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Current conditions: There’s a high risk of avalanches in the Cascade Mountains after a storm dumped up to 14 inches of snow • The AQI in Dubai is back down to 80 after spiking to 155 this weekend • The high is in the low 50s in Central Park, which has been without snow for a record-breaking 659 days.
COP28 continued for its third and fourth days in Dubai this weekend. Here’s a quick primer on what you might have missed:
Monday’s agenda is focused on finance, trade, gender equality, and accountability.
Get Heatmap AM in your inbox every weekday morning:
Speaking of methane, on Saturday the Biden administration announced the finalization of long-in-the-making regulations that will rein in methane leaks from existing and future oil and gas wells. The EPA says the rules will prevent the equivalent of 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide from being emitted between 2024 and 2038, almost as much as was emitted by all power plants in the country in 2021. The total benefits created by the new limits, the administration estimates, will reach $98 billion by 2038.
“The U.S. now has the most protective methane pollution limits on the books,” said Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund, which has played a major role in exposing the dangers of methane.
During an online event in late November, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber claimed there is “no science out there” to support phasing out fossil fuels to mitigate global warming, The Guardian and the Center for Climate Reporting jointly reported on Sunday. Al Jabar, who is also the chief executive of the UAE’s state oil company Adnoc, further claimed in the conversation that such a phase-out was “alarmist” and would “take the world back into caves.”
The leaked comments have caused a stir on the ground in Dubai, where Al Jaber was already under fire following a BBC report that he planned to use the climate summit to promote oil interests. (A spokesperson denied this). U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the president’s newly revealed comments were “verging on climate denial,” while Oil Change International’s Romain Ioualalen said that Al Jaber’s “science-denying statements are alarming and raise deep concerns about the presidency’s capacity to lead the U.N. climate talks.”
A 28-year-old Florida man was arrested last week after he allegedly threatened to carry out a “mass casualty event” at Thursday’s Cybertruck promotional event in Austin, the Austin-American Statesman reported this weekend.
Tesla was notified of the threat after a man, identified as Paul Ryan Overeem of Orlando, said in an Instagram group chat that he was “planning” an attack at the event “so up to you guys to stop me.” In another message, Overeem allegedly said “I plan on killing people” and “I would like you to do something about it so I don’t have to.” He was arrested in Austin’s Travis County after driving there from Florida, and has been charged with terroristic threat.
Though the event was attended by Elon Musk, NBC News writes the CEO did not appear to be a specific target and the suspect, rather, “appeared to object to technology in modern life.”
Airplane contrails — those white, vaporous ribbons that follow jets across the sky — have long drawn scrutiny from environmental activists, who’ve pointed to them as a major source of warming, saying the creation of high clouds could trap heat in the atmosphere à la the greenhouse gas effect. Boeing and NASA have been conducting test flights to explore if sustainable aviation fuel could help limit contrails, while Google and Bill Gates-funded Breakthrough Energy climate action group have experimented with rerouting planes through regions of the atmosphere that are less likely to induce contrails.
But a new report by David Lee, an influential researcher of aviation and climate who previously looked at the issue in a 2021 paper, has found that “the fundamental premise” that contrails are concerning enough to warrant mitigation investment “is not yet established,” The Seattle Times reports. The science around contrails and the climate is extremely complicated — that much is clear — but Lee writes that it is so uncertain that efforts to limit contrails could actually be “of limited effect” or even “have unintended consequences,” like burning longer-lasting CO2 to reroute planes.
Marc Shapiro of Breakthrough Energy, who is working to reduce contrails, told the Times, “to be totally frank, our numbers are coming up on the low end of David Lee’s [2021] estimates as well.”

Life on pause in Munich, where Bavarian broadcaster Bayerischer Rundfunk reports the 17.3 inches of snowfall on Saturday were the most since recordkeeping began in 1933.
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The data center boom is everywhere you look in U.S. economic and emissions data.
This is an edition of Heatmap Daily, an evening review of the day’s news written by our executive editor. Sign up for it here.
It isn’t exactly a new thought, but I’ve been struck recently by how many trends in America’s economic and environmental data are fundamentally about the data center boom and the return of electricity demand:
First, the Energy Information Administration reported this week that U.S. emissions grew by more than 2% last year, driven by surging electricity demand and an increase in coal-fired generation. What caused that higher power demand? New factories and data centers — as well as record summertime cooling demand.
Second, many of the new factories driving that higher power demand are themselves producing goods that are … let’s say … data center-adjacent. There are the enormous new semiconductor fabs, of course. But Ford and General Motors have also set up new production lines (or repurposed old ones) to manufacture grid-scale batteries to meet power demand.
Third, take a look at the recent U.S. spending on private non-residential construction — in other words, everything American companies are building that is not houses, condos, or apartments.
The construction industry’s spent almost $60 billion on data centers over the past year, which is more than it spent on all other office buildings combined (and more than it spent building warehouses, too). Just a handful of categories — data centers, power plants, electricity infrastructure, and certain kinds of electronics manufacturing — now make up a third of all U.S. private non-residential construction investment. They’ve never made up such a large share of construction spending since data collection began in 2014.
As The New York Times recently noted, the American economy is unusually dependent on the American stock market right now — and the stock market is unusually dependent on artificial intelligence. This week, investors started to balk at the enormous spending hyperscalers are planning to keep building out the AI boom; Alphabet’s shares dropped 8% this week after it boosted its planned 2026 capital expenditure and signaled 2027 will be even bigger. If the data center boom started to slow down in earnest, then more than just that budget will change.
Speaking of which, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo wrote earlier this week about how many businesses are struggling to even estimate their carbon emissions from artificial intelligence. The carbon accounting startup Watershed recently unveiled a new formula to help companies get a sense of their AI-related emissions.
But even that formula is still limited by the amount of data hyperscalers publish — and they don’t publish that much. Google, for instance, is the only AI company that has (laudably) provided estimates of its emissions on a per-prompt basis. Yet no company has published its per-token emissions, or how emissions sync up with particular models or regions.
So Emily asked Google: Why aren’t you — or any other model provider — disclosing this kind of data yet?
The tech company didn’t get back to us until after we’d published Emily’s story. But its response was interesting enough that I wanted to quote some of it here.
The problem is “industry consensus,” Cooper Elsworth, a Google spokesperson, told us. “There is currently very little consensus on how to comprehensively and fairly measure the serving environmental impact of generative AI (such as text generation),” he wrote. “Without standardized, ‘apples-to-apples’ frameworks, it is difficult to compare different providers accurately.”
That’s partly because energy use — and emissions data — can vary from site to site and depend on “custom-built hardware, software compilers, and advanced inference techniques.” And he claimed Google doesn’t always have the measurement hardware in place to provide such specific estimates: “Providing precise, repeatable data requires highly advanced measurement infrastructure,” he said. “For example, software-based energy monitoring tools often suffer from sampling biases. For our study, we had to step away from top-down averages and directly measure actual energy at the physical power supply unit (PSU) level across our deployed fleet. Not all providers have the telemetry or data sets required to benchmark their operations at this level of granularity.”
Read Emily’s story to understand the other reasons why estimating — or even “guesstimating” — AI-related carbon emissions is so challenging.
A conversation with Emma Uridge of the Kansas Health Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Emma Uridge, analyst with the Kansas Health Institute. Uridge spent copious hours analyzing state and local laws on data center development to best understand how policymakers are responding to the potential environmental public health impacts of large AI infrastructure, including power and water. The report, which came out this week, also goes in depth into those health impacts. I reached out to her to discuss what she sees as must-watch territory for our readers on this emerging policy arena.
Our conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
What is actually being done on policy when it comes to data centers — beyond moratoria of course?
So first I’d like to just talk about the point of moratoria. It’s helpful to talk about how these policies emerge in the first place. One area where moratoria are helpful is when a data center is proposed but the county has no approach for how they’d like to potentially regulate them. That’s temporary, most of the time. It lets local governments conduct research on the various impacts and also negotiate community benefits, ones that can mitigate any potential negative impacts — like Lancaster Pennsylvania, which instituted a community benefit agreement that maximized the potential benefits of development while mitigating what large data centers can do. That agreement looked at capping municipal water use at 20,000 gallons per day and requiring 100% clean energy. It had financial penalties for non-compliance. The company also committed $20 million to their local economic development and clean energy fund. There are ways to negotiate with developers.
We also see amendments to existing zoning. Data center proposals are increasingly popping up in rural areas, many of which are unzoned, so there’s no way a county can negotiate unless there’s a moratorium in place.
Other policy solutions include different performance standards or requiring on-site renewable energy, like what Jefferson County, Missouri, looked at. Also setback requirements, mandatory noise buffers, ending by-right zoning.
Where are local governments getting ideas for regulating data centers?
A lot of the technical information comes from developers. That can in cases be seen as a biased source of information. I wouldn’t say there’s a dedicated group providing assistance to local governments when a project is proposed — which is a similar story to wind industry development, where we have only a handful of consultants who provide technical advice. It can be really helpful to get a multi-disciplinary approach to hearing information. It can be helpful to have the utility commission, public health folks, those in academia, as well as the developer.
As of right now, especially in rural areas, local governments have a hard task of balancing pushback while getting the most accurate, evidence-based, neutral information to make decisions. That balance can be contentious.
What is the federal government doing on data center policy? How is the Trump administration approaching it?
A few things there. In the early days, the drive was for AI expansion and to be competitive with foreign adversaries. Now due to the amount of public pushback in red and blue localities and a more cautious approach.
I’m not seeing a lot of actual policy movement at this time.
I know the EPA is looking at the chemicals used in cooling data centers because when that water is cycled through the system, some of it is discharged into the water system, so they’re looking at the Toxic Substances and Control Act for monitoring that.
How much of an impact does this minimal federal role have on industry behavior?
Y’know, this isn’t specific to data centers. This is true for all kinds of large-scale development: there’s a need to require some sort of federal monitoring and regulation.
That’s where I see an emerging role for public health. At the federal level, there could be policy movement towards requiring some sort of environmental monitoring at data centers to make sure they’re operating responsibility. Looking at specific water use relative to water availability and what happens when there’s a time of severe, persistent drought. With air quality too — we’ve seen areas where the grid isn’t as reliable so their diesel generators are kicking on more and affecting air quality for residents.
We’re just not seeing all of that right now. We need corporate disclosure.
What do you see as the most important public health impacts from data center development?
It varies by localities. The most discussed obviously is water usage. One thing I’d note about my conversations with folks enthusiastic around emerging tech is, there are still questions that need to be asked about the capacity of localities to support a data center. Like a small town in Kansas may only be using 40% of their water for their utility needs. If a data center came online, how much of that water goes to the data center?
One area underexplored within the public health discipline is energy poverty and energy security. The ability of a household to meet the needs of everything energy provides in our lives. It’s known we have an aging electric grid but we’re not talking enough about large-scale blackouts when the grid is not sufficient to support some of these new data centers.
Plus more of the week’s big development fights.
1. Laramie County, Wyoming — Meta is fighting the fine it received in the Cheyenne data center water pollution controversy, and the conflict between the tech giant and the city’s small board of public utilities is continuing to spill out into the public.
2. Niagara County, New York — This county just rejected a solar project’s highway work permits in a show of retaliation against the state’s Office of Renewable Energy Siting.
3. Barron County, Wisconsin — The anti-solar protest is the new campaign stop in deep red Wisconsin.
4. Chesapeake, Virginia — A large battery storage project on the Virginia coastline is on the rocks amidst rampant local opposition.
5. Lewis County, West Virginia — West Virginia is now a key battleground in the fight over transmission, as a line spanning all of West Virginia and Maryland — and cutting through Data Center Alley in Virginia — causes compounding consternation.