The Local Elections That Matter for Decarbonization

In just over a month, America will elect hundreds of thousands of people to state, county, and municipal offices. While those elections might lack the splashiness of the race for the White House or Congress, they could shape how and whether the United States fights climate change. So which elections matter most?

On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob speak with Caroline Spears, the executive director of Climate Cabinet, a group that tries to do ‘Moneyball for climate policy,’ analyzing the races that could matter most for the country’s decarbonization. A winner of the Grist 50 award, Spears formerly worked in the solar industry and now leads the growing organization. We dive into which offices have the most sway role over adaptation and mitigation and which races deserve your attention in 2024. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.

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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:

Caroline Spears: One of the races that is critically important for climate this year is elected utility commissions. They’re not elected in every state, but in about 10 states across the country, voters show up to their ballot box, and they elect the electricity regulatory body for their state.

Should that be an elected position? Listen, it’s not for me to decide. Democracy has decided that electricity regulatory bodies are elected in many states, so here we are. In a bunch of other states, they’re appointed and then confirmed by the state legislature. So there’s this interesting mix of when democracy shows up in these races, in these offices. There are a few public utility commission districts up this November. I really want to highlight the ones happening in Arizona and Montana this year — we’re really watching those, we’re excited to see where those go.

In both cases, climate champions are one and four or zero and five in those states, which means — literally, we are so far from a climate majority in either of those states. And this has real world impacts. So, for example, let’s talk about Montana really quick. That solar company that I used to work for: The Montana Public Service Commission unfairly changed the avoided cost rate, the rate at which we would get compensated, when solar started entering the market. And there’s this hot mic moment where an elected Montana Public Service Commissioner says, “Well, this will kill solar in the state,” and then voted for it. So that’s the power that these public service commissions have, and they’re up for election. They’re up for election this November. So they’re really important.

In Arizona, we’re supporting all three climate champions running. The one person I really want to highlight today is Ylenia Aguilar. She served on the water commission in Arizona, so she has a great knowledge of that intersection between climate and water issues in the state, and just last month she made national news for her work trying to cool down classrooms in Arizona from heating. So she’s someone who can bring together climate, knowledge of what it takes to be on an electricity regulatory commission, and the personal impact of how it actually shows up in people’s lives. So this is the exact type of person you want running for the seat. I’m really excited about those races, but those will be tough.

Jesse Jenkins: And I’ll just add, so these commissions are often in charge of effectively approving the investments and plans of the regulated utilities in the state. In some states, those are only network utilities. So they’re the ones investing in transmission and distribution lines, deciding how to make sure those are resilient to climate damages as we’re seeing from wildfires and floods and hurricanes and everything else.

In other states, like Arizona and Montana, they also oversee utilities that control power generation, as well. So should they be investing in new natural gas plants? Or should they be investing in batteries and solar? For example. Those kinds of decisions go before the utility commission for approval or disapproval before the utilities can earn returns on the investments they make in those areas — or make investments. And as you mentioned, they also set rates both for retail customers — so, you know, what’s the net metering policy? How are we incentivizing flexible EV charging? — and then the rates for, in some cases, avoided costs for larger-scale generators that are connecting to the grid in partial competition frameworks. Lots and lots of other rules.

They’ll be the ones in charge of implementing, usually, clean electricity standards — and in some states, like Arizona, they even have the authority to establish one themselves. So really, really influential bodies.

This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …

Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.

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Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.

Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.