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Tech companies, developers, and banks are converging behind “flexible loads.”
Electricity prices are up by over 5% so far this year — more than twice the overall rate of inflation — while utilities have proposed $29 billion worth of rate hikes so far this year, compared to $12 billion last year, according to electricity policy research group PowerLines. At the same time, new data centers are sprouting up everywhere as tech giants try to outpace each other — and their Chinese rivals — in the race to develop ever more advanced (and energy hungry) artificial intelligence systems, with hundreds of billions of dollars of new investments still in the pipeline.
You see the problem here?
In the PJM Interconnection, America’s largest electricity market which includes Virginia’s “data center alley” as part of its 13-state territory, some 30 gigawatts of a projected 32 total gigawatts of load growth through 2030 are expected to come from data centers.
“The onrush of demand has created significant upward pricing pressure and has raised future resource adequacy concerns,” David Mills, the chair of PJM’s board of managers, said in a letter last week announcing the beginning of a process to look into the issues raised by large load interconnection — i.e. getting data centers on the grid without exploding costs for other users of the grid or risking blackouts.
Customers in PJM are paying the price already, as increasingly scarce capacity has translated into upward-spiraling payments to generators, which then show up on retail electricity bills. New large loads can raise costs still further by requiring grid upgrades to accommodate the increased demand for power — costs that get passed down to all ratepayers. PJM alone has announced over $10 billion in transmission upgrades, according to research by Johns Hopkins scholar Abraham Silverman. “These new costs are putting significant upward pressure on customer bills,” Silverman wrote in a report with colleagues Suzanne Glatz and Mahala Lahvis, released in June.
“There’s increasing recognition that the path we’re on right now is not long-term sustainable,” Silverman told me when we spoke this week about the report. “Costs are increasing too fast. The amount of infrastructure we need to build is too much. We need to prioritize, and we need to make this data center expansion affordable for consumers. Right now it’s simply not. You can’t have multi-billion-dollar rate increases year over year.”
While it’s not clear precisely what role existing data center construction has played in electricity bill increases on a nationwide scale, rising electricity rates will likely become a political problem wherever and whenever they do hit, with data centers being the most visible manifestation of the pressures on the grid.
Charles Hua, the founder and executive director of PowerLines, called data centers “arguably the most important topic in energy,” but cautioned that outside of specific demonstrable instances (e.g. in PJM), linking them to utility rate increases can be “a very oversimplified narrative.” The business model for vertically integrated utilities can incentivize them to over-invest in local transmission, Hua pointed out. And even without new data center construction, the necessity of replacing and updating an aging grid would remain.
Still, the connection between large new sources of demand and higher prices is pretty easy to draw: Electricity grids are built to accommodate peak demand, while the bills customers receive are based on a combination of the fixed cost of maintaining the grid for everyone and the cost of the energy itself, therefore higher peak demand and more grid maintenance equals higher bills.
But what if data centers could use the existing transmission and generation system and not add to peak generation? That’s the promise of load flexibility.
If data centers could commit to not requiring power at times of extremely high demand, they could essentially piggyback on existing grid infrastructure. Widely cited research by Tyler Norris, Tim Profeta, Dalia Patino-Echeverri, and Adam Cowie-Haskell of Duke University demonstrated that curtailing large loads for as little as 0.5% of their annual uptime (177 hours of curtailment annually on average, with curtailment typically lasting just over two hours) could allow almost 100 gigawatts of new demand to connect to the grid without requiring extensive, costly upgrades.
The groundswell behind flexibility has rapidly gained institutional credibility. Last week, Google announced that it had reached deals with two utilities, Indiana Michigan Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority, to incorporate flexibility into how their data centers run. The Indiana Michigan Power contract will “allow [Google] to reduce or shift electricity demand to carry out non-urgent tasks during hours when the electric grid is under less stress,” the utility said.
Google has long been an innovator in energy procurement — it famously pioneered the power purchase agreement structure that has helped finance many a renewable energy development — and already has its fingers in many pots when it comes to grid flexibility. The company’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, is an investor in Emerald AI, a software company that promises to help data centers work flexibly, while its urbanism-focused spinout Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners has backed Verrus, a demand-flexible data center developer.
Hyperscale developers aren’t the only big fish excited about data center flexibility. Financiers are, as well.
Goldman Sachs released a splashy report this week that cited Norris extensively (plus Heatmap). Data center flexibility promises to be a win-win-win, according to Goldman (which, of course, would love to finance an AI boom unhindered by higher retail electricity rates or long interconnection queues for new generation). “What if, thanks to curtailment, instead of overwhelming the grid, AI data centers became the shock absorbers that finally unlocked this stranded capacity?” the report asks.
The holy grail for developers and flexibility is not just saving money on electricity, which is a small cost compared to procuring advanced chips to train and run AI models. The real win would be to build new data centers faster. “Time to market is critical for AI companies,” the Goldman analysts wrote.
But creating a system where data centers can connect to the grid sooner if they promise to be flexible about power consumption would require immense institutional change for states, utilities, regulators, and power markets.
“We really don’t have existing service tiers in place for most jurisdictions that acknowledges and incentivizes flexible loads and plans around them,” Norris told me.
When I talked to Silverman, he told me that integrating flexibility into local decision-making could mean rewriting state utility regulations to allow a special pathway for data centers. It could also involve making local or state tax incentives contingent on flexibility.
Whatever the new structure looks like, the point is to “enshrine a policy that says, ‘data centers are different,’ and we are going to explicitly recognize those differences and tailor rules to data centers,” Silverman said. He pointed specifically to a piece of legislation in New Jersey that he consulted on, which would have utilities and regulators work together to come up with specific rate structures for data centers.
Norris also pointed to a proposal in the Southwest Power Pool, which runs down the spine of the country from the Dakotas to Louisiana, which would allow large loads like data centers to connect to the grid quickly “with the tradeoff of potential curtailment during periods of system stress to protect regional reliability,” the transmission organization said.
And there’s still more legal and regulatory work to be done before hyperscalers can take full advantage of those incentives, Norris told me. Utilities and their data center customers would have to come up with a rate structure that incorporates flexibility and faster interconnection, where more flexibility can allow for quicker timelines.
Speed is of the essence — not just to be able to link up more data centers, but also to avoid a political firestorm around rising electricity rates. There’s already a data center backlash brewing: The city of Tucson earlier this month rejected an Amazon facility in a unanimous city council vote, taken in front of a raucous, cheering crowd. Communities in Indiana, a popular location for data center construction, have rejected several projects.
The drama around PJM may be a test case for the rest of the country. After its 2024 capacity auction jumped came in at $15 billion, up from just over $2 billion the year before, complaints from Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro led to a price cap on future auctions. PJM’s chief executive said in April that he would resign by the end of this year. A few months later, PJM’s next capacity auction hit the price cap.
“You had every major publication writing that AI data centers are causing electricity prices to spike” after the PJM capacity auction, Norris told me. “They lost that public relations battle.”
With more flexibility, there’s a chance for data center developers to tell a more positive story about how they affect the grid.
“It’s not just about avoiding additional costs,” Norris said. “There’s this opportunity that if you can mitigate additional cost, you can put downward cost on rates.” That’s almost putting things generously — data center developers might not have a choice.
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The failure of the once-promising sodium-ion manufacturer caused a chill among industry observers. But its problems may have been more its own.
When the promising and well funded sodium-ion battery company Natron Energy announced that it was shutting down operations a few weeks ago, early post-mortems pinned its failure on the challenge of finding a viable market for this alternate battery chemistry. Some went so far as to foreclose on the possibility of manufacturing batteries in the U.S. for the time being.
But that’s not the takeaway for many industry insiders — including some who are skeptical of sodium-ion’s market potential. Adrian Yao, for instance, is the founder of the lithium-ion battery company EnPower and current PhD student in materials science and engineering at Stanford. He authored a paper earlier this year outlining the many unresolved hurdles these batteries must clear to compete with lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, also known as LFP. A cheaper, more efficient variant on the standard lithium-ion chemistry, LFP has started to overtake the dominant lithium-ion chemistry in the electric vehicle sector, and is now the dominant technology for energy storage systems.
But, he told me, “Don’t let this headline conclude that battery manufacturing in the United States will never work, or that sodium-ion itself is uncompetitive. I think both those statements are naive and lack technological nuance.”
Opinions differ on the primary advantages of sodium-ion compared to lithium-ion, but one frequently cited benefit is the potential to build a U.S.-based supply chain. Sodium is cheaper and more abundant than lithium, and China hasn’t yet secured dominance in this emerging market, though it has taken an early lead. Sodium-ion batteries also perform better at lower temperatures, have the potential to be less flammable, and — under the right market conditions — could eventually become more cost-effective than lithium-ion, which is subject to more price volatility because it’s expensive to extract and concentrated in just a few places.
Yao’s paper didn’t examine Natron’s specific technology, which relied on a cathode material known as “Prussian Blue Analogue,” as the material’s chemical structure resembles that of the pigment Prussian Blue. This formula enabled the company’s batteries to discharge large bursts of power extremely quickly while maintaining a long cycle life, making it promising for a niche — but crucial — domestic market: data center backup power.
Natron’s batteries were designed to bridge the brief gap between a power outage and a generator coming online. Today, that role is often served by lead-acid batteries, which are cheap but bulky, with a lower energy density and shorter cycle life than sodium-ion. Thus, Yao saw this market — though far smaller than that of grid-scale energy storage — as a “technologically pragmatic” opportunity for the company.
“It’s almost like a supercapacitor, not a battery,” one executive in the sodium-ion battery space who wished to remain anonymous told me of Natron’s battery. Supercapacitors are energy storage devices that — like Natron’s tech — can release large amounts of power practically immediately, but store far less total energy than batteries.
“The thing that has been disappointing about the whole story is that people talk about Natron and their products and their journey as if it’s relevant at all to the sodium-ion grid scale storage space,” the executive told me. The grid-scale market, they said, is where most companies are looking to deploy sodium-ion batteries today. “What happened to Natron, I think, is very specific to Natron.”
But what exactly did happen to the once-promising startup, which raised over $363 million in private investment from big name backers such as Khosla Ventures and Prelude Ventures? What we know for sure is that it ran out of money, canceling plans to build a $1.4 billion battery manufacturing facility in North Carolina. The company was waiting on certification from an independent safety body, which would have unleashed $25 million in booked orders, but was forced to fold before that approval came through.
Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, Natron’s founder, Colin Wessells, stepped down as CEO last December and left the company altogether in June.
“I got bored,” Wessels told The Information of his initial decision to relinquish the CEO role. “I found as I was spending all my time on fundraising and stockholder and board management that it wasn’t all that much fun.”
It’s also worth noting, however, that according to publicly available data, the investor makeup of Natron appears to have changed significantly between the company’s $35 million funding round in 2020 and its subsequent $58 million raise in 2021, which could indicate qualms among early backers about the direction of the company going back years. That said, not all information about who invested and when is publicly known. I reached out to both Wessels and Natron’s PR team for comment but did not receive a reply.
The company submitted a WARN notice — a requirement from employers prior to mass layoffs or plant closures — to the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Opportunity on August 28. It explained that while Natron had explored various funding avenues including follow-on investment from existing shareholders, a Series B equity round, and debt financing, none of these materialized, leaving the company unable “to cover the required additional working capital and operational expenses of the business.”
Yao told me that the startup could have simply been a victim of bad timing. “While in some ways I think the AI boom was perfect timing for Natron, I also think it might have been a couple years too early — not because it’s not needed, but because of bandwidth,” he explained. “My guess is that the biggest thing on hyperscalers’ minds are currently still just getting connected to the grid, keeping up with continuous improvements to power efficiency, and how to actually operate in an energy efficient manner.” Perhaps in this environment, hyperscalers simply viewed deploying new battery tech for a niche application as too risky, Yao hypothesized, though he doesn’t have personal knowledge of the company’s partnerships or commercial activity.
The sodium-ion executive also thought timing might have been part of the problem. “He had a good team, and the circumstances were just really tough because he was so early,” they said. Wessells founded Natron in 2012, based on his PhD research at Stanford. “Maybe they were too early, and five years from now would have been a better fit,” the executive said. “But, you know, who’s to say?”
The executive also considers it telling that Natron only had $25 million in contracts, calling this “a drop in the bucket” relative to the potential they see for sodium-ion technology in the grid-scale market. While Natron wasn’t chasing the big bucks associated with this larger market opportunity, other domestic sodium-based battery companies such as Inlyte Energy and Peak Energy are looking to deploy grid-scale systems, as are Chinese battery companies such as BYD and HiNa Battery.
But it’s certainly true that manufacturing this tech in the U.S. won’t be easy. While Chinese companies benefit from state support that can prop up the emergent sodium-ion storage industry whether it’s cost-competitive or not, sodium-ion storage companies in the U.S. will need to go head-to-head with LFP batteries on price if they want to gain significant market share. And while a few years ago experts were predicting a lithium shortage, these days, the price of lithium is about 90% off its record high, making it a struggle for sodium-ion systems to match the cost of lithium-ion.
Sodium-ion chemistry still offers certain advantages that could make it a good option in particular geographies, however. It performs better in low-temperature conditions, where lithium-ion suffers notable performance degradation. And — at least in Natron’s case — it offers superior thermal stability, meaning it’s less likely to catch fire.
Some even argue that sodium-ion can still be a cost-effective option once manufacturing ramps up due to the ubiquity of sodium, plus additional savings throughout the batteries’ useful life. Peak Energy, for example, expects its battery systems to be more expensive upfront but cheaper over their entire lifetime, having designed a passive cooling system that eliminates the need for traditional temperature control components such as pumps and fans.
Ultimately, though, Yao thinks U.S. companies should be considering sodium-ion as a “low-temperature, high-power counterpart” — not a replacement — for LFP batteries. That’s how the Chinese battery giants are approaching it, he said, whereas he thinks the U.S. market remains fixated on framing the two technologies as competitors.
“I think the safe assumption is that China will come to dominate sodium-ion battery production,” Yao told me. “They already are far ahead of us.” But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to build out a domestic supply chain — or at least that it’s not worth trying. “We need to execute with technologically pragmatic solutions and target beachhead markets capable of tolerating cost premiums before we can play in the big leagues of EVs or [battery energy storage systems],” he said.
And that, he affirmed, is exactly what Natron was trying to do. RIP.
They may not refuel as quickly as gas cars, but it’s getting faster all the time to recharge an electric car.
A family of four pulls their Hyundai Ioniq 5 into a roadside stop, plugs in, and sits down to order some food. By the time it arrives, they realize their EV has added enough charge that they can continue their journey. Instead of eating a leisurely meal, they get their grub to go and jump back in the car.
The message of this ad, which ran incessantly on some of my streaming services this summer, is a telling evolution in how EVs are marketed. The game-changing feature is not power or range, but rather charging speed, which gets the EV driver back on the road quickly rather than forcing them to find new and creative ways to kill time until the battery is ready. Marketing now frequently highlights an electric car’s ability to add a whole lot of miles in just 15 to 20 minutes of charge time.
Charging speed might be a particularly effective selling point for convincing a wary public. EVs are superior to gasoline vehicles in a host of ways, from instantaneous torque to lower fuel costs to energy efficiency. The one thing they can’t match is the pump-and-go pace of petroleum — the way combustion cars can add enough fuel in a minute or two to carry them for hundreds of miles. But as more EVs on the market can charge at faster speeds, even this distinction is beginning to disappear.
In the first years of the EV race, the focus tended to fall on battery range, and for good reason. A decade ago, many models could travel just 125 or 150 miles on a charge. Between the sparseness of early charging infrastructure and the way some EVs underperform their stated range numbers at highway speeds, those models were not useful for anything other than short hauls.
By the time I got my Tesla in 2019, things were better, but still not ideal. My Model 3’s 240 miles of max range, along with the expansion of the brand’s Supercharger network, made it possible to road-trip in the EV. Still, I pushed the battery to its limits as we crossed worryingly long gaps between charging stations in the wide open expanses of the American West. Close calls burned into my mind a hyper-awareness of range, which is why I encourage EV shoppers to pay extra for a bigger battery with additional range if they can afford it. You just had to make it there; how fast the car charged once you arrived was a secondary concern. But these days, we may be reaching a point at which how fast your EV charges is more important than how far it goes on a charge.
For one thing, the charging map is filling up. Even with an anti-EV American government, more chargers are being built all the time. This growth is beginning to eliminate charging deserts in urban areas and cut the number of very long gaps between stations out on the highway. The more of them come online, the less range anxiety EV drivers have about reaching the next plug.
Super-fast charging is a huge lifestyle convenience for people who cannot charge at home, a group that could represent the next big segment of Americans to electrify. Speed was no big deal for the prototypical early adopter who charged in their driveway or garage; the battery recharged slowly overnight to be ready to go in the morning. But for apartment-dwellers who rely on public infrastructure, speed can be the difference between getting a week’s worth of miles in 15 to 20 minutes and sitting around a charging station for the better part of an hour.
Crucially, an improvement in charging speed makes a long EV journey feel more like the driving rhythm of old. No, battery-powered vehicles still can’t get back on the road in five minutes or less. But many of the newer models can travel, say, three hours before needing to charge for a reasonable amount of time — which is about as long as most people would want to drive without a break, anyway.
An impressive burst of technological improvement is making all this possible. Early EVs like the original Chevy Bolt could accept a maximum of around 50 kilowatts of charge, and so that was how much many of the early DC fast charging stations would dispense. By comparison, Tesla in the past few years pushed Supercharger speed to 250 kilowatts, then 325. Third-party charging companies like Electrify America and EVgo have reached 350 kilowatts with some plugs. The result is that lots of current EVs can take on 10 or more miles of driving range per minute under ideal conditions.
It helps, too, that the ranges of EVs have been steadily improving. What those car commercials don’t mention is that the charging rate falls off dramatically after the battery is half full; you might add miles at lightning speed up to 50% of charge, but as it approaches capacity it begins to crawl. If you have a car with 350 miles of range, then, you probably can put on 175 miles in a heartbeat. (Efficiency counts for a lot, too. The more miles per kilowatt-hour your car can get, the farther it can go on 15 minutes of charge.)
Yet here again is an area where the West is falling behind China’s disruptive EV industry. That country has rolled out “megawatt” charging that would fill up half the battery in just four minutes, a pace that would make the difference between a gasoline pit stop and a charging stop feel negligible. This level of innovation isn’t coming to America anytime soon. But with automakers and charging companies focused on getting faster, the gap between electric and gas will continue to close.
On the need for geoengineering, Britain’s retreat, and Biden’s energy chief
Current conditions: Hurricane Gabrielle has strengthened into a Category 4 storm in the Atlantic, bringing hurricane conditions to the Azores before losing wind intensity over Europe • Heavy rains are whipping the eastern U.S. • Typhoon Ragasa downed more than 10,000 trees in Yangjiang, in southern China, before moving on toward Vietnam.
The White House Office of Management and Budget directed federal agencies to prepare to reduce personnel during a potential government shutdown, targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue, Politico reported Wednesday, citing a memo from the agency.
As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange warned in May, the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal civil service mean “it may never be the same again,” which could have serious consequences for the government’s response to an unpredictable disaster such as a tsunami. Already the administration has hollowed out entire teams, such as the one in charge of carbon removal policy, as our colleague Katie Brigham wrote in February, shortly after the president took office. And Latitude Media reported on Wednesday, the Department of Energy has issued a $50 million request for proposals from outside counsel to help with the day-to-day work of the agency.
At the Heatmap House event at New York Climate Week on Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer kicked things off by calling out President Donald Trump’s efforts to “kill solar, wind, batteries, EVs and all climate friendly technologies while propping up fossil fuels, Big Oil, and polluting technologies that hurt our communities and our growth.” The born and raised Brooklynite praised his home state. “New York remains the climate leader,” he said, but warned that the current administration was pushing to roll back the progress the state had made.
Yet as Heatmap’s Charu Sinha wrote in her recap of the event, “many of the panelists remained cautiously optimistic about the future of decarbonization in the U.S.” Climate tech investors Tom Steyer and Dawn Lippert charted a path forward for decarbonization technology even in an antagonistic political environment, while PG&E’s Carla Peterman made a case for how data centers could eventually lower energy costs. You can read about all these talks and more here.
Nearly 100 scientists, including President Joe Biden’s chief climate science adviser, signed onto a letter Wednesday endorsing more federal research into geoengineering, the broad category of technologies to mitigate the effects of climate change that includes the controversial proposal to inject sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to reflect the sun’s heat back into space. In an open letter, the researchers said “it is very unlikely that current” climate goals “will keep the global mean temperature below the Paris Agreement target” of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages. The world has already warmed by more than 1 degree Celsius.
Earlier this month, a paper in the peer-reviewed journal Frontiers argued against even researching technologies that could temporarily cool the planet while humanity worked to cut planet-heating emissions. But Phil Duffy, Biden’s former climate adviser, said in a statement to Heatmap that the paper “opposes research … that might help protect or restore the polar regions.” He went on via email, “As the climate crisis accelerates, we all agree that we need to rapidly scale up mitigation efforts. But the stakes are too high not to also investigate other possible solutions.”
President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Leon Neal/Getty Images
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to skip the United Nations annual climate summit in Brazil in November, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. He will do so despite criticizing his predecessor Rishi Sunak a few years ago for a “failure of leadership” after the conservative leader declined to attend the annual confab. One leader in the ruling Labour party said there was a “big fight inside the government” between officials pushing Starmer to attend the event those “wanting him to focus on domestic issues.”
Polls show approval for Starmer among the lowest of any leaders in the West. But he has recently pushed for more clean energy, including signing onto a series of nuclear power deals with the U.S.
The Tennessee Valley Authority has assumed the role of the nation’s testbed for new nuclear fission technologies, agreeing to build what are likely to be the nation’s first small modular reactors, including the debut fourth-generation units that use a coolant other than water. Now the federally-owned utility is getting into fusion. On Wednesday, the TVA inked a deal with fusion startup Type One Energy to develop a 350-megawatt plant “using the company’s stellarator fusion technology.” The deal, first brokered last week but reported Tuesday in World Nuclear News, promises to deploy the technology “once it is commercially ready.” It also follows the announcement just a few days ago of a major offtake agreement for fusion leader Commonwealth Fusion Systems, which will sell $1 billion of electricity to oil giant Eni.
Climate change is good news for foreign fish. A new study in Nature found that warming rivers have brought about the introduction of new invasive species. This, the researchers wrote, shows “an increase in biodiversity associated with improvement of water in many European rivers since the late twentieth century.”