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An interview with Ola Källenius on Mercedes-Benz’s road to electrification.
Back in 2019 Mercedes-Benz announced that it would go fully electric by 2030 where markets allow, and the brand is rapidly heading towards that goal. Every new platform and powertrain developed by Mercedes starting from 2025 will be electric, with the current set of gas engines designed to last through the next few product life cycles until being phased out.
Even more importantly, according to Mercedes-Benz’s chairman of the board and CEO Ola Källenius, Mercedes will be completely carbon-neutral by 2039, a plan it calls Ambition 2039. This was derived from the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims for the world to be net zero by 2050. I sat down with Källenius at a roundtable in Vienna during the first drive of the new E-Class – still an internal-combustion car, but one with electrified powertrains – to learn more about Mercedes’ decarbonization plans, EV strategy, and overall outlook on the future of the automotive industry.
“Mercedes-Benz is a brand that stands for the promise of a better future, and that better future is fundamentally a zero-emissions business,” says Källenius, adding that the decarbonization goal will happen in just three product life cycles. He also believes that Mercedes could actually hit its decarbonization goal a little early, closer to the start of the 2030s than the end.
It’s not just people inside the company that want this to happen, either. “There’s not a single long investor in Mercedes stock that doesn’t believe the company needs to decarbonize,” Källenius says. “Even if there weren’t regulatory will, we’re at the point where the financial market made up its mind that a sustainable business strategy is the one that is more economically safe.” He adds that even investors with fossil-based revenue streams are heavily investing in new verticals.
Källenius also thinks aggressively pursuing decarbonization will let Mercedes stay nimble. “We already have strategic clarity; we know what the journey and destination is, and it’s zero emissions,” he says. “But during this transformation, which is more than a decade long and it’s difficult to judge exactly when and what will happen, we need tactical flexibility and we have that.” This means that when the industry gets to the point where the new technology unseats the incumbent technology and there is exponential growth, Mercedes needs to be (and already is) in a position where it doesn’t fall behind. Källenius describes Mercedes as being its own venture capitalist, as it’s in control over financing for its transition to EVs.
All of Mercedes’ global assembly plants have already been made powertrain flexible, so a shift to more EV production will be easy, Källenius argues. Mercedes recently transformed its Alabama facility to produce the EQE and EQS SUVs for global consumption, for example.
Also important to decarbonization is the manufacturing process. “The defining challenge of our generation is to take care of the CO2 problem,” says Källenius, “and it has to be from A to Z, all the suppliers, all our operations, the car itself and the car in use. The twin of the CO2 problem is a circular economy. How do we reduce the use of primary materials in the production of goods? It’s an even bigger problem to solve technologically and economically.” For most current car manufacturers the secondary material content – materials that have been used or recycled – is between 20 to 30 percent. Mercedes is targeting 40 percent by 2030. “That might not sound ambitious, but believe me, engineering-wise it’s unbelievably ambitious,” Källenius says.
The idea is to decouple economic growth from resource usage growth, especially when it comes to EV batteries as they are made up of precious materials like lithium, manganese and cobalt. Mercedes is building its own experimental battery recycling and research factory along with some partners, and prototypes have already been developed that can get recycling quotes into “the deep 90 percent” range. It’s also working with German chemical companies to go through every polymer category and figure out recycling options category by category. Källenius says that one day batteries coming back from vehicles will be “the biggest virtual mine in the world.”
You might think it would be hard to get Mercedes’ suppliers and partners on board with the Ambition 2039 plan, but according to Källenius that wasn’t the case. “When we defined Ambition 2039 it only works if all our suppliers go CO2 neutral as well. If you’re not on board with the program, you’re not on board,” says Källenius. “If all things are equal from performance to quality and price, in a competitive bid if one company has a better plan for decarbonization than the other, that could be the kind of thing that tips the scale.”
Once a year Mercedes holds a conference where it invites 500 of its most important suppliers to go over the year’s results and plan for the future, and at the first one in 2019 after announcing Ambition 2039 the company told its suppliers that it expected each one to come up with an equivalent plan. “The reaction back then from some of the more progressive companies was ‘welcome to the club, you are preaching to the choir,’ and for many in the room it was ‘oh shit, these guys are serious,’” remembers Källenius. “Now I would say 90 percent of our suppliers have a plan.”
Some of Mercedes’ steel suppliers are already deep into carbon-free steel production, with the first results to be in production cars in less than two years. One of the companies, the Swedish firms H2GS, should be carbon-free by 2030 thanks to the use of hydroelectric power. As another example, Mercedes is working with an aluminum producer to reduce its carbon footprint by 70 percent. “Ten years ago, pretty much everyone around the table would’ve said ‘that’s not possible, it’s not gonna happen,’” says Källenius. “Now it’s happening.”
Källenius says the two core technologies driving the shift to EVs are the electric drivetrains and the software, and vertical integration is extremely important to both. For instance, Mercedes owns everything about its powertrains all the way down to the battery chemistry.
The vertical integration is tougher when it comes to the digital side of things. Traditionally electronic architectures in cars have been decentralized – when automakers buy an ECU they buy an entire software package along with it, and the car manufacturer then integrates the functionality. “We said we need to control the brain and central nervous system of the car,” says Källenius. Having this much centralized control over the software means updates and improvements can be made much quicker than before.
The new E-Class is the first Mercedes to have the updated MBUX operating system and cloud infrastructure, in which every single line of code has been programmed by Mercedes for the first time.
Like nearly every other carmaker, Mercedes recently announced that its future EVs will use the NACS charge port pioneered by Tesla. NACS will soon become an SAE standard, which Källenius says played into the decision to switch. “We always do what we think is best for the customer in terms of convenience, and the most likely scenario is NACS,” says Källenius. The first NACS-equipped Benzes won’t start coming out until around 2025, and in the meantime the brand will offer an adapter for existing EVs with the CCS charge port.
Automakers have never historically worked on gas station infrastructure, leaving that to energy companies, but in the electric era that is changing too. Accessible fast charging is potentially the largest pain point for EV customers, so more car companies are figuring out their own solutions to help aid the lagging infrastructure. Later this year Mercedes will open its first high-speed charging stations in the US, with 10,000 coming to America, China and Europe by the end of the decade as part of a multi-billion-dollar investment. The switch to NACS will help in the meantime, allowing Mercedes EV drivers to use Tesla’s expansive Supercharger network. “While we’re building our charging infrastructure, why not offer the Mercedes customer access to the 12,000 chargers built by another company,” Källenius says, “it will create more convenience and maybe take away a little bit of doubt for people that are thinking about buying an EV.”
When it comes to passenger cars Källenius says EVs are the clear way forward versus hydrogen or other synthetic fuels, but those solutions could have other uses. Shipping is one of the biggest issues when it comes to decarbonization; for mass-volume models it’s easy enough to build a local factory in China or the U.S., but for a low-volume model like the SL sports car it’s not economically feasible to have multiple production locations. Mercedes is maximizing its use of shipping by rail, especially in countries like Germany where it’s more feasible, and it’s experimenting with using hydrogen for semi trucks. Overseas and air shipping is even tougher to decarbonize, but synthetic fuels could help with that in the future too.
Källenius just celebrated his 30th anniversary at Mercedes, and he says right now is the most exciting time to be in the industry because everything is changing.
“We have to reinvent the original invention.,” he says. “We have got to be Gottlieb Daimler and Karl Benz again.”
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Current conditions: Colorado’s major snow storm will continue well into the weekend • More than 900 people in Pakistan were hospitalized in a single day due to extreme air pollution • Devastating flooding continues in Spain.
The world continues to underestimate climate risks, and irreversible tipping points are near, UN Secretary General António Guterres toldThe Guardian. “It is absolutely essential to act now,” he said. “It’s absolutely essential to reduce emissions drastically now.” His warning comes before the COP29 summit kicks off Monday in Azerbaijan, where negotiators are set to agree on a new global finance target to help developing countries with climate adaptation. Guterres said that if the U.S. leaves the Paris Agreement again under a Trump presidency, the landmark goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would be “crippled.” Experts say 2024 is now expected to be the first full calendar year in which global temperatures exceed the 1.5 degrees target.
With climate-skeptic Donald Trump set to retake the White House in January, many are wondering what his policies will mean for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. He’s likely to walk back pollution rules on cars and power plants, repeal some parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, boost oil and gas drilling, and pull out of the Paris Agreement. Jesse Jenkins, who leads the Princeton ZERO Lab and is co-host of Heatmap’s Shift Key podcast, said projected emissions will indeed be higher than they would under current policies, but “since Trump cannot repeal grants already awarded or tax credits already provided to date, and it is unlikely that every provision in IRA will be repealed,” they probably will remain lower than Jenkins’ so-called Frozen Policies scenario, which assumes no new climate policies since January 2021.
Jesse Jenkins/REPEAT Project
Varun Sivaram, senior fellow for energy and climate at the Council on Foreign Relations, added some global context: “Even with sharp Trump domestic climate policy rollbacks, the change in U.S. emissions is trivial on a global scale and far less meaningful than expected emerging economy emissions growth,” he said.
In case you missed it (we did!): Oil giant BP said in its most recent earnings report that it has abandoned 18 early-stage hydrogen projects. It still plans to back between five and 10 projects, but that’s down from the “more than 10” it had planned for. The move will save BP some $200 million, and “could have a chilling effect on the nascent hydrogen industry,” wrote Tim De Chant at TechCrunch.
Rivian reported Q3 earnings yesterday. Here are some key takeaways:
A new study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment found that carbon dioxide emissions from private jets have risen by 50% over the last four years. The research analyzed data from about 19 million private flights (half of which were shorter than 300 miles) made by more than 25,000 private aircraft between 2019 and 2023. In 2023 alone, private flights resulted in about 15.6 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. Most private flights are taking place in the United States: The researchers say that while the U.S. is home to 4% of the global population, nearly 70% of all private aircraft are registered there. The 2022 FIFA World Cup was one of the most carbon-intensive events for private aircraft. Also on the list? The Davos conference and – uh oh – COP28.
Most private flights occur in the U.S. Communications Earth & Environment
Donald Trump’s election victory this week resulted in a $1.2 billion windfall for investors who bet against renewable energy stocks.
It was a curious alliance from the start. On the one hand, Donald Trump, who made antipathy toward electric vehicles a core part of his meandering rants. On the other hand, Elon Musk, the man behind the world’s largest EV company, who nonetheless put all his weight, his millions of dollars, and the power of his social network behind the Trump campaign.
With Musk standing by his side on Election Day, Trump has once again secured the presidency. His reascendance sent shock waves through the automotive world, where companies that had been lurching toward electrification with varying levels of enthusiasm were left to wonder what happens now — and what benefits Tesla may reap from having hitched itself to the winning horse.
Certainly the federal government’s stated target of 50% of U.S. new car sales being electric by 2030 is toast, and many of the actions it took in pursuit of that goal are endangered. Although Trump has softened his rhetoric against EVs since becoming buddies with Musk, it’s hard to imagine a Trump administration with any kind of ambitious electrification goal.
During his first go-round as president, Trump attacked the state of California’s ability to set its own ambitious climate-focused rules for cars. No surprise there: Because of the size of the California car market, its regulations helped to drag the entire industry toward lower-emitting vehicles and, almost inevitably, EVs. If Trump changes course and doesn’t do the same thing this time, it’ll be because his new friend at Tesla supports those rules.
The biggest question hanging over electric vehicles, however, is the fate of the Biden administration’s signature achievements in climate and EV policy, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 federal consumer tax credit for electric vehicles. A Trump administration looks poised to tear down whatever it can of its predecessor’s policy. Some analysts predict it’s unlikely the entire IRA will disappear, but concede Trump would try to kill off the incentives for electric vehicles however he can.
There’s no sugar-coating it: Without the federal incentives, the state of EVs looks somewhat bleak. Knocking $7,500 off the starting price is essential to negate the cost of manufacturing expensive lithium-ion batteries and making EVs cost-competitive with ordinary combustion cars. Consider a crucial model like the new Chevy Equinox EV: Counting the federal incentive, the most basic $35,000 model could come in under the starting price of a gasoline crossover like the Toyota RAV4. Without that benefit, buyers who want to go electric will have to pay a premium to do so — the thing that’s been holding back mass electrification all along.
Musk, during his honeymoon with Trump, boasted that Tesla doesn’t need the tax credits, as if daring the president-elect to kill off the incentives. On the one hand, this is obviously false. Visit Tesla’s website and you’ll see the simplest Model 3 listed for $29,990, but this is a mirage. Take away the $7,500 in incentives and $5,000 in claimed savings versus buying gasoline, and the car actually starts at about $43,000, much further out of reach for non-wealthy buyers.
What Musk really means is that his company doesn’t need the incentives nearly as bad as other automakers do. Ford is hemorrhaging billions of dollars as it struggles to make EVs profitably. GM’s big plan to go entirely electric depended heavily on federal support. As InsideEVsnotes, the likely outcome of a Trump offensive against EVs is that the legacy car brands, faced with an unpredictable electrification roadmap as America oscillates between presidents, scale back their plans and lean back into the easy profitably of big, gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks. Such an about-face could hand Tesla the kind of EV market dominance it enjoyed four or five years ago when it sold around 75% of all electric vehicles in America.
That’s tough news for the climate-conscious Americans who want an electric vehicle built by someone not named Elon Musk. Hundreds of thousands of people, myself included, bought a Tesla during the past five or six years because it was the most practical EV for their lifestyle, only to see the company’s figurehead shift his public persona from goofy troll to Trump acolyte. It’s not uncommon now, as Democrats distance themselves from Tesla, to see Model 3s adorned with bumper stickers like the “Anti-Elon Tesla Club,” as one on a car I followed last month proclaimed. Musk’s newest vehicle, the Cybertruck, is a rolling embodiment of the man’s brand, a vehicle purpose-built to repel anyone not part of his cult of personality.
In a world where this version of Tesla retakes control of the electric car market, it becomes harder to ditch gasoline without indirectly supporting Donald Trump, by either buying a Tesla or topping off at its Superchargers. Blue voters will have some options outside of Tesla — the industry has come too far to simply evaporate because of one election. But it’s also easy to see dispirited progressives throwing up their hands and buying another carbon-spewing Subaru.
Republicans are taking over some of the most powerful institutions for crafting climate policy on Earth.
When Republicans flipped the Senate, they took the keys to three critical energy and climate-focused committees.
These are among the most powerful institutions for crafting climate policy on Earth. The Senate plays the role of gatekeeper for important legislation, as it requires a supermajority to overcome the filibuster. Hence, it’s both where many promising climate bills from the House go to die, as well as where key administrators such as the heads of the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency are vetted and confirmed.
We’ll have to wait a bit for the Senate’s new committee chairs to be officially confirmed. But Jeff Navin, co-founder at the climate change-focused government affairs firm Boundary Stone Partners, told me that since selections are usually based on seniority, in many cases it’s already clear which Republicans are poised to lead under Trump and which Democrats will assume second-in-command (known as the ranking member). Here’s what we know so far.
This committee has been famously led by Joe Manchin, the former Democrat, now Independent senator from West Virginia, who will retire at the end of this legislative session. Energy and Natural Resources has a history of bipartisan collaboration and was integral in developing many of the key provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act — and could thus play a key role in dismantling them. Overall, the committee oversees the DOE, the Department of the Interior, the U.S. Forest Service, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, so it’s no small deal that its next chairman will likely be Mike Lee, the ultra-conservative Republican from Utah. That’s assuming that the committee's current ranking member, John Barrasso of Wyoming, wins his bid for Republican Senate whip, which seems very likely.
Lee opposes federal ownership of public lands, setting himself up to butt heads with Martin Heinrich, the Democrat from New Mexico and likely the committee’s next ranking member. Lee has also said that solving climate change is simply a matter of having more babies, as “problems of human imagination are not solved by more laws, they’re solved by more humans.” As Navin told me, “We've had this kind of safe space where so-called quiet climate policy could get done in the margins. And it’s not clear that that's going to continue to exist with the new leadership.”
This committee is currently chaired by Democrat Tom Carper of Delaware, who is retiring after this term. Poised to take over is the Republican’s current ranking member, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia. She’s been a strong advocate for continued reliance on coal and natural gas power plants, while also carving out areas of bipartisan consensus on issues such as nuclear energy, carbon capture, and infrastructure projects during her tenure on the committee. The job of the Environment and Public Works committee is in the name: It oversees the EPA, writes key pieces of environmental legislation such as the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act, and supervises public infrastructure projects such as highways, bridges, and dams.
Navin told me that many believe the new Democratic ranking member will be Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, although to do so, he would have to step down from his perch at the Senate Budget Committee, where he is currently chair. A tireless advocate of the climate cause, Whitehouse has worked on the Environment and Public Works committee for over 15 years, and lately seems to have had a relatively productive working relationship with Capito.
This subcommittee falls under the broader Senate Appropriations Committee and is responsible for allocating funding for the DOE, various water development projects, and various other agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
California’s Dianne Feinstein used to chair this subcommittee until her death last year, when Democrat Patty Murray of Washington took over. Navin told me that the subcommittee’s next leader will depend on how the game of “musical chairs” in the larger Appropriations Committee shakes out. Depending on their subcommittee preferences, the chair could end up being John Kennedy of Louisiana, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, or Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. It’s likewise hard to say who the top Democrat will be.