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On 2030 targets, the IRA, and China’s EV sales
Current conditions: A tsunami advisory is in effect in Japan after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck off the southern island of Kyushu • Tropical Storm Debby made landfall over South Carolina • Last month was the second-hottest July ever recorded.
A new report from energy think tank Ember finds that the world is not on target to meet 2030 added capacity goals for wind power. Global leaders agreed at last year’s COP28 that, to be in line with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must triple renewables capacity by the end of the decade. Ember’s report concludes that under current plans, wind power is set to more than double in that timeframe, “but fall short of tripling.” Ember also reiterates that China is “overachieving,” and is on a path to triple its wind capacity from 2022 to 2030. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is underachieving.
Ember
The U.S. is the country with the biggest gap between its expected wind installations and how much new capacity will be needed to meet its 2030 target, followed by India. And most countries don’t even have explicit wind targets yet. “Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar,” said Katye Altieri, Ember’s global electricity analyst. “The path to a cleaner energy future could be shaped by prioritizing improved policies, regulatory frameworks and financial support.”
A group of 18 Republican lawmakers from the House of Representatives wrote a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson this week, urging him not to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits. The politicians say industry leaders and constituents have been reaching out to express their fears that the GOP will upend the tax regime and “undermine private investments and stop development that is already ongoing.” The letter goes on: “A full repeal would create a worst-case scenario where we would have spent billions of taxpayer dollars and received next to nothing in return.” A majority of clean tech spending made possible so far under the IRA has gone toward projects in Republican districts. As Bloombergnoted, the letter “indicates Johnson may not have the support to undo the Inflation Reduction Act if the GOP retains control of the House next year.”
Ocean temperatures surrounding Australia’s Great Barrier Reef are higher now than they’ve ever been in the last 400 years, according to a new study published in the journal Nature. Researchers figured this out by drilling into some of the reef’s coral and analyzing the samples to measure temperatures going back to 1618. They observed a marked temperature rise starting in 1900 due to the burning of fossil fuels, and warmth has really accelerated in the last decade, with this year’s temperatures “head and shoulders” above any other year, according to Benjamin Henley, an academic at the University of Melbourne and one of the study’s authors. This chart shows the “exceptional nature” of the coral sea temperatures recorded in recent years, and in 2024:
Nature
The heat is causing recurring mass coral bleaching that puts the reef in danger. “In the absence of rapid, coordinated and ambitious global action to combat climate change, we will likely be witness to the demise of one of Earth’s great natural wonders,” the authors wrote.
Federal regulators are joining forces on a fresh effort to go after solar energy scams and help the public parse potentially deceptive business practices in the industry, reported Heatmap’s Jael Holzman. Officials from the Treasury Department, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced yesterday they will soon release a consumer advisory warning against deceptive sales practice, along with a slew of documents to help American consumers gauge whether solar marketers are legitimate and encourage people to report any potential fraudulent behavior in the sector. Solar energy fraud at the residential consumer level is a rare but profoundly painful phenomenon that can acutely harm low- and middle-income households. More than a quarter of a billion dollars in solar-related fraud has been reported between January 2022 and June of this year, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan said.
More than half of the cars sold in China last month were electric or plug-in hybrids, according to new figures from the China Passenger Car Association. The number of new vehicles sold in the country overall fell last month because of a summertime lull, but the share of “new-energy vehicles” sold grew to about 51%. The country also saw its CO2 emissions drop by 1% in the second quarter, marking the first decline since strict zero-COVID lockdowns came to an end. Analysis from Carbon Brief suggests China’s emissions could be on track to decline this year, but a lot hinges on whether demand for electricity eases in the coming months.
Recent research finds that tipuana trees, commonly found in Brazil, are tolerant of extreme drought and that planting more of them could help make urban environments more resilient to climate change.
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On changes at the EPA, New York’s climate superfund, and a failed merger
Current conditions: Winter storm Garnett could drop up to 9 inches of snow on parts of New England this weekend • A blast of warm air is breaking temperature records in Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado • Two people were killed in Tennessee by a possible tornado. If confirmed, this would be the first deadly tornado of 2025.
The Federal Highway Administration issued a letter to state Departments of Transportation on Thursday declaring that states were no longer authorized to spend billions of dollars previously approved for electric vehicle charging networks. The decree pertains to the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program, or NEVI, a program created in 2021 under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated $5 billion to states to strategically build electric vehicle charging networks along major roads. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo explains, advocates believed the NEVI program was untouchable because money that’s already been allocated can’t be recalled, but the FHWA apparently thinks it has found a workaround. Under NEVI, states are each allocated a certain amount of money every year for five years, and they have to submit an annual plan for how they intend to use the funds. Those plans must align with overall program guidance published by the secretary of transportation. The new leadership at the Department of Transportation has decided to rescind the previously issued guidance. That means the state plans that were previously approved are no longer valid. The letter says states will still be able to get reimbursed for expenses related to previously awarded projects, “in order to not disrupt current financial commitments.” But the more than $2.6 billion that has not been awarded will be frozen.
The Environmental Protection Agency put 168 employees on administrative leave yesterday evening. The workers focused on “environmental justice,” specifically addressing pollution in underserved communities. Molly Vaseliou, an EPA spokeswoman, said these employees “did not relate to the agency’s statutory duties or grant work.” As The New York Times reported, the agency cannot put employees on leave for more than 10 days in a year, so “observers said they interpret the administrative leave notices as a first step toward the eventual shuttering the office.” Meanwhile, new U.S. attorney general Pam Bondi told the Justice Department to get rid of its environmental justice and diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, and identify basically anyone connected to these initiatives or who might have received federal funding to advance their causes.
New York is being sued by 22 other states and a handful of fossil fuel companies hoping to block its Climate Change Superfund Act, which requires major polluters to pay for their emissions. Starting in 2028, the companies would end up paying $3 billion each for 25 years – amounting to some $75 billion total – and the money would go towards climate adaptation and mitigation projects. The states challenging the law say only the federal government can regulate air quality. In other legal news, the Supreme Court yesterday denied the Trump administration’s request to pause a case weighing whether California should be able to set its own vehicle emissions standards.
Norwegian clean tech company Freyr Battery has canceled its plans to build a $2.6 billion lithium-ion battery plant in Georgia. The project was expected to bring more than 700 new jobs to the state. In a letter to the Coweta County Development Authority, Freyr said the decision “was made reluctantly, as the Company has realigned its near-term strategic goals.”
The Nissan/Honda merger is reportedly dead, and Nissan is looking for new partners. The two companies had been in talks to create the world’s third-largest automaker by sales, but the negotiations fell apart after Honda pushed for Nissan to become a subsidiary of Honda, instead of creating a joint holding company. Both companies were hoping the merger would allow them to share resources to produce electric vehicles to compete with market leaders like Tesla and BYD. Back in December, when the merger was first reported, one consultant toldThe New York Times that “if Nissan and Honda are not able to achieve this, they will not survive. Times are truly that tough.”
“The overall trend in cost reductions is so strong that nobody, not even President Trump, will be able to halt it.”
–Matthias Kimmel, head of Energy Economics at BloombergNEF. A new report from BNEF says the costs of renewables will continue to fall quickly in 2025, with production costs for new wind and solar farms already undercutting those of new fossil fuel plants.
A former head of the American Meteorological Society on whether the weather agency will wither under Trump.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the federal government right now. Some functions of critical agencies like the Army Corps of Engineers are paused, or maybe they’re not. Tariffs are on and then off again. Other government agencies are shutting down most of their operations at the direction of Elon Musk’s Efficiency Department, even if such moves are technically unconstitutional.
Amid all this uncertainty stands the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which Musk’s team breached earlier this week and which Project 2025 has targeted for breakup. Per Thomas F. Gilman, who wrote the chapter on reforms for the Department of Commerce, NOAA is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,” and its National Weather Service ought to be “fully commercialize[d]” since “Americans rely on weather forecasts and warnings provided by … private companies.”
Created during the Nixon administration, NOAA was designed to bring together disparate scientific agencies to release coordinated emergency weather alerts and responses. Today, it employs almost 7,000 scientists and engineers, although Musk’s team reportedly wants to cut that by 50%. In addition to hosting a trove of valuable climate science, NOAA remains responsible for issuing emergency alerts through its divisions such as the NWS and the National Hurricane Center. If you’re among the 99% of the American population who experienced some form of extreme weather last summer, you’ve likely interacted with NOAA in some small way.
To make sense of the plan to break up NOAA and what it would mean to “privatize” weather forecasting in the United States, I spoke to Keith Seitter, the former executive director of the American Meteorological Society and a current professor at the College of the Holy Cross. Our conversation has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
What is the argument for privatizing weather reporting? Why do folks at places like the Heritage Foundation think this is a good idea?
That’s a really good question — because it’s not. Weather services are provided to the nation through a wonderful cooperative process in which the government and the private sector work collaboratively to provide the best possible services to the people. It is all well thought out, with the National Weather Service and other parts of the government getting observations, running the numerical models, and providing warning services. Then the private sector takes the output from those government projects or processes and creates tailored, value-added forecasts and information that can be provided to commercial organizations in different sectors of the economy.
All of this is done with each component knowing what the other is doing, supporting the other, and tailoring their processes to the maximum efficiency. That’s one of the reasons that the U.S. has the best provision of weather services to the nation — and to the nation’s economy — of any country.
So the National Weather Service and NOAA are the ones with the actual monitors out there gathering the data, and then they give that information to the people who, let’s say, make the apps on your phone. What would it mean to “privatize” weather forecasting, then? What would that entail?
It’s not exactly clear what it would look like. Project 2025 suggests that the government should keep taking all the observations and essentially do nothing else. But the government is also quality-controlling its observations and assimilating them into numerical models. This process requires vast resources and must be completed before you can make the best use of that data.
You’d have to do everything the National Weather Service is doing now before the private sector could take over and tailor it for others. It’s unclear how you could move that line between what the government does and what the private sector does any further toward the private sector without impeding its ability to actually do a good job.
What would privatizing weather mean on the business side? What challenges would the private sector face in trying to make up the gap left by NOAA?
It would be very hard for them to make up that gap. There may be a few large private sector companies like The Weather Company, which has a lot of resources, and maybe AccuWeather — they could probably invest more in computer resources and do some of that stuff themselves, but it’s not an efficient way to get it done. I think the people at those companies would say that’s not the direction they want to move in. [Privatizing weather forecasting is] a solution being proposed where there isn’t a problem because almost anything you do to change the current balance will make weather forecasting less efficient and provide less service to the country.
So it’s not like private weather companies are agitating for this change?
Oh, gosh, no. They’re looking to get even more of that data and content from the government. Part of what happens is the observations and the numerical models — all those things that the government does — are provided to the country for free. The more of that information that the private sector can pull into their systems at no cost, the more products they can create and disseminate in ways that make them more money than if they had to do any of that work themselves. That cost would now fall on them. They clearly don’t want to be in a position where they have to do a lot of the [collection and data processing] that is currently being given to them for free.
What would this mean for users? Is there a risk that people will no longer receive extreme weather warnings?
The warnings are a big issue. Right now, the government is responsible for protecting life and property. The warnings from the National Weather Service are only possible because it’s doing all of the other processes of gathering the data and processing it and running forecasts.
You don’t want 10 different private companies trying to offer warnings to people and deciding who’s going to evacuate and who isn’t — that puts those companies in a position of liability if they make the decision incorrectly. It is a fundamental government responsibility to protect the people, so warnings are intrinsically something that has to come from the government. There’s no other way to get that done without incurring a lot of legal liability.
What frightens you the most about the potential for privatization of weather forecasting in the U.S.?
The loss of the balance that we have now. Almost any aspect that you mess with will make things work less well. There is also the potential for serious problems with the warnings many people depend on in life-or-death situations. We need to ensure that those are preserved and that we are doing the things that protect people and businesses.
What may seem like a way to save a few bucks in the federal government’s budget could lead to the loss of life, property, and business capacity. These could have very large downstream impacts for a relatively small amount of financial savings in the budget.
Is there anything keeping you optimistic?
The Secretary of Commerce that was approved, Howard Lutnick, said in the Senate hearings that he has no intention of breaking up NOAA, and that he’s not going to implement some of those ideas that were part of the Project 2025 handbook. I’m optimistic that as long as he lives up to what he said in those hearings, that’s a better place for us to be.
The other thing is, the nominee for the new NOAA administrator, Neil Jacobs, was the acting administrator in the first Trump administration, and he’s a very good person. He’s very knowledgeable and understands these things well; he’s a well-qualified individual to be put in charge of NOAA. If the Senate confirms him, I feel that he understands these issues and will do everything he can to ensure that NOAA lives up to its mission requirements and fulfills its goals of protecting life and property for the country.
The Federal Highway Administration believes it has found a workaround to a court-ordered stay of execution.
The Federal Highway Administration issued a letter to state Departments of Transportation on Thursday declaring that states were no longer authorized to spend billions of dollars previously approved for electric vehicle charging networks. The decree pertains to the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program, or NEVI, a program created in 2021 under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated $5 billion to states to strategically build electric vehicle charging networks along major roads.
The program has been under threat since the day Donald Trump stepped into the White House. His executive order “Unleashing American Energy,” which ordered agencies to pause the disbursement of funds from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, specifically called out NEVI as a program to freeze. Twenty-two Democrat-controlled states quickly took legal action, and a U.S. District court issued a temporary restraining order requiring the Trump administration to keep congressionally-approved funds flowing, at least to those states.
In general, advocates believed the NEVI program was untouchable. The program’s “safeguards make it nearly impossible to claw back money already allocated, except in cases of misuse or noncompliance.” Beth Hammond, a senior advocate for EV infrastructure at the Natural Resources Defense Counsel wrote in a recent blog post.
But the Federal Highway Administration apparently thinks it has found a workaround.
Under NEVI, states are each allocated a certain amount of money every year for five years, and they have to submit an annual plan for how they intend to use the funds. Those plans must align with overall program guidance published by the secretary of transportation.
Now, the new leadership at the Department of Transportation has decided to rescind the previously issued guidance. That means the state plans that were previously approved are no longer valid, the letter says: “Therefore, effective immediately, no new obligations may occur under the NEVI Formula Program until the updated final NEVI Formula Program Guidance is issued and new State plans are submitted and approved.”
Advocates for NEVI don’t believe this strategy will hold up in court. “This should be carefully scrutinized by states and the legal community,” Justin Balik, the senior state program director for Evergreen Action told me, “as it looks like an attempt to sabotage the program based on ideology that’s dressed up in bureaucratic language about plan and guidance revisions.” Balik said NEVI was “one of the most important resources states have been given by the feds to fight climate change.”
An important thing to understand about NEVI is that after a state has its annual plan approved, it is legally entitled to that year’s allocation of funding. That doesn’t mean said funding immediately gets transferred into the state’s coffers, however. States have to continually request reimbursement from the federal DOT as they implement their programs. So, for example, if a state puts out a request for proposals for NEVI projects, it can then invoice the federal government for the related administrative costs. Once the state awards grants to specific projects, those projects have to reach certain benchmarks before they get any money. If the first benchmark is getting permits, for example, then once a project is permitted, its developer can invoice the state government for the associated costs, and then the state government can file with the federal government for reimbursement.
According to Paren, an EV charging data analytics firm that has been closely following the rollout of the NEVI program, states are legally entitled to spend roughly $3.27 billion on NEVI. That accounts for plans approved for fiscal years 2022 through 2025. To date, states have awarded about $615 million of the funds to just under 1,000 projects — with 10% of those projects being led by Tesla.
The letter says states will still be able to get reimbursed for expenses related to previously awarded projects, “in order to not disrupt current financial commitments.” But the more than $2.6 billion that has not been awarded will be frozen.
“This has been a learning curve for state DOTs and we’re just beginning to hit our stride in a lot of ways,” said Balik. “Exactly the worst time to cut this off at its knees.”
Prior to the memo issued Thursday, states had been divided over how to respond to the chaos of executive orders and court orders. At least six states — Alabama, Ohio, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Oklahoma — had already suspended their programs indefinitely.
“We are still working with FHWA to understand specific impacts to NEVI funding,” a spokesperson for the Ohio DOT told me on Thursday prior to the federal letter being released. Ohio had been an unexpected early leader for the NEVI program. It was the first state in the country to bring a NEVI-funded charging station online, in October 2023. It has since opened 18 additional stations, more than any other state, and has selected awardees to build 24 more. Missouri, by contrast, had been lagging behind. The state had not yet issued a single request for proposals.
But at least until Thursday evening, other states, such as Oregon and California, were advancing their programs. The Oregon DOT posted an informational notice about federal grants on its website earlier this week saying that NEVI funding was not frozen. A spokesperson for the California DOT told me on Thursday afternoon that, “For now, federal courts have prohibited federal agencies from pausing or terminating payment of federal financial assistance funds,” and that “Caltrans’ services remain fully operational.” When I followed up asking if these comments took into account the new letter issued Thursday, the agency said it would need to get back to me on Friday.
The decision to rescind the guidance and invalidate state plans is sure to face court challenges. The Federal Highway Administration, for its part, said it plans to issue new draft guidance for NEVI in the spring, which will then be subject to public comment before being finalized — so the agency doesn’t seem to be trying to throw the program out altogether.
This is a developing story and we will update it with perspectives on the letter as we learn more.