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On Ember’s new report, climate breakdown, and interest rates

Current conditions: Shanghai, still recovering from the strongest storm to hit the city in 75 years, is bracing for Typhoon Pulasan • Extreme flooding in the north of Italy has forced some 1,000 people to evacuate • It’s looking unlikely that this month will break last year’s record for warmest September ever.
The explosive growth in solar power shows no signs of stopping this year. New analysis from energy think tank Ember forecasts the world is on track to add 593 gigawatts of solar power in 2024, nearly 30% more than last year’s installations and nearly 200 GW more than the International Energy Agency predicted at the start of the year. The report underscores how a handful of countries are responsible for most of the world’s new solar capacity. China leads, followed by the U.S., India, Germany, and Brazil. These five countries are on track to account for 75% of new global installations in 2024. And they are sustaining their growth year after year.

Here’s the most important takeaway from the Ember report: “This now puts ambitious climate pledges within reach.” It’s very possible – and indeed likely – that the world will triple solar capacity by 2030. In this scenario, solar power would generate a quarter of the world’s electricity. “Countries need to plan ahead to make the most of the high levels of solar capacity being built today and ensure the continued build-out of capacity in the coming years,” the report says.
The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it would reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by half a percentage point, from just over 5% to just below. What does this mean for renewable energy? Well, it just became a much more enticing investment, wrote Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin. High interest rates have an outsize effect on renewable energy projects, because the cost of building and operating a renewable energy generator like a wind farm is highly concentrated in its construction. Wood Mackenzie estimates that a 2% increase in interest rates pushes up the cost of energy produced by a renewables project by around 20%, compared to just over 10% for conventional power plants. “As rates fall, projects become increasingly financially viable,” said Advait Arun, senior associate of energy finance at the Center for Public Enterprise and Heatmap contributor.
The European Union’s head office has warned that the extreme weather devastating parts of the continent are proof that “climate breakdown” is “fast becoming the norm,” The Associated Press reported. Parts of Europe are experiencing some of the worst flooding in at least two decades, while Portugal has declared a “state of calamity” as enormous wildfires rage out of control and threaten the homes of more than 200,000 people. “We face a Europe that is simultaneously flooding and burning. These extreme weather events ... are now an almost annual occurrence,” said EU Crisis Management Commissioner Janez Lenarcic. “The global reality of the climate breakdown has moved into the everyday lives of Europeans.” Europe is the fastest warming continent on Earth.
Today the startup Brightband emerged from stealth with $10 million in Series A funding and a unique plan to commercialize generative AI weather modeling. Instead of trying to go up against Weather.com, Brightband is tailoring models to specific industries such as insurance, finance, agriculture, energy, and transportation. The round was led by Prelude Ventures. AI models like Brightband’s are trained on decades worth of past weather data, and when fed a snapshot of current conditions, can predict what will come next, much like ChatGPT does with text. Brightband’s CEO Julian Green told Heatmap’s Katie Brigham that customizing forecasts for particular industries will also be as simple as querying a large language model. A wind farm operator could, for example, “just take an attached file of historical wind energy production, and throw it in there and say, hey, tell me what the wind energy is going to be like next week.” Brightband says it hopes to publish a paper by year’s end with an open-source version of its forecast model, alongside evaluation tools to assess its performance.
Truck drivers seem to really like Tesla’s Semi electric truck. PepsiCo is Tesla’s first customer for the trucks, and has 89 of them deployed across various fleets. Speaking at the IAA Transportation event, PepsiCo’s electrification program manager Dejan Antunović said some veteran drivers are reporting that they never want to go back to driving diesel after having handled the Tesla Semi. “Based on its history of delivering efficient electric vehicles in volume profitably, I think Tesla is the one to make commercial electric trucks happen at scale,” wrote Electrek’s Fred Lambert.
Researchers were pleasantly surprised to discover that 90% of young corals that were bred using in vitro fertilization and deposited in reefs across the Caribbean survived last year’s marine heatwave.
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The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act achieves some climate advocate wishlist items — and sets back others.
On Thursday, the Senate overwhelmingly approved the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which has been touted by pundits and commentators across the ideological spectrum as the most significant housing package in decades. The bill is the result of eight months of work by legislators, beginning last July with the introduction of South Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott and Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren’s ROAD to Housing Act; continuing with the House’s Housing for the 21st Century Act, which passed in February; and concluding with Scott and Warren’s updated and unified bill, which was approved by the upper chamber Thursday by 89 votes to 10.
The bill still faces an uncertain future in the House, but its passage is nevertheless a milestone for U.S. federal housing policy — and, in less obvious ways, for climate policy. In addition to provisions addressing zoning and financial literacy, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act takes on a number of issues on the wishlist of climate and housing advocates. It also complicates or sets back other climate-related housing goals.
“For the climate community, which I consider myself firmly a part of, it’s really important to see the areas of the bill that don’t come anywhere close to talking about climate but have such a huge benefit,” Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow in the Housing and Communities Division at the Urban Institute, told me.
Here’s our breakdown of the biggest climate-related provisions in the bill:
One of the most contentious parts of the Senate’s housing bill is section 901, which focuses on “build to rent” housing — that is, single-family and duplex communities that developers construct for the purpose of renting rather than selling as individually owned homes. The bill would restrict investors who directly or indirectly own 350 or more units from purchasing additional single-family homes; for homes that do meet certain exemptions, as well as for new build-to-rent construction, investors would be required to sell the home to an individual buyer within seven years. The rules are restrictive enough that opponents have taken to describing Section 901 as a build-to-rent “ban.”
Hawaii’s Democratic Senator Brian Schatz, a self-described climate hawk, is one of the leading voices advocating to nix the ban. (He was one of the 10 votes against the bill on Thursday.) In a floor speech on Wednesday night, Schatz said he considers the ban to be a “drafting error,” adding that it is “bananas” and “Soviet” to distinguish between single-family homes (which are described as two or fewer dwelling units, and include duplexes) and triplexes, and force their sale.
M. Nolan Gray, the senior director of legislation and research for California YIMBY, concurs. “The best case scenario is, we play weird shell games about which entity owns what,” he told me. “The worst case scenario is capital is scared off, and a lot of this housing production just stops.”
Mike Kingsella, the CEO of Up for Growth, a housing advocacy group that has pushed for an amendment to section 901 to soften the ban, told me, “What we’re saying to multi-family home developers is that it is fine if you do a garden-style apartment, but if you take the exact same property and you want to build houses on it, that’s not allowed.”
The implication, Kingsella said, is essentially that two-bedroom apartments should be built, but you cannot build three- to four-bedroom homes for a young family without the money for a down payment. Section 901 “takes a rung out of the ladder from the small studio you live in when you leave school and get your first job to when you eventually own your own home,” Kingsella said.
Another argument, however, is that the ban would push developers to create more high-density housing, such as apartment buildings, which are more energy-efficient and better for the environment than sprawling suburban single-family home developments. A ban on build-to-rent homes could also encourage greater investment in multi-bedroom apartments, which ought to be seen as a valuable housing solution in their own right rather than just as a stepping-stone to owning a single-family home, the argument goes. (Schatz’s team did not respond to a request for comment about this.)
Gray, however, was skeptical: “Maybe investors who are building townhouses in suburban Atlanta suddenly start building five-over-ones downtown,” he said, referring to buildings that consist of four residential floors over retail space, a common mixed-use construction. “But I wouldn’t assume it without any basis.”
Section 208 reclassifies smaller-scale projects funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development into categories that require less extensive review under the National Environmental Policy Act, ostensibly to speed up housing construction. An expert I spoke to who requested anonymity to avoid retaliation by the government cautioned, though, that the reclassification doesn’t just cut red tape; it also removes the mechanism that requires HUD to ask questions like, “Is this site contaminated?” or “Is this building in a floodway?”
As written, the bill grants acquisitions of property a categorical exclusion under NEPA so long as whatever the agency does with the property does not “materially alter environmental conditions.” But not materially altering environmental conditions is meaningless in practice without a definition under NEPA, the expert explained, and it would allow regulators to interpret the law as waiving all site contamination and flood-risk requirements for acquisition projects that do not involve physical construction.
Let’s say a HUD grantee acquires a housing complex that was constructed on a polluted site — they would no longer have to screen for contamination because they aren’t physically altering the environment. Likewise, the bill would allow “Camp Mystic-style scenarios,” the expert said, referring to the July 4 Texas flood that killed 27 people, including 25 young campers. Under the Senate bill, acquiring an existing building in a flood zone would not require any environmental screening or adaptation measures.
Further, the bill does not waive liability under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, better known as the Superfund law. So if a grantee acquires a contaminated site and does not conduct environmental reviews, as permitted by section 208, they would still face federal liability for any contamination.
In practice, NEPA environmental reviews on HUD projects almost never generate public comments or result in litigation, meaning that this provision will not actually do much to speed construction. Section 208 is a “paper tiger,” the expert told me, exposing the low-income housing residents HUD is meant to help protect from contaminants and flood risk.
Section 203, a.k.a. the Whole-Home Repairs Act authorizes a five-year pilot program to offer grants and forgivable loans to qualifying homeowners and small landlords to fund upgrades related to energy and water efficiency, weatherization, habitability, and accessibility measures like ramps and grab bars. “The intention is to fund home repair and rehabilitation specifically for low- and moderate-income homeowners — think Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the north Great Lakes region, Allegheny County, Pittsburgh, and so on,” Kingsella told me. “It’s for homes that are not in great repair, and that there’s not really an easy way to finance rehabilitation.”
The grants also address climate-related issues without using the radioactive word itself. Though the section doesn’t go into much detail about what energy and water efficiency or weatherization upgrades might entail, one named credentialing organization is the Energy Star program, the federal government’s energy efficiency standard-setting organization, which the Trump administration tried to kill last year. Congress later rescued the program in its 2026 budget, and the Senate reaffirmed its commitment to Energy Star in the housing bill. That’s significant in places like Appalachia, where the cost of energy can rival that of rent.
Kingsella also noted that experts anticipate Americans will move north over the next 10 to 15 years to places with cooler climates, putting a strain on the region’s older housing stock. “This type of resource positions those communities to proactively increase or boost attainable homes with the expectation that a lot more people will be moving into these places,” he said.
Another pilot outlined in the section 212 of the bill would establish a grant program to convert vacant or abandoned industrial and commercial buildings (think former warehouses, factories, hotels, and strip malls) into affordable housing. Grants would run between $1 million and $10 million — for reference, the conversion of an abandoned textile mill in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood into 51 units of affordable housing cost $17.8 million in 2017 — and prioritize areas facing “economic distress.”
While cities like New York have explored converting empty office buildings into affordable housing, developers run into the problem that larger floor plans lack central window access, requiring either fewer units or expensive, extensive modifications, such as light wells down the core of the building. The RESIDE Act won’t support those kinds of conversions; it is more limited in scope and ambition, focusing instead on the types of conversions that are already happening in places like Cleveland and Pittsburgh — “northeastern cities with older commercial stock, which have smaller floor plates, which is critical,” Kingsella said.
The program’s budget comes from excess funds in the Home Improvement Partnerships Program, an existing HUD program. “The approach this bill takes is to set aside monies from home investments to property owners to do the conversion work,” Kingsella told me.
The Housing Supply Expansion Act in section 301 of the bill extends the definition of a manufactured home to include units that lack a “permanent chassis,” the steel frame that allows a home to be attached to wheels and move. The language makes the distinction between manufactured homes and modular homes much thinner, which advocates say will make the homes more socially acceptable and affordable.
“It lowers the cost of manufactured housing; it improves the resilience of manufactured housing — it’s great if it does not blow a hole in manufactured housing efficiency standards,” Mark Kresowik, a senior policy director at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, told me.
About those efficiency standards: Section 301 also stipulates that “no energy efficiency standards for manufactured homes developed by any Federal agency shall have legal effect unless adopted by” HUD. That plays into a long-running tug-of-war between HUD and the Department of Energy over which agency has authority to set energy standards for this class of homes. The DOE issued stricter (and much-delayed) standards in 2022, while HUD has not updated its regulations since 1994. “If the HUD standards for manufactured housing are to have sufficient insulation, air sealing, efficiency requirements — then great,” Kresowik said. “If they aren’t, then this is a big problem.”
Section 501 formally establishes an Office of Disaster Management and Resiliency at HUD, creates a long-term disaster recovery fund in the U.S. Treasury, and establishes a permanent Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program. “This is something that survivors, communities, and experts have been hoping for for many years,” Rumbach told me.
Though the language dances around extreme weather — the term, along with the word “climate,” appears not a single time in the bill — it is designed to more nimbly respond to catastrophes that are part and parcel with a warming atmosphere. Section 501 sets a 90-day clock for delivering disaster funds, compared to the years it would sometimes take previously, and requires that up to 18% of CDBG-DR allocations go toward mitigation.
One major loss for the climate coalition in the ROAD to Housing Act is the elimination of the Build More Housing Near Transit Act, which was included in the House’s version of the bill. The provision would have provided more incentives for building housing, which “seems like a common-sense reform to me,” Nolan Gray told me.
Though it’s not clear precisely why the Build More Housing Near Transit Act was a victim of compromise in the Senate bill, the House is reportedly rankled by liberties the upper chamber seemed to take with its version of the legislation. But despite voicing some drawbacks and reservations, advocates say the bill largely gets housing right. “There’s been a lot of good work put into this bill by countless people, and we continue to fight to ensure that this bill gets across the finish line,” Kingsella told me.
PJM’s market monitor got spicy in its latest annual report.
The independent market monitor of PJM Interconnection, America’s largest electricity market spanning some or all of 13 states from the Jersey Shore to Chicago, took advantage of its latest annual report to share eye-popping figures on how data centers raise electricity costs and lambast existing proposals to fix it.
“Data center load growth is the primary reason for recent and expected capacity market conditions, including total forecast load growth, the tight supply and demand balance, and high prices,” the independent market monitor said in the report, released Thursday. Some PJM states like New Jersey and Maryland have seen some of the fastest retail electricity price hikes in the country, in part due to spiraling costs stemming from capacity auctions, in which generators bid to be available when the grid is stressed. Capacity prices have risen from $29 per megawatt-day to the statutory cap of around $330 in just a few years, costing ratepayers some $46.7 billion over the past three auctions. The total from the three prior auctions: $8.3 billion.
The independent market monitor has used its regular reports and ad hoc commentary to blame data centers for the price boom over the past few years, and its 2025 annual report was no different. “Inclusion of existing and forecast data center load growth resulted in a combined total increase in capacity market revenues” of just over $23 billion, the market monitor wrote of the past three auctions. “Large data center load additions have already had a significant and irreversible impact that will be paid through May of 2028 and will have additional significant impacts on other customers as a result of higher transmission costs, higher energy market prices and higher capacity market prices,” the report said.
The assessment comes at a moment of turmoil for PJM, which has endured pressure from energy regulators and the White House to reform itself in order to bring on more generation more quickly. Some other proposed solutions to PJM’s price woes include coming up with new rules that encourage data centers to bring their own electricity generation, co-locate with existing or planned generation, or to operate more flexibly to avoid calling on the grid at peak demand times. The White House and PJM states even called for a special auction in the system to procure $15 billion of new generation, with a proposal for how the auction would actually run expected in April, according to Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an analyst at Jefferies.
The market monitor used the report to promote its own position: That data centers should bring their own generation, and that they should have their own “expedited fast track load and generation interconnection process.” Data centers that don’t bring their own generation should then have to put up with mandatory supply curtailment by the grid in moments of peak demand.
The market monitor argued that this proposal was consistent with the White House and PJM governors’ agreed-upon principles, as well as the “ratepayer protection pledge” drawn up by the Trump administration and signed onto by most of the country’s big players in artificial intelligence to protect utility customers for higher costs stemming for data center development.
In language more stirring than is typical for a report on market operations for a regional transmission organization, the market monitor called for preserving the market-like structure of PJM and the principle that all customers be served on the grid.
“All loads should be served,” the report said. “All loads should be served reliably. The process for adding large data center loads should be transparent. All loads should benefit from competitive markets.”
The long-awaited R2 will make its debut this spring.
The most important EV of 2026 has almost arrived. Rivian just announced the full lineup and details on the R2, the two-row, five-seat SUV that will make the American EV startup’s vehicles affordable for many more drivers. As promised, Rivian will begin deliveries this spring — but only on the top-end model. If you want to buy an R2 for less than $50,000, you’re going to be left waiting until the end of next year.
The R2’s arrival is truly a make-or-break moment for Rivian. The brand wowed the world with its electric pickup prototype in 2018; the SUV version, R1S, sold prestige EVs to plenty of well-heeled buyers who weren’t looking for a truck. The company now sits where Tesla sat in the late 2010s, just before the Model 3 and Model Y arrived — having lived through years of economic uncertainty, now hoping its mass-market offerings can elevate it from niche brand to large-scale car company. R2’s success would accomplish that and pave the way for the even more affordable R3 that is supposed to get Rivian into the $30,000s.
There’s every reason to think R2 will take them there. At the dollars-and-cents level, the vehicle is basically on par with its most obvious competitor in two-row EV crossovers, the Model Y, which also costs about $58,000 in its most powerful form. The Tesla is a little cheaper at the low end, with a basic version starting around $40,000.
Then again, the Model Y, while it has been recently refreshed, is a vehicle that’s been on the market for half a decade and isn’t as exciting as it used to be. Plus, Rivian doesn’t have the political baggage of being owned by Elon Musk. Other competitors that could undercut the R2 in price — like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Chevy Equinox or Blazer EV, and Hyundai Ioniq 5 — are quality vehicles that don’t feel quite as capable, exciting, or fresh.
First out of the gate will be the R2 Performance, a souped-up edition that will come in a limited Launch Edition this spring. The Performance variant starts around $58,000, but with electric muscle to match the high sticker price: dual motors, 656 horsepower, 0 to 60 in just 3.6 seconds, and enough battery to reach a Rivian-estimated 328 miles of range. (The brand says it’s still awaiting its official EPA estimates.)
Later this year, Rivian says, it will deliver the R2 Premium at around $54,000. The power here steps down to a still-ample 450 horsepower, which lets the SUV zoom from 0 to 60 in 4.6 seconds, and the model includes your expected array of cabin refinements and aesthetic details not available on the less expensive models to come.
Those less expensive models won’t arrive until the first half of 2027 with the R2 Standard, the first Rivian with a starting price in the $40,000s. The rollout of the Standard will start with the 350-horsepower, rear wheel-drive long range version, which, at $48,490, promises to get upwards of 340 miles.
Not until late 2027 should we expect the true entry-level Rivian, the rear wheel-drive, $45,000 R2 with a standard range of about 275 miles. All the R2s come with 88 kilowatt-hours of usable battery capacity, save for the cheapest model, which does not yet have an official figure. And like most new EVs now, R2 comes with the NACS port so it can charge at compatible Tesla Superchargers.
At first glance, R2 feels perfectly on-brand for a Rivian — not just because of the signature stance and headlights, but also because of the adventure-ready list of features. The SUV has 9.6 inches of ground clearance for going off-road, a frunk (that’s front trunk, for those not familiar) with plenty of space, rear seats that fold flat to create a cargo floor for gear, and a rear windshield that powers down to allow a surfboard or skis to stick out the back — or just to let the occupants enjoy the breeze.
The most striking thing about the R2, particularly if you’ve driven Rivian’s titanic R1S SUV, may be its size. R1S is a wide, tall, three-row SUV — and it feels like one when you try to park it. Because R2 is a scaled-down version of its older sibling, it’s difficult to gauge its true size from still pictures. According to Rivian’s specifications, though, R2 is more than a foot smaller in overall length, nearly a foot shorter in height, and 7 inches narrower. That’s some major shrinkage that should make R2 easier to maneuver while leaving plenty of space for five occupants.
That’s more of a nice-to-have, though. One of the R2’s main selling points will be autonomy. Rivian hasn’t been a major player in artificial intelligence or self-driving technology up to this point. But the R2 is the linchpin of its ability to compete in a market segment that will dominate the next decade of automotive development. The company said at an autonomy event in December that it would expand the availability of its hands-free driving system from around 100,000 miles of American roads to nearly 3.5 million in time for the R2 launch. Rivian’s Autonomy+ package — included for a limited time on the launch edition and available on all R2s for $49.99 per month or a one-time fee of $2,500 — includes this feature, as well as the company’s AI assistant to respond to all your natural language in-cabin requests.
The biggest hurdle for R2 probably isn’t the market, but rather the harsh realities of building a new car. Rivian wants to build and deliver more than 20,000 R2s this calendar year, an ambitious rollout matched only by what Tesla accomplished with the Model Y’s ramp up. In January, the Illinois factory that will make the R2 produced proof-of-concept “validation builds,” which test the facilities and processes that will build the car at scale. Second and third shifts of workers are starting there to make sure Rivian can crank out the R2.
It can be done, certainly, and Rivian has spent years and billions of dollars building up to this moment. That might help Rivian avoid the “production hell” that Tesla endured. Though the billions of investment dollars Rivian and reaped through its deal with Volkswagen should give it enough runway for the R2 to take off, nothing in auto manufacturing ever goes perfectly.