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These are the top contenders for the most climate-influential jobs.

If Donald Trump moves back to Washington, D.C., in January 2025, he won’t arrive alone. Though Trump’s first term was marked by a messy transition and bouts of political incompetence, Republican operatives have spent the past four years putting together a plan to hit the ground running if or when he returns — as well as a list of friendly names for plum positions in the would-be Trump administration. Many additional Republicans have quietly (and, often, not so quietly) spent the past few years auditioning for these top roles, typically by signaling their willingness to continue dismantling the regulatory and administrative states.
While nearly all positions in a Trump cabinet have at least some ability to limit or eliminate climate progress, here are some names circulating for the most influential departments.
The past is prologue when it comes to a future Trump administration, making Dan Brouillette an easy guess to head of the Department of Energy: His reappointment would mark a return to the post he left during the presidential transition in 2021.
But Secretary of Energy is nothing if not a competitive position, and Brouillette isn’t treating it like he’s a shoo-in, either. Since 2023, he’s served as the president and CEO of the Edison Electric Institute, a trade association for electric utilities that has taken a more tepid stance on climate policies during his tenure. He’s also spent plenty of time going on TV and speaking to the press against Biden’s (since overturned) pause in approving new export facilities for liquified natural gas — an industry he has history with but that falls well outside his purview EEI. The effect is more a performance for Trump than it is any sort of service for his organization’s members. Brouillette has also repeatedly insisted that the Trump administration won’t gut the Inflation Reduction Act, an oddly blasé attitude about legislation that has significantly benefited the utilities EEI represents.
Bernard McNamee, the author of the Department of Energy section of Project 2025, is another top choice for the DOE. One of the “most overtly political” people to ever be appointed to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, in the words of E&E News, McNamee has said that fossil fuels are “key to our prosperity” and that the renewable push amounts to “tyranny.” His chapter of Project 2025 calls for — among other things — closing the renewable energy offices at the DOE, eliminating energy efficiency standards for appliances, and refocusing the three National Labs run by DOE on “national security issues.”
If Trump doesn’t pick Doug Burgum for vice president, there is a strong chance there could be a home for him at the DOE instead. Many see the governor of North Dakota as a frontrunner for Energy Secretary, suspicions Burgum has reinforced by cozying up to Trump as a political surrogate, even warming up crowds at the candidate’s political rallies. While Burgum “at times [could] seem environmentally conscious” during his gubernatorial tenure, he’s recently shifted to more familiar Republican talking points on the oil and gas industry and reportedly helped connect Trump to would-be donors in the fossil fuel sectors, according to reporting by The New York Times. He has also informally advised the Trump campaign on energy policy.
There might also be a high-ranking position in the DOE for Texas oil and fracking magnate Harold Hamm, who was reportedly a finalist for the position back in 2016. Hamm, a conservative megadonor, briefly broke with Trump during the Republican primary but has since returned to fundraise for his campaign. Trump prizes loyalty, however, which is why Secretary Hamm might be more of a longshot; Hamm may return to being an informal advisor for the administration instead.
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem seems pretty solidly off the VP shortlist after making national headlines for admitting in her memoir that she killed a puppy, but she may yet fill a role in the administration that is less in the public spotlight. Interior wouldn’t be so far-fetched: Noem played an active part in slashing environmental protections in her state — something that ought to endear her to Trump — and she worked closely with Trump’s Secretary of the Interior to explore returning controversial firework shows to Mount Rushmore. In South Dakota, Noem also rolled the Department of Environment and Natural Resources into the Department of Agriculture and has been actively hostile to the build-out of renewable energy, going so far as to refuse to apply for IRA grant money — an action that signals her uncompromising commitment to the party’s political message to anyone watching.
If not Noem, it’s possible David Bernhardt could return to the position he held under the first Trump administration. He’s used his time out of national politics to promote better swamp management (that’s the metaphorical swamp, not literal swamps, such as the critical beachfront-adjacent wetlands he limited protections for while in office) and to push Trump’s plan to reinstate Schedule F — which will make it easier to fire employees that aren’t deemed loyal enough to the administration — declaring that his own agency had been “overwhelmingly liberal” during his tenure. Bernhardt has adopted skepticism of career civil servants as something of a pet cause, publishing a 2023 book called You Report to Me: Accountability for the Failing Administrative State and filing an amicus brief to the Supreme Court earlier this year that argued, “One would be naïve not to understand how policy drives the ‘science’ at an agency.”
Those familiar with Bernhardt’s thinking, though, see the former secretary as angling for a more ambitious post in a future Trump administration, such as director of the Office of Management and Budget. An OMB appointment would potentially put Bernhardt on a collision course with Russ Vought, another Schedule F proponent, which means that if the former Interior secretary’s apparent angling for a new office doesn’t pan out, he may end up back in a more familiar role.
Trump’s former ambassador to Portugal, George Glass, has also been floated in the Interior conversation. An Oregon businessman, Glass fits the bill as a Westerner — since 1949, just one Interior secretary has not been a resident or native of a state west of the Mississippi. He also sees eye-to-eye with Trump as a China hawk, and while he doesn’t have much of a climate record, he has been a steady donor whose loyalty could be rewarded again with a plum administrative position.
While the Department of Agriculture doesn’t have the same levers to pull as Interior or Energy, the USDA nevertheless oversees one of the most significant sources of planet-warming emissions in the United States. While the Biden administration’s USDA has explicitly pursued an “equitable and climate-smart food and agriculture economy,” the Heritage Foundation instead wants the agency to “play a limited role” that doesn’t “hinder food production or otherwise undermine efforts to meet consumer demand.”
J. D. Vance has emerged as one candidate to get that job done. The Hillbilly Elegy author-turned-Ohio-senator previously invested in an agriculture startup and has taken a particular interest in the farm bill, while at the same time boasts a 0% lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters. Vance’s name has also been in the hat for VP, and he’s certainly done his best to remain in Trump’s good graces, which could land him a secretary post if he doesn’t ultimately make the cut as a running mate.
There might be a better case, though, that this department ends up in the hands of Sid Miller. Currently serving as the Texas Agriculture Commissioner, Miller was reportedly on the shortlist for the position back in 2016. He has blamed weather-related power outages in his state on renewable intermittency, at one time writing, “to heck with green energy or climate change.” Miller is something of a firebrand, however, alienating even some within his own party, and he could struggle to garner the bipartisan support that will likely be necessary to win confirmation.
Though Trump initially avoided answering a question about the climate during the first presidential debate, he had talking points ready thanks to Andrew Wheeler, his former head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Trump seemingly referred to Wheeler as one of “my top environmental people,” suggesting that in addition to being an informal adviser to the campaign, Wheeler and his work at the EPA remain in high regard with Trump himself. While in the previous administration, Wheeler notably helped to roll back over 100 clean air, water, and environmental regulations.
Wheeler himself has been cagey about whether he’s auditioning for another Trump position, though — this spring, he joined the Holland & Hart law firm as a partner focused on federal affairs. If Wheeler decides to stay in the private sector, Trump might turn instead to Mandy Gunasekara, one of the primary architects of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the author of the especially concerning Project 2025 chapter on the EPA.
Gunasekara has bolstered the case for herself by describing how she would curtail the EPA’s powers, eliminate its enforcement office, and “update the 2009 endangerment finding” that greenhouse gases are a threat to public health and the environment — science that has been used as the backbone for the EPA’s climate change regulations for years. Gunasekara has also said that while she believes in human-caused climate change, planetary warming is “overstated” and erroneously claimed that scientific data shows “a mild and manageable climate change in the future.” That rhetoric puts her right in sync with her potential future boss.
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Properly known as “manufactured homes,” they’re extremely vulnerable to extreme heat.
When it gets too hot, the human body starts to cook. At 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit you begin sweating to maintain your core body temperature; by 95 degrees, you’re no longer able to shed heat through radiation alone, relying entirely on the mechanism of water evaporating from your skin. Once it’s 104 degrees out, your body stops working the way it should. By 120 degrees, if you don’t take drastic measures to cool and hydrate yourself immediately, you’re dead.
It’s still unusual for most parts of the U.S. to reach 120 degrees (though humidity and “wet bulb” temperature can reduce the effectiveness of sweating, making much cooler temperatures dangerous, too). The bad news, though, is that it’s not the outdoors you necessarily need to be all that worried about. Most people who die in heatwaves die inside.
Manufactured homes, also called mobile homes, are particularly lethal in extreme heat. During the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome, 20% of the 96 people who died in Oregon lived in such housing, according to an analysis by The Oregonian. In Phoenix in 2024, a full quarter of heat-related deaths occurred in mobile home parks, trailers, and RVs, which make up only 5% of the Valley’s housing stock. In Pima County, the rural region that encompasses Tucson, the share of deaths in the homes was even higher.
And yet last week, the House of Representatives approved a bill that could prevent the adoption of regulations that would help prevent future heat-related deaths in manufactured homes. The vote was the culmination of a nearly decade-long fight over who should regulate the construction of manufactured homes, which are crucial to solving the housing crisis and the primary route to low-income homeownership. It also lies at the crux of the debate over building out quick, cheap homes — the industry’s preference — versus investing in resilient construction practices with an eye on a hotter future.
H.R. 5184 looks, on its surface, like a common-sense affordability bill. Energy standards for manufactured homes have traditionally fallen under the purview of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which has not updated the regulations since 1994. In 2007, on a bipartisan vote, Congress passed a law directing the Department of Energy — which has more expertise in energy efficiency than HUD — to set new standards for manufactured homes, which the department (finally) issued in 2022, and which focus on increasing insulation and reducing air leaks.
Slammed as costly “red tape,” the standards were repeatedly held off from going into effect. H.R. 5184 is meant to ensure they never will. Indiana’s Republican Representative Erin Houchin, who authored the bill, claims that the regulations would increase the upfront cost of manufactured homes by “$10,000 to $15,000” over the existing HUD standards. (The DOE’s analysis of the 2022 rule put the added construction cost at between $627 and $4,438, depending on the size of the home and the climate zone.) Proponents of the bill also say it would streamline oversight of manufactured home energy efficiency standards by reverting regulatory authority to HUD alone and excluding the DOE from the rule-making process henceforth.
The bill passed the House with bipartisan support from every Republican and 57 Democrats, the latter group led by Massachusetts Representative Jake Auchincloss. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, which opposes the bill, Auchincloss reportedly used the word abundance “multiple times” when advocating for H.R. 5184 in a private meeting — an apparent reference to the Abundance Agenda, which pushes to remove regulatory roadblocks to progressive goals such as clean energy and affordable housing. (Auchincloss’ team did not respond to a request for comment, though in a letter to his Democratic colleagues, he described housing affordability as “a national problem that we should address with common-sense regulatory reform.”)
But “is the purpose of housing to keep us safe and well and to allow us to actually live our best lives, or is it something else?” Vivek Shandas, the founder of the Sustaining Urban Places Research Lab at Portland State University, asked me. “If housing is set up to keep us out of the elements, then what we’re essentially agreeing to when we’re cutting some of these safety precautions is exposing people to more of the elements,” he said.
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, an advocacy group, has stressed that H.R. 5184, which preserves the 30-year-old HUD standard, will increase the average annual energy bill by up to $475 for residents of new double-wide homes compared to what they would have paid under the 2022 rules. ACEEE estimates that the break-even point for monthly net savings to recoup the added initial down payment, taxes, and fees for a single-wide home in the South would have been just over a year, and just over four years for a double-wide in the same region. “My hope is that U.S. senators can do math better than, apparently, a majority of their House colleagues and recognize that energy savings significantly exceed the cost of insulation and air sealing,” Mark Kresowik, the senior policy director at ACEEE, told me.
Manufactured home owners already spend an outsized amount of their income on energy costs, and higher energy bills could push residents to avoid turning on their air conditioning during heatwaves, putting their health and potentially their lives at risk. It is “absolutely correct” that H.R. 5184 could result in more mobile home park deaths as a result, Kresowik said.
Cooling manufactured homes can be challenging in general, though. “We’re finding that in some of these [existing] manufactured homes on a 105-degree day, temperatures will be upward of 120, 125 degrees inside,” Shandas said — the threshold of human survival. That’s partially because, unlike site-built homes, mobile homes are often placed on asphalt, which “radiates that heat at night and keeps the temperatures inside the homes up.”
“When the sun rises the next morning,” Shandas explained, “it continues to heat up,” creating a deadly compounding effect.
Even residents who can afford to run an air conditioning unit around the clock at full blast can be in trouble in poorly insulated homes. AC frequently “doesn’t have the horsepower to reduce [indoor temperatures] down to less than 85 degrees, so it often tends to hang around 90 inside on a 100-degree day,” Shandas said. Particularly for the older adult population, some 3.2 million of whom live in manufactured and mobile homes, that is enough to be dangerous.
Esther Sullivan, an expert on manufactured homes at the University of Colorado Denver and the author of Manufactured Insecurity: Mobile Home Parks and Americans’ Tenuous Right to Place, emphasized that H.R. 5184 will affect only the construction of new homes. The most vulnerable live in mobile homes built before the HUD codes instituted in 1976, and which may have as little as an inch of separation between the inside and the outdoors. (One resident Shandas interviewed in Northeast Portland told him that he could tell how fast the wind was blowing when he was inside with his windows closed — it was that drafty.)
As supporters of H.R. 5184 — like the Manufactured Housing Institute, a trade organization that lobbied in support of the bill — point out, most home manufacturers are already voluntarily meeting or exceeding the 2022 DOE standards. (The MHI pointed me toward its statement in support of the bill when I reached out for comment.) Andrew Rumbach, the co-lead of the climate and communities program at the Urban Institute, which does not take an official side for or against the bill, told me that “even if the current HUD standards were not updated and you purchased a manufactured home today, you’re far more safe in an extreme heat event compared to someone who lives in one of those older, potentially dilapidated homes.”
Sullivan also cheered the advancements in new manufactured home construction. Factory-produced housing, even more than site-based homes, can incorporate “extreme innovations in things like energy efficiency,” she said. But H.R. 5184 would be a “major step backward,” she went on, arguing that it won’t even address the housing abundance goals touted by its supporters. “The problem with producing more housing is allowing more housing to be located,” she said. “It’s zoning.” Many suburban and metropolitan areas, for example, forbid mobile home parks from being sited within their borders.
Preventing mobile home deaths in heatwaves will require attention to the existing housing stock, which needs expensive weatherization and park-level infrastructure upgrades, such as shade and collective cooling shelters. “We’ve seen firsthand how replacing aging, energy-inefficient manufactured homes with new, efficient models can create long-term stability for families and entire communities,” Scott Leonard, the Oregon residential project manager of Energy Trust, a nonprofit that helps families make such upgrades to their homes, told me in a statement. Shandas specifically highlighted the need for local, engaged park managers who can check in on residents during extreme heat events. (He also suggested “some kind of indicator or warning that would tell people to leave when it’s hotter inside than outside and go to a cooling center.”)
But new construction needs to be energy efficient as well, so homeowners can afford the operating costs of life-saving AC units during increasingly hot summers. “The bottom line is that people who live in places that have heat waves deserve to live in a home that’s safe from those heat waves,” Rumbach said.
On bring-your-own-power, Trump’s illegal energy cuts, and New York’s nuclear bonanza
Current conditions: Temperatures in Buffalo, New York, are set to plunge by 40 degrees Fahrenheit • Snow could hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as early as midweek • A cold snap in northern India is thickening fog in the region.
In a post on Truth Social last night, President Donald Trump said he’s “working with major American Technology Companies to secure their commitment to the American People” and shift the burden of financing the data center buildout away from ordinary consumers. “First up is Microsoft, who my team has been working with, and which will make major changes beginning this week to ensure that Americans don’t ‘pick up the tab’ for their POWER consumption, in the form of paying higher utility bills.” He said more announcements were coming in the weeks ahead. While “Data Centers are key to that boom, and keeping Americans FREE and SECURE,” he said “Companies who build them must ‘pay their own way.’”
Hours earlier, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg set the stage for a similar announcement when he posted on Threads that the company was establishing a new “top-level initiative” aimed at building “tens of gigawatts” of power for the Facebook owner’s data centers.
A federal judge has overturned President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to kill New England’s Revolution Wind project. On Monday evening, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia granted a preliminary injunction suspending the Trump administration’s order halting construction on the nearly complete joint venture from Danish wind giant Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables. The decision allows construction to restart immediately while the underlying lawsuit challenging multiple attempts by the Department of the Interior to yank its permits continues in court. In a statement, Orsted said it would resume construction as soon as possible. “Today’s ruling is a decisive win for energy reliability and the hundreds of thousands of families counting on Revolution Wind,” Kat Burnham, the industry group Advanced Energy United’s senior principal and New England policy lead, said in a statement. “The court rightly saw through a politically motivated stop-work order that would have caused real harm: driving up costs, delaying power for Rhode Island and Connecticut, and putting good-paying jobs at risk. It’s good news for workers, ratepayers, and anyone who recognizes the need for a fair energy market.” To glean some insights into how the White House’s most recent effort fell short, it’s worth reviewing my colleague Jael Holzman’s coverage of the last failure and this time.
The Environmental Protection Agency is scrapping the decades-long practice of calculating the health benefits of reducing air pollution by estimating the cost of avoided asthma attacks and premature deaths to justify clean-air rules. Citing internal documents, The New York Times reported Monday that the Trump administration plans to stop tallying the health benefits from curbing two of the most widespread, deadly pollutants: fine particulate matter and ozone. The newspaper called the move “a seismic shift that runs counter to the EPA’s mission statement.” The overhaul could make slashing limits on pollution from coal-burning plants, oil refineries, and steel mills easier. It’s part of a broader overhaul of the EPA’s regulatory system to disregard the scientific realities that few, if any, credible scientists challenged before. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo asked in July when the agency dispensed with the idea that carbon emissions are dangerous, “what comes next?”
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A federal judge ruled Monday that the Trump administration’s decision to slash $8 billion in energy grants to recipients in mostly Democratic-led states was illegal. In his decision, Amit Mehta, whom Obama appointed to the bench of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, wrote that the “terminated grants had one glaring commonality: all the awardees (but one) were based in states whose majority of citizens casting votes did not support President Trump in the 2024 election.” The ruling called on the Department of Energy to reverse its decision to rescind all awards mentioned in the case. The case only covered seven grants, leaving funding for more than 200 other projects up in the air. But as NOTUS noted, the Energy Department’s internal watchdog announced an audit into the cancellations last month.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul positioned herself as one of the most ambitious Democratic governors on nuclear power last summer when, as Heatmap’s Mattew Zeitlin covered at the time, she directed the state-owned New York Power Authority to facilitate construction of at least a gigawatt of new atomic power reactors by 2040. Last week, as we covered here, her administration unveiled 23 potential commercial partners, including Bill Gates’ TerraPower and the utility NextEra, and eight possible communities in which to site the state’s next nuclear plant. Now the governor’s office has told the Syracuse Post-Standard that the administration aims to up the goal from 1 gigawatt to 5 gigawatts of new reactors.
The move comes as Hochul prepares to announce another initiative Tuesday to force data centers to pay for their own energy needs. Piggybacking off Trump’s push, the effort will require “that projects driving exceptional demand without exceptional job creation or other benefits cover the costs they create – through charges or supplying their own power,” according to Axios.
Brazil and Argentina are South America’s only two countries with commercial nuclear power. Despite having governments on opposite sides of the continent’s political divide, the two nations are collaborating on maritime nuclear, using small modular reactors to power ships or produce power from floating plants. “The energy transition process we are experiencing guides us to work together to evolve nuclear regulations and their necessary harmonization, with a view to the use of nuclear reactors on board ships worldwide and, especially, in our jurisdictional waters,” Petronio Augusto Siqueira De Aguiar, the Brazilian admiral from the Naval Secretariat for Nuclear Safety and Quality, said in a statement.
A federal court has once again allowed Orsted to resume construction on its offshore wind project.
A federal court struck down the Trump administration’s three-month stop work order on Orsted’s Revolution offshore wind farm, once again allowing construction to resume (for the second time).
Explaining his ruling from the bench Monday, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth said that project developer Orsted — and the states of Rhode Island and Connecticut, which filed their own suit in support of the company — were “likely” to win on the merits of their lawsuit that the stop work order violated the Administrative Procedures Act. Lamberth said that the Trump administration’s stop work order, issued just before Christmas, amounted to a change in administration position without adequate justification. The justice said he was not sure the emergency being described by the government exists, and that the “stated national security reason may have been pretextual.”
This case was life or death for Revolution Wind. If the stop work order had not been enjoined, Orsted told the court it may not have been able to secure proper vessels for at-sea construction for long enough to complete the project on schedule. This would have a domino effect, threatening Orsted’s ability to meet deadlines in signed power agreements with Rhode Island and Connecticut and therefore threatening wholesale cancellation of the project.
Undergirding this ruling was a quandary Orsted pointed out to the justice: The government issued the stop work order claiming it was intended to mitigate national security concerns but refused to share specifics of the basis for the stop work order with the developer. At the Monday hearing on the injunction in Washington, D.C., Revolution Wind’s legal team pointed to a key quote in a filing submitted by the Justice Department from Interior Deputy Assistant Secretary Jacob Tyner, saying that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the federal offshore energy regulator, was “not aware” of whether the national security risks could ever be mitigated, “and, if they can, whether the developers would find the proposed mitigation measures acceptable.”
This was the first positive outcome in what are multiple legal battles against the Christmas stop work orders against offshore wind projects. As I reported last week, two other developers filed individual suits alongside Orsted against their respective pauses: Dominion Energy in support of the Coastal Virginia offshore project, and Equinor over Empire Wind.
I expect what happened in the Revolution Wind case to be the beginning of a trend, as a cursory examination of the filings in those cases indicate similar contradictions to those that led to Revolution winning out. We’ll find out soon: The hearing on Empire’s stop work order is scheduled for Wednesday and Coastal Virginia on Friday.