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Rob and Jesse digest the Ways and Means budget bill live on air, alongside former Treasury advisor Luke Bassett.

The fight over the Inflation Reduction Act has arrived. After months of discussion, the Republican majority in the House is now beginning to write, review, and argue about its plans to transform the climate law’s energy tax provisions.
We wanted to record a show about how to follow that battle. But then — halfway through recording that episode — the Republican-controlled House Ways and Means Committee dropped the first draft of its proposal to gut the IRA, and we had to review it on-air.
We were joined by Luke Bassett, a former senior advisor for domestic climate policy at the U.S. Treasury Department and a former senior staff member at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. We chatted about the major steps in the reconciliation process, what to watch next, and what to look for in the new GOP draft. Shift Key is hosted by Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University, and Robinson Meyer, Heatmap’s executive editor.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Jesse Jenkins: Let’s come back to this as a negotiation. This is the first salvo from the House. What does this tell you about where we go from here? Is this a floor? Could it get worse? Is it likely to get better as the lobbying kicks off in earnest by various industries threatened by these changes, and they try to peel things back? What do you think happens next?
Luke Bassett: If you run with the horror movie analogy here, this is scary. I think a lot of people, especially in any energy startups or folks who have been penciling out deals, to start really lining up new projects — or even folks looking for a new EV to buy are suddenly going to have to totally rethink what the next few years look like.
And, you know, whether or not they want to build a factory, buy a car, or have to switch from an electric heat pump to a whale oil burning stove. Who knows? That said, there are champions for each of these in very different ways in the Senate. There are lobbyists who —
Jenkins: — in the House, too.
Bassett: Exactly. There will be lobbyists weighing in. And I think it matters to really think through … I think we’ve been faced with gigantic uncertainty since January. And there’s a part where companies all across the energy sector are looking at this text as we speak and thinking, whoa, I didn’t sign up for this. And to combine this with tariffs, to combine it with the cuts to other federal programs in the other committees’ jurisdictions, it is just a nearly impossible outlook for building new projects. And I bet a bunch of people, CEOs and otherwise, are thinking, I wish Joe Manchin were back in the Senate. But you know, it is what it is.
Robinson Meyer: I will say that it could get worse from here because they will be negotiating with the House Freedom Caucus and with various other conservative House members. And they’ll also be negotiating against the president’s wishes, which is that this move and get done as soon as possible. And so when I talked to Senator John Curtis, Republican of Utah, who’s a supporter of the IRA, or wants to see it extended in large part, and I asked him questions like, what happens if Republicans really go to work in the House on the IRA and then it gets sent to the Senate? One dynamic we’ve already seen during this Congress is that te House Republican Caucus in this Congress is unusually functional and unusually strategic, and has been unusually good at passing relatively extreme and aggressive policy and then jamming the Senate with it.
And unlike what has happened in the past, which is the House Republican Caucus can’t really do anything, so the Senate passes a far more moderate policy, sends it to the House and dares the House to shut things down. This time the House, if folks remember back in March, the House passed a fairly aggressive budget and kicked it to the Senate and then dared the Senate to shut down the government, and ultimately the Senate decided to keep the government open.
I asked Curtis what happens if they do the same with the IRA. What happens if they really go to task on the IRA? They pass fairly aggressive cuts to it and they send it to the Senate. And his answer was, well, I don’t think the House is going to do that. I don’t think a bill that really savages the IRA could pass the House.
We’ll see, but I just don’t think there’s any floor here. I think there’s no floor for how bad this gets. And I think I just don’t, you know … Before we went into the administration, there was a lot of confidence that the Trump administration and the new Republican majority and the Congress was not going to do anything to substantially make the business environment worse. We’ve discovered there does seem to be a degree of tariffs that will make them squeal and pull back, but we actually haven’t found that in legislature yet.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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The SPEED Act faces near-certain opposition in the Senate.
The House of Representatives has approved the SPEED Act, a bill that would bring sweeping changes to the nation’s environmental review process. It passed Thursday afternoon on a bipartisan vote of 221 to 196, with 11 Democrats in favor and just one Republican, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, against.
Thursday’s vote followed a late change to the bill on Wednesday that would safeguard the Trump administration’s recent actions to pull already-approved permits from offshore wind farms and other renewable energy projects.
Prior to that tweak, the bill would have limited the Trump administration’s ability to alter or revoke a federal permitting decision after the fact. The new version, adopted to secure votes from Republican representatives in Maryland and New Jersey, carves out an exception for agency actions taken between January 20 and the day the law takes effect.
"Last-minute changes to the SPEED Act undercut the bill’s intent to provide certainty to American business,” Rich Powell, the CEO of the Clean Energy Buyers Association said in a press release after the bill passed. “We hope the Senate will now take this language and strengthen those protections for existing and new projects needed to maintain grid reliability and meet growing electricity demand.”
At a high level, the SPEED Act would hasten federal permitting by restricting the evidence that federal agencies consider during the environmental review process and limiting the amount of time a court can deliberate over challenges to federal decisions. It would also disallow courts from vacating permits or issuing injunctions against projects if it finds that a federal agency violated NEPA. The changes would apply to permits of all kinds, including for oil and gas drilling, solar and wind farms, power lines, and data centers.
Environmental groups were generally against the bill. “Far from helping build the clean energy projects of the future, the SPEED Act will only result in an abundance of contaminated air and water, dirty projects, and chronic illnesses with fewer opportunities to hold polluters accountable in court,” Stephen Sciama, senior legislative council for Earthjustice Action, said in a press release on Thursday.
But proponents, such as the conservative energy group Clearpath Action, argue the bill will enable American industry to “invest and build with confidence” by cutting unnecessary red tape, improving coordination across agencies, and setting clearer rules and timelines for judicial review.
In House floor testimony on Thursday morning, Republican Bruce Westerman of Arkansas, the SPEED Act’s lead sponsor, said the bill had the backing of more than 375 industry groups and businesses, and bipartisan support in both the House and Senate. “The SPEED act will deliver the energy and infrastructure Americans need,” he said.
The bill lost at least one significant industry supporter after Wednesday’s changes, however. The American Clean Power Association, which had previously joined the American Petroleum Institute and others in a letter urging the House to pass the bill, withdrew its support, calling the new language a “poison pill” that “injects permit uncertainty, and creates a pathway for fully permitted projects to be canceled even after the Act’s passage.”
The Solar Energy Industries Association also denounced the bill’s passage.
Contrary to Westerman’s assertion, the bill’s fate in the Senate is far from certain. “Even if the House passes this bill today, it is going nowhere in the Senate,” Democratic Representative Jared Huffman of California asserted on the floor on Thursday. “What a missed opportunity to tackle a serious issue that Democrats were very interested in working on in good faith.”
Some Senate Democrats came out in opposition of the bill even before the late-breaking amendments. Senators Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico told my colleague Jael Holzman that the bill did not do enough to ensure the buildout of transmission and affordable clean energy, but that they “will continue working to pass comprehensive permitting reform that takes real steps to bring down electricity costs.”
Some see getting the SPEED Act through the House as merely a starting point for a more comprehensive and fair permitting deal. Democratic Representative Adam Gray of California told Politico’s Joshua Siegel Thursday that he was voting in favor of the bill despite the last minute changes due to his faith that the Senate will hammer out a version that provides developers of all energy stripes the certainty they need.
His Californian colleague Representative Scott Peters, on the other hand, voted against the bill, but committed to getting a deal done with the Senate. “We need to get permitting reform done in this Congress,” he said on the House floor Thursday.
Federal energy regulators directed the country’s largest grid to make its rules make sense.
Federal energy regulators don’t want utilities and electricity market rules getting in the way of data centers connecting directly to power plants.
That was the consensus message from both Republican and Democratic commissioners on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Thursday, when it issued its long-awaited order on co-location in PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest electricity market, covering the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.
The question is a holdover from last year, when Amazon struck a deal with independent power producer Talen Energy to co-locate an Amazon Web Services data center with the Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. Amazon eventually amended the deal to a more traditional power purchase agreement after failing to win regulatory approval for a behind-the-meter arrangement. Constellation, which owns a number of nuclear power plants in the PJM territory, had asked FERC to force PJM to adopt co-location rules and prevent what it saw as utilities obstructing co-location projects.
More broadly, though, the dispute is between independent power plants and their owners and utilities who build and operate the transmission grid. The latter want the former to essentially pay full freight for grid services for co-located power plants, even if they are largely or exclusively serving a single customer — such as, let’s say, a data center. Even co-located loads still incur substantial grid costs, utilities have argued, which should be paid for in their entirety.
Co-location has become attractive lately as a way to get data centers online faster and limit expensive grid upgrades that could drive up costs for everyone on the grid. Up until now, though, PJM didn’t really have a way to determine the distribution of costs and responsibilities when some or all of a new demand source is served by a co-located generator — and it wasn’t really in a particular rush to set one up, FERC said.
“The Commission finds that PJM’s tariff does not appear to sufficiently address the rates, terms and conditions of service that apply to co-location arrangements,” FERC said in its order. “The absence of this information may leave generators and load unable to determine what steps they can take to set up co-location arrangements of various configurations, and how to do so in an acceptable way.”
The commission was unanimous in its order, showing that despite the increased partisanship of regulatory politics in Donald Trump’s Washington, FERC is still operating under its traditional consensus-based approach. The consensus also shows the high level of dissatisfaction across the political spectrum with rising electricity prices, and specifically with PJM, which has combined rising prices with a clogged interconnection process and concerns about reliability.
“If a new large load wants to connect directly with a power plant and operate in a way that lowers grid costs, we should let it. If the current rules don’t let this work in a way that’s fair for everyone,” said Commissioner David Rosner, a Democrat. “We should change those rules so we can deliver the savings that consumers need and ensure reliable electricity for everybody.”
In its order, the commission asked PJM to come up with new arrangements that will allow transmission costs to scale with actual usage of the transmission system.
To do so, the new rules will have to reflect the actual usage of the transmission system of a co-located data center or other large load, Rosner explained.
He gave the example of a 1,000-megawatt data center co-located with a new 900-megawatt power plant. Its draw from the grid would be 100 megawatts, but “under PJM status quo rules,” Rosner said, “the data center needs to take the full 1,000 megawatts of front-of-meter transmission service from the grid, despite being directly connected to the co-located power plant.”
With the new options FERC is mandating PJM come up with, “the data center will now have the option to purchase what we call firm contract demand to take just 100 megawatts of firm service,” Rosner said, which will help cut costs across the board, he added.
The order also touches on the other hottest subject in grid policy today: flexibility. Because PJM will no longer be required to plan transmission or assure it has capacity for directly-connected loads, Rosner said, a big customer will have to accept the risk of being curtailed “if its usage exceeds what it’s contracted for in advance.”
The renewables industry cheered the order, especially the message that PJM needs to embrace flexibility and enable new generation and load to get online quickly.
“PJM needs to heed FERC’s message that grid flexibility enables speed, affordability, and reliability. As PJM proposes new rules to enable fast-tracking large load interconnections, it should prioritize the advanced energy technologies that are quickest to build and enable flexibility,” Jon Gordon, policy director at Advanced Energy United, said in a statement.
Independent power producers — i.e. the companies that own that power plants — also seemed happy with what the commission had to say. Talen, Constellation Energy, and Vistra Energy, all of whom have substantial footprints in PJM, saw their share prices rise at least 3% in early Thursday trading.
Thursday’s order comes as “large load interconnection” — i.e. data centers hooking up to the grid — dominates the energy regulatory discussion. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has asked FERC to come up with new rules early next year to speed up interconnection without jacking up consumer electricity prices. At the same time, PJM’s market is under stress, with another capacity auction this week resulting in yet another round of record-setting payments to generators — plus, this time, a failure to secure its typical margin over and above its minimum projected capacity needed to ensure future reliability.
PJM is working on its own new set of rules to connect large loads without large price impacts, a process that has so far resulted in not much, as the market’s board has yet to agree on a proposal to bring to FERC.
Beating up on PJM was a bipartisan affair Thursday morning.
“The order recognizes that PJM existing transmission services are insufficient in that they do not recognize the controllable nature of co-location arrangement’s,” the commission’s Republican Chair Laura Swett said in her statement at Thursday’s meeting.
“Flexible options for co-located load means carving a path for minimizing expensive and time-intensive network upgrades in circumstances where they’re not needed,” Commissioner Lindsay See, another Republican appointee, said.
Rosner’s statement echoed his colleagues’, arguing that the existing PJM rates and contracts are “unjust and unreasonable” because they do not “contain provisions addressing with sufficient clarity or consistency the rates, terms and conditions of service that apply to interconnection customers serving co-located load and eligible customers taking transmission service on behalf of co-located load.”
He also addressed the electricity market’s board directly: “In my opinion, PJM board, tomorrow, once you’ve read this order, would be a great day to file this with us,” Rosner said.
Current conditions: Flooding continues in the Pacific Northwest as the Pineapple Express atmospheric river dumps another 4 inches of rain on Oregon • A warm front with temperatures in the 60s Fahrenheit is heading for the Northeast • Temperatures in Paraguay are surging past 90 degrees.
The Trump administration plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Founded in 1960, The New York Times credited the center with “many of the biggest scientific advances in humanity’s understanding of weather and climate.” But in a post on X late Tuesday evening, Russell Vought, the director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, called the institute “one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country,” and said the administration would be “breaking up” its operations. It’s just the latest attempt by the White House to salt the Earth for federal climate science. As I wrote in August, the administration went as far as rewriting existing climate reports.
The latest capacity auction in PJM Interconnection, where power generators in the nation’s largest electricity market bid to provide power when the grid is especially stressed, ended at the legally-mandated cap of $333.44 per megawatt. This adds up to some $16.4 billion, a record-setting figure following the past two auctions, which brought in $16.1 billion and $14.7 billion.
This auction covers 2027 through 2028, and is the last that will be subject to the price cap. Despite the dizzying spending, it failed to procure enough power to meet PJM’s preferred 20% reserve margin for a severe demand event. The auction procured 145,777 megawatts of capacity, 6,623 megawatts short of the target, giving the grid a 14.8% margin. Much of that projected demand will come from data centers, which, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin wrote, have stressed the grid operator nearly to the breaking point.

Global coal use is set to start declining over the next five years as renewables and liquified natural gas gobble up its market share, the International Energy Agency projected in its latest annual forecast Wednesday. Demand is on track to inch upward 0.5% this year to a record 8,845 million tons before dropping 3% by 2030. Analysts warned Bloomberg that coal has remained “stubbornly strong” given high levels of consumption in China and India, and the Paris-based IEA cautioned that its five-year outlook “is subject to significant uncertainties that could impact it materially.”
Among the factors that look increasingly certain: That the Trump administration won’t allow any more U.S. coal plants to shut down. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy ordered the 730-megawatt TransAlta Centralia Generation in Washington to remain past its retirement at the end of this month, despite the state’s ban on coal operations. There’s just one big problem with that plan, as Matthew wrote last month. Old coal plants keep breaking down.
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Nuno Loureiro, a professor of nuclear science and the director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center, died Tuesday after being shot multiple times in his home near Boston the night before. Police statements made no mention of a suspect or motives, but Loureiro’s coveted position as one of the United States’ leading fusion scientists stoked speculation that the killing was politically motivated. Prominent influencers including the Trump adviser Laura Loomer falsely claimed that Loureiro, who was from Portugal, was Jewish and a vocal activist for the Israeli government. But The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli intelligence officials are investigating potential links between the murder and the Iranian government, though the newspaper cautioned that the assessment “has not yet been verified.” As of now, there is no clear evidence of who killed Loureiro or why. His death shocked the field of research in which he was lauded as a leader. A former colleague in Portugal who started working at the same laboratory with Loureiro years ago in Lisbon and “knew him well” told me, “Everyone here is in shock.”
Back in June, Matthew wrote a good piece explaining why the commonly used metric known as levelized cost of energy was “wrong.” Essentially, LCOE represents the energy output of a given source in terms of its construction and operating expenses — the lower the LCOE, the more efficient it is operationally. But the metric fails to capture all the other things that make an energy source valuable, such as the frequency with which it operates, how long it lasts, or how much infrastructure is required to make use of it. When Ontario Power Generation assessed the cost of building new nuclear reactors at its Darlington station, the LCOE showed solar and batteries costing far less. But a full systems analysis found that nuclear reactors would last longer, require fewer transmission upgrades, and would not need back-up generation. A report published this morning by the consultancy FTI has proposed two new metrics instead: Levelized value of energy, or LVOE, “which reflects the total value a project can create for its owners, and Levelized Net Benefit (LNB), which quantifies the broader value a project can deliver to the overall system.” While the LCOE for solar is roughly 40% lower than nuclear power in both Texas’ ERCOT grid system and PJM, a chart from the report shows that nuclear has an LVOE roughly 10 times greater.

Record rainfall last month has revived an ancient lake in an unusual place. When ice covered the Sierra Nevada between 128,000 and 186,000 years ago, a lake 100 miles long and 600 feet deep sat in what is today the Mojave Desert in eastern California. That lake, called Lake Manly, has returned. As the science site Phys.org reported, “now Death Valley, one of the hottest places on Earth and the lowest point in North America, has a desert lake framed by snow-capped mountains.” But the “marvel” is likely to disappear soon.