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The AQI is dropping in New York City and Boston ... again.
One thing New Yorkers could always reliably lord over urban Californians was our air. No, our city isn’t perfect — we manage our trash by piling it on the curb and have this pesky thing called “winter” — but at least in recent years our metro area beat San Francisco, Sacramento, and smoggy Los Angeles when it came to the particulates we inhale.
It brings me no joy to report, then, that this spring, tides have turned. Or at least the winds have. East Coasters have evidently inhaled more smoke than most Californians in 2023 due to a quiet start to the wildfire season out West and an explosive start to the one upwind of us in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and now Nova Scotia.
Here’s what the historic AQI has looked like in New York since late April (the yellow spikes mark smoky days):
The historic air quality graph for New York City in spring 2023.IQAir
And here’s what it’s looked like in Boston:
The historic air quality graph for Boston in spring 2023.IQAir
By comparison, here is San Francisco:
The historic air quality graph for San Francisco in spring 2023.IQAir
And Sacramento (note the AQI scale here has changed on the left to out of 50):
The historic air quality graph for Sacramento in spring 2023.IQAir
Though the air quality in Los Angeles has been significantly worse than the AQI in New York or Boston this spring, the yellow “moderate” AQI columns below overlap with a period of heavy urban pollution, rather than wildfire smoke. The yellow columns on the East Coast AQI charts, by contrast, match periods when wildfire smoke blew in from Canada.
The historic air quality graph for L.A. in spring 2023.IQAir
New Yorkers might be surprised to hear they’ve experienced more smoked-tinted sunrises and sunsets this year than Californians, but it checks out: There have been no major (more than 1,000 acres) fires in California yet in 2023. While that might seem unusual, it isn’t; what is unusual are the years like 2021, when the season started in early spring. But 2023 is so far looking to be an average year for California wildfires, which means large burns and regional smoke pollution aren’t expected in the Golden State until late summer and early fall (of course, an El Niño could throw all of this into question).
Meanwhile, in Canada, it is fire season — and it’s been an especially bad one. Almost 5 million acres have already burned, with Alberta on track to have its worst fire year ever. Though smoke from the Canadian fires has blown into a number of northern U.S. states, including Washington and Montana, the jet stream generally carries air east, with some particulate matter making it as far as Boston and New York. (Winds have likewise prevented Canadian wildfire smoke from making it as far southwest as California, hence the unexpected smoke disparity). Over the weekend, a new fire also started in Nova Scotia, causing some 16,000 evacuations around Halifax; the wind has blown much of that smoke southwest, with residents of Connecticut and Massachusetts reporting on Tuesday that they could smell and even taste the smoke.
\u201cSMOKE PLUME...\nFrom Nova Scotia #wildfires creating hazy skies over Boston... sky is much bluer over Worcester. Forecast details coming up at noon on #WCVB\u201d— Cindy Fitzgibbon (@Cindy Fitzgibbon) 1685461877
\u201cAfternoon update... smoke plume continues to move west. There will be about a 4 hour period of reduced air quality. You may smell smoke as this passes through and some fire departments have fielded calls from people wondering what it is. #fox61\u201d— Ryan Breton (@Ryan Breton) 1685460842
The smoke from Canada is also, of course, causing the air quality across the East Coast to plunge. This is not in and of itself a rare occurrence: In 2021, smoke from fires in California likewise caused New York City to experience its worst AQI in 15 years.
East Coast residents may nevertheless feel — incorrectly — that they’re isolated from the dangers of wildfires. In truth, roughly three-quarters of smoke-related asthma cases and deaths occur east of the Rocky Mountains, one study found, due to both population density and wind patterns. Another pre-print study by Stanford researchers that was recently referenced by David Wallace-Wells in The New York Times found similarly that 60 percent of the smoke impact from U.S. wildfires occurs in a different state than the one where the fire is actually burning. Separately, a University of Washington study found that people were 1% more likely to die from “nontraumatic” causes like a heart attack or stroke on a day when they were exposed to wildfire smoke — and 2% more likely the day after.
New Yorkers live in the superior coastal city, but we shouldn’t get too smug about our air. Thinking we’re somehow immune to the West’s smoke problems is patently false
and getting falser. Besides, why should Angelenos get to have all the fun? It’s only fair that we get to obsess over our PurpleAir score, too.
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A conversation with Elizabeth McCarthy of the Breakthrough Institute.
This week’s conversation is with Elizabeth McCarthy of the Breakthrough Institute. Elizabeth was one of several researchers involved in a comprehensive review of a decade of energy project litigation – between 2013 and 2022 – under the National Environment Policy Act. Notably, the review – which Breakthrough released a few weeks ago – found that a lot of energy projects get tied up in NEPA litigation. While she and her colleagues ultimately found fossil fuels are more vulnerable to this problem than renewables, the entire sector has a common enemy: difficulty of developing on federal lands because of NEPA. So I called her up this week to chat about what this research found.
The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity.
So why are you so fixated on NEPA?
Personally and institutionally, [Breakthrough is] curious about all regulatory policy – land use, environmental regulatory policy – and we see NEPA as the thing that connects them all. If we understand how that’s functioning at a high level, we can start to pull at the strings of other players. So, we wanted to understand the barrier that touches the most projects.
What aspects of zero-carbon energy generation are most affected by NEPA?
Anything with a federal nexus that doesn’t include tax credits. Solar and wind that is on federal land is subject to a NEPA review, and anything that is linear infrastructure – transmission often has to go through multiple NEPA reviews. We don’t see a ton of transmission being litigated over on our end, but we think that is a sign NEPA is such a known obstacle that no one even wants to touch a transmission line that’ll go through 14 years of review, so there’s this unknown graveyard of transmission that wasn’t even planned.
In your report, you noted there was a relatively small number of zero-carbon energy projects in your database of NEPA cases. Is solar and wind just being developed more frequently on private land, so there’s less of these sorts of conflicts?
Precisely. The states that are the most powered by wind or create the most wind energy are Texas and Iowa, and those are bypassing the national federal environmental review process [with private land], in addition to not having their own state requirements, so it’s easier to build projects.
What would you tell a solar or wind developer about your research?
This is confirming a lot of things they may have already instinctually known or believed to be true, which is that NEPA and filling out an environmental impact statement takes a really long time and is likely to be litigated over. If you’re a developer who can’t avoid putting your energy project on federal land, you may just want to avoid moving forward with it – the cost may outweigh whatever revenue you could get from that project because you can’t know how much money you’ll have to pour into it.
Huh. Sounds like everything is working well. I do think your work identifies a clear risk in developing on federal lands, which is baked into the marketplace now given the pause on permits for renewables on federal lands.
Yeah. And if you think about where the best places would be to put these technologies? It is on federal lands. The West is way more federal land than anywhere else in the county. Nevada is a great place to put solar — there’s a lot of sun. But we’re not going to put anything there if we can’t put anything there.
What’s the remedy?
We propose a set of policy suggestions. We think the judicial review process could be sped along or not be as burdensome. Our research most obviously points to shortening the statute of limitations under the Administrative Procedures Act from six years to six months, because a great deal of the projects we reviewed made it in that time, so you’d see more cases in good faith as opposed to someone waiting six years waiting to challenge it.
We also think engaging stakeholders much earlier in the process would help.
The Bureau of Land Management says it will be heavily scrutinizing transmission lines if they are expressly necessary to bring solar or wind energy to the power grid.
Since the beginning of July, I’ve been reporting out how the Trump administration has all but halted progress for solar and wind projects on federal lands through a series of orders issued by the Interior Department. But last week, I explained it was unclear whether transmission lines that connect to renewable energy projects would be subject to the permitting freeze. I also identified a major transmission line in Nevada – the north branch of NV Energy’s Greenlink project – as a crucial test case for the future of transmission siting in federal rights-of-way under Trump. Greenlink would cross a litany of federal solar leases and has been promoted as “essential to helping Nevada achieve its de-carbonization goals and increased renewable portfolio standard.”
Well, BLM has now told me Greenlink North will still proceed despite a delay made public shortly after permitting was frozen for renewables, and that the agency still expects to publish the record of decision for the line in September.
This is possible because, as BLM told me, transmission projects that bring solar and wind power to the grid will be subject to heightened scrutiny. In an exclusive statement, BLM press secretary Brian Hires told me via e-mail that a secretarial order choking out solar and wind permitting on federal lands will require “enhanced environmental review for transmission lines only when they are a part of, and necessary for, a wind or solar energy project.”
However, if a transmission project is not expressly tied to wind or solar or is not required for those projects to be constructed… apparently, then it can still get a federal green light. For instance in the case of Greenlink, the project itself is not explicitly tied to any single project, but is kind of like a transmission highway alongside many potential future solar projects. So a power line can get approved if it could one day connect to wind or solar, but the line’s purpose cannot solely be for a wind or solar project.
This is different than, say, lines tied explicitly to connecting a wind or solar project to an existing transmission network. Known as gen-tie lines, these will definitely face hardships with this federal government. This explains why, for example, BLM has yet to approve a gen-tie line for a wind project in Wyoming that would connect the Lucky Star wind project to the grid.
At the same time, it appears projects may be given a wider berth if a line has other reasons for existing, like improving resilience on the existing grid, or can be flexibly used by not just renewables but also fossil energy.
So, the lesson to me is that if you’re trying to build transmission infrastructure across federal property under this administration, you might want to be a little more … vague.
Tech companies, developers, and banks are converging behind “flexible loads.”
Electricity prices are up by over 5% so far this year — more than twice the overall rate of inflation — while utilities have proposed $29 billion worth of rate hikes so far this year, compared to $12 billion last year, according to electricity policy research group PowerLines. At the same time, new data centers are sprouting up everywhere as tech giants try to outpace each other — and their Chinese rivals — in the race to develop ever more advanced (and energy hungry) artificial intelligence systems, with hundreds of billions of dollars of new investments still in the pipeline.
You see the problem here?
In the PJM Interconnection, America’s largest electricity market which includes Virginia’s “data center alley” as part of its 13-state territory, some 30 gigawatts of a projected 32 total gigawatts of load growth through 2030 are expected to come from data centers.
“The onrush of demand has created significant upward pricing pressure and has raised future resource adequacy concerns,” David Mills, the chair of PJM’s board of managers, said in a letter last week announcing the beginning of a process to look into the issues raised by large load interconnection — i.e. getting data centers on the grid without exploding costs for other users of the grid or risking blackouts.
Customers in PJM are paying the price already, as increasingly scarce capacity has translated into upward-spiraling payments to generators, which then show up on retail electricity bills. New large loads can raise costs still further by requiring grid upgrades to accommodate the increased demand for power — costs that get passed down to all ratepayers. PJM alone has announced over $10 billion in transmission upgrades, according to research by Johns Hopkins scholar Abraham Silverman. “These new costs are putting significant upward pressure on customer bills,” Silverman wrote in a report with colleagues Suzanne Glatz and Mahala Lahvis, released in June.
“There’s increasing recognition that the path we’re on right now is not long-term sustainable,” Silverman told me when we spoke this week about the report. “Costs are increasing too fast. The amount of infrastructure we need to build is too much. We need to prioritize, and we need to make this data center expansion affordable for consumers. Right now it’s simply not. You can’t have multi-billion-dollar rate increases year over year.”
While it’s not clear precisely what role existing data center construction has played in electricity bill increases on a nationwide scale, rising electricity rates will likely become a political problem wherever and whenever they do hit, with data centers being the most visible manifestation of the pressures on the grid.
Charles Hua, the founder and executive director of PowerLines, called data centers “arguably the most important topic in energy,” but cautioned that outside of specific demonstrable instances (e.g. in PJM), linking them to utility rate increases can be “a very oversimplified narrative.” The business model for vertically integrated utilities can incentivize them to over-invest in local transmission, Hua pointed out. And even without new data center construction, the necessity of replacing and updating an aging grid would remain.
Still, the connection between large new sources of demand and higher prices is pretty easy to draw: Electricity grids are built to accommodate peak demand, while the bills customers receive are based on a combination of the fixed cost of maintaining the grid for everyone and the cost of the energy itself, therefore higher peak demand and more grid maintenance equals higher bills.
But what if data centers could use the existing transmission and generation system and not add to peak generation? That’s the promise of load flexibility.
If data centers could commit to not requiring power at times of extremely high demand, they could essentially piggyback on existing grid infrastructure. Widely cited research by Tyler Norris, Tim Profeta, Dalia Patino-Echeverri, and Adam Cowie-Haskell of Duke University demonstrated that curtailing large loads for as little as 0.5% of their annual uptime (177 hours of curtailment annually on average, with curtailment typically lasting just over two hours) could allow almost 100 gigawatts of new demand to connect to the grid without requiring extensive, costly upgrades.
The groundswell behind flexibility has rapidly gained institutional credibility. Last week, Google announced that it had reached deals with two utilities, Indiana Michigan Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority, to incorporate flexibility into how their data centers run. The Indiana Michigan Power contract will “allow [Google] to reduce or shift electricity demand to carry out non-urgent tasks during hours when the electric grid is under less stress,” the utility said.
Google has long been an innovator in energy procurement — it famously pioneered the power purchase agreement structure that has helped finance many a renewable energy development — and already has its fingers in many pots when it comes to grid flexibility. The company’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, is an investor in Emerald AI, a software company that promises to help data centers work flexibly, while its urbanism-focused spinout Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners has backed Verrus, a demand-flexible data center developer.
Hyperscale developers aren’t the only big fish excited about data center flexibility. Financiers are, as well.
Goldman Sachs released a splashy report this week that cited Norris extensively (plus Heatmap). Data center flexibility promises to be a win-win-win, according to Goldman (which, of course, would love to finance an AI boom unhindered by higher retail electricity rates or long interconnection queues for new generation). “What if, thanks to curtailment, instead of overwhelming the grid, AI data centers became the shock absorbers that finally unlocked this stranded capacity?” the report asks.
The holy grail for developers and flexibility is not just saving money on electricity, which is a small cost compared to procuring advanced chips to train and run AI models. The real win would be to build new data centers faster. “Time to market is critical for AI companies,” the Goldman analysts wrote.
But creating a system where data centers can connect to the grid sooner if they promise to be flexible about power consumption would require immense institutional change for states, utilities, regulators, and power markets.
“We really don’t have existing service tiers in place for most jurisdictions that acknowledges and incentivizes flexible loads and plans around them,” Norris told me.
When I talked to Silverman, he told me that integrating flexibility into local decision-making could mean rewriting state utility regulations to allow a special pathway for data centers. It could also involve making local or state tax incentives contingent on flexibility.
Whatever the new structure looks like, the point is to “enshrine a policy that says, ‘data centers are different,’ and we are going to explicitly recognize those differences and tailor rules to data centers,” Silverman said. He pointed specifically to a piece of legislation in New Jersey that he consulted on, which would have utilities and regulators work together to come up with specific rate structures for data centers.
Norris also pointed to a proposal in the Southwest Power Pool, which runs down the spine of the country from the Dakotas to Louisiana, which would allow large loads like data centers to connect to the grid quickly “with the tradeoff of potential curtailment during periods of system stress to protect regional reliability,” the transmission organization said.
And there’s still more legal and regulatory work to be done before hyperscalers can take full advantage of those incentives, Norris told me. Utilities and their data center customers would have to come up with a rate structure that incorporates flexibility and faster interconnection, where more flexibility can allow for quicker timelines.
Speed is of the essence — not just to be able to link up more data centers, but also to avoid a political firestorm around rising electricity rates. There’s already a data center backlash brewing: The city of Tucson earlier this month rejected an Amazon facility in a unanimous city council vote, taken in front of a raucous, cheering crowd. Communities in Indiana, a popular location for data center construction, have rejected several projects.
The drama around PJM may be a test case for the rest of the country. After its 2024 capacity auction jumped came in at $15 billion, up from just over $2 billion the year before, complaints from Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro led to a price cap on future auctions. PJM’s chief executive said in April that he would resign by the end of this year. A few months later, PJM’s next capacity auction hit the price cap.
“You had every major publication writing that AI data centers are causing electricity prices to spike” after the PJM capacity auction, Norris told me. “They lost that public relations battle.”
With more flexibility, there’s a chance for data center developers to tell a more positive story about how they affect the grid.
“It’s not just about avoiding additional costs,” Norris said. “There’s this opportunity that if you can mitigate additional cost, you can put downward cost on rates.” That’s almost putting things generously — data center developers might not have a choice.