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Q&A

The Renewable Energy Investor Optimistic About the Future

A conversation with Mary King, a vice president handling venture strategy at Aligned Capital

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Today’s conversation is with Mary King, a vice president handling venture strategy at Aligned Capital, which has invested in developers like Summit Ridge and Brightnight. I reached out to Mary as a part of the broader range of conversations I’ve had with industry professionals since it has become clear Republicans in Congress will be taking a chainsaw to the Inflation Reduction Act. I wanted to ask her about investment philosophies in this trying time and how the landscape for putting capital into renewable energy has shifted. But Mary’s quite open with her view: these technologies aren’t going anywhere.

The following conversation has been lightly edited and abridged for clarity.

How do you approach working in this field given all the macro uncertainties?

It’s a really fair question. One, macro uncertainties aside, when you look at the levelized cost of energy report Lazard releases it is clear that there are forms of clean energy that are by far the cheapest to deploy. There are all kinds of reasons to do decarbonizing projects that aren’t clean energy generation: storage, resiliency, energy efficiency – this is massively cost saving. Like, a lot of the methane industry [exists] because there’s value in not leaking methane. There’s all sorts of stuff you can do that you don’t need policy incentives for.

That said, the policy questions are unavoidable. You can’t really ignore them and I don’t want to say they don’t matter to the industry – they do. It’s just, my belief in this being an investable asset class and incredibly important from a humanity perspective is unwavering. That’s the perspective I’ve been taking. This maybe isn’t going to be the most fun market, investing in decarbonizing things, but the sense of purpose and the belief in the underlying drivers of the industry outweigh that.

With respect to clean energy development, and the investment class working in development, how have things changed since January and the introduction of these bills that would pare back the IRA?

Both investors and companies are worried. There’s a lot more political and policy engagement. We’re seeing a lot of firms and organizations getting involved. I think companies are really trying to find ways to structure around the incentives. Companies and developers, I think everybody is trying to – for lack of a better term – future-proof themselves against the worst eventuality.

One of the things I’ve been personally thinking about is that the way developers generally make money is, you have a financier that’s going to buy a project from them, and the financier is going to have a certain investment rate of return, or IRR. So ITC [investment tax credit] or no ITC, that IRR is going to be the same. And the developer captures the difference.

My guess – and I’m not incredibly confident yet – but I think the industry just focuses on being less ITC dependent. Finding the projects that are juicier regardless of the ITC.

The other thing is that as drafts come out for what we’re expecting to see, it’s gone from bad to terrible to a little bit better. We’ll see what else happens as we see other iterations.

How are you evaluating companies and projects differently today, compared to how you were maybe before it was clear the IRA would be targeted?

Let’s say that we’re looking at a project developer and they have a series of projects. Right now we’re thinking about a few things. First, what assets are these? It’s not all ITC and PTC. A lot of it is other credits. Going through and asking, how at risk are these credits? And then, once we know how at risk those credits are we apply it at a project level.

This also raises a question of whether you’re going to be able to find as many projects. Is there going to be as much demand if you’re not able to get to an IRR? Is the industry going to pay that?

What gives you optimism in this moment?

I’ll just look at the levelized cost of energy and looking at the unsubsidized tables say these are the projects that make sense and will still get built. Utility-scale solar? Really attractive. Some of these next-gen geothermal projects, I think those are going to be cost effective.

The other thing is that the cost of battery storage is just declining so rapidly and it’s continuing to decline. We are as a country expected to compare the current price of these technologies in perpetuity to the current price of oil and gas, which is challenging and where the technologies have not changed materially. So we’re not going to see the cost decline we’re going to see in renewables.

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Spotlight

Democrats’ Growing Divide Over Data Centers

It’s pause vs pause-nots.

Data center protests.
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The American climate movement is beginning to look a lot like AI doomers versus the techno-optimists. It’s a dynamic that is winning local bans – and very little else for now.

On one side, you’ve got the left-leaning insurgent grassroots movement against data centers. In many cases this push is in the name of climate action and environmental justice, with activists citing the risks of pollution from gas-fired power and the potential for strain on existing electricity supplies. But in many, many other cases, this movement is decidedly not about climate action; instead it’s a movement addressing everything from energy prices and power over large corporations to AI use generally.

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The United States.
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1. Jefferson County, Alabama – A law firm is alleging that police in the city of Birmingham retaliated against a woman for suing developers of a data center. It might just be a wake-up call for data center developers.

  • Earlier this month, two individuals each with homes next to a proposed 300-megawatt data center in Birmingham filed a class action lawsuit against developer Nebius and the city of Birmingham. The lawsuit alleges “multiple independently fatal zoning violations” rooted in the city’s decision to let Nebius’s project move forward while also finalizing a moratorium, and claims the city has granted approvals in violation of the existing moratorium.
  • On May 18, days after the lawsuit was filed, lawyers for one of the individuals – Madelyn Greene – wrote the Birmingham Police Department stating officers pulled her over while driving through the proposed project site without any lawful reason. According to the letter, which I obtained and was first reported by AL.com, the officers claimed she was harassing police and started filming her while in her car. When she took her own phone out, the officers “abruptly broke off contact, returned to their vehicles, and left the scene.”
  • The letter concludes the traffic stop “timing and location are not coincidental.” It warned that any additional attempts by city police to “stop, detain, surveil, follow, photograph, intimidate, or otherwise harass” people involved in the lawsuit will result in requests for restraining orders.
  • Situations like these vividly illustrate the problems around security forces and large infrastructure projects. Activists fighting the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada were monitored for years. Conflicts between police and oil pipeline protestors are common and complaints about surveillance abound.
  • I feel compelled to say that data center developers and large tech firms would be wise to coordinate with local police on matters such as these – not just for their own benefit but for that of the public. It’s one thing when protesters are arrested at a hearing, but wholly another when members of the public are concerned voicing dissent will lead to retaliation. All that’ll do is aggravate the opposition further.
  • Nebius did not respond to a request for comment.

2. Mason County, Kentucky – This county is the site of yet another eminent domain debacle and I suggest you pay attention to it because it’s now represented by an outgoing congressman with nothing left to lose: Thomas Massie.

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What’s Bothering a Free Market Wonk About the Data Center Boom

A conversation with Travis Fisher of the Cato Institute.

Travis Fisher.
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This week’s conversation is with Travis Fisher, an energy policy analyst with the Cato Institute and one of my favorite people to chop it up with on Energy Twitter. I reached out to Fisher for a conversation about how he’s approaching the data center boom as a free market-minded wonk at a time when other figures on the so-called Right are calling for strict regulations on the sector. What I learned is that folks like Fisher are concerned about the scale of the buildout too, but their ideas and approaches wildly differ from the Tucker Carlsons of the world.

As always, our conversation was edited for length and clarity.

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