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Sparks

Coral Bleaching Is a $9 Trillion Problem

A new report forecasts a future where reefs go over a “tipping point.”

A coral reef in color and black and white.
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Coral reefs are a thing of wonder, both organism and underwater infrastructure that houses thousands of species of fish. They are also, as you might already know, in grave danger. Climate change is contributing to massive waves of coral bleaching around the world, from the Great Barrier Reef to the ocean off of Florida, where an extreme oceanic heat wave this year turned mile after mile of reef a ghostly white.

We’ve known about coral bleaching for years, but a new report out Wednesday draws fresh attention to corals’ plight, including reefs — along with ice sheets, rainforests, and ocean currents, among others — on a list of imminent climate “tipping points.” And if they go over the brink, the consequences could reach far beyond the ocean floor.

According to the report, about a billion people, or 13% of the world’s population, are estimated to live within 100 kilometers of a coral reef. Together, those reefs provide $9.9 trillion of economic value each year. Reefs are sources of both nutrition and income; in Australia, the Great Barrier Reef is estimated to create 68,000 jobs and 5.7 billion Australian dollars of revenue each year, mostly from tourism. This means the risk to coral is a risk to humans, as well.

There’s still a lot we don’t know — “There are numerous pathways by which coral reef degradation may cascade into social and economic tipping points,” the authors write — starting with how exactly coral loss affects fish. Some studies have found that species like butterfly fish and parrot fish were negatively affected when their local coral bleached; other studies have shown fish communities getting on just fine.

But those bleaching events were limited. The authors of the “Global Tipping Points” report — led by Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, in collaboration with a couple hundred researchers from around the world and received funding from the Bezos Earth Fund — suggest that coral could soon suffer something catastrophic and nearly irreversible on a worldwide scale.

“Documented impacts of coral cover declines include a loss of fish species, reductions in overall fish biomass and productivity, and potential destabilization of the food web,” the authors write. “If reefs are forced by climate change into low-productivity states, and if these states in turn force fish communities across a tipping point into a less diverse and less productive state, many coastal human communities will be forced to modify their lifestyles in significant ways.”

It’s yet another example of the sort of compounding disaster that climate change tends to bring, and a reminder of the interconnectedness of the ecosystems we live in and rely on, even if we can’t always see them. As Benji Jones writes in Vox, scientists are doing their best to find ways to save coral reefs; soon, however, their jobs could turn entirely to resurrection.

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Sparks

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Google and Exxon logos.
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The energy giant ExxonMobil is planning a huge investment in natural gas-fired power plants that will power data centers directly, a.k.a. behind the meter, meaning they won’t have to connect to the electric grid. That will allow the fossil fuel giant to avoid making the expensive transmission upgrades that tend to slow down the buildout of new electricity generation. And it’ll add carbon capture to boot.

The company said in a corporate update that it plans to build facilities that “would use natural gas to generate a significant amount of high-reliability electricity for a data center,” then use carbon capture to “remove more than 90% of the associated CO2 emissions, then transport the captured CO2 to safe, permanent storage deep underground.” Going behind the meter means that this generation “can be installed at a pace that other alternatives, including U.S. nuclear power, cannot match,” the company said.

The move represents a first for Exxon, which is famous for its far-flung operations to extract and process oil and natural gas but has not historically been in the business of supplying electricity to customers. The company is looking to generate 1.5 gigawatts of power, about 50% more than a large nuclear reactor, The New York Timesreported.

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Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

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The acceleration represents a clear push by the outgoing Biden administration to get money out the door before President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to hollow out much of the Department of Energy, takes office. Still, there’s a good chance these recent conditional commitments won’t become final before the new administration takes office, as that process involves checking a series of nontrivial boxes that include performing due diligence, addressing or mitigating various project risks, and negotiating financing terms. And if the deals aren’t finalized before Trump takes office, they’re at risk of being paused or cancelled altogether, something the DOE considers unwise, to put it lightly.

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