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A social scientist explains how people react to disasters like what’s unfolding on the East Coast.
How do people respond to wildfire smoke? This has become an increasingly pressing question for social scientists, with massive wildfires in California in recent years and much of the East Coast this week engulfed in smoke from fires in Canada.
To better understand the issue, I called up social scientist Francisca Santana, who will be take up a role as an assistant professor of environmental and forest sciences at the University of Washington this fall. She studies how people respond and adapt to extreme weather and environmental change, including wildfires. Part of that research was a paper written with David J.X. Gonzalez and Gabrielle Wong-Parodi based on interviews with people in Northern California who were exposed to large fires from 2018 to 2020.
While New York City was engulfed by smoke on Wednesday, I asked Santana about how people gather information about wildfires, how the torrent of digital data affects how people respond, and how masking evolved from a wildfire response to a COVID-19 response. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity and readability.
My research has mostly focused on folks in the West in California. In the early days of catastrophic wildfires, there weren’t a lot of formal sources of information. We observed that people were really relying on one another, relying on their social contacts, their friends and family to kind of process this risk and understand what to do next.
In recent years, there are now more and more resources out there: more reporting in the media and more official sources from the states and EPA. It gives people guidance on how to behave, how to protect themselves from wildfire smoke.
It’s probably a mix of both using those sources that provide an Air Quality Index, or AQI, and using those social contexts to then translate, “Okay, well, what does that really mean for my life? The AQi is over 150. I’m noticing a lot of people in my neighborhood aren't going out for runs. So maybe I won’t do that either.”
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There’s a pre-COVID and post-COVID story. Before COVID, wildfires and wildfire smoke were quite severe in some places in the West. We observed and talked to folks who were using masks, sometimes N95 masks, to protect their lungs from wildfire smoke.
After the outbreak of the pandemic, some people found the transition to wearing a mask during COVID quite easy, because they had already been wearing them for wildfires. As wildfire smoke continues to be an issue, they may continue to mask. It’s sort of like getting into the habit or having the resources to wear a mask and feeling comfortable with that behavior.
Whereas I think for other folks there is a little bit of a backlash. Wearing masks during COVID was an experience that some people were very ready to stop doing. There may be a little bit of resistance to wearing a mask for wildfire smoke.
[Wildfire smoke] is very disruptive to one’s daily life and routine, especially if a person has habits related to going outside: going on walks, recreating in certain ways. And that can, over time, have a really negative toll on a person’s ability to cope with stress. It removes that regular outlet. A lot of folks have to exercise and socialize with friends and family.
A lot of folks talked about cabin fever, being isolated and cooped up. And that for some time really did overlap and intersect with the pandemic and the inability that folks had to socialize indoors. If they were, you know, abiding by social distancing maybe they weren’t getting together with friends and family in their homes and then wildfire smoke created a situation where they were unable to do that outdoors.
I would say it has that effect on one’s daily life and ability to cope. And I would say there’s also a component that I’ve observed with some folks who have also lived in areas where there are frequent wildfires. So if you live in a wildfire risky area and also have been exposed to smoke, smoke can trigger memories of a fire being nearby.
The smoke can really interfere with one’s ability to cope. It really adds that extra stressor into into your day. There’s a set of concerns and worries that you have to make decisions about that are often very precise. I’ve observed a lot of people will check the air quality multiple times a day. The idea is that they’re trying to decide exactly what moments they can go outside and do the thing they’ve been waiting to do. That kind of hyper vigilance is another layer of stress.
The upsides are pretty major. If someone in your neighborhood has an outdoor air quality monitor, a Purple air monitor, you can have a very real time sense of exactly what the air quality is in your neighborhood. A lot of folks use that to determine what time they may walk their dogs, for example. I think that’s really good, because there can be pretty dramatic shifts throughout the day based on wind and the patterns of the smoke moving. So that’s a huge upside.
Also people use that information to find places to go to “escape the smoke.” If you look at the whole map of California, you might see, “oh, there’s an area by the coast that is not inundated with smoke.” So that could be a good place to go for the afternoon on a Saturday. I think that really provides an outlet for folks who might be feeling very trapped by the smoke, and who also have real health concerns related to asthma and respiratory issues looking for a place to temporarily evacuate to.
But if you’re in a place that’s inundated with smoke, and there really aren’t many changes that are substantial, it can be a really consuming and distracting to check constantly for changes in the smoke and air quality. I certainly have heard people talk about that. When the smoke becomes bad enough checking the air quality is something they’re compelled to do every five, 10, 15 minutes. It can really affect your productivity.
I won’t speculate beyond that in terms of the psychological effects. But I think it’s akin to the other way that our phones have us hooked. I think that real-time data can give you a sense of control that isn’t really there.
I would say that that’s a finding that has repeatedly popped up across a lot of my interview-based studies. People are using a combination of information from official sources, and then also observations from their social group. And also direction from their social group. There are sometimes individuals and communities that can distribute information and they make suggestions to their friends and family and they can really encourage certain types of behavior. And I think there are other individuals who may resist that based on all sorts of things.
How do responses change over time when people are repeatedly exposed to wildfires? Are they able to accumulate expertise and habits and resources that then make it much easier for them to protect themselves? Or is repeated exposure something that people maladapt to? They might have a response when it first happens and then perceive the threat to be less over time, because it can interfere so much with daily life. That can sometimes happen with folks. They just want to move on.
I’m really interested also in how responses to wildfire smoke exposure might interact with some of the other things that happened during fire seasons. In places like California and the West, for example, there have been power shut offs.
Often the communities that are most affected by those power shut-offs are communities that are simultaneously being affected by smoke, and maybe heat. How do people manage those threats when they happen all at once? If your power is off, how does that affect how you’re able to respond to smoke if you were relying on your air conditioner or air filter? What other sorts of adaptations might people choose to make when faced with those threats, and that could include moving from the area permanently.
I’m not not a biomedical scientist. I’m not a medical researcher. But part of being a social scientist is reading some of the latest science on the health impacts of wildfire smoke, and it’s scary. It’s potentially really dangerous. It’s dangerous for children and for folks with respiratory health issues, but it really is dangerous for everyone.
The science is still evolving but it definitely made me think more about having air filters in my home. I have multiple air filters. It definitely made me think about ensuring that my parents and my other family members also understand the risk and have air filters in their home.
It definitely spurred more diligence during these sorts of events and a responsibility that I feel to make sure that folks understand that the risks are real. And that if we’re going to live in a future where there will likely continue to be fires and smoke, it’s worth it, if you’re able, to invest in some of these more comprehensive strategies like having an air filter in your home. I definitely think I’m more motivated and more aware.
Read more about the wildfire smoke engulfing the eastern United States:
The Smoke Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
The East Coast’s Wildfire Smoke Is On Par With the West’s Worst Days
How to Prepare for Wildfire Smoke, According to Doctors at Harvard
Wildfire Smoke Is a Wheezy Throwback for New York City
The East Coast Has Been Smokier Than the West Coast This Year
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PJM is projecting nearly 50% demand growth through the end of the 2030s.
The nation’s largest electricity market expects to be delivering a lot more power through the end of the next decade — even more than it expected last year.
PJM Interconnection, which covers some or all of 13 states (and Washington, D.C.) between Maryland and Illinois, released its latest long-term forecast last week, projecting that its summer peak demand would climb by almost half, from 155,000 megawatts in 2025 to around 230,000 in 2039.
The electricity market attributed the increased demand to “the proliferation of data centers, electrification of buildings and vehicles, and manufacturing,” and noted (not for the first time) that the demand surge comes at the same time many fossil fuel power plants are scheduled to close, especially coal plants. Already, some natural gas and even some coal plants in PJM andelsewhere that were scheduled to close have seen their retirement dates pushed out in order to handle forecast electricity demand.
This is just the latest eye-popping projection of forthcoming electricity demand from PJM and others — last year, PJM forecast summer peak demand of about 180,000 megawatts in 2035, a figure that jumped to around 220,000 megawatts in this year’s forecast.
While summer is typically when grids are most taxed due to heavy demand from air conditioning, as more of daily life gets electrified — especially home heating — winter demand is forecast to rise, too. PJM forecast that its winter peak demand would go from 139,000 megawatts in 2025, or 88% of the summer peak, to 210,000 megawatts in 2039, or 95% of its summer peak demand forecast for that year.
Systems are designed to accommodate their peak, but winter poses special challenges for grids. Namely, the electric grid can freeze, with natural gas plants and pipelines posing a special risk in cold weather — not to mention that it’s typically not a great time for solar production, either.
Aftab Khan, PJM’s executive vice president for operations, planning, and security, said in a statement Thursday that much of the recent demand increase was due to data centers growing “exponentially” in PJM’s territory.
The disparity between future demand and foreseeable available supply in the short term has already led to a colossal increase in “capacity” payments within PJM, where generators are paid to guarantee they’ll be able to deliver power in a crunch. These payments tend to favor coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants, which can produce power (hopefully) in all weather conditions whenever it’s needed, in a way that variable energy generation such as wind and solar — even when backed up by batteries — cannot as yet.
Prices at the latest capacity auction were high enough to induce Calpine, the independent power company that operates dozens of natural gas power plants and recently announced a merger with Constellation, the owner of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, to say it would look at building new power plants in the territory.
The expected relentless increase in power demand, power capacity, and presumably, profits for power companies, was thrown into doubt, however, when the Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek released a large language model that appears to require far less power than state of the art models developed by American companies such as OpenAI. While the biggest stock market victim has been the chip designer Nvidia, which has shed hundreds of billions of dollars of market capitalization this week, a number of power companies including Constellation and Vistra are down around 10%, after being some of the best stock market performers in 2024.
A conversation with Carl Fleming of McDermott Will & Emory
This week we’re talking to Carl Fleming, a renewables attorney with McDermott Will & Emory who was an advisor to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo under the Biden administration. We chatted the morning after the Trump administration attempted to freeze large swathes of federal spending. My goal? To understand whether this chaos and uncertainty was trickling down into the transition as we spoke. But Fleming had a sober perspective and an important piece of wisdom: stay calm and remain on course.
The following conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
How are you seeing the private sector respond to all of this news?
My view is, you can read a lot into what people publish in the EOs and what’s written and what’s issued and you can sometimes read a good deal into what hasn’t been issued and what hasn’t been said. In the executive orders that got first issued in a flurry we saw a few that got pointed directly at onshore wind, some on offshore wind, but solar and standalone storage – as predicted – remained pretty much intact.
We were under the impression and we stood by it that we had the guidance in hand, bankable guidance, from the IRS prior to the change in administration and prior to any look-back window that people had been transacting on over the past year at kind of a record pace. Standalone storage has just had a breakout year. Solar continues to go, to continue to be put on the grid. And we also have manufacturing of solar panels, the domestic supply chain. This year we stood up is nowhere near what we need to fulfill our requirements to get everything we need to do domestically to fill our generation requirements [but] its a pretty great step in the right direction. And those credits have been pretty good to the economy and Republican states.
The way I’ve seen people react is, I’ve probably been busier than ever the past two weeks, not only fielding questions like that but also for tax credit transfers, all of the corporates we work with. We work in both the buy and the sell side of all these credit transfers. We’re working with a lot of solar module manufacturers to sell the credits under the IRA. We’re working with a lot of buyers to purchase those credits. And we’re working with the buyers and sellers under the generation of these projects.
All of the buyers have come out and continued with their 2025 strategy to buy more of these credits, if not more so. And all of the developers we represent continue to produce more of these credits. So I haven’t seen a hiccup or slowdown in actual transactions. If anything, I’ve seen stuff pick up in the solar space and in the manufacturing space. I continue to be very optimistic about those two fundamental parts of the energy transition, because if you need to go be an energy superpower, you wouldn’t want to turn off solar, turn off storage –
Is that argument that if you were trying to deal with “energy security,” you wouldn’t turn off solar and storage – is that enough to assuage uncertainty in the investor space?
I think it’s helpful. If you’re a private equity investor or you’re any sort of lender or a developer, you’re probably not going to base your whole model on the hopes that our energy security strategy syncs up with what most people think it should look like. But when you layer it on top of some of the fundamentals… I want to say that solar did not go away eight years ago. When Trump first came in, we saw more renewables deployed in his administration. At times, we saw more beneficial guidance, issuance of tax guidance under that administration, than we would hope for from some more favorable administrations.
The fact that the IRA has disproportionately benefited red states is just a fact that can’t be overlooked. I met with a group of about two dozen lawmakers a few weeks ago to talk about the IRA and there’s quite a few of those folks in the room that say, “Whatever we do, we can’t dismantle the IRA.”
But how has the chaos in the last week and a half impacted investment in renewable energy, though?
I think the renewable energy industry is used to a lack of predictability. It’s kind of a lawyer’s job, our team’s job, to help folks mitigate risk [and] to see what potential pitfalls there may be and to structure and draft around those.
You might see as things get more unpredictable, as folks go out to investors to raise capital, you might see a little bit of tightening around different portfolios or different types of companies based on their pipelines or how they’re put together. But I think one investor’s look on a project or pipeline may vary widely from another investor who’s got a different project or pipeline. There’s a lot of capital out there to be deployed. I think people are looking to invest.
I think you just need to partner the right developers with the right investors.
Are you seeing any slowdown in solar investment though?
I don’t see folks taking a hardline approach or stopping any time soon.
This is not an existential crisis while the ITC [investment tax credit] and PTC [production tax credit] exist. It’s not even, could you go back in time to unwind these credits. It’s moreso, going forward, what will the IRA look like? Will there be additional technologies added to the IRA? That’s possible to help stand up other technologies. Will the runway for the credit, instead of it being unlimited for at least 10 years, will [it] be pared back a bit? There’s potential, but it’s unlikely.
Okay last question and it’s a fun one: what was the last song you listened to?
I’m not going to lie, I’m an Eagles fan. And I’m from Philly and a huge Meek Mill fan. So “Uptown Vibes” by Meek Mill is in the car.
1. Freeze, don’t move – The Trump administration this week attempted to freeze essentially all discretionary grant programs in the federal government. A list we obtained showed this would halt major energy programs and somehow also involve targeting work on IRA tax credits.
2. Sorry, California – The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management canceled public meetings on the environmental impact statement for offshore wind lease areas in California, indicating the Trump wind lease pause will also affect pre-approval activities.
3. Idaho we go – Idaho Gov. Brad Little this week signed an executive order dubbed the SPEED Act aimed at expediting all energy projects, including potentially renewables, transmission, and mining projects.