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On Cabinet nominations, COP29, and superconductor scandals
Current conditions: Ecuador has declared a 60-day state of emergency to battle wildfires • Londoners were treated to rare snow flurries this morning • Storm Sara, having caused deadly flooding in Honduras, is set to drench the Gulf Coast.
The first atmospheric river of the season will slam into the Pacific Northwest this week, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, mountain snow, and possibly major flooding to California and Oregon. A foot of rain or more could fall in Northern California between today and Friday, triggering landslides and bringing “life-threatening impacts” to the 400,000 acres or so left scorched by this summer’s Park Fire. Along the coast, wind gusts could reach 90 mph.
AccuWeather
Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, New York City’s drought watch has been upgraded to a drought warning. The warning applies to at least 10 counties across the Hudson Valley. Residents are being encouraged to use less water. If the situation worsens, a drought emergency will be declared, and mandatory water restrictions will be put in place.
Just three days remain in the official schedule for the COP29 climate summit, and hopes are dimming that negotiators will agree on an ambitious new climate finance goal. When it comes to helping developing nations prepare for and adapt to climate change, the main questions are: Who pitches in? How much do they pay? And what counts as climate finance? Consensus has proven difficult to find. “It is deeply disturbing to witness the climate finance negotiations come to a standstill,” Harjeet Singh, global engagement director at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, toldThe New York Times. “Developed nations continue to display a disturbing level of apathy, viewing vital climate finance as mere investments rather than the lifeline that developing countries urgently need.” The last time the climate talks ended in a stalemate was 2009.
Some 7,000 miles away, in Brazil, G20 leaders are trying to keep up the climate action momentum by publishing a “communique” urging successful negotiations in Baku, backing scaling up finance from billions to trillions, and reiterating support for the push to triple renewables and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements. While the document doesn’t directly mention transitioning away from fossil fuels, it does “fully subscribe” to the outcomes of COP28, where such a landmark commitment was made.
Meanwhile, a new analysis from Carbon Brief suggests that China’s historical carbon emissions have surpassed those of the EU. China’s special envoy for climate change, Liu Zhenmin, told a Shanghai-based newspaper that it would be “impossible” for China to contribute to a new climate finance goal and that developed countries bear that responsibility. Earlier this week the White House confirmed that the U.S. had reached President Biden’s goal of contributing $11 billion a year in international climate finance. This makes the U.S. “the largest bilateral provider of climate finance in the world.”
President-elect Donald Trump will nominate Sean Duffy to lead the Department of Transportation. Duffy is a former Wisconsin congressman and is co-host of the Fox Business show “The Bottom Line.” Last week Trump tapped another Fox News host, Pete Hegseth, as his defense secretary. Trump said Duffy will “maintain and rebuild our Nation’s Infrastructure, and fulfill our Mission of ushering in The Golden Age of Travel, focusing on Safety, Efficiency, and Innovation. Importantly, he will greatly elevate the Travel Experience for all Americans!” As Transportation Secretary, Duffy would oversee the nation’s rail, automotive, aviation, and other transportation sectors. He would likely be tasked with rolling back the Biden administration’s vehicle emissions rules, and “face pressure to ease rules for self-driving cars sought by Tesla and other automakers,” Reutersreported.
The board of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority yesterday approved Gov. Kathy Hochul’s plan to roll out congestion pricing in the city. The $9 fee to enter lower Manhattan is expected to come into effect in early January. It’s much lower than the $15 charge that Hochul initially proposed – then walked back – earlier this year. It will deliver an estimated $15 billion to help improve the city’s mass transit system. Critics argue the fee will do little to reduce gridlock and could dump traffic and pollution into low-income neighborhoods.
The physics professor who rocked the energy world last year when he claimed to have discovered a room-temperature superconductor has left the University of Rochester, the Wall Street Journal reported. An investigation into the academic, Ranga Dias, revealed he engaged in research misconduct, and the Naturearticle featuring the superconductor “breakthrough” was subsequently retracted. At the time the paper was published, the Journal reported that such a discovery “could mean longer-lasting batteries, more-efficient power grids, and improved high-speed trains.” The university didn’t confirm the terms of Dias’ departure.
The first onshore wave energy system in the United States has been granted permitting approval. The pilot project will be installed by Eco Wave Power in the Port of Los Angeles, and is expected to be completed early next year.
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The Loan Programs Office is good for more than just nuclear funding.
That China has a whip hand over the rare earths mining and refining industry is one of the few things Washington can agree on.
That’s why Alex Jacquez, who worked on industrial policy for Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, found it “astounding”when he read in the Washington Post this week that the White House was trying to figure out on the fly what to do about China restricting exports of rare earth metals in response to President Trump’s massive tariffs on the country’s imports.
Rare earth metals have a wide variety of applications, including for magnets in medical technology, defense, and energy productssuch as wind turbines and electric motors.
Jacquez told me there has been “years of work, including by the first Trump administration, that has pointed to this exact case as the worst-case scenario that could happen in an escalation with China.” It stands to reason, then, that experienced policymakers in the Trump administration might have been mindful of forestalling this when developing their tariff plan. But apparently not.
“The lines of attack here are numerous,” Jacquez said. “The fact that the National Economic Council and others are apparently just thinking about this for the first time is pretty shocking.”
And that’s not the only thing the Trump administration is doing that could hamper American access to rare earths and critical minerals.
Though China still effectively controls the global pipeline for most critical minerals (a broader category that includes rare earths as well as more commonly known metals and minerals such as lithium and cobalt), the U.S. has been at work for at least the past five years developing its own domestic supply chain. Much of that work has fallen to the Department of Energy, whose Loan Programs Office has funded mining and processing facilities, and whose Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains hasfunded and overseen demonstration projects for rare earths and critical minerals mining and refining.
The LPO is in line for dramatic cuts, as Heatmap has reported. So, too, are other departments working on rare earths, including the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains. In its zeal to slash the federal government, the Trump administration may have to start from scratch in its efforts to build up a rare earths supply chain.
The Department of Energy did not reply to a request for comment.
This vulnerability to China has been well known in Washington for years, including by the first Trump administration.
“Our dependence on one country, the People's Republic of China (China), for multiple critical minerals is particularly concerning,” then-President Trump said in a 2020 executive order declaring a “national emergency” to deal with “our Nation's undue reliance on critical minerals.” At around the same time, the Loan Programs Office issued guidance “stating a preference for projects related to critical mineral” for applicants for the office’s funding, noting that “80 percent of its rare earth elements directly from China.” Using the Defense Production Act, the Trump administration also issued a grant to the company operating America's sole rare earth mine, MP Materials, to help fund a processing facility at the site of its California mine.
The Biden administration’s work on rare earths and critical minerals was almost entirely consistent with its predecessor’s, just at a greater scale and more focused on energy. About a month after taking office, President Bidenissued an executive order calling for, among other things, a Defense Department report “identifying risks in the supply chain for critical minerals and other identified strategic materials, including rare earth elements.”
Then as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the Biden administration increased funding for LPO, which supported a number of critical minerals projects. It also funneled more money into MP Materials — including a $35 million contract from the Department of Defense in 2022 for the California project. In 2024, it awarded the company a competitive tax credit worth $58.5 million to help finance construction of its neodymium-iron-boron magnet factory in Texas. That facilitybegan commercial operation earlier this year.
The finished magnets will be bought by General Motors for its electric vehicles. But even operating at full capacity, it won’t be able to do much to replace China’s production. The MP Metals facility is projected to produce 1,000 tons of the magnets per year.China produced 138,000 tons of NdFeB magnets in 2018.
The Trump administration is not averse to direct financial support for mining and minerals projects, but they seem to want to do it a different way. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has proposed using a sovereign wealth fund to invest in critical mineral mines. There is one big problem with that plan, however: the U.S. doesn’t have one (for the moment, at least).
“LPO can invest in mining projects now,” Jacquez told me. “Cutting 60% of their staff and the experts who work on this is not going to give certainty to the business community if they’re looking to invest in a mine that needs some government backstop.”
And while the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act remains very much in doubt, the subsidies it provided for electric vehicles, solar, and wind, along with domestic content requirements have been a major source of demand for critical minerals mining and refining projects in the United States.
“It’s not something we’re going to solve overnight,” Jacquez said. “But in the midst of a maximalist trade with China, it is something we will have to deal with on an overnight basis, unless and until there’s some kind of de-escalation or agreement.”
A conversation with VDE Americas CEO Brian Grenko.
This week’s Q&A is about hail. Last week, we explained how and why hail storm damage in Texas may have helped galvanize opposition to renewable energy there. So I decided to reach out to Brian Grenko, CEO of renewables engineering advisory firm VDE Americas, to talk about how developers can make sure their projects are not only resistant to hail but also prevent that sort of pushback.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Hiya Brian. So why’d you get into the hail issue?
Obviously solar panels are made with glass that can allow the sunlight to come through. People have to remember that when you install a project, you’re financing it for 35 to 40 years. While the odds of you getting significant hail in California or Arizona are low, it happens a lot throughout the country. And if you think about some of these large projects, they may be in the middle of nowhere, but they are taking hundreds if not thousands of acres of land in some cases. So the chances of them encountering large hail over that lifespan is pretty significant.
We partnered with one of the country’s foremost experts on hail and developed a really interesting technology that can digest radar data and tell folks if they’re developing a project what the [likelihood] will be if there’s significant hail.
Solar panels can withstand one-inch hail – a golfball size – but once you get over two inches, that’s when hail starts breaking solar panels. So it’s important to understand, first and foremost, if you’re developing a project, you need to know the frequency of those events. Once you know that, you need to start thinking about how to design a system to mitigate that risk.
The government agencies that look over land use, how do they handle this particular issue? Are there regulations in place to deal with hail risk?
The regulatory aspects still to consider are about land use. There are authorities with jurisdiction at the federal, state, and local level. Usually, it starts with the local level and with a use permit – a conditional use permit. The developer goes in front of the township or the city or the county, whoever has jurisdiction of wherever the property is going to go. That’s where it gets political.
To answer your question about hail, I don’t know if any of the [authority having jurisdictions] really care about hail. There are folks out there that don’t like solar because it’s an eyesore. I respect that – I don’t agree with that, per se, but I understand and appreciate it. There’s folks with an agenda that just don’t want solar.
So okay, how can developers approach hail risk in a way that makes communities more comfortable?
The bad news is that solar panels use a lot of glass. They take up a lot of land. If you have hail dropping from the sky, that’s a risk.
The good news is that you can design a system to be resilient to that. Even in places like Texas, where you get large hail, preparing can mean the difference between a project that is destroyed and a project that isn’t. We did a case study about a project in the East Texas area called Fighting Jays that had catastrophic damage. We’re very familiar with the area, we work with a lot of clients, and we found three other projects within a five-mile radius that all had minimal damage. That simple decision [to be ready for when storms hit] can make the complete difference.
And more of the week’s big fights around renewable energy.
1. Long Island, New York – We saw the face of the resistance to the war on renewable energy in the Big Apple this week, as protestors rallied in support of offshore wind for a change.
2. Elsewhere on Long Island – The city of Glen Cove is on the verge of being the next New York City-area community with a battery storage ban, discussing this week whether to ban BESS for at least one year amid fire fears.
3. Garrett County, Maryland – Fight readers tell me they’d like to hear a piece of good news for once, so here’s this: A 300-megawatt solar project proposed by REV Solar in rural Maryland appears to be moving forward without a hitch.
4. Stark County, Ohio – The Ohio Public Siting Board rejected Samsung C&T’s Stark Solar project, citing “consistent opposition to the project from each of the local government entities and their impacted constituents.”
5. Ingham County, Michigan – GOP lawmakers in the Michigan State Capitol are advancing legislation to undo the state’s permitting primacy law, which allows developers to evade municipalities that deny projects on unreasonable grounds. It’s unlikely the legislation will become law.
6. Churchill County, Nevada – Commissioners have upheld the special use permit for the Redwood Materials battery storage project we told you about last week.