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Climate

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising

On the carbon budget, Rivian, and permitting reform

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising
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Current conditions: A brush fire caused major delays to Amtrak journeys along the East Coast • More flood alerts have been issued for Spain as new storms loom • It’s cloudy in Washington, where President Biden will host President-elect Donald Trump at the White House today.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Fossil fuel emissions are still going up

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise again this year, and there is “no sign” of a peak, according to the Global Carbon Project. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal in 2024 will hit about 37.4 billion metric tons, up 0.8% from 2023. Total CO2 emissions – including from land-use changes like deforestation and wildfires – will rise to 41.6 billion metric tons, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year. Projected emissions vary on a regional level: China’s are expected to rise by 0.2%, while U.S. emissions are expected to fall 0.6%. India’s will be up 4.6%, while the EU’s will be down by nearly 4%. Notably, emissions from land-use changes have been falling for a decade but are set to rise this year. And then there’s this sobering reminder: “Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.” The research team behind the project estimates that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target will be breached in six years.

Relatedly, in a speech at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, asked: “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual? What on Earth are we doing in this gathering, over and over and over, if there is no common political will on the horizon to go beyond words and unite for meaningful action?”

2. Climate finance goal debate continues at COP

In other news from Baku, nations have been debating the draft text for a new climate finance goal, the most anticipated initiative at this year’s conference. Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss reported that the text had “ballooned” from 9 pages to 34. “Before there were just 3 options for what the goal would look like – now there are also 13 ‘sub-options,’” he said. A large number of developing countries reportedly rejected the original document, asking for at least $1.3 trillion in adaptation finance and saying they don’t want to broaden the contributor base to include China and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, developed countries “are indicating that they don’t want to commit to providing more than $100 billion a year unless the contributor base is expanded,” Climate Home News reported. A new draft text on the finance goal is expected later today.

3. Rivian and Volkswagen finalize joint venture

The $5 billion deal between Rivian and Volkswagen Group, announced back in June, was finalized this week. And it’s about 16% bigger than initially thought, according to TechCrunch. Volkswagen will actually invest up to $5.8 billion in the electric pickup maker through 2027. The partnership will provide an influx of capital for Rivian, while VW gets access to the EV company’s technology. The joint venture kicks off today.

4. Exclusive: Lawsuit threatens Michigan’s permitting reform law

The most important legal challenge for the renewables industry in America may have just been filed in Michigan, reported Jael Holzman in a Heatmap exclusive. On Friday afternoon, about 70 towns and a handful of Michigan counties appealed the rule implementing part of a new renewable energy siting law – PA 233 – providing primary permitting authority to the Michigan Public Services Commission and usurping local approval powers in specific cases. The law was part of a comprehensive permitting package passed last year by the state legislature and seen by climate advocates as a potential model for combatting NIMBYs across the country. The appeal challenges multiple aspects of the law’s implementation, saying it went beyond statute, as well as the rulemaking procedure itself, claiming it failed to follow proper processes. “The lawsuit aims to effectively undo the law going into effect,” Holzman explained, “or at least enjoin what opponents say are the most onerous restrictions on municipalities and county governments.”

5. Florida prepares for another potential hurricane

Forecasters are watching a tropical development in the western Caribbean that is expected to strengthen into Sara, the 18th named storm of the season and the 12th hurricane. The storm could strike Florida as a hurricane next week, according to AccuWeather, just weeks after Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the state. “Should the feature become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes,” said AccuWeather’s hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

AccuWeather

THE KICKER

“There is no national security, there is no economic security, there is no global security, without climate security.” –U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaking at COP29.

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Air conditioners in Spain.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

There is a heat wave in Europe, the world’s fastest warming continent. And so, as you may have heard, a perennial topic of online climate discourse has returned: Why don’t more Europeans have air conditioning?

I’m partially convinced this is psy op, or at least a figment of how social media organizes attention. I have a hypothesis that various “For You” page algorithms, especially that of the social network X, began to reward content that performed unusually well across national borders a few years ago. Since then, the amount of America vs. Europe content has surged. (Of course, writers have been comparing American and European lifestyles for much longer than that.)

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It’s not just renewables anymore.

A data center and a farm.
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The movement against data centers is raising up a raison d'etre of the anti-renewables movement: protecting would-be farmland.

Farm owners and operators across the U.S. are winning national headlines almost every week for rejecting big dollar offers from data center developers. In Hanover County, Virginia, protestors are chanting “Grow Tomatoes, Not Data Centers.” In Pennsylvania and elsewhere, Republican legislators are mulling proposals to block the sale of so-called “prime farmland” for data center development. In Texas, the fight over data center development has engulfed the race for the state’s ag commissioner seat. In the Midwest, where agriculture reigns supreme, statewide races and congressional campaigns are slowly but surely being defined by the issue. Like in Nebraska where Austin Ahlman, an independent candidate running for Congress in Nebraska’s first district, told me he believes the data center backlash is reflective of a populist politics that broadly criticize elites and top-down control of the economy: “I think sometimes people misunderstand the anxieties of rural Americans when it comes to these data centers because a lot of their fears are about control long term.”

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Hotspots

Far-Right Wind Foes Call It Quits Against Coastal Virginia

And more of the week’s top news around project fights.

The United States.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Virginia Beach, Virginia – The right-wing interest group lawsuit against Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind is now dead, concluding one of the wackier tales of the Trump 2.0 energy era.

  • In case you may have forgotten, conservative activists – including climate denial organization the Heartland Institute – sued the federal government in 2024 to strike down the permits for the Virginia offshore wind project arguing that it didn’t take into account impacts on North Atlantic right whales. The lawsuit played into misinformed public fears that offshore wind was killing lots of endangered whales.
  • After Trump re-entered office last year, there were glimmers this lawsuit would become a sue-and-settle case. But the feds ultimately let that idea go amidst heavy lobbying. In May, the presiding judge ruled against the conservatives and last week their lawyers dismissed the appeal.
  • This outcome removes one of the more ridiculous hypotheticals possible here – that Trump would forcibly deconstruct Coastal Virginia. The project is nearing completion and began delivering power to the coastline in March. I’d consider this one as good as done.

2. Box Elder County, Utah – Call it the Box Elder County massacre.

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