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Climate

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising

On the carbon budget, Rivian, and permitting reform

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A brush fire caused major delays to Amtrak journeys along the East Coast • More flood alerts have been issued for Spain as new storms loom • It’s cloudy in Washington, where President Biden will host President-elect Donald Trump at the White House today.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Fossil fuel emissions are still going up

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise again this year, and there is “no sign” of a peak, according to the Global Carbon Project. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal in 2024 will hit about 37.4 billion metric tons, up 0.8% from 2023. Total CO2 emissions – including from land-use changes like deforestation and wildfires – will rise to 41.6 billion metric tons, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year. Projected emissions vary on a regional level: China’s are expected to rise by 0.2%, while U.S. emissions are expected to fall 0.6%. India’s will be up 4.6%, while the EU’s will be down by nearly 4%. Notably, emissions from land-use changes have been falling for a decade but are set to rise this year. And then there’s this sobering reminder: “Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.” The research team behind the project estimates that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target will be breached in six years.

Relatedly, in a speech at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, asked: “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual? What on Earth are we doing in this gathering, over and over and over, if there is no common political will on the horizon to go beyond words and unite for meaningful action?”

2. Climate finance goal debate continues at COP

In other news from Baku, nations have been debating the draft text for a new climate finance goal, the most anticipated initiative at this year’s conference. Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss reported that the text had “ballooned” from 9 pages to 34. “Before there were just 3 options for what the goal would look like – now there are also 13 ‘sub-options,’” he said. A large number of developing countries reportedly rejected the original document, asking for at least $1.3 trillion in adaptation finance and saying they don’t want to broaden the contributor base to include China and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, developed countries “are indicating that they don’t want to commit to providing more than $100 billion a year unless the contributor base is expanded,” Climate Home Newsreported. A new draft text on the finance goal is expected later today.

3. Rivian and Volkswagen finalize joint venture

The $5 billion deal between Rivian and Volkswagen Group, announced back in June, was finalized this week. And it’s about 16% bigger than initially thought, according toTechCrunch. Volkswagen will actually invest up to $5.8 billion in the electric pickup maker through 2027. The partnership will provide an influx of capital for Rivian, while VW gets access to the EV company’s technology. The joint venture kicks off today.

4. Exclusive: Lawsuit threatens Michigan’s permitting reform law

The most important legal challenge for the renewables industry in America may have just been filed in Michigan, reported Jael Holzman in a Heatmap exclusive. On Friday afternoon, about 70 towns and a handful of Michigan counties appealed the rule implementing part of a new renewable energy siting law – PA 233 – providing primary permitting authority to the Michigan Public Services Commission and usurping local approval powers in specific cases. The law was part of a comprehensive permitting package passed last year by the state legislature and seen by climate advocates as a potential model for combatting NIMBYs across the country. The appeal challenges multiple aspects of the law’s implementation, saying it went beyond statute, as well as the rulemaking procedure itself, claiming it failed to follow proper processes. “The lawsuit aims to effectively undo the law going into effect,” Holzman explained, “or at least enjoin what opponents say are the most onerous restrictions on municipalities and county governments.”

5. Florida prepares for another potential hurricane

Forecasters are watching a tropical development in the western Caribbean that is expected to strengthen into Sara, the 18th named storm of the season and the 12th hurricane. The storm could strike Florida as a hurricane next week, according to AccuWeather, just weeks after Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the state. “Should the feature become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes,” said AccuWeather’s hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

AccuWeather

THE KICKER

“There is no national security, there is no economic security, there is no global security, without climate security.” –U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaking at COP29.

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Electric Vehicles

The New Electric Cars Are Boring

Give the people what they want — big, family-friendly EVs.

Boredom and EVs.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images, Apple

The star of this year’s Los Angeles Auto Show was the Hyundai Ioniq 9, a rounded-off colossus of an EV that puts Hyundai’s signature EV styling on a three-row SUV cavernous enough to carry seven.

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AM Briefing: Hurricane Season Winds Down

On storm damages, EV tax credits, and Black Friday

The Huge Economic Toll of the 2024 Hurricane Season
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Parts of southwest France that were freezing last week are now experiencing record high temperatures • Forecasters are monitoring a storm system that could become Australia’s first named tropical cyclone of this season • The Colorado Rockies could get several feet of snow today and tomorrow.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Damages from 2024 hurricane season estimated at $500 billion

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season caused an estimated $500 billion in damage and economic losses, according to AccuWeather. “For perspective, this would equate to nearly 2% of the nation’s gross domestic product,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. The figure accounts for long-term economic impacts including job losses, medical costs, drops in tourism, and recovery expenses. “The combination of extremely warm water temperatures, a shift toward a La Niña pattern and favorable conditions for development created the perfect storm for what AccuWeather experts called ‘a supercharged hurricane season,’” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “This was an exceptionally powerful and destructive year for hurricanes in America, despite an unusual and historic lull during the climatological peak of the season.”

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Climate

First Comes the Hurricane. Then Comes the Fire.

How Hurricane Helene is still putting the Southeast at risk.

Hurricanes and wildfire.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Less than two months after Hurricane Helene cut a historically devastating course up into the southeastern U.S. from Florida’s Big Bend, drenching a wide swath of states with 20 trillion gallons of rainfall in just five days, experts are warning of another potential threat. The National Interagency Fire Center’s forecast of fire-risk conditions for the coming months has the footprint of Helene highlighted in red, with the heightened concern stretching into the new year.

While the flip from intense precipitation to wildfire warnings might seem strange, experts say it speaks to the weather whiplash we’re now seeing regularly. “What we expect from climate change is this layering of weather extremes creating really dangerous situations,” Robert Scheller, a professor of forestry and environmental resources at North Carolina State University, explained to me.

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