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On holding Big Oil to account, SAF subsidies, and Tornado Alley

Current conditions: Severe thunderstorms are slamming Houston • Earth could experience another solar storm this weekend • It’s about 78 degrees Fahrenheit and partly cloudy in New York City, where former President Donald Trump has been found guilty on 34 felony counts.
Vermont has become the first state to pass a law holding big fossil fuel companies financially responsible for climate change damages caused by the emissions from their products. The state’s Republican governor, Phil Scott, neither signed nor vetoed bill S.259, aka the “Climate Superfund Act,” therefore allowing it to become law. In a rather terse note to Senate Secretary John Bloomer about the move, Scott warned of a lack of state funds to take on Big Oil, but said he understands “the desire to seek funding to mitigate the effects of climate change that has hurt our state.”
As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo previously reported, the bill will kick off a multiyear process that, in the most optimistic case, could bring money into the state by 2028. The first step is for the state Treasurer to assess the cost to Vermont, specifically, of emissions from the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels from 1995 to 2024, globally. Regulators will then request compensation from responsible parties in proportion to the emissions each company contributed. The state will identify responsible parties by focusing only on the biggest emitters, companies whose products generated at least a billion tons of emissions during that time. The money will go toward implementing a state “resilience and implementation strategy” to be mapped out in the next two years.
New analysis from Reuters suggests almost no U.S. ethanol will be eligible for President Biden’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) subsidies, because very few corn farmers currently use all three of the “climate smart agriculture” practices outlined by the Treasury Department and IRS. The administration’s guidance, finalized at the end of April, said that SAF refiners would be eligible for a credit of $1.25 per gallon if their fuel reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to traditional jet fuel, and up to $1.75 per gallon if emissions cuts go beyond 50%. But corn producers will only be eligible if they use cover cropping, avoid tilling, and use efficient fertilizer application to keep carbon in the soil. “I have not had a single ethanol producer member contact me and say, we’re going to meet the climate-smart agriculture requirements,” Brian Jennings, CEO of the lobby group American Coalition for Ethanol, told Reuters. A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the rule will encourage farmers to adopt these practices. Biden once said that farmers would provide 95% of SAF.
Last night Jeep officially introduced its first North American electric vehicle, the Wagoneer S. The 600-horsepower vehicle has over 300 miles of range, can go from 0 to 60 mph in 3.4 seconds, and can charge from 20% to 80% in 23 minutes using a DC fast charger. The vehicle will “test the appetite of Jeep customers for a fully electric model,” wrote Peter Valdes-Dapena at CNN. The Wagoneer S will cost about $72,000 and go on sale in the U.S. and Canada this fall, before hitting markets worldwide. Take a look:


At least 29 people have reportedly died in India due to the extreme heat wave baking the country. Local media outlets said 10 people died of heat stroke in the eastern state of Odisha and 19 were killed in Bihar. One weather station in the capital New Delhi recorded 127.22 degrees Fahrenheit on Wednesday. That reading may have been faulty, officials said, but the mercury will hover around 110 degrees for at least another week and electricity demand is soaring as people crank up their air conditioners. Making matters worse, the city is experiencing a water shortage, with reports of desperate residents chasing after water tankers. A heat wave has gripped much of South Asia since April, and researchers say human-caused climate change is making the heat wave about 30 times more likely.
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A new analysis of research recently published by the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology finds that between 1951 and 2020, tornadoes have trended both eastward and “away from the warm season, especially the summer, and toward the cold season.” This means more tornadoes are forming outside Tornado Alley and in densely populated southeastern and midwestern states. “We truly aren’t in Kansas anymore,” quipped Heatmap’s Jeva Lange. The analysis indicates that, between 1951 and 2020, the frequency of winter tornadoes has increased by a staggering 102%. This shift could potentially increase the destruction and disruption of tornadoes that catch people off guard over the holidays or simply unawares. The authors offered a bit of real estate advice: avoid Jackson, Mississippi, which saw one of the greatest increases in tornadoes of any city in the United States, and exhale if you’ve recently purchased property in Cleburne, Texas, which saw one of the greatest decreases.
A large new study published in the journal Science finds that existing oil and gas projects are sufficient to meet global energy demand through 2050, and urges governments to stop issuing permits for new fossil fuel exploration.
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Current conditions: Snow is returning to the Upper Midwest, with as much as a foot set to dump on Duluth, Minnesota • Crater Lake National Park in Oregon just registered the lowest snow water equivalent ever recorded for this time of year • Pago Pago, the capital of American Samoa and the United States’ southernmost city, is weathering days of intense thunderstorms.
Big news from over here at Heatmap: Today, in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and CleanEcon, we launched the Electricity Price Hub, a new public data platform that provides monthly, utility-level estimates of residential electricity rates and bills across the United States going back to 2021, broken down by generation, transmission, and distribution costs.
To kick off the new feature, we have:

Total residential electricity costs as a fraction of personal expenditure came out to 1.25%, according to new data from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. That would be near an all-time low, but slightly above 2024 levels. Total residential electricity costs as a fraction of total income was also near an all-time low, at 1%. Once again, that metric was also flat in recent years with a slight increase in 2025.
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Last week, Slovenia became the first European Union nation to introduce fuel rationing amid the energy shock from the Iran War. Now the European Commission has begun urging Europeans to work from home and drive and fly less. Brussels’ top governing body also pressed countries across the bloc to speed up construction of renewables. “Even if … peace is here tomorrow, still we will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future,” Dan Jorgensen, the EU’s energy chief, said in a speech to the energy ministers from all 27 nations, according to Politico.
On Tuesday, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum assembled the so-called “God Squad,” a rarely-used committee with the authority to waive Endangered Species Act protections under exceptional circumstances. In this case, Burgum gathered the panel to exempt federally-permitted oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from the landmark conservation law on national security grounds. The move came in response to a request from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. “It took the Trump administration 15 minutes to wipe our crucial environmental safeguards in the Gulf of Mexico,” Jimmy Tobias and Chris D’Angelo wrote in the conservation newsletter Public Domain yesterday. “It took them 15 minutes to condemn an endangered animal to possible extinction. It took them 15 minutes to play God.”
The Trump administration has previously given credence to species conservation arguments against wind energy, both onshore and off. As my colleague Jael Holzman has covered, the administration has used laws protecting eagles to extract information and fines from wind farms, and has appeared to follow a playbook laid out by anti-offshore wind activist groups that includes leveraging marine species protections to block development.
General Motors has once again idled production at its Factory Zero electric vehicle plant in Detroit as demand wanes. The move comes less than three months after a mass layoff and reduction to a single shift, Automotive News reported. The facility was part of a $2.2 billion investment in 2021 to manufacture the GMC Hummer EV and Sierra EV, the Chevrolet Silverado EV, and the Cadillac Escalade IQ electric SUV. The latest temporary layoff impacts 1,300 workers, who were told to stay home starting March 16 and return to work on April 13, the United Auto Workers told InsideEVs.
Just a few years ago, you’d be mistaken for thinking this was an April Fool’s Day joke: New England is going atomic. The governors of all six states signed onto a statement Tuesday outlining steps for what they said is to “strengthen the region’s energy reliability, affordability, and long-term supply” of electricity. “New England has a long tradition of collaborating on regional energy matters. As governors, we are committed to safeguarding our collective energy future through advancement of a diverse energy strategy that includes nuclear power, a pillar of New England’s electric system,” the governors of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont wrote.
Introducing the Electricity Price Hub, a partnership between Heatmap News and MIT in collaboration with CleanEcon designed to bring much-needed clarity to the conversation around energy affordability.
As the energy shock generated by the Iran War ripples through the global economy, gas prices are front of mind for many Americans. They are the most visible energy prices in our lives — posted on billboards along the highway and in towns and cities across the country, updated on a day-to-day, even hour-to-hour, basis.
Electricity prices, by contrast, are far less transparent. Even as prices rise across the country, it is difficult for households and businesses to see, let alone understand the price they are paying for electricity and what is behind it.
In nominal terms, electricity rates are up by an average of 33% over the past five years nationwide, adding $35 on average to household bills every month, or $420 per year. Prices in 32 states grew by more than 25% in that time, with six states experiencing increases of over 50%. As electricity prices increase, what was once a relatively stable line item in many Americans’ budgets is now more volatile, compounding broader cost of living pressures.
As the stakes rise for American consumers, the lack of transparency also makes effective policymaking more difficult: Regulators and politicians are making high-stakes decisions about reliability, affordability, and future investment with, at best, partial information.
That is why Heatmap and MIT are launching the Electricity Price Hub, a new public data platform built to address this information gap. The hub provides month-to-month estimates of residential electricity prices and bills for utilities across the United States, from 2020 to the present. For the largest utilities, these estimates are broken down into their core components. By making this data available down to the zip code level, the hub empowers users to understand what they are paying and see how that compares to neighboring communities and states.
That clarity is urgently needed. More than half of Americans say that power bills are causing at least “a decent amount” of stress on their budgets, according to a Heatmap Pro poll from last fall. Electricity prices have already emerged as a political issue in states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Georgia — and are likely to keep rising in voters’ minds.
Last year utilities asked state regulators to approve more than $28 billion in rate increases, according to the research and advocacy group PowerLines. Many of these rate increases won’t take effect for months or even years to come, meaning that some amount of price increase is baked in regardless of how the policy and technology environment changes.
But electricity prices are not the only problem. If the cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity is analogous to the number projected on the neon sign at the gas station, the total monthly cost of electricity use is what you see at the bottom of your receipt when you fill up. As anyone who has ever driven a gas car knows, the ultimate expense is a function of both the size of your tank and how fuel-efficient your car is.
Even where electricity prices appear moderate, electricity bills can be high. Alabama Power, for example, has prices that are just $0.05 above (or 1.3x) the national average. But its average residential bills are among the nation’s highest, at nearly $100 over the national average. (Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo has more on how trends in prices and bills can diverge.)
In many areas, it’s not just that bills are rising. Sharp swings in bills are especially difficult for households to manage. The median difference between the highest and lowest bills in 2025 was $92 (a 91% difference). Zooming in on a subset of utilities with the greatest bill volatility, peak-to-trough bill differences often exceed $200, with percentage swings of 200% to 280%. Two utilities in New Jersey, for example, saw average residential bills increase by more than $275 between spring and peak summer months.
Why have electricity prices remained so deeply opaque? In part, this is a function of the byzantine structures that govern our electricity system. We have three major grids, seven regional transmission authorities, 51 state-level regulators, more than 800 rural co-operatives, and roughly 3,000 utilities.
The result is a data environment that is fragmented and inconsistent, and lags well behind real-time price changes:
In the absence of reliable data, simplified narratives fill the void, allowing anyone to pick their chosen villain — be it renewables, data centers, transmission lines, or environmental policies — to blame for system failures. Policymakers risk adopting blunt measures that provide limited and temporary relief but that fail to address critical underlying issues, including the investments required to protect the grid’s long-term reliability and affordability.
Addressing these challenges starts with more timely and detailed data. That is what the Electricity Price Hub is all about. The platform delivers timely data for utilities serving the vast majority of residential customers in each state, with standard estimates that are comparable across states with different regulatory systems and across utilities with different rate structures.
It provides monthly, up-to-date estimates of both electricity prices and bills for a typical residential customer, offering a clearer view of the real cost burden households face and how that burden varies across places and over time. These estimates are more current than any existing public data sources.
We construct these estimates by combining detailed price and price component data for the largest utilities, sourced from state filings and utility rate books. We complement that with data for a wider set of utilities from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to generate standardized, current estimates of monthly average prices and bills.
We also disaggregate electricity prices into their core components: generation, the cost of producing electricity; transmission, the cost of moving power over long distances; distribution, the cost of getting electricity “the last mile” to homes and businesses; and other, a grab bag of regulatory and system-level charges. (You can find more on our methodology here.)
By standardizing and updating this information on a monthly basis, the platform is designed to inform consumers and businesses, and equip federal and state policymakers, regulators, and researchers with the information needed to design targeted, evidence-based responses.
You can now explore this tool for yourself, but here’s what we’ve already learned: There isn’t one cause of rising electricity costs. Prices are rising for different reasons in different places. There is no single national explanation for surging power prices.
Take our data on Maine. The state has long had some of the country’s most expensive electricity prices, and in recent years, distribution-related charges have been rising steadily. The utility Versant Power, for example, has seen distribution charges more than double over the last five years. The rising costs of maintaining and repairing aging distribution infrastructure, made worse by the increasing equipment and construction costs, are behind that trend.
In other parts of the country, extreme weather is driving higher distribution costs. While wildfire-related costs in California currently offer the most extreme example, storm costs are showing up in rising bills across the country. In Florida, for example, Tampa Electric customers have seen storm-related charges rise steadily, increasing from a credit in 2020 to more than $0.027 per kilowatt-hour in 2025.
Elsewhere, other factors are at play. In parts of the Mid-Atlantic, persistent bottlenecks in adding new capacity to the grid — as well as surging power demand, driven primarily by data centers — are causing generation costs to get bid up. In New Jersey, for example, the utility Atlantic City Electric Co’s generation-related charges have increased by more than 50% year on year.
You can already find other stories from the Electricity Price Hub from Heatmap reporters across the site. In some states, for instance, “other” charges are driving up power bills. We also look in detail at what’s going on with prices in PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest grid.
We hope this hub is only the beginning of a new era in open electricity data. If we want a modern electricity system that can deliver affordability, reliability, decarbonization, and economic growth, we will need a modern, up-to-date, and localized data infrastructure to match.
Rob announces the Electricity Price Hub, a new project from Heatmap News and MIT, alongside guests Brian Deese and Lauren Sidner.
Electricity prices rose faster than overall inflation last year. Yet at the local level, it’s been difficult to know why. Is it data centers? Renewables? Aging infrastructure? Or something else more mysterious? Everyone in the political system — including senior Trump officials — wants to blame their favorite energy bugbear. But if we actually want to fix the problem, getting the real answer matters.
Now, Heatmap and MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research are teaming up to answer this critical question. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob announces the launch of the Electricity Price Hub, a new public data platform that provides monthly, utility-level estimates of residential electricity rates and bills across the United States going back to 2021, broken down by generation, transmission, and distribution costs.
Joining Rob to discuss the tool are Brian Deese, an MIT Institute Innovation Fellow and the former director of the White House National Economic Council under President Biden, and Lauren Sidner, a senior advisor at MIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy who previously served as a senior advisor to U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from their conversation:
Brian Deese: Bills matter in an absolute sense, but rates do matter in a relative sense, because people’s lived experience is also not just about ... It’s why inflation has the unsettling economic effect that it has, which is that as prices go up, even if they’re off a lower base — your point about Manhattan is a good one, which is it’s a good example of sort of high rates, low bills. But if the rate of increase of the bill is going up, then it also means that people are going to feel this more.
Robinson Meyer: And it’s complicated because from a utility revenue perspective, the bill is also what matters. And if you think about from a systems perspective, the utility is trying to recoup the costs of running its system and then make a profit. The volumetric rate is a technical mechanism it uses to like allot the costs of running its system, but actually, the size of the revenue that it receives from each household matters far more in terms of its ability to turn a profit, to cover its cost, to invest further in the system. That is the number that matters in terms of actual upkeep for the system — although I still find it requires a bit of a brain reformatting to remember that’s actually how the entire power grid works.
Deese: It’s why it has been so difficult for us to figure out how to credit efficiency within our system. Because in an overly crude way, if the bill matters, then the utility actually wants to avoid incremental efficiency, which is not true in practice. But the mechanism to actually credit efficiency, whether that efficiency is actually at the household level or is efficiency of the system, efficiency of the grid, capacity and storage — all of those things run into this basic challenge, which is, if you make the system more efficient, the utility often doesn’t get paid for it.
Meyer: This is one of the classic problems that I think we’re now struggling with in terms of governing utilities. I mean, when you looked at individual states or individual political jurisdictions, were there any that stood out where you were like, man, you can really see in this state the difficulty of utility governance or the difficulty of incentivizing utilities or customers to be more efficient in their energy use?
Lauren Sidner: A good number of states have adopted mechanisms that try to do away with the sort of internal disincentive to support efficiency. So very frequently, you’ll see charges that allow utilities to recover the costs of efficiency programs. But you will also, in maybe a more limited number of examples, see charges that allow utilities to recover the revenue that they lose because of those programs, or because of distributed energy or other policy-related aims that may be in place. I believe Arizona has that kind of recovery mechanism, but it’s not uncommon.
And then occasionally in states like California, you’ll see charges that will give a benefit to a customer for using less power. So it’ll be a tiered charge where if the customer kind of stays within the lower tier, they can actually get sort of a bill credit or something along those lines. So they sometimes even build it into the rate design in addition to just making sure the utility is made whole for supporting that kind of investment.
You can find a full transcript of the episode here.
Mentioned:
What Americans Really Pay For Electricity, by Brian Deese and Robinson Meyer
Factors Influencing Recent Trends in Retail Electricity Prices in the United States
Rob’s piece on power prices from last year: How Electricity Got to Be So Expensive
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.