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Nearly one in three Americans woke up to air quality alerts on Wednesday as smoke from the Canadian wildfires billowed across the eastern United States. The choking cloud stretches from Maine to South Carolina and as far east as Minnesota, smothering Boston, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, Chicago, and St. Louis. And with AQIs topping 160, Detroit and New York City had the second and third worst air quality, respectively, of any major cities in the world on Wednesday morning.
Wildfire smoke is dangerous to breathe — so dangerous that New York City is urging at-risk residents to wear N95 or KN95 masks outdoors and public schools across the tri-state area have canceled all outdoor activities. Unfortunately, it’s going to get worse before it gets better. Here is your smokecast for the coming days:
Smoke is expected to continue to linger through the end of the week with the city extending its air quality alert through Friday. More immediately, New Yorkers can expect the haze to worsen on Wednesday afternoon, especially after 2 p.m., and potentially thicken into the night.
\u201cAnother wave of dense wildfire smoke is moving into Pennsylvania and will arrive in #NYC later today. The smoke can easily be seen from space and will cause air quality to worsen: https://t.co/9gYYEKWUaj\u201d— Breaking Weather by AccuWeather (@Breaking Weather by AccuWeather) 1686144065
Air quality is “expected to remain poor” on Thursday since a low-pressure front off the coast of Maine is ushering Canadian smoke into the tri-state area region. The Fox Weather models also show “a lot of smoke for the Northeast all the way through Friday” and Accuweather expects that by Saturday, “winds may send some smoke farther east once again.”
A weekend storm could finally break the chokehold the smoke has over the east: “By Sunday night we should start to see improvement as a new storm system from the west” changes the wind direction, a Fox meteorologist told the New York Post.
\u201cNo relief for NYC & much of the northeast Wednesday. Flow around a low will continue to funnel thick smoke from the Canadian wildfires & blanket the area with extensive haze & terrible air quality. #18StormTracker #nywx #pawx #njwx\u201d— Trackerman \u26a1\ufe0f (@Trackerman \u26a1\ufe0f) 1686142190
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Being closer to the Canadian border, upstate New York has seen some of the most eye-popping AQI readings of the current smoke event:
\u201cSadly the horrific air quality forecasts were right. A \u201chazardous\u201d plume of dense smoke is sliding south across Lake Ontario. Syracuse already AQI of 351 and on the Canadian side of the lake an AQI value of 421!!! The highest I\u2019ve ever seen on the East Coast.\u201d— Bill Karins \ud83d\udca7 (@Bill Karins \ud83d\udca7) 1686146535
The local Minor League Baseball team, the Syracuse Mets, called off a Tuesday night game against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs and postponed a Wednesday day game to the evening in the hopes the air will be clearer later in the day. They may be left waiting. According to Syracuse.com, “The weather pattern should begin to shift Thursday, bringing winds from the west instead of the north and clearing the air in Upstate New York by the weekend.” Rain in the next few days, though, could help alleviate some of the worst pollution.
\u201c\u2757\ufe0f\ud83d\ude37Air Quality Warning for the Upstate this afternoon...\n\nAn enormous plume of smoke from ongoing Canadian wildfires is getting carried by upper-level winds into the Upstate and WNC.\n\nPlease take frequent breaks if you need to be outdoors this afternoon.\u201d— Griffin Hardy WYFF 4 (@Griffin Hardy WYFF 4) 1686146980
The low-pressure system off of Maine will keep smoke funneling toward the tri-state area for a few days yet, but it offers some protection for northeastern New England. Though it was smoky on Wednesday morning, forecasts show that the smoke will start to thin by Wednesday afternoon:
\u201cThis gives a good idea of the main steering current for the smoke plumes...a stuck upper-level low drifting across northern New England\n\nSince the flow around low pressure is counterclockwise in the NH, smoke rotates around it in the same fashion\u201d— Eric Fisher (@Eric Fisher) 1686102537
It’d have been a “gorgeous” day in D.C. if it “weren’t for the smoke,” The Washington Post reported Wednesday morning. A Code Orange air quality alert was in effect — the first since 2016 — with smoke expected to worsen in the Capital Region on Wednesday night.
There is also the potential for a Code Red alert on Thursday, which is issued when smoke conditions are unhealthy for all groups and the AQI is over 150. Potential showers on Friday could help suppress pollutants.
\u201cVisibility is down to 2 MILES in D.C. amid extreme wildfire smoke.\u201d— Matthew Cappucci (@Matthew Cappucci) 1686142679
Relief from the smoke is expected to come for the seaboard states by the end of the week … but only because the weather patterns will push smoke toward their western neighbors. On Thursday and Friday, air quality could become worse in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Detroit, Accuweather reports.
\u201cCANADA WILDFIRE SMOKE CAUSING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY:\n\nWe don\u2019t see air quality this bad in the Cleveland area very often. The smoke will be coming in waves of heavier plumes over the next few days. @cleveland19news\u201d— Kelly Dobeck \u2600\ufe0f (@Kelly Dobeck \u2600\ufe0f) 1686143307
The movement of smoke is famously tricky to predict, but there are
a few different models you can use to keep an eye on your area. Here are the models for the next day from the FireSmoke Canada website, which tracks PM2.5 smoke particles at ground level from wildfires across North America. Check the FireSmoke Canada website or NOAA models for the most up-to-date forecasts and keep in mind that, like forecasting the weather, these are not guarantees. Err on the side of caution and protect yourself.
The model for 2 p.m. on June 7. Darker colors indicate higher PM2.5 levels, the particles associated with wildfire smoke. The numbered circles refer to the number of regional wildfires.FireSmoke Canada
The model for 9 p.m. on June 7.FireSmoke Canada
The model for 9 a.m. on June 8.FireSmoke Canada
The model for 9 p.m. on June 8.FireSmoke Canada
Read more about the wildfire smoke engulfing the eastern United States:
Your Plants Are Going to Be Okay.
Why Are the Canadian Wildfires So Bad This Year?
How to Stay Safe from Wildfire Smoke Indoors
Wildfire Smoke Is a Wheezy Throwback for New York City
Wednesday Was the Worst Day for Wildfire Pollution in U.S. History
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Republicans are taking over some of the most powerful institutions for crafting climate policy on Earth.
When Republicans flipped the Senate, they took the keys to three critical energy and climate-focused committees.
These are among the most powerful institutions for crafting climate policy on Earth. The Senate plays the role of gatekeeper for important legislation, as it requires a supermajority to overcome the filibuster. Hence, it’s both where many promising climate bills from the House go to die, as well as where key administrators such as the heads of the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency are vetted and confirmed.
We’ll have to wait a bit for the Senate’s new committee chairs to be officially confirmed. But Jeff Navin, co-founder at the climate change-focused government affairs firm Boundary Stone Partners, told me that since selections are usually based on seniority, in many cases it’s already clear which Republicans are poised to lead under Trump and which Democrats will assume second-in-command (known as the ranking member). Here’s what we know so far.
This committee has been famously led by Joe Manchin, the former Democrat, now Independent senator from West Virginia, who will retire at the end of this legislative session. Energy and Natural Resources has a history of bipartisan collaboration and was integral in developing many of the key provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act — and could thus play a key role in dismantling them. Overall, the committee oversees the DOE, the Department of the Interior, the U.S. Forest Service, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, so it’s no small deal that its next chairman will likely be Mike Lee, the ultra-conservative Republican from Utah. That’s assuming that the committee's current ranking member, John Barrasso of Wyoming, wins his bid for Republican Senate whip, which seems very likely.
Lee opposes federal ownership of public lands, setting himself up to butt heads with Martin Heinrich, the Democrat from New Mexico and likely the committee’s next ranking member. Lee has also said that solving climate change is simply a matter of having more babies, as “problems of human imagination are not solved by more laws, they’re solved by more humans.” As Navin told me, “We've had this kind of safe space where so-called quiet climate policy could get done in the margins. And it’s not clear that that's going to continue to exist with the new leadership.”
This committee is currently chaired by Democrat Tom Carper of Delaware, who is retiring after this term. Poised to take over is the Republican’s current ranking member, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. She’s been a strong advocate for continued reliance on coal and natural gas power plants, while also carving out areas of bipartisan consensus on issues such as nuclear energy, carbon capture, and infrastructure projects during her tenure on the committee. The job of the Environment and Public Works committee is in the name: It oversees the EPA, writes key pieces of environmental legislation such as the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act, and supervises public infrastructure projects such as highways, bridges, and dams.
Navin told me that many believe the new Democratic ranking member will be Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, although to do so, he would have to step down from his perch at the Senate Budget Committee, where he is currently chair. A tireless advocate of the climate cause, Whitehouse has worked on the Environment and Public Works committee for over 15 years, and lately seems to have had a relatively productive working relationship with Capito.
This subcommittee falls under the broader Senate Appropriations Committee and is responsible for allocating funding for the DOE, various water development projects, and various other agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
California’s Dianne Feinstein used to chair this subcommittee until her death last year, when Democrat Patty Murray of Washington took over. Navin told me that the subcommittee’s next leader will depend on how the game of “musical chairs” in the larger Appropriations Committee shakes out. Depending on their subcommittee preferences, the chair could end up being John Kennedy of Louisiana, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, or Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. It’s likewise hard to say who the top Democrat will be.
Inside a wild race sparked by a solar farm in Knox County, Ohio.
The most important climate election you’ve never heard of? Your local county commissioner.
County commissioners are usually the most powerful governing individuals in a county government. As officials closer to community-level planning than, say a sitting senator, commissioners wind up on the frontlines of grassroots opposition to renewables. And increasingly, property owners that may be personally impacted by solar or wind farms in their backyards are gunning for county commissioner positions on explicitly anti-development platforms.
Take the case of newly-elected Ohio county commissioner – and Christian social media lifestyle influencer – Drenda Keesee.
In March, Keesee beat fellow Republican Thom Collier in a primary to become a GOP nominee for a commissioner seat in Knox County, Ohio. Knox, a ruby red area with very few Democratic voters, is one of the hottest battlegrounds in the war over solar energy on prime farmland and one of the riskiest counties in the country for developers, according to Heatmap Pro’s database. But Collier had expressed openness to allowing new solar to be built on a case-by-case basis, while Keesee ran on a platform focused almost exclusively on blocking solar development. Collier ultimately placed third in the primary, behind Keesee and another anti-solar candidate placing second.
Fighting solar is a personal issue for Keesee (pronounced keh-see, like “messy”). She has aggressively fought Frasier Solar – a 120 megawatt solar project in the country proposed by Open Road Renewables – getting involved in organizing against the project and regularly attending state regulator hearings. Filings she submitted to the Ohio Power Siting Board state she owns a property at least somewhat adjacent to the proposed solar farm. Based on the sheer volume of those filings this is clearly her passion project – alongside preaching and comparing gay people to Hitler.
Yesterday I spoke to Collier who told me the Frasier Solar project motivated Keesee’s candidacy. He remembered first encountering her at a community meeting – “she verbally accosted me” – and that she “decided she’d run against me because [the solar farm] was going to be next to her house.” In his view, he lost the race because excitement and money combined to produce high anti-solar turnout in a kind of local government primary that ordinarily has low campaign spending and is quite quiet. Some of that funding and activity has been well documented.
“She did it right: tons of ground troops, people from her church, people she’s close with went door-to-door, and they put out lots of propaganda. She got them stirred up that we were going to take all the farmland and turn it into solar,” he said.
Collier’s takeaway from the race was that local commissioner races are particularly vulnerable to the sorts of disinformation, campaign spending and political attacks we’re used to seeing more often in races for higher offices at the state and federal level.
“Unfortunately it has become this,” he bemoaned, “fueled by people who have little to no knowledge of what we do or how we do it. If you stir up enough stuff and you cry out loud enough and put up enough misinformation, people will start to believe it.”
Races like these are happening elsewhere in Ohio and in other states like Georgia, where opposition to a battery plant mobilized Republican primaries. As the climate world digests the federal election results and tries to work backwards from there, perhaps at least some attention will refocus on local campaigns like these.
And more of the week’s most important conflicts around renewable energy.
1. Madison County, Missouri – A giant battery material recycling plant owned by Critical Mineral Recovery exploded and became engulfed in flames last week, creating a potential Vineyard Wind-level PR headache for energy storage.
2. Benton County, Washington State – Governor Jay Inslee finally got state approvals finished for Scout Clean Energy’s massive Horse Heaven wind farm after a prolonged battle over project siting, cultural heritage management, and bird habitat.
3. Fulton County, Georgia – A large NextEra battery storage facility outside of Atlanta is facing a lawsuit that commingles usual conflicts over building these properties with environmental justice concerns, I’ve learned.
Here’s what else I’m watching…
In Colorado, Weld County commissioners approved part of one of the largest solar projects in the nation proposed by Balanced Rock Power.
In New Mexico, a large solar farm in Sandoval County proposed by a subsidiary of U.S. PCR Investments on land typically used for cattle is facing consternation.
In Pennsylvania, Schuylkill County commissioners are thinking about new solar zoning restrictions.
In Kentucky, Lost City Renewables is still wrestling with local concerns surrounding a 1,300-acre solar farm in rural Muhlenberg County.
In Minnesota, Ranger Power’s Gopher State solar project is starting to go through the public hearing process.
In Texas, Trina Solar – a company media reports have linked to China – announced it sold a large battery plant the day after the election. It was acquired by Norwegian company FREYR.