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A Trade Storm Is Brewing in Dubai

Led by Brazil, manufacturing powerhouses have taken their issue with the EU’s new carbon tariff to COP28.

Pollution.
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The European Union launched the first stage of its carbon border tax this fall, and the world’s biggest emerging economies aren’t happy.

As of October 1, the EU regulation officially known as the “carbon border adjustment mechanism” requires importers to report the emissions associated with making steel, cement, fertilizers, and other carbon-intensive products. Those embedded emissions will then be subject to a targeted carbon tax starting in 2026.

The tariff isn’t merely punitive — rather, it’s intended to keep companies in the EU competitive with those in countries with lower or nonexistent carbon regulations. (The EU has capped internal carbon emissions since 2005.) But Brazil, China, India, and South Africa have all pushed back against the EU for raising trade barriers, calling the adjustment “discriminatory.”

Now, Brazil has brought those grievances to COP28. On behalf of the four countries, it pushed for language — seemingly authored by China — to be inserted into an early draft of the agenda-setting global stocktake that will be negotiated during the conference, Politicoreported.

The draft text “expresses serious concern” about policies like the EU’s tariff, “which are not aligned with the principles of the Paris Agreement, in particular equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, as well as [World Trade Organization] rules.” Brazil’s submission argues that such “unilateral” measures “seriously undermine multilateral cooperation and the ability of the concerned countries to combat climate change.”

In fact, top WTO officials have voiced support in the past for rules that address “carbon leakage” and have said they’re trying to overcome international differences on carbon pricing, according to an earlier Politico report.

Rebeca Grynspan, secretary general of the United Nations conference on trade and development, spoke up for emerging economies at COP28, explaining at an event that they see green trade barriers like the EU’s as “protectionist” and as “an obstacle for their development,” according to Agence France-Presse. Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank, also warned in Dubai of “unintended consequences” from regulating trade.

European negotiators, for their part, don’t seem too worried. “We don’t expect them to derail the conversations, mostly because I don’t think any party expects this to be a forum for a discussion” on trade, EU representative Jacob Werksman told reporters. “There’s a whole other institution for that. That’s the World Trade Organization.”

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Sparks

These 21 House Republicans Want to Preserve Energy Tax Credits

For those keeping score, that’s three more than wanted to preserve them last year.

The Capitol.
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Those who drew hope from the letter 18 House Republicans sent to Speaker Mike Johnson last August calling for the preservation of energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act must be jubilant this morning. On Sunday, 21 House Republicans sent a similar letter to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith. Those with sharp eyes will have noticed: That’s three more people than signed the letter last time, indicating that this is a coalition with teeth.

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The Country’s Largest Power Markets Are Getting More Gas

Three companies are joining forces to add at least a gigawatt of new generation by 2029. The question is whether they can actually do it.

Natural gas pipelines.
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Two of the biggest electricity markets in the country — the 13-state PJM Interconnection, which spans the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest, and ERCOT, which covers nearly all of Texas — want more natural gas. Both are projecting immense increases in electricity demand thanks to data centers and electrification. And both have had bouts of market weirdness and dysfunction, with ERCOT experiencing spiky prices and even blackouts during extreme weather and PJM making enormous payouts largely to gas and coal operators to lock in their “capacity,” i.e. their ability to provide power when most needed.

Now a trio of companies, including the independent power producer NRG, the turbine manufacturer GE Vernova, and a subsidiary of the construction firm Kiewit Corporation, are teaming up with a plan to bring gas-powered plants to PJM and ERCOT, the companies announced today.

The three companies said that the new joint venture “will work to advance four projects totaling over 5 gigawatts” of natural gas combined cycle plants to the two power markets, with over a gigawatt coming by 2029. The companies said that they could eventually build 10 to 15 gigawatts “and expand to other areas across the U.S.”

So far, PJM and Texas’ call for new gas has been more widely heard than answered. The power producer Calpine said last year that it would look into developing more gas in PJM, but actual investment announcements have been scarce, although at least one gas plant scheduled to close has said it would stay open.

So far, across the country, planned new additions to the grid are still overwhelmingly solar and battery storage, according to the Energy Information Administration, whose data shows some 63 gigawatts of planned capacity scheduled to be added this year, with more than half being solar and over 80% being storage.

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An Emergency Trump-Coded Appeal to Save the Hydrogen Tax Credit

Featuring China, fossil fuels, and data centers.

The Capitol.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

As Republicans in Congress go hunting for ways to slash spending to carry out President Trump’s agenda, more than 100 energy businesses, trade groups, and advocacy organizations sent a letter to key House and Senate leaders on Tuesday requesting that one particular line item be spared: the hydrogen tax credit.

The tax credit “will serve as a catalyst to propel the United States to global energy dominance,” the letter argues, “while advancing American competitiveness in energy technologies that our adversaries are actively pursuing.” The Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association organized the letter, which features signatures from the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Clean Energy Buyers Association, and numerous hydrogen, industrial gas, and chemical companies, among many others. Three out of the seven regional clean hydrogen hubs — the Mid-Atlantic, Heartland, and Pacific Northwest hubs — are also listed.

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