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Climate

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising

On the carbon budget, Rivian, and permitting reform

Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Still Rising
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A brush fire caused major delays to Amtrak journeys along the East Coast • More flood alerts have been issued for Spain as new storms loom • It’s cloudy in Washington, where President Biden will host President-elect Donald Trump at the White House today.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Fossil fuel emissions are still going up

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise again this year, and there is “no sign” of a peak, according to the Global Carbon Project. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal in 2024 will hit about 37.4 billion metric tons, up 0.8% from 2023. Total CO2 emissions – including from land-use changes like deforestation and wildfires – will rise to 41.6 billion metric tons, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year. Projected emissions vary on a regional level: China’s are expected to rise by 0.2%, while U.S. emissions are expected to fall 0.6%. India’s will be up 4.6%, while the EU’s will be down by nearly 4%. Notably, emissions from land-use changes have been falling for a decade but are set to rise this year. And then there’s this sobering reminder: “Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.” The research team behind the project estimates that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target will be breached in six years.

Relatedly, in a speech at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, asked: “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual? What on Earth are we doing in this gathering, over and over and over, if there is no common political will on the horizon to go beyond words and unite for meaningful action?”

2. Climate finance goal debate continues at COP

In other news from Baku, nations have been debating the draft text for a new climate finance goal, the most anticipated initiative at this year’s conference. Carbon Brief’s Josh Gabbatiss reported that the text had “ballooned” from 9 pages to 34. “Before there were just 3 options for what the goal would look like – now there are also 13 ‘sub-options,’” he said. A large number of developing countries reportedly rejected the original document, asking for at least $1.3 trillion in adaptation finance and saying they don’t want to broaden the contributor base to include China and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, developed countries “are indicating that they don’t want to commit to providing more than $100 billion a year unless the contributor base is expanded,” Climate Home Newsreported. A new draft text on the finance goal is expected later today.

3. Rivian and Volkswagen finalize joint venture

The $5 billion deal between Rivian and Volkswagen Group, announced back in June, was finalized this week. And it’s about 16% bigger than initially thought, according toTechCrunch. Volkswagen will actually invest up to $5.8 billion in the electric pickup maker through 2027. The partnership will provide an influx of capital for Rivian, while VW gets access to the EV company’s technology. The joint venture kicks off today.

4. Exclusive: Lawsuit threatens Michigan’s permitting reform law

The most important legal challenge for the renewables industry in America may have just been filed in Michigan, reported Jael Holzman in a Heatmap exclusive. On Friday afternoon, about 70 towns and a handful of Michigan counties appealed the rule implementing part of a new renewable energy siting law – PA 233 – providing primary permitting authority to the Michigan Public Services Commission and usurping local approval powers in specific cases. The law was part of a comprehensive permitting package passed last year by the state legislature and seen by climate advocates as a potential model for combatting NIMBYs across the country. The appeal challenges multiple aspects of the law’s implementation, saying it went beyond statute, as well as the rulemaking procedure itself, claiming it failed to follow proper processes. “The lawsuit aims to effectively undo the law going into effect,” Holzman explained, “or at least enjoin what opponents say are the most onerous restrictions on municipalities and county governments.”

5. Florida prepares for another potential hurricane

Forecasters are watching a tropical development in the western Caribbean that is expected to strengthen into Sara, the 18th named storm of the season and the 12th hurricane. The storm could strike Florida as a hurricane next week, according to AccuWeather, just weeks after Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the state. “Should the feature become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes,” said AccuWeather’s hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.

AccuWeather

THE KICKER

“There is no national security, there is no economic security, there is no global security, without climate security.” –U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaking at COP29.

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Climate

AM Briefing: Raising $1 Trillion

On COP29 funding goals, congestion pricing, and the Cybertruck

Climate Finance Must Reach $1 Trillion a Year
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Smog in India has obscured views of the towering Taj Mahal • Thousands of people have evacuated Málaga, Spain, due to extreme flooding • Most of the U.S. will experience higher-than-average temperatures through the end of the week.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Economists say poor nations need $1 trillion a year in climate finance

Developing nations will need at least $1 trillion a year in climate finance by 2030, growing to $1.3 trillion by 2035, according to new analysis from economists with the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance. The study was released as negotiators continue to hammer out a new climate finance goal at COP29. The current funding goal – $100 billion per year – was agreed in 2009. Meanwhile, Brazil unveiled its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) yesterday. The country aims to cut emissions between 59% and 67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels and “gradually replace” the use of fossil fuels. But as Climate Home Newsreported, “the South American nation is also planning to increase oil and gas production by 36% by the same year.” The U.S. is expected to announce its new NDC at the climate summit.

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Technology

Climate Tech Companies Plan For Survival Under Trump

They grew up on Biden-era climate regulations and tax credits. What happens now?

Altering a road sign.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

A mere two years ago, climate world was awash in optimism as the tax credits in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act and other Biden-era legislation opened up exciting opportunities for climate tech companies. Now, Trump has said he wants to repeal the IRA in its entirety and “terminate” all of its unspent funds. So what becomes of the crop of startups that were either born directly out of or buoyed by IRA incentives and other positive policy developments?

Let’s take a look at a few examples. First there’s Crux, a marketplace for the transferable clean energy tax credits unlocked by the IRA. There’s also Watershed, a $1.8 billion software startup that helps businesses track and reduce their carbon emissions. And there’s Quilt, which makes a sleek, small, and expensive electric heat pump.

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Electric Vehicles

We Talked to the Guy Making Those Anti-Elon Musk Bumper Stickers

Embarrassed to be driving a Tesla these days? You’re not alone.

A Tesla with anti-Musk bumper stickers.
Heatmap Illustration/Tesla, Etsy

Tesla is ubiquitous. Following Election Day, the company’s shares broke the $1 trillion mark, making the electric vehicle manufacturer more valuable than the next 15 automakers combined. Much of that is because Elon Musk’s company is likely to benefit from its CEO having President-elect Donald Trump’s ear. But it’s also because Teslas are good EVs — the Model Y is one of Heatmap’s top picks for someone who wants to make a stress-free switch away from gasoline.

The problem is, well, Elon. Though 35% of respondents to a Heatmap poll last winter said the controversial and erratic executive made them more likely to want to purchase a Tesla, there are plenty of people who wouldn’t be caught dead in an EV that in any way benefits the newly minted government efficiency crusader.

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