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A Q&A with Villanova’s Stephen M. Strader on the legacy of Hurricane Andrew, unsustainable development, and why building codes alone aren’t enough.

In around 12 hours, Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall within miles of Tampa Bay, a region that is home to more than 5 million people. Once a sleepy retirement community, the area has seen a major development boom in recent years fueled by Millennials and Gen Zers seeking the perks of coastal living; it was the 11th fastest-growing city of its size in the U.S. as of this spring and has been expected to continue to grow at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the country over the next five years. A third of those residents, including many of the newcomers, live in low-lying neighborhoods now under urgent evacuation notices due to the threat of “unsurvivable” storm surge, which could rise up to 15 feet.
The development boom that has made Tampa Bay so desirable is also why it’s particularly vulnerable. In an analysis of Hurricane Ian — the most expensive storm in Florida’s history, which struck just south of Milton’s projected track in 2022 — the re-insurance company Swiss Re found that if the storm had struck in the 1970s, it would have caused a third to a half as much damage. Simply put: You can’t adapt your way out of a hurricane problem.
If there is anyone to talk to about the vulnerabilities unique to Tampa Bay, it’s Stephen M. Strader, an associate professor and hazard geographer at Villanova University. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
You shared an image on Twitter of the explosive growth in the Tampa Bay area between 1940 and 2024. Why does this make the region vulnerable to a storm like Milton? Is it just about there being more people there?
When we think about disasters, we think of the intersection of three components: a violent event, like what we have with Milton; vulnerability, or what types of people could be in the path, which could be related to racial divides, age, and gender norms; and what a lot of my work focuses on, exposure.
Exposure is just the number of people or things that we care about — businesses, schools, and things like that — that are subject to losses if an event occurs. Florida is a great example of rapid urbanization since the 1900s, and it’s rapid development in a very hazard-prone region.
It can be easy for outsiders to sit back and wonder why anyone would buy a house on the water or on a barrier island near Tampa.
There are a lot of factors that come into play when you think about where we develop and why we develop certain locations. One of the biggest pressures that we see is that it’s desirable land: In the short term, people want to live near the water. It’s beautiful! People don’t think necessarily about the risk that comes with it because they’re too focused on their dream, which is to live near the ocean.
The other side of that is, from an economic standpoint, people see it as an opportunity to have businesses and to build condos. Developers see the land and think, “How much could I buy this for and sell it for with homes on it?” This really started back with Carl Fisher, who was famous for building the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. He was a thrill-seeker, but also a businessman and developer, and he loved to go to South Florida — which is now Miami Beach, and then was swamps and mangroves and not developed at all. And he thought, Hmm, this would be a great place for people to visit for vacations and experiences. He slowly started filling in the wetlands with sand. And that’s the history of Florida's development: It continued because this was very valuable land.
There is a lot of socioeconomic pressure to develop in these areas, but we’re also starting to see it change. Those pressures are lessening because you have insurance industries now and events like this year after year.
There is another issue in Southwest Florida, which is that many of the homes were constructed before building codes were updated, right?
I tend to do a lot more work on the manufactured housing side. Before 1974, all manufactured homes were called mobile homes, and there wasn’t really a standard. Then, in 1974, the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development came in and said, “We need to increase the standards,” and they did.
Fast-forward to 1992 and Hurricane Andrew, and they realized these codes were not strong enough. Many people lived in manufactured homes that were destroyed by Andrew, which was a very windy hurricane. We think hurricanes are wind threats because of Andrew, but hurricanes are water threats, and most deaths occur because of that water. Andrew was the opposite.
Between 1992 and 1994, they updated building codes for manufactured housing, and actually, along the coastline, Florida has some of the strongest codes for manufactured homes in the country. A lot of the areas that will be affected by Milton will have those strong standards. But many homes were also grandfathered in if they were built before that time.
That’s just one type of housing. My guess is that when you have a lot of rapid development since the 1990s — well, I have some questions about structural integrity since building codes can be strong but they might not be followed. And we sometimes don’t know until afterwards. A lot of what is being built are condos or McMansions — it’s basically, How fast can you build them, how cheap can you build them, and how high can you sell them? And they look great until their performance is put into question.
Insurance companies are starting to see this and ask, “How do we retrofit structures?” Structure-wise, though, I think Tampa is in a decent spot. The problem is, the water is so powerful that it’s not going to matter.
What kinds of conversations do you think Floridians should be having about development or potential redevelopment after Milton?
I’m a huge proponent of resisting the urge to build right back — the reason being that’s how you get repetitive losses. The hard part is, with a lot of insurance, if you have it, you only get provisions to build back the way you were. You don’t have the ability to improve. So what I end up telling people is, sometimes these disasters provide an opportunity to assess what we need to do from a planning standpoint. This is unsustainable development, and not just because of hurricanes, but because of rising sea levels and the stress on the environment. And unfortunately, a lot of these developments were built on top of wetlands and marshes and mangroves that used to protect the island areas as natural barriers.
The hard part is that people’s emotions are very strong after disasters, and they immediately want to return to how things were. That’s why you see people picking up the pieces the day after a storm, sometimes even when they’re injured. So we have to resist the urge as a group, and say, maybe this isn’t the time to think about rebuilding here.
Many wetland restoration projects in Florida are doing that very thing: reclaiming the environments that protected people inland. But on the other side you have developers and builders and local economies that rely on people coming to these areas, and that pressures people to come right back. Then you end up with a situation of repetitive losses and that’s why FEMA has been losing money over the years — it’s not so much that we’re putting money toward disasters but that we’re not getting value out of it, because it’s so much more likely for there to be impacts because of that exposure growth. Look at what happened after Helene and what’s going to happen with Milton: We’re splitting resources between the two. But we’re doing the best with the tools we have when there’s pressure on both sides, and considerations both economic and safety.
Is there anything else people should know about the geography of Tampa or the development risk there?
This storm is going to be different than other storms, and that’s because of the direction and intensity of it. The one thing we have to remember is that all that development — and everybody, for the most part, who isn’t 100 years old — has not experienced a hurricane of this magnitude in their life. That means everyone has the cognitive bias to say, “I’ve been through hurricanes before and was fine.” That is probably not going to be the case with this event; no one has been through this before.
What’s worrisome to me is that the trajectory of the hurricane is changing. A subtle shift north or south by 20 miles could mean a big difference for the Tampa region — if you have the right side of the hurricane push water into the Bay, it’s no different than 10 people jumping into a hot tub. The water level goes up and forces all that water into a smaller region, which is going to lead to more storm surge in Tampa Bay, Clearwater, and the St. Pete area. I don’t want to call it a “perfect storm,” but if you push all that water in there, you’re going to flood people in a way that hurricanes they’ve been through before never got close to. And I worry, if it goes south, about Fort Myers and the areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Ian. So it’s multilayered.
The good news that I’ll bring up is that we’re reeling from Helene, which means people have it in their brains about how bad this can be, which is probably causing more people to evacuate than normal. We have a problem with disaster amnesia in places where a hurricane hasn’t happened in a long time so “it’s not going to happen again.” And we forget. I remember Hurricane Katrina and what it did to New Orleans. It still has effects, but the students I’m teaching now weren’t even alive when it hit. These memories are short, and many people in Florida today weren’t there 30 years ago or 20 years ago. The only good thing to come out of Helene is that people are now aware of what can happen.
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Current conditions: The 100-degree Fahrenheit temperatures in Spain won’t drop until Tuesday • Tropical Storm Domeng is barreling toward the Philippines, the country's second major cyclone this month • New satellite images show that Santa Rosa Island, the so-called Galapagos of California, is scarred from the wildfire that torched the landmass earlier this month.
The spending bill House Republicans put forward this week for the Department of the Interior comes with yet another blow to the offshore wind industry. The legislation the House Appropriations subcommittee advanced last week would impose a range of fees on offshore wind projects, including $7,300 annual fees for onshore inspection visits and $15,400 for a visual inspection of an individual turbine. Further physical inspections of a turbine or substation would total $72,800. The fees, E&E News reported, “could amount to much more than is paid by offshore oil companies for inspections, given that the language calls for per-turbine inspections and wind farms include many turbines.” In a statement, Timothy Fox, the managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, told the newswire: “This appears as another direct effort to constrain the offshore wind industry. The Trump Administration has already significantly constrained proposed offshore wind projects and may hope the inspection fees undermine the viability of projects already in service.”
It’s the GOP’s latest contribution to President Donald Trump’s effort to sentence the offshore wind industry to what I called earlier this month a death by a thousand cuts. The move comes as offshore wind projects keep coming online, despite the Trump administration pulling out all stops to try to thwart their development. The White House’s latest effort to halt construction on offshore turbines — paying off developers to abandon projects — is attracting increased scrutiny, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo has extensively reported of late.
Hot off the hottest initial public offering of the year so far (though soon to be eclipsed by SpaceX, no doubt), next-generation geothermal pioneer Fervo Energy has suffered a potential setback. On Thursday, Axios reported that the company had experienced a blowout at its first commercial power plant in Utah. The extent of the damage was not yet clear last night. But the accident — not uncommon at geothermal sites — could potentially delay the closely-watched project to build its debut plant at Cape Station in southwestern Utah.
Still, things are looking bright for geothermal. The House plans to vote on a bipartisan package of bills next week designed to ease permitting rules on the renewable energy source lauded by Republicans for its synergies with oil and gas and by Democrats for its 24/7 output of carbon-free electricity. The package will include a mix of bills authored by lawmakers in both parties and passed in March via unanimous consent, according to Politico.
Until recently, the phrase nuclear renaissance has described something aspirational. But the real money is starting to flow into the once-moribund atomic energy industry. New data from the International Energy Agency pegged annual investment into nuclear energy at more than $80 billion each year now, with close to 80 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity under construction across 15 countries. The bulk of that is either in China or made up of Russian technology in countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey.
As I told you last month, America’s nuclear dry spell is over, with two new commercial reactors breaking ground in April. And companies are on something of a nuclear deal spree. Corporate power purchase contracts for nuclear power, meanwhile, are booming.
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This summer is going to be a hot one. But natural gas consumption for power production this summer will remain near recent highs, according to the latest outlook from the Energy Information Administration. Despite a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer, new generation from renewables will offset the spike and keep gas-fired generation relatively flat. That is, until next year. In 2027, the EIA expects electricity from gas to hit a new record.
The world’s most populous nation is also one of its most coal-addicted. But India is racing to build enough alternatives to offset its demand for a fuel so widely burned that major metropoles on the subcontinent are artificially cooled by the sulfur coal spews in the air. New data from the Indian consultancy JMK Research found that India added 14.2 gigawatts of solar energy capacity in the first three months of 2026, a 95% increase from the previous quarter. That includes 12.1 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and 2 gigawatts of rooftop solar units, PV Tech reported.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., new large-scale solar projects are advancing. The U.S. developer BrightNight announced this week that it had secured financing for its 120-megawatt Frontier solar project in Kentucky. “This milestone reflects not only the strength of this project, but also our ability to consistently bring complex projects from concept to fully financed reality,” BrightNight CEO Martin Hermann said in a statement.
It’s looking sunny in New York. On Thursday, the Empire State passed a bill to legalize plug-in solar panels that can go on renters’ balconies, clearing the way for the majority of city residents to harness the benefits of photovoltaics. “Balcony solar will reduce New Yorkers’ utility bills AND their emissions,” state Representative Emily Gallagher, the Brooklyn progressive who authored the legislation, wrote in a post on X. “It will dramatically expand who has access to the solar economy and strengthen the power of the renewable movement.”
The Pacific Northwest has become the unlikely vanguard in the movement to protect renters from extreme heat.
Washington State’s 2026 legislative session ended not with a bang, but with an alarm. On a drizzly mid-March evening before adjourning for the year, lawmakers filed out of the capitol having narrowly averted a special session over a data center tax break bill. “Someone or something” had set off the rotunda’s fire alarm, according to a local news outlet; returning after the brief delay, legislators cast their final vote, approving the state’s $79.4 billion spending plan.
The alarm was, in many ways, a fitting end to the state’s adrenaline-pumping 60-day short session, which saw 1,669 new bills introduced. Most were DOA due to time and ever-present budget constraints. Among the casualties was HB 2265, a bill to “protect tenants from periods of extreme heat” by extending a landlord’s responsibilities to include adequate cooling in rental units alongside the usual standbys of basic habitability, heat and hot water.
Had the law passed, Washington — somewhat bizarrely — would have gone further than any other state in the country in pushing landlords to provide air conditioning or a similar cooling system to their renters. While such laws might be expected in places like California, Nevada, or Arizona (which comes closest by requiring landlords to maintain ACs that are already installed), in Washington, the largest city, Seattle, was in fact the least air-conditioned metro area in the country until 2021, and remains second only to San Francisco.
“A lot of people think of the Pacific Northwest as mossy, mountainous, green, and damp,” John Seng, the policy manager at Spark Northwest, a Seattle-based clean energy nonprofit, told me. “But that misses out that on the east side of both Oregon and Washington, things have been getting really hot for a long time.”
Indoor air temperature maximums are not a new idea — Dallas has had one since 2017 — but the few laws on the books are almost exclusively in hot-climate cities and counties. Yet extreme heat is spreading: Between 1970 and 2022, 95% of the nearly 250 U.S. locations analyzed by Climate Central saw an increase in the number of days per year with dangerously high temperatures, with an average increase of 21 days. At the same time, one in three Americans is a renter — a population far less likely to have central AC than homeowners. Though the Pacific Northwest would seem to be an unlikely leader in protecting people from extreme heat, it has nevertheless become a bellwether for the ability of local officials to protect their residents from increasingly deadly temperatures.
“We are changing our climate so much that now, in most places in the country, cooling is just as necessary as heating,” Brian Henning, the director and founder of the Gonzaga Institute for Climate, Water, and the Environment, told me.
Washington isn’t alone in responding to the changing conditions in its corner of the country. A similar story is playing out in Oregon, which failed to pass its own early-stage right-to-cooling bill, SB 54, during last year’s legislative session. (That bill would have required landlords of multi-family buildings to provide cooling when outdoor temperatures exceed 80 degrees.) Now, Portland’s Permitting and Development Bureau is exploring a maximum-temperature code for rentals, which activists hope will serve as a model for a legislative sponsor to take up in a future statewide session.
“It feels like the Pacific Northwest is beginning to grapple with questions that desert cities addressed decades ago, which is, namely: What constitutes a safe indoor temperature during extreme heat?” Vivek Shandas, the founder of the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab at Portland State University, told me of the proliferation of such bills, ordinances, and laws in the area.
That ponderance is coming not a moment too soon. Of the 75 counties in Washington and Oregon, residents in all but seven have disproportionately low concern given their respective extreme-heat risks, according to research by Yale’s Program on Climate Change Communication published in Nature Communications this month. Of those 75 counties, just three scored below the national median on the CDC’s Heat & Health Index, a risk measurement that considers indicators such as historical heat exposure, prevalence of health conditions such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes, and socioeconomic factors like age and income. Nearly a third scored well within the upper range of risk nationally. Combined with the fact that architecture in the Northwest was designed for decades to retain heat, and that the region has some of the fastest-warming urban areas in the country, the upper left-hand corner of the country is uniquely susceptible — and unprepared — for extreme heat, the deadliest climate change and weather-related disaster in North America.
That fact was made tragically clear during the 2021 heat dome, the record-breaking, model-breaking event that killed more than 250 people across the states and served as the catalyst for housing activists, climate organizers, and policymakers. Though researchers like Shandas, who studies urban heat, had been aware that the Northwest was a public-health disaster waiting to happen, there were a few particularly startling takeaways: Though “most people think of heat risk as something that happens outside,” Shandas said, the vast majority of the people who died during the heat dome died inside, and most were likely renters living in multifamily homes. Some were even found with fans turned on full blast, pointed directly at their bodies.
“A lot of people don’t know that if your space is higher than about 90 degrees indoors, a fan actually increases your risk of heat‑related illness or death, not decreases it,” Henning said. That’s because a fan cools you by moving air over your skin to wick away sweat, a process that accelerates dehydration and can actually radiate heat into your body if the air temperature is warmer than your skin. Even worse, rather than lowering the indoor temperature, fans give an “illusion of safety,” Dante Jester, the climate resilience program manager at the Gonzaga Institute for Climate, Water, and the Environment, told me, so people delay moving to a genuinely cool place or calling for help.
“People’s cooling strategies that they’ve used for decades in Spokane” — where more than 300 people were hospitalized during the 2021 heat dome — “aren’t working anymore,” Jester went on. “Historically, people would open their windows at night. They would go for a drive and run the AC with their kids in the car seats. They would run fans. But all of these things are becoming less and less efficient and more and more dangerous.” What’s more, as smoke becomes an increasing public health hazard due to the duration and intensity of the fire season, officials are more reluctant to tell people to keep their windows open for a cross-breeze.
How, then, to keep renters — who make up between 30% and 40% of the households in Washington and Oregon — safe? The answer: Incrementally. Though HB 2265 died in committee this spring, Democratic lawmakers managed to pass its sister bill, SB 6200, even during a short session dominated by efforts to balance the budget and debate over the Millionaires Tax. The Senate bill makes it illegal for a landlord in Washington state to prevent a renter from installing their own AC unit — that is, it is an access law rather than a habitability one.
“The statewide policy that passed [SB 6200] was actually based on the renter’s right-to-install ordinance that we helped pass in Spokane in 2024,” Jester said. “We thought of it at the time as a first step, or an on-ramp, to this greater goal of requiring residencies to be cooled.”
If the Spokane right-to-install AC ordinance was the on-ramp to statewide adoption, then the failure of HB 2265 could potentially be shrugged off as jumping the gun. That’s because activists in Spokane are now testing whether true right-to-cooling legislation can find a pathway forward via a local ordinance, which would make it a legal requirement for landlords to provide a way to keep their units under 80 degrees Fahrenheit, the same way temperature minimums ensure they provide heat in the winter.
Shandas, the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab researcher, told me he conceptualizes the path forward for right-to-cooling laws in the Northwest as a three-step approach. The first stage is permission — laws like the 2024 ordinance in Spokane and SB 6200.
The second stage is recognition of extreme heat as an imminent public health threat. Though the now-dead HB 2265 would have been a big push toward requiring landlord-provided ACs in rental units, it didn’t do so explicitly; rather, it tweaked the state’s rental code to include cooling alongside heating as a basic habitability requirement. A bill like HB 2183, which also died during the 2026 session, would have further required Washington counties to develop and implement heat response plans, which gets at the bills’ larger purpose: to grapple with the fact that the housing stock, legal system, policies, electrical systems, and even emergency services in the Northwest are all designed for a cooler climate.
Though it feels like an in-between stage, recognition is especially crucial, James Moschella, the climate and health program manager at Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility, a health professional-fronted environmental advocacy group, told me. When paramedics respond to a case of heat stroke, for example, the first thing they often do is place the patient in the bathtub in their own home, along with everything in their freezer, to try to lower their body temperature as quickly as possible. “Ambulance response times during the heat dome were significantly down because of the way they have to treat people at their homes,” Moschella said. “As a result, by the time paramedics often got to a home, in many cases the person was already dead.” One small part of a comprehensive heat plan would be anticipating that problem, perhaps by staging more ambulances on a hot day.
The third stage is performance standards — that is, defining enforceable indoor temperature limits, like what Spokane is moving toward. “I think this evolution mirrors how heating standards developed historically in other parts of the world,” Shandas said. “Unfortunately, I think we need to be accelerating this much faster, going from stage one to three in a fraction of the time that it took lower latitude regions to go through.”
Because there are few examples of existing temperature maximum laws, though, policymakers and researchers in the Northwest are feeling their way forward mostly on their own. Even something as basic as what the maximum temperature should be requires ponderance, debate, and compromise. In Spokane, policymakers settled on 80 degrees. “It’s similar to how it was done for heating, that every habitable space needs to be able to get up to 65 [degrees],” Shandas said. “Some would say, Wow, 65 is really high for a cold day, can’t you get by with 60? And it’s like, sure, you can, but you’re trying to make policy for a very large, diverse demographic.”
Eighty degrees Fahrenheit, while generally safe for most populations, is the point at which the body may begin to feel the stress or undergo physiological responses that affect certain medications, such as antipsychotics. Still, Henning told me he’d advocated for an even lower limit given existing research on safe sleeping temperatures, which puts the range closer to 74 to 76 degrees, especially for seniors and the very young.
Implementation is also a topic of discussion. Housing advocates in Spokane wanted to go beyond a “right to install AC” ordinance, not just because they believe cooling deserves to be recognized as a legal habitability requirement like heating, but also because of the potential financial burden of acquiring, installing, and especially running an air conditioner. What’s unique about the Spokane ordinance, though, is that it sets an expected indoor temperature rather than mandating how that temperature is achieved. “The goal isn’t to force people to buy air conditioning,” Henning said, “but to provide spaces that are safe.” Maybe the 80-degree threshold could be maintained, for example, by shading building windows with trees.
Powerful landlord advocacy groups have generally opposed right-to-cooling movements on the grounds that they’re very expensive. (Multifamily NW, a landlord trade association and one of the major opponents of Oregon’s SB 54, and Rental Housing Association of Washington, which opposed HB 2265, did not respond to my requests for comment.) Retrofitting costs, electrical capacity, and grid stress are legitimate concerns, Shandas told me. “Even heat pumps,” he said, “are pretty energy-hungry appliances, and older multifamily residential homes might not have good insulation or windows,” meaning you could end up with the efficiency conundrum the Rocky Mountain Institute’s Amory Lovins has memorably likened to running an AC in a tent.
Other researchers were less sympathetic to this case. “Infrastructure costs money, and that’s what landlords are agreeing to when they choose to buy units and then have them paid for by other people,” Jester told me. “That’s how it goes: If you’re renting to people, it should be a requirement that it has to be livable, in my opinion.”
Who pays, though, is one of the major questions of climate adaptation. No one is arguing that extreme heat isn’t dangerous. But is it on tenants, landlords, utilities, or governments to front the costs of making their homes and communities livable?
The problem sounds daunting, put that way. And the pressure is on: By Shandas’ estimation, what happens in Spokane and Portland, and eventually at the state level in Washington and Oregon, “is really going to be the test case for what the legal right to cooling looks like” in the United States. Organizers and researchers in Massachusetts, New York, and Minnesota have already reached out to him about their own efforts to codify maximum temperatures into law. “These are all higher-latitude regions that are looking to the Pacific Northwest and saying, Holy crap, yeah, we have to get ready for this, because if it could happen in Portland and Seattle, it can happen anywhere. We were the bellwether,” Shandas said.
But next year will be another tight budget year in Washington, and while Democrats control the legislature, HB 2265 will need tweaks to get a broader coalition on board. “I think nobody was quite ready to move without a little bit more of a plan on exactly how we would define healthy temperatures and measure them,” Seng, of Spark Northwest, told me of its initial failure.
“Another piece is cost,” Seng added. “I think housing developers get pretty squeamish about new requirements like that.” Sure enough, landlords have successfully watered down temperature regulations elsewhere, including L.A. County, which last year approved a maximum indoor temperature of 82 degrees for rentals located outside city limits — albeit with plenty of exemptions and delays available for property owners. Landlord groups have also so far successfully staved off a California-wide temperature maximum law by pouring millions into lobbying efforts.
But even more than the usual happy warrior attitude typical of activists, the researchers in Washington and Oregon described the right-to-cooling laws as inevitable, given the climate. The question is whether a multi-stage approach or the fast-track pursuit of local ordinances, rather than the sluggish statewide process, will yield results soon enough. The heat dome baking Europe this week serves as an ominous reminder that extreme heat may return to the region at any time, and the Northwest has had only five short years since its wake-up call in 2021 to prepare.
But prepare it has. “The legal invention of cooling rights — that’s part of what I’m really excited to be alive right now to see,” Shandas said.
The Metropolitan Police Service signed a deal with BetterFleet to manage the complicated logistics.
Police officers can’t be stuck waiting for their black-and-whites to recharge when an emergency call comes in. That urgency makes it especially tricky to transition their fleets away from fossil fuels and the lightning-fast gas fill-ups that get cars back on the road.
But some cities and departments have begun to make the move, aided by artificial intelligence models to manage their many vehicles and ensure electric cars can do not just the next job, but every job. Around the world, trucking companies, buses, municipal vehicles, and other huge fleets want to go electric to save money on fuel and maintenance, and they’re looking to AI to give them the confidence to take the plunge.
A cleaner fleet of cop cars is already coming to London, where the Metropolitan Police Service has turned over nearly a third of its fleet to hybrids or EVs. Last week, the MPS announced a partnership with the firm BetterFleet to manage how and when it charges its EVs, helping the service pursue its goal of a net-zero carbon emissions fleet by the end of the decade.
Much of the challenge is psychological, says BetterFleet CEO Dan Hilson. His solution is to use the power of data to overcome whatever anxiety an organization might have about switching to EVs, whether it’s range anxiety or fear of dealing with fluctuating electricity prices or something else entirely. During our interview earlier this month at the ACT Expo, a conference on advanced technology in fleets and trucking, Hilson told me that his company was able to prove to the London police that, with enough information and planning, “there’s no route you can’t do. There’s no day that you’ve done in the last three years that you couldn’t have done if it was electric.”
To demonstrate, BetterFleet builds digital twins of an operation — data-driven models that consider anything that would impact a vehicle’s range, from its own weight and cargo and the condition of its battery and motors to its planned route and speed. Even external conditions such as weather and traffic must be included to create as accurate a picture as possible of the vehicle’s condition and state of charge at any given moment.
While the approach sounds straightforward enough, hiccups come from unexpected places when you’re simulating the real world. BetterFleet found while working with King County Metro and its Seattle-area bus fleet that recharging times could vary widely between two pieces of charging equipment that look identical. “We thought, Hey, this is physics. It should just work in a particular way. But it really doesn’t,” Hilson said.
You also can’t always get what you want, data-wise. For example, Hilson said he thought automakers had access to battery information about things like degradation over time or what’s happening with the battery’s chemistry or temperature at any given moment. “Almost none of them have that, believe it or not,” he said. “And that’s because some of the original manufacturers of the batteries don’t seem to be able to give it.” His team had to work around it, building their own algorithms based on observed data to model how fast, say, an electric semi truck’s battery life would fade and adjust for it in the numbers.
BetterFleet had previously modeled and managed fleets such as London’s buses and the EV semi trucks that have been moving soft drinks around for Pepsi. But the electrification of emergency vehicles represents a next-level challenge. Bus routes are unchanging; trucking paths are predictable. Police may have beats and typical areas of service, but they must be able to respond elsewhere at a moment’s notice. As such, Hilson told me that part of his firm’s deal with the MPS was the inclusion of priority charging, so that critical vehicles could get back on the road faster. BetterFleet also must consider the possibility of when and where cop cars might use DC fast chargers to fill up quickly — an issue for departments everywhere. I often see a police Tesla or two refueling at a Supercharger in South Pasadena, California I often visit.
Indeed, while AI could have cascading benefits for EV fleets — think of predictive maintenance systems that learn which parts are likely to fail when — charging is one place where this kind of machine learning could be an enormous difference-maker right away. Trucking companies that want to go electric and steer clear of diesel price shocks don’t need to buy a $100,000 fast-charger for every truck; they need AI to tell them how many they really need if their whole fleet spreads out and optimizes its charging schedule. Grizzled lifelong trucking fleet managers don’t particularly want to become experts in complex energy markets in order to maximize their savings by charging EV trucks at the cheapest times, Hilson says. They just want AI to do it.
A variety of firms are moving into this space to help out companies that want to dip their toes into EVs. Katie Siegel, CEO of the charging management service FlipTurn, said at ACT that AI-managed charging has helped her firm balance the electrical demand of fleets by moving much of it to off-peak hours. While that approach netted thousands of dollars of savings per month, especially during summer, the benefits weren’t just monetary. For one client, such a demand-flattening approach got trucks and chargers up and running four to six months sooner than expected because it meant they didn’t have to wait for the utility to deliver extra capacity.
With so many data insights available, the trick now is deciding what matters. “The worst customers really says, It’s all important,” Hilson says. “Every single thing is important. I want my battery to be saved. I want energy savings. I want it to always be ready for trucks to pull out. So it’s about sitting with customers and really getting to that crux of what really is important. What’s the hierarchy?”