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Inside season 2, episode 3 of Shift Key.
It’s time to start talking about a big year for climate politics and policy: 2025. No matter who wins this fall’s elections, next year’s executive and legislative climate policy will be huge for America’s decarbonization strategy. Congress is all but guaranteed to negotiate over key parts of the country’s tax code, and whoever controls the White House will have to finalize the Inflation Reduction Act’s last few big programs.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob are joined by Josh Freed, who leads Third Way’s climate and energy program, to game out the most likely scenarios. If Trump wins with a Republican Congress, will they repeal the Inflation Reduction Act? What if Trump wins but Democrats take the House? And what would Kamala Harris do with a trifecta? Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: Where climate policy succeeds the most, in my view, is where it sits in an intersectional role — where it is not climate policy as purely climate policy, but rather climate policy as something that is tied to a broader agenda. And one that — as you articulated, Josh — at least in rhetoric, is something that is bipartisan. It’s a prior set of priorities, shared across the political divide, to see American companies do well, and to see America play a strong role in the world stage. I think the details of that are obviously very important, and there’s a lot of different ways that could go.
Josh Freed: And Jesse, one other point I think you made that’s really important is, because of the transformative nature of the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and even Justice40 and everything else that we’ve seen, climate policy is an underpinning of so much of whatever the next Democratic administration, a Harris administration, would do that, rhetorically, it may not even be mentioned that much. We didn’t hear Kamala Harris discuss climate change extensively last night in her remarks. However, when she talks about security, when she talks about economic opportunity, when she talks about the strength of the American economy, it is driven in by what we are seeing happen and what happens next on all of the mechanisms that the Inflation Reduction Act created, and on the potential for us to get permitting reform, whether it’s later this year or next year.
It’s this very interesting next step for us in climate and clean energy policy, where it is just implicit that it’s happening rather than something that has to be explicitly talked about as much politically. And so, you know, this isn’t something where we necessarily need to have a President Harris marching around the country, talking about it explicitly, because people are going to see and feel that it’s going to look different, and therefore it can be weaved into whatever new way forward she is describing because people will see their communities looking and feeling differently than they did four, six, eight, 10 years ago. If I think of some of the other components that we were talking about — permitting reform gets unlocked. Some of the challenges that we’re seeing because deployment takes a little while, because delivery of grants takes a little while, get unstuck even more. And she provides that broader vision.
And I think that one of the things is that, Joe Biden, when he ran in 2020, talked about himself in somewhat the context of a transitional figure. And he bridged the old economy and a different way of doing things than we do in 2022, 2024, with what the future looks like. And Kamala really is positioning herself as a new generation and next chapter of leadership. And so if you see the benefits of it — and she talks about what’s happening within some sort of broader context, which I think is going to have more of a care economy focus, a very muscular American foreign policy focus — again, it’s going to be implicit in all of that, and there will be evidence of it.
Robinson Meyer: I guess I feel like I can imagine this as a campaign line, coming out maybe later in October, as the Fed’s going to cut, inflation should hopefully moderate, the labor market hopefully won’t soften too much, and then you can start to make an affirmative case about the economy. I think one issue that Harris has had broadly here is that she has to signal that she understands that voters are not happy with the current state of the economy.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Antenna Group helps you connect with customers, policymakers, investors, and strategic partners to influence markets and accelerate adoption. Visit antennagroup.com to learn more.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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Did a battery plant disaster in California spark a PR crisis on the East Coast?
Battery fire fears are fomenting a storage backlash in New York City – and it risks turning into fresh PR hell for the industry.
Aggrieved neighbors, anti-BESS activists, and Republican politicians are galvanizing more opposition to battery storage in pockets of the five boroughs where development is actually happening, capturing rapt attention from other residents as well as members of the media. In Staten Island, a petition against a NineDot Energy battery project has received more than 1,300 signatures in a little over two months. Two weeks ago, advocates – backed by representatives of local politicians including Rep. Nicole Mallitokis – swarmed a public meeting on the project, getting a local community board to vote unanimously against the project.
According to Heatmap Pro’s proprietary modeling of local opinion around battery storage, there are likely twice as many strong opponents than strong supporters in the area:
Heatmap Pro
Yesterday, leaders in the Queens community of Hempstead enacted a year-long ban on BESS for at least a year after GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, other local politicians, and a slew of aggrieved residents testified in favor of a moratorium. The day before, officials in the Long Island town of Southampton said at a public meeting they were ready to extend their battery storage ban until they enshrined a more restrictive development code – even as many energy companies testified against doing so, including NineDot and solar plus storage developer Key Capture Energy. Yonkers also recently extended its own battery moratorium.
This flurry of activity follows the Moss Landing battery plant fire in California, a rather exceptional event caused by tech that was extremely old and a battery chemistry that is no longer popular in the sector. But opponents of battery storage don’t care – they’re telling their friends to stop the community from becoming the next Moss Landing. The longer this goes on without a fulsome, strident response from the industry, the more communities may rally against them. Making matters even worse, as I explained in The Fight earlier this year, we’re seeing battery fire concerns impact solar projects too.
“This is a huge problem for solar. If [fires] start regularly happening, communities are going to say hey, you can’t put that there,” Derek Chase, CEO of battery fire smoke detection tech company OnSight Technologies, told me at Intersolar this week. “It’s going to be really detrimental.”
I’ve long worried New York City in particular may be a powder keg for the battery storage sector given its omnipresence as a popular media environment. If it happens in New York, the rest of the world learns about it.
I feel like the power of the New York media environment is not lost on Staten Island borough president Vito Fossella, a de facto leader of the anti-BESS movement in the boroughs. Last fall I interviewed Fossella, whose rhetorical strategy often leans on painting Staten Island as an overburdened community. (At least 13 battery storage projects have been in the works in Staten Island according to recent reporting. Fossella claims that is far more than any amount proposed elsewhere in the city.) He often points to battery blazes that happen elsewhere in the country, as well as fears about lithium-ion scooters that have caught fire. His goal is to enact very large setback distance requirements for battery storage, at a minimum.
“You can still put them throughout the city but you can’t put them next to people’s homes – what happens if one of these goes on fire next to a gas station,” he told me at the time, chalking the wider city government’s reluctance to capitulate on batteries to a “political problem.”
Well, I’m going to hold my breath for the real political problem in waiting – the inevitable backlash that happens when Mallitokis, D’Esposito, and others take this fight to Congress and the national stage. I bet that’s probably why American Clean Power just sent me a notice for a press briefing on battery safety next week …
And more of the week’s top conflicts around renewable energy.
1. Queen Anne’s County, Maryland – They really don’t want you to sign a solar lease out in the rural parts of this otherwise very pro-renewables state.
2. Logan County, Ohio – Staff for the Ohio Power Siting Board have recommended it reject Open Road Renewables’ Grange Solar agrivoltaics project.
3. Bandera County, Texas – On a slightly brighter note for solar, it appears that Pine Gate Renewables’ Rio Lago solar project might just be safe from county restrictions.
Here’s what else we’re watching…
In Illinois, Armoracia Solar is struggling to get necessary permits from Madison County.
In Kentucky, the mayor of Lexington is getting into a public spat with East Kentucky Power Cooperative over solar.
In Michigan, Livingston County is now backing the legal challenge to Michigan’s state permitting primacy law.
On the week’s top news around renewable energy policy.
1. IRA funding freeze update – Money is starting to get out the door, finally: the EPA unfroze most of its climate grant funding it had paused after Trump entered office.
2. Scalpel vs. sledgehammer – House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled Republicans in Congress may take a broader approach to repealing the Inflation Reduction Act than previously expected in tax talks.
3. Endangerment in danger – The EPA is reportedly urging the White House to back reversing its 2009 “endangerment” finding on air pollutants and climate change, a linchpin in the agency’s overall CO2 and climate regulatory scheme.