statement, President Donald Trump threw a wrench into negotiations, stating from the podium of the White House briefing room Monday afternoon that he would not approve any new wind farms — a major stipulation for Democratic support of the bill. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, the Rhode Island Democrat who helped broker the deal, brushed it off, telling reporter Nico Portuondo, “He’s 80” and “didn’t get the memo.” The initial cloture vote is no guarantee of passage. Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican, raised concerns over Native American groups’ opposition to the bill and said she was not certain she would vote yes, despite casting a ballot to advance the legislation Monday.
After Southern Company completed work on the nation’s first two new reactors in a generation back in 2023 and 2024, the U.S. went through what I called a nuclear dry spell. Then in March, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave Bill Gates’ reactor developer TerraPower a construction permit for its debut plant in Wyoming. In September, the agency greenlit the Tennessee Valley Authority’s project to build what could end up being the country’s first small modular reactor, a water-cooled GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy BWRX-300, at the federally owned utility’s Clinch River site. Now the NRC has given Amazon-backed X-energy the agency’s first construction permit for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in nearly six decades. On Monday, the NRC greenlit the Long Mott Generating Station, designed to support chemical giant Dow’s Seadrift Operations plant on the Texas Gulf coast. The thumbs up for X-energy’s Xe-100, an 80-megawatt reactor that’s cooled with helium instead of water, marks what the NRC called “several regulatory firsts” for the agency. It’s the first approval of a facility meant to provide both electricity and heat; the first for a reactor that’s designed to be refueled while it’s still operating; and the first review of a reactor of its kind to use the agency’s new 18-month licensing pathway. NRC Chairman Ho Nieh said in a press release that this demonstrates the agency is capable of completing “rigorous safety reviews on predictable timelines that move advanced nuclear technology from design to construction.”
X-energy’s won’t be the nation’s first commercial high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, however. That was the Fort St. Vrain plant, Colorado’s only nuclear station, which shut down in the early 1990s after only a few years due to operating challenges. X-energy has told me it’s taken a lot of lessons from that plant’s failure into account in its design. The NRC permit offers “further validation” of the company’s plans, X-energy CEO J. Clay Sell said in a statement. “This is an important day,” he added. “Getting the construction permit earlier than expected is reflective of the thorough and efficient work of the NRC.”

A coalition of landowners is suing the Louisiana Public Service Commission for fast-tracking Meta’s vast data center complex in the state. In a lawsuit filed Monday, the trio of groups argued that regulators violated the state constitution by adopting a “lightning directive” pathway that allowed utility giant Entergy to skip steps designed to protect ratepayers as it sought approval for seven gas plants and transmission lines to serve the Facebook owner’s largest-ever data center, known as Hyperion. “We want our elected officials to be accountable to the people who elected them,” Dustin McAnn, a cattle farmer whose land is affected by the directive, told New Orleans Public Radio — “not to corporations, not to NDAs, not to secrecy, but to the people who elected them to the office they serve.”
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Until this summer, Seth Cohen served as the Trump administration’s bulldog in the Department of Energy, pushing to overhaul what the White House’s Department of Government Efficiency saw as unnecessary hurdles to building new nuclear power infrastructure. He left in June to return to the private sector. Now he’s looking to bring that same streamlining to data center construction. On Monday, he announced the launch of Mavria, a startup to design and deploy modular data centers in weeks rather than years. The company told The Wall Street Journal that it had raised a $130 million Series A at a nearly $1 billion valuation. Mavria’s first product line is called Terrain, a modular data center that can be hauled in by truck.
“The fundamental design philosophy for Terrain was, instead of asking the supply chain to bend to our designs, why not bend to the supply chain?” Cohen told me by phone yesterday. “With our projects, we’re going in and trying to match with communities that actually want us there in the first place — or, if they’re skeptical of data centers, where we can earn their trust and figure out how we can come in as a productive and beneficial member of the community.” Working on nuclear power, he said, taught him how to select good locations for infrastructure that carries political baggage. “The closer you go to a nuclear plant, the more popular nuclear becomes,” Cohen said. “We believe in a world where data centers will be more popular the closer you are to a Terrain deployment.”
The market for liquified natural gas — the version of the fuel that’s superchilled to liquid form for easy transport in tankers — is booming as prices skyrocket in response to the U.S. war in Iran, the Russian war in Ukraine, and cold weather in Europe. But could a bust be looming? A new analysis by the investigative site Gas Outlook found that a “tidal wave of new LNG capacity is coming and the war may ultimately lead to a deep market downturn in the years ahead.”
“While some LNG exporters are raking in record profits from war-time pricing, the boom could quickly turn to bust,” the outlet wrote, citing analysts. “Indeed, the LNG market was headed for a colossal glut prior to the war. That supply overhang has been delayed, but not wiped out.” Gas consumption actually declined a small amount this year, according to the latest estimates from the Global Carbon Project, contributing to a slight, 0.4% projected decline in global emissions from fossil fuels in 2026. Other factors in that decrease include the proliferation of clean energy and electric vehicles and the oil supply shock from the war in Iran.

Greta Thunberg rose to prominence in 2019 as a teenage protester who inspired students to boycott school over global inaction on climate change. In recent years, however, the Swedish activist has diversified her political portfolio to include virtually any left-wing movement in the Western world. She has become a high-profile figure in global protests against Israel, twice attempting to sail a flotilla to Gaza. She’s also appeared in support of the riots that tore through France in recent weeks. But after five years without attending a United Nations climate summit, Bloomberg found the now 23-year-old Thunberg standing in a long security line at COP31 late Monday afternoon at the start of the conference in Antalya, Turkey. “We’ve had 31 COPs now, and we’re still speeding in the wrong direction,” she told the newswire.