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One of the most important pieces of the Biden administration’s climate policy has arrived: On Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency issued new rules restricting climate pollution from coal-fired plants and natural gas plants that haven’t been built yet. The rules will eliminate more than a billion tons of greenhouse gas pollution by the middle of the century.
They are the long-awaited “stick” in the Biden administration’s carrots-and-sticks climate policy. So how do the rules work? Why do they emphasize carbon capture so much? And is this the end of coal in America? On this special episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse dig into the regulations and why they matter to American climate policy. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer is founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins is a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: Going all the way back to the Bush era, the coal industry and power industry have been telling us over and over and over again that carbon capture is the solution to retain coal plants and and gas plants without emitting CO2.
We’ve had demonstration projects at scale, for exactly that technology, in the United States and in Canada. We have enacted — largely at the behest of those interests — extensive subsidies for carbon capture, $85 per ton of CO2 captured and stored under the 45Q tax credit that was extended and expanded by the Inflation Reduction Act. We are investing, I think, over $4 billion in building CO2 network infrastructure to help create trunk lines that could capture CO2, accept CO2 injections and take them to where they can be stored. We’re investing in demonstration or initial buildout of CO2 storage basins. And we’re investing in demonstrations of carbon capture across a variety of industries through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
So like, all of the money is there from the government in response to the argument from the industry that this is the way forward. And now what EPA is doing is saying, “Okay, it’s time to go. You’ve got to actually do it.” And so they’re, of course, now going to flip the tune and say, “No, no, no, no, no, we can’t do that. We can’t do that. It’s not possible.”
Robinson Meyer: Yesterday, the Edison Electric Institute — which has the current CEO Dan Brouillette, who was the Trump administration’s Energy Secretary. The Edison Electric Institute is the trade association of U.S. shareholder-owned electric utilities, and so if you have a privately owned utility, it probably belongs to EEI. He put out a statement saying: “While we appreciate and support EPA’s work to develop a clear, continued path for the transition to cleaner resources, we are disappointed that the agency did not address the concerns we raised about carbon capture and storage. CCS is not yet ready for full scale, economy wide deployment, nor is there sufficient time to permit, finance, and build the CCS infrastructure needed for compliance by 2032.”
And I just want to point out here — Heatmap will continue to cover, obviously, these conversations about CCS. But I do want to just point out that, as you were saying, for decades, the utility industry has been telling us that CCS is so close. They’re so ready for primetime on it. They are just, they’re desperate to install CCS. This is the answer. Clean coal, clean natural gas, they’re going to do it. And now the EPA has been, you know, cowabunga it is, or you know, eff it, we ball, on CCS, right? And now that EPA is like, “Okay, it’s time to play,” they’re not coming out. They’re scared. They’re hiding at home.
I just want to highlight this dynamic because I think it is absolutely core to the whole thing. And no matter what convoluted legal arguments we are going to be subjected to over the next five years as this thing winds through the courts — hopefully less time — there’s just a central tension here, which is that the EPA has ostensibly given the utility industry what it has been asking for decades and decades, which is an excuse to do the wide-scale deployment of CCS, largely at taxpayer expense. And the utility industry doesn’t want to do it.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by…
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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Why America’s environmental institutions should embrace a solutions mindset
Innovation has always been core to the American story — and now, it is core to any story that successfully addresses climate. The International Energy Agency estimates that 35% to 46% of the emissions reductions we’ll need by 2050 will come from technologies that still require innovation in order to scale.
Yet there’s a gap between what society urgently needs and what our institutions are built to do. Environmentalism, especially, must evolve from a movement that merely protects to a movement that also builds and innovates.
As an environmentalist, I am profoundly grateful for the hard-won battles of the environmental movement over the past 50 years; fighting pollution, toxicity, deforestation, and community harm has been essential to the health of our families and ecosystems. Yet in this moment, we need to complement these efforts by cultivating a new generation of environmental organizations who have the drive to build in their DNA.
Today’s environmental leaders can drive innovation forward, or they can stand in its way.
I founded Elemental Impact 15 years ago to invest in bold entrepreneurs who are building and scaling the next generation of critical technologies. As a nonprofit investor, we pair catalytic capital with deep expertise to create lasting environmental and local impact, supported by philanthropic and government funders. We recycle any returns back into our nonprofit to invest in future companies.
We’ve seen a common pattern in many discussions where philanthropic and environmental priorities are being set: Most nonprofit organizations remain structurally oriented toward preventing harm — not innovating on solutions. The world needs vigorous efforts to speed and spread clean energy technology, and we must find a way to do this in partnership with traditional environmental protection.
Here’s an example of how the dynamics often play out today: One entrepreneur we know is building a carbon dioxide removal facility, and we’ve been partnering with her on community engagement. While she has seen strong support from local businesses, policymakers, and labor leaders, she has also encountered early resistance from one unexpected group: environmental advocates. “This experience has been eye-opening and disheartening,” the entrepreneur told me over gingerbread cookies. “I became an entrepreneur to change the world — and now I’m facing a barrier I didn’t expect.”
We see this story again and again as entrepreneurs trying to deploy new technologies face pushback from those with largely the same goal: to slow down and ultimately reverse global climate change while supporting human health and well-being.
For instance, my team recently engaged in a planning session with large environmental philanthropies to talk about the future of data centers. With global investments in data centers expected to reach nearly $7 trillion by 2030, we know that meeting their energy, water, and material needs — and the needs of the communities they’re in — will be essential. Yet the conversation focused solely on how to stop data centers from being built. Building new infrastructure at this scale requires solving for numerous complexities, and we need a strategy for community and company engagement that is just as nuanced — one that prioritizes local benefits and leverages the market momentum to accelerate clean energy and sustainable materials faster than would otherwise be possible.
This dynamic also shows up in policy designs that operate too slowly to keep up with the race to address climate change. At times, we see the environmental policy agenda working against environmental innovation. This has real consequences, in some cases doubling the cost of the very solutions we need to build.
There are many ways technological innovation can provide tangible benefits across both communities and the environment. Elemental’s investment in a geothermal company helped support a local university in creating an apprenticeship program in rural Utah, leading to good jobs and economic development while also providing clean power. This is an example of philanthropy, through our nonprofit investor model, working in concert with technology in a way that is highly catalytic.
Philanthropy has often stepped in to seed new movements, empower new leadership, and provide risk capital when there are market or policy challenges. However many funders we talk to are not yet leveraging philanthropic capital to shape markets, which is exactly what’s required to accelerate climate innovation.
The research backs this up. More than 90% of philanthropic leaders believe climate change will negatively affect the people and places they serve, according to a 2022 study by the Center for Effective Philanthropy. But less than 2% of foundation dollars have gone to advance climate solutions, per a separate analysis last year by Climateworks Foundation. And based on our conversations with researchers and funders in the space, we estimate that only a fraction of that goes to organizations that are focused on accelerating new technologies.
It’s important to remember that solar, batteries, and electric vehicles were once considered risky, untested, and controversial. Now they’re proven to be better, cheaper, and faster than their alternatives in large part due to philanthropic and government support in their early days. But to address today’s environmental challenges, those solutions are not enough. New breakthroughs in critical minerals, fertilizers, wildfire management, industrial efficiency, carbon utilization, next-generation energy systems, and so many more need the same catalytic support.
“Enhanced geothermal is only where it is today because of backing from philanthropy-funded initiatives that took risks where others didn’t,” Tim Latimer, the CEO of next-generation geothermal company Fervo Energy, an Elemental portfolio company, told us. This capital is particularly essential now, when government funding has been ripped away and hundreds of critical technologies are seeing their financing gap widen as they attempt to scale.
At Elemental, we work with influential philanthropists and foundations that are leading the way by funding innovation and new technology deployment. These organizations and others like them are the ones pushing the art of what’s possible with philanthropic capital and showing entrepreneurs that they are the solution — not the problem.
We know market interventions from philanthropy work. With catalytic capital, Elemental companies are 2.5x more likely to scale from early to late stage, and for every dollar we invest, our companies unlock an additional $100 of follow-on capital. Working every day with entrepreneurs, we have unique visibility into how innovations succeed, fail, or get blocked.
In the age of artificial intelligence, unprecedented technological change, and an affordability challenge brewing in the U.S. energy sector, we need leaders who understand the leverage points in technology and are finding creative opportunities to make the biggest environmental and social impact. We know that new technologies carry risk, and not all will drive social progress. But the way forward is to help shape and accelerate the ones that will contribute the most to the communities where they operate. That includes being a responsible participant in our changing climate.
This is the best time in history to have a front row seat to innovation. Magic can happen when entrepreneurs, philanthropy, government, corporate leaders, and communities come together to drive speed, scale, and impact. Let’s be bold and build.
Current conditions: Days after atmospheric rivers deluged the Pacific Northwest, similar precipitation is headed for Northern California, albeit with less than an inch of rain expected in the foothills of the Bay Area • Australia is facing a heatwave, temperatures hovering around 90 degrees Fahrenheit this week • Heavy rains threaten flash floods in Ghana, Togo, Benin, and southern Nigeria.
Three Senate Democrats considered top progressives announced Tuesday a probe into whether and how data centers are driving up residential electricity bills. In letters sent Monday to Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and three other companies, the lawmakers accused the server farms powering artificial intelligence software of “forcing utilities to spend billions of dollars to upgrade the power grid,” expenses then passed on to Americans “through the rates they charge all users of electricity,” The New York Times wrote. The senators — Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut — warned that ratepayers will be left holding the bag when the AI bubble bursts, a possibility Friday’s stock plunge (which Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin covered) has made investors all too aware of.
Opposing data centers is emerging as a touchstone political test on the left. On Tuesday afternoon, Senator Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist independent from Vermont, posted a video on his X account in which he argued that “a moratorium” on building new data centers nationwide “will give democracy a chance to catch up, and ensure that the benefits of technology work for all of us, not just the 1%.” Polling suggests the political issue has populist appeal. Just 44% of Americans said they would support a data center built nearby in a September survey from Heatmap Pro.
The House of Representatives voted 215-209 Tuesday to advance the bipartisan permitting reform bill known as the SPEED Act, despite mounting opposition from Republicans to provisions meant to protect already-licensed projects from the type of legal assault the Trump administration has unleashed on offshore wind. Republican critics of the bill, including Maryland Congressman Andy Harris and New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew, vowed to vote against any legislation that included measures that might defend offshore turbine developers from Trump’s “total war on wind.”
Yet, “while the bill is alive for now, the outcome casts a pall over the prospects for any permitting deal this Congress,” as Heatmap’s Jael Holzman wrote last night, because “there is little shot of a grand deal on NEPA reform without exactly the sort of executive power restrictions Republican objectors feared.”
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The nationwide transformer shortage is getting worse as extreme weather destroys the existing grid and data centers demand the buildout of power infrastructure at a rate not seen in decades. A new Wall Street Journal feature on the manufacturers racing to churn out the big transformers featured a fresh statistic from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie that illustrates just how bad the problem has become. Orders for large transformers exceeded supply by about 14,000 units so far this year. The Biden administration made the transformer crisis worse by proposing — then revoking — a regulation to increase the energy efficiency of the equipment at the cost of requiring manufacturers to decide between investing in compliant assembly lines by 2027 or additional output to match today’s demand. The Trump administration has made the problem worse still by imposing strict trade tariffs on the very material transformers need most, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote.

In the race to build the nation’s first small modular reactor, there are startups that developed designs based on less-powerful models of existing light water reactors and startups that are pursuing next-generation technologies shrunken down to a tiny fraction of a normal atomic power plant’s size. Washington, D.C.-based Last Energy is doing both. The company, founded by the entrepreneur and nuclear podcaster Bret Kugelmass, started out by proposing to build 20-megawatt light water reactors in Europe, before embarking on a U.S. project after the Trump administration vowed to ease the way for new nuclear reactors. On Tuesday, in a sign of investors’ confidence in the new trans-Atlantic direction, Last Energy announced a $100 million fundraising round. “For the first half a decade that I was telling people I was doing nuclear, I had to convince them, ‘Hey, here’s why nuclear is important,’” Kugelmass told TechCrunch. “Now everyone just comes to us saying, ‘Oh yeah, of course nuclear is a key part of the solution.’ I’m like, okay, great, I’m glad everyone’s caught up now.” The company is among the 10 startups in the Department of Energy’s reactor pilot program, meant to speed up deployments of new technologies by bringing at least three to the atom-splitting phase of development by next July 4.
The fundraising news came as the Trump administration took yet another stake in a private minerals company. On Tuesday, the military announced a deal to take a 40% share of the nearly $8 billion mineral processing plant the South Korean industrial company Korea Zinc promised to build in Tennessee.
BlackRock’s retreat from sustainable investing has cost the world’s largest asset manager the business of at least two European pension funds. On Tuesday, the PME group, which manages more than $69 billion in retirement savings for Dutch workers in the metal and technologies sectors, said it had “decided to end our relationship with BlackRock,” the Financial Times reported. The move comes after the Dutch healthcare workers pension group PFZW withdrew about more than $16 billion from the financial giant, though its money-market funds are still under BlackRock’s management. It’s not just BlackRock facing backlash for its softening position on emissions. In February, the United Kingdom-based People’s Pension yanked nearly $38 billion from State Street, saying it was prioritizing “sustainability, active stewardship, and long-term value creation.”
For penguins, bad weather is good news. In a new study in Nature Geoscience, researchers from the University of Gothenburg showed that storms in the Southern Ocean that encircles Antarctica regulate the Earth’s climate by moving heat, carbon, and nutrients out in the world’s oceans. The effect amounts to what scientists called “a critical climate service” marked by “absorbing 75% of the excess heat generated by humans globally.”
Rob and Jesse catch up with Mark Fitzgerald, CEO of the closed-loop geothermal startup Eavor.
Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry has sharpened its drilling skills, extracting fossil fuels at greater depths — and with more precision — than ever before. What if there was a way to tap those advances to generate zero-carbon energy?
The Canadian company Eavor (pronounced “ever”) says it can do so. Its closed-loop geothermal system is already producing heat at competitive prices in Europe, and it says it will soon be able to drill deep enough to fuel the electricity system, too. It just opened a first-of-its-kind demonstration facility in Germany, which is successfully heating and powering the small hamlet of Geretsreid, Bavaria.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob and Jesse chat with Mark Fitzgerald, the president and CEO of Eavor, about how its new technology works, how it differs from other forms of advanced geothermal, and why Europe is a good test bed for heat-generating projects. We also chat about what Mark, who previously ran Petronas Canada, learned in his 35 years in the oil industry.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: So at the surface, this is a very limited footprint, right? It’s a fairly small power plant, and then underground, you’ve got this kilometer-scale heat exchanger effectively that you’ve built without fracturing, but with a lot of drilling involved, right? So the key, I think, for making that work is to continually advance the economics of drilling.
What is Eavor’s strategy there for bringing down the cost of drilling these closed loops so that they become cost competitive despite the large amount of total miles drilled that you have to — or kilometers drilled that you have to put down?
Mark Fitzgerald: That’s a great point, Jesse, and I would reinforce that drilling technology, or drilling efficiency, has been something that’s been talked about and understood across the globe for a hundred-plus years. So we are not creating a new method of drilling. We are not looking for something that hasn’t been already done across any of the unconventional players in North America, any of the big drilling or service companies or operators around the globe.
What we are doing is changing the trajectory, and changing the application of that drilling methodology to create the underground radiator, as you would talk about. My background — I spent 36 years in oil and gas, a great proportion of that in the unconventional space before I had this amazing opportunity to join Eavor. And so I understand how, through sound engineering, sound geoscience, proper modeling, that cost compression will occur. One of the best examples that I point to is, we completed six laterals — so six of these horizontal wells, or these forks, at a time, connected them in Geretsreid, our first facility in Germany. The fourth and fifth laterals were done at 50% of the cost of the first two. And so already, in moving from lateral one to lateral six, we’ve seen a reduction of 50% in the cost structure.
The second is that in terms of pace of drilling, the faster you drill the lower costs you incur. The pace of drilling for us on those fifth and six laterals was three times what it was on lateral one and two.
Mentioned:
Previously on Shift Key: Why Geothermal Is So Hot Right Now
Jesse’s upshift; Rob’s downshift.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.