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On big changes in the auto industry, Christmas weather, and methane emissions
Current conditions: Bushfires are burning out of control in Australia • The death toll from Cyclone Chido in Mozambique has risen to 94 • It is 25 degrees Fahrenheit in Cleveland, Ohio, which is home to the iconic house from the film “A Christmas Story.”
Both U.S. coasts will be hit with wild weather in the days leading up to Christmas. Out west, back-to-back atmospheric rivers are drenching Washington, Oregon, and Northern California and could cause some waterways to flood. “Travelers immediately ahead of the Christmas holiday will have to contend with wet roads along much of the West coast, from the Canadian border to California,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Heather Zehr. On the other side of the country, frigid temperatures have settled over the Northeast. It’s just 11 degrees Fahrenheit this morning in New York, and 8 degrees in Boston. Some places could see light snow in the coming days, but “otherwise, temperatures this last full week of December will average above normal for much of the lower 48 states,” according to the National Weather Service.
AccuWeather
Honda and Nissan announced today they plan to merge in 2026 to create the world’s third largest automaker by sales. While Honda sees the deal as an opportunity to scale, it’s more about survival for Nissan, which has suffered from slumping sales. Honda’s market cap is about four times bigger than Nissan’s. In merging, the companies will be able to swap and share resources as they invest in new technologies like electrification and autonomous driving to keep up with rivals, all while increasing sales and production of gas and hybrid vehicles to help finance the transition. “To sustain these dual investments, automakers need scale and the operational efficiencies that come with it,” Takaki Nakanishi, head of the automotive consulting firm Nakanishi Research Institute in Tokyo, toldThe New York Times. “If Nissan and Honda are not able to achieve this, they will not survive,” he said. “Times are truly that tough.”
Methane emissions from the Permian Basin, America’s biggest oilfield, dropped by 26% in 2023, according to a new report. What’s behind the plunge? The most likely answer is President Biden’s crackdown on venting and leaky oil and gas infrastructure, a priority he set on day one of his presidency. New rules from the Environmental Protection Agency are set to require producers to identify and fix leaks or face a fine, though the incoming Trump administration could roll back those regulations. The report, from S&P Global Commodity Insights and Insight M, says that “finding and fixing leaks makes financial sense most of the time, even at low gas prices and with no regulatory impetus.” Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that has more warming potential than carbon dioxide. It is estimated that methane is responsible for about 30% of the global temperature rise seen since the Industrial Revolution.
A couple of items you may have missed last week:
EPA Administrator Michael Regan will step down on December 31. He alerted his team through an email on Friday, saying the agency had “confronted climate change with the urgency science demands. We set the strongest standards in history and put billions of dollars to work to spur clean energy development, create good-paying American jobs and lower costs for families.” Regan is the first Black man to lead the EPA, and championed environmental justice during his tenure. Under his watch, the agency issued pollution rules for power plants and oil and gas facilities, rolled out new emissions standards for vehicles, banned some dangerous chemicals, and cracked down on forever chemicals. President-elect Trump has appointed Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA under his administration, and is expected to drastically scale back the agency and loosen environmental regulations.
Research finds that real Christmas trees tend to be more eco-friendly than fake trees, so long as they’re recycled or composted. The study, from the University of Sheffield, concluded that a plastic tree needs to be reused more than five times to lower its carbon footprint enough to be as green as the real thing.
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Psychologist Kari Leibowitz’ book How to Winter has tools to help you survive — even thrive — through a season with no glistening snow.
It is the darkest week of the year. For the lucky folks in Miami, the day still lasts a little over 10 hours; in Anchorage, it lasts less than six. In Utqiagvik, Alaska — the economic center of the North Slope’s oil operations — there is no day at all; the sun last set on Nov. 16 and won’t rise again until mid-January.
When there is no snow, that night feels even more endless. As temperatures warm around the globe, snowfall is noticeably declining, which actually makes winters in northern climates darker since snow reflects so much light. With some parts of the U.S. set to lose 10% to 20% of their snowpack per decade due to climate change, darker and rainier winters are likely in store for millions of us.
If that news fills you with horror and despair (as it does me) then I’ve got the book for you: Kari Leibowitz’s How to Winter, a guide to “harnessing your mindset to thrive on cold, dark, or difficult days.” Leibowitz is a Stanford-trained health researcher and psychologist specializing in “the winter blues.” She and I first spoke in January when she thoroughly debunked the claim that warmer winters will make people happier.
Leibowitz certainly doesn’t think the loss of snow is good news. (In addition to her mindset research, she is on the Science Alliance team at Protect Our Winters, a nonprofit that mobilizes outdoor recreators to take action on environmental issues.) But if warmer winters are a part of our reality going forward, then she also believes we should learn to adapt to them rather than merely endure them.
Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
When we spoke in January, I was working on a piece about the common misconception that global warming and warmer winters will make people happier. Though few Americans actually look forward to darker and colder days, what do we lose when we lose winter?
We lose a lot. If you live somewhere that gets below freezing or that gets snow in the winter, that opens up a huge world of winter recreation possibilities — skiing, snowshoeing, ice skating — and also a world of beauty and fascination. Even people who don’t love winter tend to think of a White Christmas and snowy cabins when they picture a winter that they would love. Ice and frost can be really beautiful.
In my personal experience, and in the experiences of many people I’ve spoken to throughout Scandinavia, a few degrees or more below freezing is much better than a few degrees above freezing because then you get that humidity, and that cold soaks into your bones. There are a lot of places in the U.S. that are really on the border, where a few degrees makes a really big difference between a colder, snowier winter and a warmer, rainier winter. Snow also reflects light; it makes it brighter during the darkest days of the year.
I’m glad you brought that up! One of the things I learned last time we spoke was that climate change is making the world darker in the sense that snow is what reflects light in the wintertime, so warmer and drizzlier winters are potentially more difficult for us to tolerate than very cold ones. What would you recommend people who live in these transitional or rapidly changing climates do to combat the winter blues?
Working with the darkness is key wherever you live, whether it’s somewhere snowier or less snowy. In Scandinavia, you will not see big, bright overhead lights on in people’s houses during the night or the evening in the winter. It’s almost counterintuitive because you think, “Oh, it’s dark outside, let me make it as bright as possible in here.” But that creates a really strong contrast that is tiring for our eyes and our bodies.
Lower lights — using candlelight — turn the darkness into an asset. You can only eat dinner by candlelight when the sun sets early; it makes the darkness part of the vibe and it also reduces the big contrast with the outdoors. That might make it easier to get outside and do things, too, because it doesn’t look as dark out compared to inside. On a gray, rainy morning, I will light candles for 15 minutes when I eat my breakfast. In the U.S., this sort of lighting is usually reserved for special occasions, but I think making it part of the everyday is really valuable.
You also write in the book about rebranding Christmas lights as “winter lights” and leaving them up all season long.
This is something they did in Edmonton, Canada, when they were working on their winter city strategy. It kind of kills me when the Christmas lights come down in the second week of January! We have so much winter darkness left to go and we need that light. Even at home, using twinkly lights in our living rooms makes such a difference in the vibe.
You can only enjoy Christmas lights or winter lights when it’s dark out, and acknowledging that darkness brings something special also helps reframe our feelings about winter.
You wrote this book because many people struggle with the winter. But as I was reading it, I was thinking about how much I dread summer and the inescapable heat of August. Do you think the mindset strategies you suggest for winter could apply to “summering” as well?
They are really different challenges. My theory about winter is that the cold is not as big a problem as the darkness. There is research that backs this up: Evidence shows that light makes us feel awake and that it makes us feel good, and darkness makes us feel tired and can have a mild depressant effect. But the larger message of the book, and the larger approach to the winter mindset, is to find the opportunity in the challenge that you’re facing. And that can help us with anything — including really hot summers.
So, what’s the opportunity? Maybe the opportunity is that you can do more things at night when the temperature is really nice; there is something really lovely about being outside at night when it’s warm! Or maybe you can spend time resting during the hottest parts of the day, like they do in places like Spain. I’ve been to other places in the Mediterranean where they have metal blackout shades that are great for sleeping and keeping it cool. We should think, “What are the opportunities here to work with the climate, to build houses differently that have better cross breezes or have atriums?” We need to work with this reality.We need to adapt.
When did you start thinking about climate change in your winter mindset work?
It really came from my experiences in the Arctic. I’d talk to people there and they would be like, “It’s raining in January. That’s very unusual.” When I was living in Norway [between 2014 and 2015], I went to Svalbard, and there was a bunch of stuff that I couldn’t do because it had been too warm. It had rained, and then the rain freezes on the mountain tops, and it snows on top of that, and then there’s avalanche risk. We were going to go to some ice caves and it wasn’t safe at that time. I was talking to people in Svalbard who were like, “Normally, this fjord freezes over, and we can snowmobile from place to place in the winter, but this year, we can’t.”
Being [in Tromsø, Norway], living there, talking to those people, and really caring about that community, and staying plugged in from afar — it’s really personal. A lot of the things that I was learning about in my research that people in Tromsø look forward to, and that make winter great, are not things that they can always count on. And I think that’s true everywhere you go.
Current conditions: Bosnia’s capital of Sarajevo is blanketed in a layer of toxic smog • Temperatures in Perth, in Western Australia, could hit 106 degrees Fahrenheit this weekend • It is cloudy in Washington, D.C., where lawmakers are scrambling to prevent a government shutdown.
The weather has gotten so weird that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is holding internal talks about how to adjust its models to produce more accurate forecasts, the Financial Timesreported. Current models are based on temperature swings observed over one part of the Pacific Ocean that have for years correlated consistently with specific weather phenomena across the globe, but climate change seems to be disrupting that cause and effect pattern, making it harder to predict things like La Niña and El Niño. Many forecasters had expected La Niña to appear by now and help cool things down, but that has yet to happen. “It’s concerning when this region we’ve studied and written all these papers on is not related to all the impacts you’d see with [La Niña],” NOAA’s Michelle L’Heureux told the FT. “That’s when you start going ‘uh-oh’ there may be an issue here we need to resolve.”
There is quite a lot of news coming out of the Department of Energy as the year (and the Biden administration) comes to an end. A few recent updates:
Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, does not expect to meet its 2025 or 2030 emissions targets, and is putting the blame on policy, infrastructure, and technology limitations. The company previously pledged to cut its emissions by 35% by next year, and 65% by the end of the decade. Emissions in 2023 were up 4% year-over-year.
Walmart
“While we continue to work toward our aspirational target of zero operational emissions by 2040, progress will not be linear … and depends not only on our own initiatives but also on factors beyond our control,” Walmart’s statement said. “These factors include energy policy and infrastructure in Walmart markets around the world, availability of more cost-effective low-GWP refrigeration and HVAC solutions, and timely emergence of cost-effective technologies for low-carbon heavy tractor transportation (which does not appear likely until the 2030s).”
BlackRock yesterday said it is writing down the value of its Global Renewable Power Fund III following the failure of Northvolt and SolarZero, two companies the fund had invested in. Its net internal rate of return was -0.3% at the end of the third quarter, way down from 11.5% in the second quarter, according toBloomberg. Sectors like EV charging, transmission, and renewable energy generation and storage have been “particularly challenged,” executives said, and some other renewables companies in the portfolio have yet to get in the black, meaning their valuations may be “more subjective and sensitive to evolving dynamics in the industry.”
Flies may be more vulnerable to climate change than bees are, according to a new study published in the Journal of Melittology. The fly haters among us might shrug at the finding, but the researchers insist flies are essential pollinators that help bolster ecosystem biodiversity and agriculture. “It’s time we gave flies some more recognition for their role as pollinators,” said lead author Margarita López-Uribe, who is the Lorenzo Langstroth Early Career Associate Professor of Entomology at Penn State. The study found bees can tolerate higher temperatures than flies, so flies are at greater risk of decline as global temperatures rise. “In alpine and subarctic environments, flies are the primary pollinator,” López-Uribe said. “This study shows us that we have entire regions that could lose their primary pollinator as the climate warms, which could be catastrophic for those ecosystems.”
“No one goes to the movies because they want to be scolded.” –Heatmap’s Jeva Lange writes about the challenges facing climate cinema, and why 2024 might be the year the climate movie grew up.
Whether you agree probably depends on how you define “climate movie” to begin with.
Climate change is the greatest story of our time — but our time doesn’t seem to invent many great stories about climate change. Maybe it’s due to the enormity and urgency of the subject matter: Climate is “important,” and therefore conscripted to the humorless realms of journalism and documentary. Or maybe it’s because of a misunderstanding on the part of producers and storytellers, rooted in an outdated belief that climate change still needs to be explained to an audience, when in reality they don’t need convincing. Maybe there’s just not a great way to have a character mention climate change and not have it feel super cringe.
Whatever the reason, between 2016 and 2020, less than 3% of film and TV scripts used climate-related keywords during their runtime, according to an analysis by media researchers at the University of Southern California. (The situation isn’t as bad in literature, where cli-fi has been going strong since at least 2013.) At least on the surface, this on-screen avoidance of climate change continued in 2024. One of the biggest movies of the summer, Twisters, had an extreme weather angle sitting right there, but its director, Lee Isaac Chung, went out of his way to ensure the film didn’t have a climate change “message.”
I have a slightly different take on the situation, though — that 2024 was actuallyfull of climate movies, and, I’d argue, that they’re getting much closer to the kinds of stories a climate-concerned individual should want on screen.
That’s because for the most part, when movies and TV shows have tackled the topic of climate change in the past, it’s been with the sort of “simplistic anger-stoking and pathos-wringing” that The New Yorker’s Richard Brody identified in 2022’s Don’t Look Up, the Adam McKay satire that became the primary touchpoint for scripted climate stories. At least it was kind of funny: More overt climate stories like last year’s Foe, starring Saoirse Ronan and Paul Mescal, and Extrapolations, the Apple TV+ show in which Meryl Streep voices a whale, are so self-righteous as to be unwatchable (not to mention, no fun).
But what if we widened our lens and weren’t so prescriptive? Then maybe Furiosa, this spring’s Mad Max prequel, becomes a climate change movie. The film is set during a “near future” ecological collapse, and it certainly makes you think about water scarcity and our overreliance on a finite extracted resource — but it also makes you think about how badass the Octoboss’ kite is. The same goes for Dune: Part Two, which made over $82 million in its opening weekend and is also a recognizable environmental allegory featuring some cool worms. Even Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, a flop that most people have already memory-holed, revisitedThe Day After Tomorrow’s question of, “What if New York City got really, really, really cold?”
Two 2024 animated films with climate themes could even compete against each other at the Academy Awards next year. Dreamworks Animation’s The Wild Robot, one of the centerpiece films at this fall’s inaugural Climate Film Festival, is set in a world where sea levels have risen to submerge the Golden Gate Bridge, and it impresses on its audience the importance of protecting the natural world. And in Gints Zilbalodis’ Flow, one of my favorite films of the year, a cat must band together with other animals to survive a flood.
Flow also raises the question of whether a project can unintentionally be a climate movie. Zilbalodis told me that making a point about environmental catastrophe wasn’t his intention — “I can’t really start with the message, I have to start with the character,” he said — and to him, the water is a visual metaphor in an allegory about overcoming your fears.
But watching the movie in a year when more than a thousand people worldwide have died in floods, and with images of inundated towns in North Carolina still fresh in mind, it’s actually climate change itself that makes one watch Flow as a movie about climate change. (I’m not the only one with this interpretation, either: Zilbalodis told me he’d been asked by one young audience member if the flood depicted in his film is “the future.”)
Perhaps this is how we should also consider Chung’s comments about Twisters. While nobody in the film says the words “climate change” or “global warming,” the characters note that storms are becoming exceptional — “we've never seen tornadoes like this before,” one says. Despite the director’s stated intention not to make the movie “about” climate change, it becomes a climate movie by virtue of what its audiences have experienced in their own lives.
Still, there’s that niggling question: Do movies like these, which approach climate themes slant-wise, really count? To help me decide, I turned to Sam Read, the executive director of the Sustainable Entertainment Alliance, an advocacy consortium that encourages environmental awareness both on set and on screen. He told me that to qualify something as a “climate” movie or TV show, some research groups look to see if climate change exists in the world of the story or whether the characters acknowledge it. Other groups consider climate in tiers, such as whether a project has a climate premise, theme, or simply a moment.
The Sustainable Entertainment Alliance, however, has no hard rules. “We want to make sure that we support creatives in integrating these stories in whatever way works for them,” Read told me.
Read also confirmed my belief that there seemed to be an uptick in movies this year that were “not about climate change but still deal with things that feel very climate-related, like resource extraction.” There was even more progress on this front in television, he pointed out: True Detective: Night Country wove in themes of environmentalism, pollution, mining, and Indigenous stewardship; the Max comedy Hacks featured an episode about climate change this season; and Industry involved a storyline about taking a clean energy company public, with some of the characters even attending COP. Even Doctor Odyssey, a cruise ship medical drama that airs on USA, worked climate change into its script, albeit in ridiculous ways. (Also worth mentioning: The Netflix dating show Love is Blind cast Taylor Krause, who works on decarbonizing heavy industry at RMI.)
We can certainly do more. As many critics before me have written, it’s still important to draw a connection between things like environmental catastrophes and the real-world human causes of global warming. But the difference between something being “a climate movie” and propaganda — however true its message, or however well-intentioned — is thin. Besides, no one goes to the movies because they want to be scolded; we want to be moved and distracted and entertained.
I’ve done my fair share of complaining over the past few years about how climate storytelling needs to grow up. But lately I’ve been coming around to the idea that it’s not the words “climate change” appearing in a script that we need to be so focused on. As 2024’s slate of films has proven to me — or, perhaps, as this year’s extreme weather events have thrown into relief — there are climate movies everywhere.
Keep ‘em coming.