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The oldest climate story isn’t about a wildfire or a hurricane, a heat wave or a drought. It’s about a flood.
“The deluge is terrifying not just for its destructive capacity but also for the way it undoes all that has been accomplished, brings us back to the fathomless chaos of beginning,” The New Yorker’s Avi Steinberg writes of this most primordial human fear, the story of which has been echoed across cultures and religions from the Mesopotamian Epic of Gilgamesh to the Bible’s Old Testament to the Ancient Greek Deucalion Myth to stories told by Native peoples across North America. It might also be humankind’s oldest cautionary tale: When the rain starts and the waters begin to rise, pay attention.
In the United States, floods are the deadliest extreme weather phenomenon after heat waves. In particular, flash floods — which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration distinguishes as flooding that “begins within 6 hours, and often within 3 hours, of ... heavy rainfall” — often take people by surprise, or are dangerously underestimated.
With Hurricane Hilary threatening to dump potentially a year’s worth of rain on parts of the southwestern United States in the span of 72 hours, learning how to react to rising waters ahead of time can be life-saving. This is what you need to know.
Unlike learning your personal wildfire risk, which is relatively easy, it can be frustrating to try to figure out the flood risk of your home.
FEMA publishes flood maps (you can search by your address here), but the shading key can be hard to make out and I had difficulty getting the images to load. I had my best luck navigating to this version of the map, clicking on the location I was interested in, then clicking to the second page of the pop-up information, where you will see “Flood Hazard Zones” followed by a letter. The letters B, C, and X designate moderate- to low-risk flood areas (though the risk in these locations is not non-existent!) while high-risk areas are marked with A or V.

Personally, I preferred the clear information laid out at RiskFactor.com. The website told me my neighborhood’s risk (I live by the river in New York City, so mine is “moderate”) and the number of properties in the area that have a “greater than ... 26% chance of being severely affected by flooding over the next 30 years” (for my neighborhood, 16%!). The website will even estimate the “max depth of flooding” of a specific home or building for this year and in the next 30 years.
If you are in a moderate- to high-risk area on either map, you should take steps to prepare for a flash flood. Even if you score lower, you might want to consider preparing your house because minimal risk doesn’t denote zero risk.
Either way, you should read the below section about “what to do if you’re in a car during a flash flood,” since such a scenario can happen to anyone.
You don’t have to wait for a flash flood warning to begin to prepare for the worst. But if you’re in a situation where you can anticipate flooding — like much of Southern California, Nevada, and southwestern Arizona can right now — you should prepare ahead of time to run errands so you won’t need to leave the house during the storm. Keep in mind, the best way to stay safe during a flash flood is to not encounter the flood in the first place.
Make sure you have enough food for several days, as well as enough pet food for your animals. Also be sure to pick up any prescriptions or medications you might need. Anticipate any other reasons why you might need to leave your home and try to prevent or limit them ahead of time.
Confirm that the contents of your “go bag” or emergency evacuation kit are up-to-date. Here’s a generic checklist of what should go in it, as well as a version in Spanish.
Check the batteries in your flashlights and charge backup batteries for electronics like cell phones, in case the power goes out.
Clean up your yard if you have time; secure outdoor furniture so it doesn’t get blown around.
Prepare electricity-free entertainment options (now is the time to start brushing up on gin rummy).
Check on neighbors or relatives who might not be aware of the coming storm or have made preparations yet.
I can't believe I have to write this, but absolutely do not order Doordash or Uber Eats or food or products from any other courier service during flash flood conditions. Doing so puts other people in direct danger. Your ramen craving can be satisfied later.
Never wait out a storm in a basement or an apartment that is below ground level if you live in an area with moderate to high flood risk; move to a higher floor or find a different location to shelter in. Even if your home or basement has been okay in previous rainstorms, major flood events can overwhelm city sewer systems and back up water into areas it hasn’t reached before. As Reza Khanbilvardi, a professor of civil engineering and hydrology at City College of New York, told Gothamist after Hurricane Ida killed dozens in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut in 2021, “Apartments in cellars and basements can be death traps.” Paved urban areas can be especially dangerous in these conditions.
Follow potential evacuation alerts on your phone or on a radio (yes, they still exist!). Sign up for alerts now if you haven’t already.
Seal your important documents in a gallon-size freezer bag or other waterproof bag if you anticipate needing to evacuate, The New York Times suggests.
Unplug electronics and move any valuables to higher floors or locations if you have time to prepare for an evacuation.
If water enters your home, evacuate immediately with your go bag. Do not wait or try to retrieve any additional items. One of the most common ways people get hurt during flash floods is by waiting too long to evacuate. Use your best judgment — if it feels safer to climb to a higher floor than to try to drive to higher ground, do so, but avoid sheltering in an attic where FEMA warns you could get trapped. “Go on the roof only if necessary,” FEMA writes, and “signal for help.”
Do not attempt to walk or swim through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water is enough to knock an adult off their feet. Electrocution is also the second-biggest cause of death during a flood after drowning; never attempt to turn off a circuit breaker box or touch appliances if you are wet or standing in water.
If you come in contact with floodwaters, be sure to wash that area of your body very well when you reach safety.
If at all possible, avoid driving during flash flood conditions. Of course, this isn’t always possible — often people are out when they get caught in a storm. The National Weather Service reports that nearly half of flash-flood fatalities are vehicle-related and the “majority” of victims are male.
First and foremost, never, ever drive through floodwaters or around a roadblock or barrier. “Turn around, don’t drown” is a well-worn NWS slogan for a reason. Just 6 inches of flowing water can move a car and just 12 inches can carry it away — it doesn’t matter how good of a driver you are.
Additionally, even if the water looks shallow, it might not be. “Do not attempt to cross a flooded road even if the car in front of you made it through,” meteorologist Bonnie Schneider writes in her book Extreme Weather.
If your car stalls in water, first responders want you to remember “seatbelt, windows, out.” Do not waste valuable time trying to call 911 and wait for rescue. Unbuckle immediately so you are free to move. Then roll down the windows so that if the car’s electrical system shorts out, you still have a means of escape. (As a backup, buy a “Lifehammer” to punch your way through the window and out of your car. If you do not have a Lifehammer or something similar, the pointy metal ends of a headrest can work in a pinch, The New York Times reports.)
At this point, there is “no right answer,” Joseph Bushra, the medical director with Narberth Ambulance, told WHYY. You need to assess the situation. If it is safe to exit your car and escape to higher ground, do so, but plan your path before getting out of the car and remember, just 6 inches of water can knock an adult over.
If it is not safe to try to make it to higher ground, then you need to get on top of your car. Turn on your hazard lights to make the car visible to first responders. Evacuate children first, starting with the oldest child, and tell them to hang onto whatever they can, The New York Times advises. Once you have evacuated and are on top of your car, then call 911.
It’s not called a “worst-case scenario” for nothing. So what do you do if you end up in the water during a flash flood?
Your number one priority should be to try to get out of the water as quickly as you can. Climb a tree, a building, a car or truck, or head toward any available higher ground.
If you are forced to swim, move perpendicular to the current. Keep in mind this is a last possible resort: “People need to realize that most people who lose their footing in a flash flood don’t get out,” Julie Munger, the founder of Sierra Rescue International, told The New York Times.
If swimming to safety isn’t possible, the Riverside County Fire Department recommends orienting your body so you’re on your back, with your feet down-current, so you can use them to move debris out of the way. “Most victims in swift water die when they get pinned against obstacles, or get trapped in submerged debris and vegetation,” the department writes. Get out of the water or on top of something as quickly as possible — and hold on tight.
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According to a new analysis shared exclusively with Heatmap, coal’s equipment-related outage rate is about twice as high as wind’s.
The Trump administration wants “beautiful clean coal” to return to its place of pride on the electric grid because, it says, wind and solar are just too unreliable. “If we want to keep the lights on and prevent blackouts from happening, then we need to keep our coal plants running. Affordable, reliable and secure energy sources are common sense,” Chris Wright said on X in July, in what has become a steady drumbeat from the administration that has sought to subsidize coal and put a regulatory straitjacket around solar and (especially) wind.
This has meant real money spent in support of existing coal plants. The administration’s emergency order to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open (“to secure grid reliability”), for example, has cost ratepayers served by Michigan utility Consumers Energy some $80 million all on its own.
But … how reliable is coal, actually? According to an analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund of data from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit that oversees reliability standards for the grid, coal has the highest “equipment-related outage rate” — essentially, the percentage of time a generator isn’t working because of some kind of mechanical or other issue related to its physical structure — among coal, hydropower, natural gas, nuclear, and wind. Coal’s outage rate was over 12%. Wind’s was about 6.6%.
“When EDF’s team isolated just equipment-related outages, wind energy proved far more reliable than coal, which had the highest outage rate of any source NERC tracks,” EDF told me in an emailed statement.
Coal’s reliability has, in fact, been decreasing, Oliver Chapman, a research analyst at EDF, told me.
NERC has attributed this falling reliability to the changing role of coal in the energy system. Reliability “negatively correlates most strongly to capacity factor,” or how often the plant is running compared to its peak capacity. The data also “aligns with industry statements indicating that reduced investment in maintenance and abnormal cycling that are being adopted primarily in response to rapid changes in the resource mix are negatively impacting baseload coal unit performance.” In other words, coal is struggling to keep up with its changing role in the energy system. That’s due not just to the growth of solar and wind energy, which are inherently (but predictably) variable, but also to natural gas’s increasing prominence on the grid.
“When coal plants are having to be a bit more varied in their generation, we're seeing that wear and tear of those plants is increasing,” Chapman said. “The assumption is that that's only going to go up in future years.”
The issue for any plan to revitalize the coal industry, Chapman told me, is that the forces driving coal into this secondary role — namely the economics of running aging plants compared to natural gas and renewables — do not seem likely to reverse themselves any time soon.
Coal has been “sort of continuously pushed a bit more to the sidelines by renewables and natural gas being cheaper sources for utilities to generate their power. This increased marginalization is going to continue to lead to greater wear and tear on these plants,” Chapman said.
But with electricity demand increasing across the country, coal is being forced into a role that it might not be able to easily — or affordably — play, all while leading to more emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, mercury, and, of course, carbon dioxide.
The coal system has been beset by a number of high-profile outages recently, including at the largest new coal plant in the country, Sandy Creek in Texas, which could be offline until early 2027, according to the Texas energy market ERCOT and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In at least one case, coal’s reliability issues were cited as a reason to keep another coal generating unit open past its planned retirement date.
Last month, Colorado Representative Will Hurd wrote a letter to the Department of Energy asking for emergency action to keep Unit 2 of the Comanche coal plant in Pueblo, Colorado open past its scheduled retirement at the end of his year. Hurd cited “mechanical and regulatory constraints” for the larger Unit 3 as a justification for keeping Unit 2 open, to fill in the generation gap left by the larger unit. In a filing by Xcel and several Colorado state energy officials also requesting delaying the retirement of Unit 2, they disclosed that the larger Unit 3 “experienced an unplanned outage and is offline through at least June 2026.”
Reliability issues aside, high electricity demand may turn into short-term profits at all levels of the coal industry, from the miners to the power plants.
At the same time the Trump administration is pushing coal plants to stay open past their scheduled retirement, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting that natural gas prices will continue to rise, which could lead to increased use of coal for electricity generation. The EIA forecasts that the 2025 average price of natural gas for power plants will rise 37% from 2024 levels.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights project “a continued rebound in thermal coal consumption throughout 2026 as thermal coal prices remain competitive with short-term natural gas prices encouraging gas-to-coal switching,” S&P coal analyst Wendy Schallom told me in an email.
“Stronger power demand, rising natural gas prices, delayed coal retirements, stockpiles trending lower, and strong thermal coal exports are vital to U.S. coal revival in 2025 and 2026.”
And we’re all going to be paying the price.
Rural Marylanders have asked for the president’s help to oppose the data center-related development — but so far they haven’t gotten it.
A transmission line in Maryland is pitting rural conservatives against Big Tech in a way that highlights the growing political sensitivities of the data center backlash. Opponents of the project want President Trump to intervene, but they’re worried he’ll ignore them — or even side with the data center developers.
The Piedmont Reliability Project would connect the Peach Bottom nuclear plant in southern Pennsylvania to electricity customers in northern Virginia, i.e.data centers, most likely. To get from A to B, the power line would have to criss-cross agricultural lands between Baltimore, Maryland and the Washington D.C. area.
As we chronicle time and time again in The Fight, residents in farming communities are fighting back aggressively – protesting, petitioning, suing and yelling loudly. Things have gotten so tense that some are refusing to let representatives for Piedmont’s developer, PSEG, onto their properties, and a court battle is currently underway over giving the company federal marshal protection amid threats from landowners.
Exacerbating the situation is a quirk we don’t often deal with in The Fight. Unlike energy generation projects, which are usually subject to local review, transmission sits entirely under the purview of Maryland’s Public Service Commission, a five-member board consisting entirely of Democrats appointed by current Governor Wes Moore – a rumored candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. It’s going to be months before the PSC formally considers the Piedmont project, and it likely won’t issue a decision until 2027 – a date convenient for Moore, as it’s right after he’s up for re-election. Moore last month expressed “concerns” about the project’s development process, but has brushed aside calls to take a personal position on whether it should ultimately be built.
Enter a potential Trump card that could force Moore’s hand. In early October, commissioners and state legislators representing Carroll County – one of the farm-heavy counties in Piedmont’s path – sent Trump a letter requesting that he intervene in the case before the commission. The letter followed previous examples of Trump coming in to kill planned projects, including the Grain Belt Express transmission line and a Tennessee Valley Authority gas plant in Tennessee that was relocated after lobbying from a country rock musician.
One of the letter’s lead signatories was Kenneth Kiler, president of the Carroll County Board of Commissioners, who told me this lobbying effort will soon expand beyond Trump to the Agriculture and Energy Departments. He’s hoping regulators weigh in before PJM, the regional grid operator overseeing Mid-Atlantic states. “We’re hoping they go to PJM and say, ‘You’re supposed to be managing the grid, and if you were properly managing the grid you wouldn’t need to build a transmission line through a state you’re not giving power to.’”
Part of the reason why these efforts are expanding, though, is that it’s been more than a month since they sent their letter, and they’ve heard nothing but radio silence from the White House.
“My worry is that I think President Trump likes and sees the need for data centers. They take a lot of water and a lot of electric [power],” Kiler, a Republican, told me in an interview. “He’s conservative, he values property rights, but I’m not sure that he’s not wanting data centers so badly that he feels this request is justified.”
Kiler told me the plan to kill the transmission line centers hinges on delaying development long enough that interest rates, inflation and rising demand for electricity make it too painful and inconvenient to build it through his resentful community. It’s easy to believe the federal government flexing its muscle here would help with that, either by drawing out the decision-making or employing some other as yet unforeseen stall tactic. “That’s why we’re doing this second letter to the Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of Energy asking them for help. I think they may be more sympathetic than the president,” Kiler said.
At the moment, Kiler thinks the odds of Piedmont’s construction come down to a coin flip – 50-50. “They’re running straight through us for data centers. We want this project stopped, and we’ll fight as well as we can, but it just seems like ultimately they’re going to do it,” he confessed to me.
Thus is the predicament of the rural Marylander. On the one hand, Kiler’s situation represents a great opportunity for a GOP president to come in and stand with his base against a would-be presidential candidate. On the other, data center development and artificial intelligence represent one of the president’s few economic bright spots, and he has dedicated copious policy attention to expanding growth in this precise avenue of the tech sector. It’s hard to imagine something less “energy dominance” than killing a transmission line.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Plus more of the week’s most important fights around renewable energy.
1. Wayne County, Nebraska – The Trump administration fined Orsted during the government shutdown for allegedly killing bald eagles at two of its wind projects, the first indications of financial penalties for energy companies under Trump’s wind industry crackdown.
2. Ocean County, New Jersey – Speaking of wind, I broke news earlier this week that one of the nation’s largest renewable energy projects is now deceased: the Leading Light offshore wind project.
3. Dane County, Wisconsin – The fight over a ginormous data center development out here is turning into perhaps one of the nation’s most important local conflicts over AI and land use.
4. Hardeman County, Texas – It’s not all bad news today for renewable energy – because it never really is.