Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Guides

Does Climate Change Make the Santa Ana Winds Worse?

The legendary winter gusts have long freaked out Angelenos.

•
The Santa Ana winds.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images, NASA Earth Observatory

“It is the season of suicide and divorce and prickly dread, wherever the wind blows,” the great Los Angeles chronicler Joan Didion once wrote of the Santa Ana winds. It also happens to be the season of wildfires. The winds “bedeviled” efforts to fight the deadly Woolsey fire in 2018 and created “dangerous conditions” when they whipped the nearly 20,000-acre Mountain fire in Ventura County this past fall. And they were blowing, too, when a spark of unknown origin ignited the now 23,000 acres of wildfire burning through the suburbs of Los Angeles.

Though steeped in mystery and superstition (writers call them the “devil winds”), the Santa Ana winds are common in Los Angeles during this time of year. (Scientists call them simply “offshore winds.”) The phenomenon is caused by winter’s cold, dry air becoming lodged in the bowl of the Great Basin, where it forms a high-pressure area. That clockwise-moving air wants to escape, and it does so by rushing down and south through the mountain passes to the low-pressure area on the coast: Los Angeles.

The wind can pick up a lot of speed — on Wednesday morning, gusts topped 100 miles per hour in the San Gabriel Mountains. It can also become drier and warmer — by as much as 50 degrees Fahrenheit — as it rushes through the passes toward the coast, which is what gives the Santa Anas their signature warmth, which so many find disquieting.

What makes the Santa Ana winds happening now unique?

For one thing, the current Santa Anas are on the upper end of the spectrum for velocity, which is part of why they have such a significant impact — and cause firefighters so much trouble. For another, there is a “rare placement of upper-level jet stream winds” giving the system a more northerly flow as opposed to the usual north-easterly orientation, Scott Capps, an atmospheric scientist and the head of Atmospheric Data Solutions, a forecasting firm, told me in an email. As a result, “many areas that are typically not impacted by Santa Ana winds were impacted.”

Does climate change affect the Santa Anas?

“Logically, it makes sense that climate change will impact the frequency and characteristics of [the Santa Anas],” Capps told me. However, “due to the complexity of the environment, we cannot blame one single factor for any extreme weather event.” The more obvious connection between the L.A. fires and climate change is the lack of precipitation during what is supposed to be the region’s wet season; some parts of southern California have received just 10% of their normal rainfall since October, making the area ripe for a fire.

Scientists used to think that inland warming would reduce the cold weather-related high pressure in the Great Basin and weaken the Santa Anas. While it does appear that so-called “cold” Santa Anas — caused by air in the Great Basin that is so cold initially that it’s still chilly when it reaches L.A., and which account for about a third of all Santa Anas — are becoming less frequent, the more traditional “warm” winds that are associated with wildfires don’t actually seem to bear out this hypothesis. Instead, they “are spread uniformly over the seven decades of record,” the authors of a 2021 study wrote.

If climate change is doing anything to warm or accelerate Santa Anas, the data would appear to suggest“an increasing potential of warmer and drier [Santa Ana winds] to dry out coastal vegetation and, particularly in anomalously dry winters, enhance the coastal wildfire season even into spring,” the authors went on.

While it’s far too soon to link the California disaster to climate change, the study’s authors now seem prescient: dry vegetation and an unusually dry winter both go far in explaining why this week’s fires are so destructive.

Yellow

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe to access Heatmap's exclusive climate and energy polling, award-winning journalism, and subscriber-only events. Save $57 on an annual subscription, just $156 $99/year.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
AM Briefing

Democrats Shellack

On Democrats’ very good night, Russian uranium, and a cane toad plague

The Capitol.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Heavy rainfall in Florida and the Southwest caused flooding that forced local officials to enact emergency Election Day measures to make accommodate voters • Temperatures are up to nearly 90 degrees Fahrenheit amid a major rainstorm in Puerto Rico, the most populous U.S. territory, where the limits of federal representation mean there was no election yesterday • The eastern Pacific basin has broken multiple records with 24 named storms and 13 hurricanes so far, and nearly four weeks before the season ends.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Democrats shellack

The next governor and senator from Texas, both Democrats.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
Politics

A Chief Antagonist of Offshore Wind Loses His Seat

Rep. Jeff Van Drew was defeated by ... another wind opponent.

Jeff Van Drew and Zack Mullock.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Democrat Zack Mullock unseated Representative Jeff Van Drew, one of offshore wind’s biggest foes, on Tuesday night in the race for New Jersey’s second district. But while Mullock is a fan of renewable energy, he’s still a man of the south Jersey shore — and unlikely to be a champion for turbines off his coast.

District 2 encompasses the entire lower quarter of the state, covering six coastal counties from Atlantic City down to the tip of Cape May and around to the Delaware Bay. The area is a hotbed for offshore wind opposition, where groups like Protect our Coasts NJ have filed legal challenges against almost every wind project proposed in the region.

Keep reading...Show less
Politics

If This Was a Data Center Election, Data Centers Lost

Early signs point to a rough election for AI infrastructure.

Putting a sticker on a data center.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

We’ve seen enough: If this was the data center election, it was a really bad night for the industry.

Democratic campaigns and their affiliated Super PACs spent bigly on data center-themed attack ads. The ads came in various flavors. Some ads painted a vote for tax cuts as aiding data center developers. Others brought up candidates’ previous support for data centers or stock the candidate may have held in the tech industry or AI infrastructure developers. As Election Day approached, the data center industry sought to bat back claims that their sector’s poor reputation with the electorate would sway the results. People may have soured on their industry, they argued, but people weren’t going to vote based on that position.

Keep reading...Show less
Green