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Inside season 2, episode 8 of Shift Key.
In just over a month, America will elect hundreds of thousands of people to state, county, and municipal offices. While those elections might lack the splashiness of the race for the White House or Congress, they could shape how and whether the United States fights climate change. So which elections matter most?
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Jesse and Rob speak with Caroline Spears, the executive director of Climate Cabinet, a group that tries to do ‘Moneyball for climate policy,’ analyzing the races that could matter most for the country’s decarbonization. A winner of the Grist 50 award, Spears formerly worked in the solar industry and now leads the growing organization. We dive into which offices have the most sway role over adaptation and mitigation and which races deserve your attention in 2024. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University.
Subscribe to “Shift Key” and find this episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can also add the show’s RSS feed to your podcast app to follow us directly.
Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Caroline Spears: One of the races that is critically important for climate this year is elected utility commissions. They’re not elected in every state, but in about 10 states across the country, voters show up to their ballot box, and they elect the electricity regulatory body for their state.
Should that be an elected position? Listen, it’s not for me to decide. Democracy has decided that electricity regulatory bodies are elected in many states, so here we are. In a bunch of other states, they’re appointed and then confirmed by the state legislature. So there’s this interesting mix of when democracy shows up in these races, in these offices. There are a few public utility commission districts up this November. I really want to highlight the ones happening in Arizona and Montana this year — we’re really watching those, we’re excited to see where those go.
In both cases, climate champions are one and four or zero and five in those states, which means — literally, we are so far from a climate majority in either of those states. And this has real world impacts. So, for example, let’s talk about Montana really quick. That solar company that I used to work for: The Montana Public Service Commission unfairly changed the avoided cost rate, the rate at which we would get compensated, when solar started entering the market. And there’s this hot mic moment where an elected Montana Public Service Commissioner says, “Well, this will kill solar in the state,” and then voted for it. So that’s the power that these public service commissions have, and they’re up for election. They’re up for election this November. So they’re really important.
In Arizona, we’re supporting all three climate champions running. The one person I really want to highlight today is Ylenia Aguilar. She served on the water commission in Arizona, so she has a great knowledge of that intersection between climate and water issues in the state, and just last month she made national news for her work trying to cool down classrooms in Arizona from heating. So she’s someone who can bring together climate, knowledge of what it takes to be on an electricity regulatory commission, and the personal impact of how it actually shows up in people’s lives. So this is the exact type of person you want running for the seat. I’m really excited about those races, but those will be tough.
Jesse Jenkins: And I’ll just add, so these commissions are often in charge of effectively approving the investments and plans of the regulated utilities in the state. In some states, those are only network utilities. So they’re the ones investing in transmission and distribution lines, deciding how to make sure those are resilient to climate damages as we’re seeing from wildfires and floods and hurricanes and everything else.
In other states, like Arizona and Montana, they also oversee utilities that control power generation, as well. So should they be investing in new natural gas plants? Or should they be investing in batteries and solar? For example. Those kinds of decisions go before the utility commission for approval or disapproval before the utilities can earn returns on the investments they make in those areas — or make investments. And as you mentioned, they also set rates both for retail customers — so, you know, what’s the net metering policy? How are we incentivizing flexible EV charging? — and then the rates for, in some cases, avoided costs for larger-scale generators that are connecting to the grid in partial competition frameworks. Lots and lots of other rules.
They’ll be the ones in charge of implementing, usually, clean electricity standards — and in some states, like Arizona, they even have the authority to establish one themselves. So really, really influential bodies.
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …
Watershed’s climate data engine helps companies measure and reduce their emissions, turning the data they already have into an audit-ready carbon footprint backed by the latest climate science. Get the sustainability data you need in weeks, not months. Learn more at watershed.com.
As a global leader in PV and ESS solutions, Sungrow invests heavily in research and development, constantly pushing the boundaries of solar and battery inverter technology. Discover why Sungrow is the essential component of the clean energy transition by visiting sungrowpower.com.
Intersolar & Energy Storage North America is the premier U.S.-based conference and trade show focused on solar, energy storage, and EV charging infrastructure. To learn more, visit intersolar.us.
Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.
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On autumn heat waves, the VP debate, and solar tariffs
Current conditions: Thousands of people in Taiwan have been evacuated ahead of Super Typhoon Krathon • Hurricane Kirk could veer toward Ireland • Forecasters are monitoring the warm Gulf of Mexico for signs of another potential storm expected to form later this week.
Vice presidential hopefuls Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz discussed energy and climate change during last night’s VP debate. The topics were all but unavoidable after one of the costliest hurricanes in recent U.S. history devastated communities far from the coast the weekend before the debate. Vance refused to say with certainty that the climate crisis was caused by fossil fuel emissions, but said that if it were, the U.S. president would want to “reshore as much American manufacturing as possible, and produce as much energy as possible in the United States of America, because we’re the cleanest economy in the entire world.” What Vance is describing sounds suspiciously like the rationale behind the Inflation Reduction Act, which explicitly aims to build a green economy at home in the U.S. Walz more or less pointed that out in his response: “We’ve seen massive investments — the biggest in global history,” he said. “We’ve seen that the Inflation Reduction Act has created jobs all across the country,” including in manufacturing electric cars and solar panels. “It goes to show: Climate jobs and domestic manufacturing are popular ideas with the American public,” wrote Heatmap’s Jeva Lange. “Just don’t tell your boss, JD.”
President Biden and Vice President Harris today will visit states ravaged by Hurricane Helene. Biden will travel to North Carolina, with plans to head to Georgia and Florida “as soon as possible,” according to the White House. Harris heads to Augusta, Georgia, today and will visit North Carolina “in the coming days.” Biden approved a declaration for a major disaster in South Carolina yesterday. He has directed FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell to remain on the ground in Asheville, North Carolina, to help identify ways to speed up recovery efforts in communities cut off by road closures and debris. CNN reported that in some areas, supplies are being delivered by mules. As of this morning, more than 1.3 million people are still without power across five states, with most of the outages in the Carolinas and Georgia. The storm’s death toll has risen to more than 160.
On the other side of the country, intense heat is breaking records. San Francisco recorded its hottest day of 2024 yesterday, with temperatures hitting 93 degrees Fahrenheit. The Sonoma County Airport hit 106 degrees. Other parts of the Bay Area were “as much as 35 degrees above normal” overnight, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. An excessive heat warning remains in place until 11 p.m. tonight. Here’s a look at some of the daily records set or tied:
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Phoenix recorded its hottest October day ever (of 113 degrees), breaking the previous 1980 record by a stunning 6 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Commerce Department yesterday announced new tariffs on solar panel imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some U.S. manufacturers say Chinese companies are operating in those countries to get around U.S. duties on solar imports from China, and that the cheap imports hurt domestic solar panel producers. But others in the industry argue that low-priced imports are essential to ramping up clean-energy projects. “The targeted nations provide the bulk of U.S. solar cell and module imports,” Bloombergreported, “and the swift imposition of countervailing duties means renewable developers will face higher prices for that equipment right away.”
Mexico swore in its first-ever female president yesterday. Claudia Sheinbaum’s election has raised the hopes of environmentalists because she’s a climate scientist with a Ph.d. in energy engineering. She has vowed to boost the country’s renewable energy infrastructure and put forward a $14 billion plan for new energy generation that focuses on renewables. But, as The Washington Postnoted, her ideas are “incompatible” with her other promise, which is to carry on the policies of her predecessor López Obrador and rescue the country’s indebted state oil company.
A company called DairyX claims to have created a type of protein that can make plant-based cheeses stretchy, potentially solving the consistency problem that has long stumped makers of dairy-free cheeses.
“Ifwe actually care about getting cleaner air and cleaner water, the best thing to do is to double down and invest in American workers.”
It was always going to be the case that the vice presidential debate would have the most substantive climate exchange of the 2024 election cycle. For one (big) thing: Neither candidate was Donald Trump. For another, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance both have, at least at some point, professed concern about “the climate problem.” But a question from the moderators was all but guaranteed after one of the costliest hurricanes in recent U.S. history devastated communities far from the coast the weekend before the debate.
Rather than get just a few meager sentences about “immaculate clean water,” then, Americans who bothered to tune into the debate were treated to a lengthy back-and-forth about clean energy investment and the Inflation Reduction Act by the presidential candidates’ seconds. The exchange touched off when Vance was asked what responsibility the Trump administration would have “to try and reduce the impact of climate change,” especially given the scenes out of Western North Carolina.
“A lot of people are justifiably worried about all these crazy weather patterns,” Vance said to start (though lest we forget, those “crazy weather patterns” just left 100 dead in six U.S. states and are expected to result in 250,000 excess deaths per year by 2050, according to the IPCC). He added that “Donald Trump and I support clean air, clean water” but that “one of the things that I’ve noticed some of our Democratic friends talking a lot about is a concern about carbon emissions — this idea that carbon emissions drive all the climate change.”
Who had on their Bingo card that Vance would be the first to mention carbon emissions during a debate in 2024? But he quickly turned the moment around to cast doubt on the human causes: “Let’s just say that’s true, for the sake of argument, so we’re not arguing about weird science,” he added, though he proceeded to structure his remarks as if we live in a world where greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere (what a thought!):
If you believe that, what would you want to do?
The answer is that you want to reshore as much American manufacturing as possible, and you want to produce as much energy as possible in the United States of America, because we’re the cleanest economy in the entire world.
Kamala Harris’ policies actually led to more energy production in China, more manufacturing overseas, more doing business in some of the dirtiest parts of the entire world — when I say that, I mean the amount of carbon emissions they’re doing per unit of economic output.
So if we actually care about getting cleaner air and cleaner water, the best thing to do is to double down and invest in American workers and the American people.
Of course, what Vance is describing sounds suspiciously like the rationale behind the Inflation Reduction Act, which explicitly aims to build a green economy at home in the U.S. Walz more or less pointed that out in his response: “We’ve seen massive investments — the biggest in global history,” he said. “We’ve seen that the Inflation Reduction Act has created jobs all across the country,” including in manufacturing electric cars and solar panels.
Walz also noted that Trump has called climate change a hoax, which earned Vance a chance to respond. “If the Democrats — in particular, Kamala Harris and her leadership — if they really believe that climate change is serious, what they would be doing is more manufacturing and more energy production in the United States of America,” he reemphasized, then added: “If you really want to make the environment cleaner, you’ve got to invest in more energy production. We’ve built a nuclear facility — I think one in the past 40 years. Natural gas, we’ve got to invest more in it.”
The ball then returned to Walz. “We’re producing more natural gas than we ever had,” he correctly pointed out (and, though he didn’t mention it, Biden recently signed a big bill advancing nuclear, too). But while Trump hosted oil executives at Mar-a-Lago when he was courting campaign donations, “we can be smarter about that and an all-above energy policy,” the governor went on. “That’s exactly what this administration has done. We are seeing us becoming an energy superpower for the future, not just the current.”
Was it a perfect climate exchange? Not really. It’s easy to see why the oil industry is sweet on Vance and Walz’s citation of an “all-above energy policy” will likely leave some in the more progressive wings of the climate movement feeling cold.
But it will be described as an amicable exchange, particularly for moments like Walz telling Vance, “Well, we got close to an agreement” on recognizing so-called crazy weather patterns. In truth, they also got close to an agreement on a little something called the IRA — yet another case of a Republican trying to have it both ways. It goes to show: Climate jobs and domestic manufacturing are popular ideas with the American public. Just don’t tell your boss, JD.
We didn’t have to wait long for climate to come up during tonight’s vice presidential debate between VP hopefuls Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz — the night’s second question was about the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene and fueled by warmer air and waters due to climate pollution.
Vance started off his answer innocuously enough, extending his thoughts and prayers to those affected by the hurricane and then proceeding to some campaign boilerplate. “I think it’s important for us, first of all, to say Donald Trump and I support clean air and clean water,” Vance said up top, echoing Trump’s claim that he wants “absolutely immaculate clean water and … absolutely clean air,” from the presidential debate back in June. (It’s worth noting, of course, that his policy choices tell a different story.)
Vance then proceeded to hedge the climate change question in a way that wound up backing him right into it. “One of the things that I've noticed some of our Democratic friends talking a lot about is a concern about carbon emissions, this idea that carbon emissions drives all of the climate change,” Vance said. “Well, let’s just say that's true — just for the sake of argument, so we’re not arguing about weird science. Let’s just say that’s true.”
He then went on to describe an America-first all-of-the-above energy and manufacturing policy that sounded more than a little familiar.