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Policy Watch

Nothing Is Safe from Trump

The week’s top news around renewable energy policy.

Trump.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

1. Forget about the IRA – As the dust has settled post-election, it’s becoming clearer far more than the IRA is at stake in the coming Trump 2.0 administration – namely, whether what people expect in the normal course of governing will resume at all.

  • Case in point: Massachusetts electeds just learned they will not be able to complete talks on new offshore wind procurement contracts until after Trump takes office. Will any of these projects even be able to pursue federal permits?
  • Or take statutes and agencies once considered sacrosanct. Overnight, The Washington Post reported Trump may seek to unilaterally cut programs with expired authorizations. That includes the Energy Policy Act of 2005 – and the statute creating NOAA.
  • I covered Trump from the day he was sworn in, with most of my time spent in Congress. And I’ve kept tabs with some in his braintrust over the years. So I can tell you confidently: expect the unexpected, and don’t count on your permits.

2. Money and time – Biden agencies are (predictably) starting to get rules out the door to wrap up whatever they can before Trump takes office.

  • The EPA just finished its methane flaring rule and the BLM put out a new proposed sage grouse strategy. Heatmap previously reported the IRA’s hydrogen tax credit will also get this treatment.
  • I’d expect the Energy Department to also get as many contracts and dollars out of the door so they can’t be impounded or rescinded. My vibe checks with lobbyist friends indicate they believe all bets are off once Trump 2.0 begins.
  • Are there any regulations or financing decisions you’re watching for in the final days? Give us a holler.

3. California counter-weight – California regulators just approved updates to their fuel standard that will accelerate adoption of lower-emissions cars.

  • The state is also convening a special legislative session to consider additional measures to prepare for legal and regulatory challenges from Trump 2.0, including climate. The last Trump administration had sought to undo the state’s EPA waiver allowing stricter vehicle emissions standards than federal ones.

4. Compensation fund – East Coast states this week announced they would select BrownGreer and the Carbon Trust to help create a compensation fund for fishermen impacted by offshore wind.

  • The fund is intended to give money that can offset the costs of any reduction in fish stocks or fishing periods from developing offshore wind.
  • Commercial and recreational fishing entrepreneurs will help manage the fund. So will offshore wind companies, though a list of industry participants has not been announced.

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Spotlight

How Bad Information Is Breaking the Energy Transition

Why an attorney for Dominion Voting Systems is now defending renewables companies.

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My biggest takeaway of this year? Bad information is breaking the energy transition – and the fake news is only getting more powerful.

Across the country, we’re seeing solar, wind, and battery storage projects grind to a halt thanks to activism powered by fears of health and safety risks, many of which are unfounded, unproven, exaggerated, or conspiratorial in nature. There are some prominent examples, like worries about offshore wind and whales, but I’ve spent a large chunk of The Fight’s lifespan so far investigating a few crucial case studies, from wildfire fears confronting battery developers in California to cancer concerns curtailing a crucial transmission line in New Jersey. To tell you the honest truth, it is difficult to quantify just how troubling this issue is for the industry.

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Hotspots

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A look at 2024’s most notorious conflicts in the energy transition.

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Alright, friends. It’s time for a special edition of The Fight’s Hotspots, where we walk you through what we believe were the five most important project conflicts of the year. We decided this list based on the notoriety of the fight within the renewables sector as well as whether our reporting found it to be significant for the entire industry. And we included the opposition scores for these projects based on our internal Heatmap Pro data to help you better understand whether these fights were flukes or quite predictable.

We hope this helps you all in this, errhmm, trying time for developers right now.

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Q&A

Trump and the Keystonization of Renewable Energy

A conversation with Devin Hartman of R Street

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Heatmap Illustration/Courtesy Devin Hartman

Today’s special Q&A is with an old source of mine, Devin Hartman, energy and environment policy director for the conservative D.C. think tank R Street.

When I used to cover Congress, Devin was one of the few climate-minded conservatives willing to offer a candid, principled take on what could happen in that always deliberative body. I decided for our year-end edition to ask him a lot of questions, including an important one: will Trump make it easier or more difficult to permit solar and wind projects?

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