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Smoke from unseasonable wildfires is choking the eastern seaboard. Yet Democratic leaders aren’t drawing the obvious lessons, and Republicans remain in denial.

The air in New York City this week has been measured as the worst of any major city in the entire world. At time of writing, its air quality index was measured at 332 — well into the most extreme category of “hazardous,” or nearly twice as bad as second-place Dubai, and the worst figure ever recorded since the EPA started keeping track in 1999.
While New York City had it exceptionally bad, the air was also wretched in Boston, my home city of Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. Conditions are expected to remain grim through the weekend. The reason for this is a combination of severe wildfires breaking out all across Canada, and unfortunate regional wind patterns swirling the smoke all over the eastern U.S.
One would think this would make a perfect moment to illustrate the dangers of climate change. Not only is it a clear and present danger to the health of the American people that is almost certainly related to climate change — seemingly every couple months another study comes out finding that air pollution is much worse than previously thought — it also illustrates that only coordinated international action can address the problem.
But so far one would be wrong. President Biden has not taken the opportunity to build public support for his signature climate legislation, nor have other Democratic leaders. Republicans, with their habitual focus on doing the most obnoxious and stupid possible thing in every circumstance, had been planning to pass a bill “protecting” gas stoves, but failed because the so-called Freedom Caucus is mad about the debt ceiling deal. The mind reels.
Now, one must include the usual caveat that it’s impossible to say whether or not this particular spree of wildfires was specifically caused by climate change. However, we can say that higher temperatures make this kind of thing much more likely, by raising temperatures that make combustion easier and drying out the forests. We can also say that this Canadian wildfire season is wildly worse than what is typical at this time of year. According to the Canadian government, previously this early in the season there have been, on average, 1,624 fires that have burned about a quarter million hectares. This year we’ve seen over 2,200 fires that have burned over three million hectares. With months left in the summer this has already been one of the worst fire seasons on record.
There are some aspects of climate disasters that one might conceivably keep out of the country. Climate refugees can be left to rot and die, and seawalls might be built around threatened cities (not in Florida). Smoke is not like this. You can’t build a wall that prevents air from circulating across the 8,900 mile border between Canada and the U.S. And while rich people might buy fancy air purifiers or respirators, those are poor substitutes for fresh outdoor air and blue skies. Everybody loses when New York City turns into Blade Runner 2049.
So on the Republican side, all this illustrates the grievance perpetual motion machine that has made the party utterly incapable of rational thought. The gas stove measure mentioned above was supposedly meant to stop the government from banning that type of cooking device. There are just a few problems here. The first is that there is no prospect whatsoever of such a ban actually happening. One stray comment from a commissioner of the Consumer Product Safety Commission about the potential of such a ban has been blown ludicrously out of proportion so that conservative elites like Ron DeSantis can howl about being the victims of imaginary liberal oppression.
Second, the argument for replacing gas stoves with electric is based primarily on the fact that lighting an open flame in your home is terrible for air quality. Gas stoves release benzene, nitrogen dioxide, and other toxins that increase the risk of developing respiratory illness, particularly for children. Moreover, induction electric stoves are cleaner, faster, and more accurate in their temperature control than gas ones. There’s no reason to prefer gas, aside from price — hence the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidies for electric stoves.
But even that doesn’t plumb the depths of Freedom Caucus madness. They were all in favor of the gas stove bill, and only blocked it because the debt ceiling compromise wasn’t as close to their ransom demand for raising the ceiling. That demand included a repeal of the IRA’s core structure: the enormous tax credits for renewable investment and production. That not only would create more air pollution directly by prolonging the life of carbon fuel power plants, it also would accelerate climate change, creating more smoke-spewing wildfires. On the very day when America’s largest population complex is choking under a plume of unprecedented wildfire smoke, conservative Republicans are angrily demanding more deadly coal and natural gas pollution, more deadly galloping wildfires, and more deadly stove pollution in the home.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this kind of suicidal political insanity. During the pandemic, we saw literally tens of thousands of loyal Republican base voters and numerous right-wing regional radio hosts die because they believed lunatic propaganda about the COVID vaccines. If the Freedom Caucus has their druthers, many thousands more will die from preventable respiratory illnesses.
On the Democratic side, let me emphasize that the East Coast smoke problem is not a “both sides” situation. Failing to point out that you’re doing the right thing, as Biden and congressional Democrats have done with the IRA, is not remotely as bad as trying to do the wrong thing while that thing is causing mass asthma attacks among schoolchildren.
That said, it is still negligent not to draw the obvious conclusion in public, loudly and repeatedly. Adam Johnson at The Column details how on Tuesday, all the major TV evening news broadcasts covered the smoke disaster without so much as mentioning the possibility of climate change. If Biden and other Democratic leaders had been bringing it up over and over again, that likely would have been very different.
And just in terms of political messaging, it is vitally important to bring home to the average American that this smoke plume is just a tiny sample of what unchecked climate change is going to do. If America and the rest of the world don’t undertake unprecedented, sustained decarbonization efforts over the next several decades, this current haze will seem like paradise compared to what is coming.
Polling shows that few Americans are familiar with the provisions of the IRA, and those that have are skeptical of what it might accomplish. As David Roberts points out on the Volts podcast, because of how the law delegates spending, how much it can achieve is to a great degree up to the efforts of states and localities. Republicans might be out of their gourds, but Democrats should be taking every opportunity to sell their most significant accomplishment in generations.
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Current conditions: Temperatures as low as 30 degrees Fahrenheit below average are expected to persist for at least another week throughout the Northeast, including in New York City • Midsummer heat is driving temperatures up near 100 degrees in Paraguay • Antarctica is facing intense katabatic winds that pull cold air from high altitudes to lower ones.

The United States has, once again, exited the Paris Agreement, the first global carbon-cutting pact to include the world’s two top emitters. President Donald Trump initiated the withdrawal on his first day back in office last year — unlike the last time Trump quit the Paris accords, after a prolonged will-he-won’t-he game in 2017. That process took three years to complete, allowing newly installed President Joe Biden to rejoin in 2021 after just a brief lapse. This time, the process took only a year to wrap up, meaning the U.S. will remain outside the pact for years at least. “Trump is making unilateral decisions to remove the United States from any meaningful global climate action,” Katie Harris, the vice president of federal affairs at the union-affiliated BlueGreen Alliance, said in a statement. “His personal vendetta against clean energy and climate action will hurt workers and our environment.” Now, as Heatmap’s Katie Brigham wrote last year, at “all Paris-related meetings (which comprise much of the conference), the U.S. would have to attend as an ‘observer’ with no decision-making power, the same category as lobbyists.”
America has not yet completed its withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the overarching group through which the Paris Agreement was negotiated, which Trump initiated this month. That won’t be final until next year. That Trump is even planning to quit the body shows how much more aggressive the administration’s approach to climate policy is this time around. Trump remained within the UNFCCC during his first term, preferring to stay engaged in negotiations even after quitting the Paris Agreement.
Just weeks after a federal judge struck down the Trump administration’s stop work order on the Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island’s shores, another federal judge has overturned the order halting construction on the Vineyard Wind project off Massachusetts. That, as Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote last night, “makes four offshore wind farms that have now won preliminary injunctions against Trump’s freeze on the industry.” Besides Revolution Wind, Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind project and Equinor’s Empire Wind plant off Long Island have each prevailed in their challenges to the administration’s blanket order to abandon construction on dubious national security grounds.
Meanwhile, the White House is potentially starving another major infrastructure project of funding. The Gateway rail project to build a new tunnel under the Hudson River between New Jersey and New York City could run out of money and halt construction by the end of next week, the project manager warned Tuesday. Washington had promised billions to get the project done, but the money stopped flowing in October during the government shutdown. Officials at the Department of Transportation said the funding would remain suspended until, as The New York Times reported, the project’s contracts could be reviewed for compliance with new rules about businesses owned by women and minorities.
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A new transmission line connecting New England’s power-starved and gas-addicted grid to Quebec’s carbon-free hydroelectric system just came online this month. But electricity abruptly stopped flowing onto the New England Clean Energy Connect as the Canadian province’s state-owned utility, Hydro-Quebec, withheld power to meet skyrocketing demand at home amid the Arctic chill. Power plant owners in New England and New York, where Hydro-Quebec is building another line down the Hudson River to connect to New York City, complained that deals with the utility focused on maintaining supplies during the summer, when air conditioning traditionally surges power to peak demand. Hydro-Quebec restored power to the line on Monday.
The storm represented a force majeure event. If it hadn’t, the utility would have needed to pay penalties. But the incident is sure to fuel more criticism from power plant owners, most of which are fossil fueled, who oppose increased competition from the Quebecois. “I hate to say it, but a lot of the issues and concerns that we have been talking about for years have played out this weekend,” Dan Dolan — who leads the New England Power Generators Association, a trade group representing power plant owners — told E&E News. “This is a very expensive contract for a product that predominantly comes in non-stressed periods in the winter,” he said.
Europe has signed what the European Commission president Urusula von der Leyen called “the mother of all deals” with India, “a free trade zone of 2 billion people.” As part of the deal, the world’s second-largest market and the most populous nation plan to ramp up exports of steel, plastics, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. But don’t expect Brussels to give New Delhi a break on its growing share of the global emissions. The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism — the first major tariff in the world based on the carbon intensity of imports — just took effect this month, and will remain intact for Indian goods, Reuters reported.
The Department of the Interior has ordered staff at the National Park Service to remove or edit signs and other informational materials in at least 17 parks out West to scrub mentions of climate change or hardship inflicted by settlers on Native Americans. The effort comes as part of what The Washington Post called a renewed push to implement Trump’s executive order on “restoring truth and sanity to American history.” Park staff have interpreted those orders, the newspaper reported, to mean eliminating any reference to historic racism, sexism, LGBTQ rights, and climate change. Just last week, officials removed an exhibit at Independence National Historical Park on George Washington’s ownership of slaves.
Tesla is going trucking. The electric automaker inked a deal Tuesday with Pilot Travel Centers, the nation’s largest operator of highway pit stops, to install Tesla’s Semi Chargers for heavy-duty electric vehicle charging. The stations are set to be built at select Pilot locations along Interstate 5, Interstate 10, and several other major corridors where heavy-duty charging is highest. The first sites are scheduled to open this summer.
Rob talks with McMaster University engineering professor Greig Mordue, then checks in with Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman on the EVs to watch out for.
It’s been a huge few weeks for the electric vehicle industry — at least in North America.
After a major trade deal, Canada is set to import tens of thousands of new electric vehicles from China every year, and it could soon invite a Chinese automaker to build a domestic factory. General Motors has also already killed the Chevrolet Bolt, one of the most anticipated EV releases of 2026.
How big a deal is the China-Canada EV trade deal, really? Will we see BYD and Xiaomi cars in Toronto and Vancouver (and Detroit and Seattle) any time soon — or is the trade deal better for Western brands like Volkswagen or Tesla which have Chinese factories but a Canadian presence? On this week’s Shift Key, Rob talks to Greig Mordue, a former Toyota executive who is now an engineering professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, about how the deal could shake out. Then he chats with Heatmap contributor Andrew Moseman about why the Bolt died — and the most exciting EVs we could see in 2026 anyway.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: Over the weekend there was a new tariff threat from President Trump — he seems to like to do this on Saturday when there are no futures markets open — a new tariff threat on Canada. It is kind of interesting because he initially said that he thought if Canada could make a deal with China, they should, and he thought that was good. Then over the weekend, he said that it was actually bad that Canada had made some free trade, quote-unquote, deal with China.
Do you think that these tariff threats will affect any Carney actions going forward? Is this already priced in, slash is this exactly why Carney has reached out to China in the first place?
Greig Mordue: I think it all comes under the headline of “deep sigh,” and we’ll see where this goes. But for the first 12 months of the U.S. administration, and the threat of tariffs, and the pullback, and the new threat, and this going forward, the public policy or industrial policy response from the government of Canada and the province of Ontario, where automobiles are built in this country, was to tread lightly. And tread lightly, generally means do nothing, and by doing nothing stop the challenges.
And so doing nothing led to Stellantis shutting down an assembly plant in Brampton, Ontario; General Motors shutting an assembly plant in Ingersoll, Ontario; General Motors reducing a three-shift operation in Oshawa, Ontario to two shifts; and Ford ragging the puck — Canadian term — on the launch of a new product in their Oakville, Ontario plant. So doing nothing didn’t really help Canada from a public policy perspective.
So they’re moving forward on two fronts: One is the resetting of relationships with China and the hope of some production from Chinese manufacturers. And two, the promise of automotive industrial policy in February, or at some point this spring. So we’ll see where that goes — and that may cause some more restless nights from the U.S. administration. We’ll see.
Mentioned:
Canada’s new "strategic partnership” with China
The Chevy Bolt Is Already Dead. Again.
The EVs Everyone Will Be Talking About in 2026
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
A federal judge in Massachusetts ruled that construction on Vineyard Wind could proceed.
The Vineyard Wind offshore wind project can continue construction while the company’s lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s stop work order proceeds, judge Brian E. Murphy for the District of Massachusetts ruled on Tuesday.
That makes four offshore wind farms that have now won preliminary injunctions against Trump’s freeze on the industry. Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind project, Orsted’s Revolution Wind off the coast of New England, and Equinor’s Empire Wind near Long Island, New York, have all been allowed to proceed with construction while their individual legal challenges to the stop work order play out.
The Department of the Interior attempted to pause all offshore wind construction in December, citing unspecified “national security risks identified by the Department of War.” The risks are apparently detailed in a classified report, and have been shared neither with the public nor with the offshore wind companies.
Vineyard Wind, a joint development between Avangrid Renewables and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, has been under construction since 2021, and is already 95% built. More than that, it’s sending power to Massachusetts customers, and will produce enough electricity to power up to 400,000 homes once it’s complete.
In court filings, the developer argued it was urgent the stop work order be lifted, as it would lose access to a key construction boat required to complete the project on March 31. The company is in the process of replacing defective blades on its last handful of turbines — a defect that was discovered after one of the blades broke in 2024, scattering shards of fiberglass into the ocean. Leaving those turbine towers standing without being able to install new blades created a safety hazard, the company said.
“If construction is not completed by that date, the partially completed wind turbines will be left in an unsafe condition and Vineyard Wind will incur a series of financial consequences that it likely could not survive,” the company wrote. The Trump administration submitted a reply denying there was any risk.
The only remaining wind farm still affected by the December pause on construction is Sunrise Wind, a 924-megawatt project being developed by Orsted and set to deliver power to New York State. A hearing for an injunction on that order is scheduled for February 2.