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Don’t mess with Texas’ power demand.
Load growth is becoming controversial in Texas, where its isolated, uniquely free market electricity system makes a sometimes awkward fit with the state’s distinctive right-wing politics. They crashed together Wednesday, when the state’s conservative Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who a few weeks ago was attending Donald Trump’s criminal trialin New York City, expressed skepticism of the state’s bitcoin mining industry and the prospect of more data centers coming to Texas.
Responding to “shocking” testimony from the head of ERCOT, which manages about 90% of Texas’s electricity grid, Patrick wrote on X, “We need to take a close look at those two industries [crypto and AI]. They produce very few jobs compared to the incredible demands they place on our grid. Crypto mining may actually make more money selling electricity back to the grid than from their crypto mining operations."
Texas has become a center of the crypto mining industry precisely because of how flexible and market-oriented the state’s grid is. Crypto miners in Texas can take advantage of ERCOT’s “demand response” programs, which pay large users of electricity to be willing to shut down when power is scarce and expensive on the grid, and have a relatively easy time getting onto the grid.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has estimated that crypto mining makes up about 2% of the country’s electricity demand, and the industry’s power usage has come under scrutiny from politicians before, but typically from Democrats.
Riot Networks, a crypto miner based in Texas, has at times made dramatically more money from its interactions with the grid than by actually generating Bitcoin. Last August, when Texas was setting records for electricity demand, the company made $31.6 million from selling power back to the grid that it had previously bought for a prearranged price, or from incentive payments for being willing to power down in moments of peak demand, compared to $8.6 million from crypto mining. The result, the company’s chief executive said in a statement, “was a landmark month for Riot in showcasing the benefits of our unique power strategy.”
The miners have also been blamed for raising pricesfor Texas residents and businesses who can’t be as flexible with their power demand, as well as for the greenhouse gas emissions generated by their activity.
Patrick, oddly enough and almost certainly inadvertently, echoed an extensive 2013 New York Timesstory when he said that “Texans will ultimately pay the price” for high power demand from this crypto and data operations. “I’m more interested in building the grid to service customers in their homes, apartments, and normal businesses and keeping costs as low as possible for them instead of for very niche industries that have massive power demands and produce few jobs. We want data centers, but it can’t be the Wild Wild West of data centers and crypto miners crashing our grid and turning the lights off,” Patrick wrote.
(The New York Times: “Other major energy users, like factories and hospitals, cannot reduce their power use as routinely or dramatically without severe consequences,” and “other industries, including metals and plastics manufacturing, also require large amounts of electricity, causing pollution and raising power prices. But Bitcoin mines bring significantly fewer jobs.”)
At the same time, Trump has been making a concerted play for the crypto community, including miners. He has promised to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, who operated The Silk Road, an online marketplace (for, among other things, illegal drugs) that used crypto. (He’s serving a life sentencefor narcotics distribution and a host of conspiracy charges.) On Wednesday, Trump posted to Truth Social, “Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC,” a.k.a. a central bank digital currency. “Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!!”
Trump in the past has sounded the Bitcoin skeptic, having tweeted in 2019, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....,” but has since seemed to have, for now, come around.
While Trump is making a concerted play to win over new constituencies for his election bid, Patrick was responding to testimony from the head of ERCOT that Texas’s power demand will grow faster than previously estimated, and that electricity supply may need to almost double in the next 10 years at the latest.
That will require substantial new supply. While Texas is leading the nationin installation of utility-scale solar and is the number one state for wind thanks to a combination of its large size, growing population and electricity demand, large sunny and windy areas,and a more light-touch approachto regulation and hooking up to the grid, it is also embracing state planning for its fossil energy sector. Texas has established a $5 billion fund to provide low-cost financing to developers of dispatchable power generatorsthat can be turned on and off at any time — largely natural gas.
Patrick had said earlier in a statement, “We must bring new dispatchablegeneration (primarily new natural gas plants) to Texas to ensure we maintain reliable power under any circumstance.”
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We’re powering data centers every which way these days.
The energy giant ExxonMobil is planning a huge investment in natural gas-fired power plants that will power data centers directly, a.k.a. behind the meter, meaning they won’t have to connect to the electric grid. That will allow the fossil fuel giant to avoid making the expensive transmission upgrades that tend to slow down the buildout of new electricity generation. And it’ll add carbon capture to boot.
The company said in a corporate update that it plans to build facilities that “would use natural gas to generate a significant amount of high-reliability electricity for a data center,” then use carbon capture to “remove more than 90% of the associated CO2 emissions, then transport the captured CO2 to safe, permanent storage deep underground.” Going behind the meter means that this generation “can be installed at a pace that other alternatives, including U.S. nuclear power, cannot match,” the company said.
The move represents a first for Exxon, which is famous for its far-flung operations to extract and process oil and natural gas but has not historically been in the business of supplying electricity to customers. The company is looking to generate 1.5 gigawatts of power, about 50% more than a large nuclear reactor, The New York Timesreported.
Exxon’s announcement comes as thepower industry has reached an inflection point thanks to new demand from data centers to power artificial intelligence, electrification of transportation and heating, and new manufacturing investment. The demand for new power is immense, yet the industry’s ability to provide it quickly is limited both by the intermittent nature of cheap renewable power like solar and storage — plus the transmission capacity it requires — and by theregulatory barriers and market uncertainty around building new natural gas and nuclear power. While technology companies are starting to invest in bringing more nuclear power onto the grid,those projects won’t begin to bear fruit until the 2030s at the earliest.
Exxon is also not the only energy giant looking at behind-the-meter gas.
“This county is blessed with an abundance of natural gas,” Chevron chief executive Mike Wirthsaid at a recent event hosted by the Atlantic Council. “I think what we’re likely to see is that gas turbine generation is going to be a big part of the solution set, and a lot of it may be what’s called behind the meter … to support data centers.”
At the same time, the so-called hyperscalers are still making massive investments in renewables. Google, the investment firm TPG, and the energy developer Intersectannounced a $20 billion investment “to synchronize new clean power generation with data center growth in a novel way,” Google’s President and Chief Investment Officer Ruth Porat wrote in a company blog post on Tuesday.
While Google was a pioneer in developing new renewable power to offset emissions from its operations and recently formed a partnership with Microsoft and the steel company Nucor to foster energy technology that can deliver clean power 24/7, this new project will be focused on “co-locating grid-connected carbon-free energy and data center investments into closely-linked infrastructure projects.”
These projects — the data centers and the clean power generation — would be sited close to each other, however they would not be behind the meter, a Google executive told Canary Media. Instead, Intersect will build “new clean energy assets in regions and projects of interest,” according to the blog post, with Google then acting as an offtaker for the power “as an anchor tenant in the co-located industrial park that would support data center development.” The Google data center and the Intersect-built power “would come online alongside its own clean power, bringing new generation capacity to the grid to meet our load, reduce time to operation and improve grid reliability.”
“This partnership is an evolution of the way hyperscalers and power providers have previously worked together,” Sheldon Kimber, Intersect chief executive, said in a press release. “We can and are developing innovative solutions to rapidly expand clean power capacity at scale while reducing the strain on the grid.”
But ... how?
President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday rocked the energy world when he promised “fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals” for “Any person or company investing ONE BILLION DOLLARS, OR MORE, in the United States of America,” in a post on Truth Social Tuesday.
“GET READY TO ROCK!!!” he added.
Trump has frequently derided regulatory barriers to development, including in his announcements of various economic and policy roles in his upcoming administration. His designee for Secretary of the Interior, Doug Burgum, for instance, will also head a
National Energy Council that will “oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape … by focusing on INNOVATION over longstanding, but totally unnecessary, regulation.”
When Trump
announced his nomination of Lee Zeldin to head the Environmental Protection Agency, he said Zeldin would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American business.”
Current interpretations of existing laws dictate that any project constituting a major federal action (e.g. one that uses public lands) must be reviewed under the National Environmental Policy Act, the country’s signature permitting law. Federal courts are often asked in litigation to sign off on whether that review process — although not the outcome — was sufficient.
Regardless of any changes Trump may make to the federal regulatory system as president, that infrastructure is already in flux. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals recently issued a ruling that throws into doubt decades of NEPA enforcement. Also on Tuesday, the Supreme Court heard a separate case on the limits of NEPA as it relates to aproposed rail line expansion to transport oil from Utah’s Uinta Basin to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. Although the court is unlikely to issue a decision until next year, its current membership has shown itself plenty willing to scrap longstanding precedent in the name of cutting the regulatory state down to size.
Trump did not support his announcement with any additional materials laying out the legal authorities he plans to exercise to exempt these projects from regulation or proposed legislation, but it already attracted criticism from environmentalists, with the Sierra Club describing it as a “plan to sell out communities and environment to the highest bidder.It’s also unclear whether Trump was referring to foreign direct investment in the United States, of which there was $177 billion in 2022,according to the Department of Commerce.
Trump’s appointed co-deregulator-in-chief, for one, approved of his message today. “This is awesome 🚀🇺🇸,” Elon Musk wrote on X in response.
Companies are racing to finish the paperwork on their Department of Energy loans.
Of the over $13 billion in loans and loan guarantees that the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office has made under Biden, nearly a third of that funding has been doled out in the month since the presidential election. And of the $41 billion in conditional commitments — agreements to provide a loan once the borrower satisfies certain preconditions — that proportion rises to nearly half. That includes some of the largest funding announcements in the office’s history: more than $7.5 billion to StarPlus Energy for battery manufacturing, $4.9 billion to Grain Belt Express for a transmission project, and nearly $6.6 billion to the electric vehicle company Rivian to support its new manufacturing facility in Georgia.
The acceleration represents a clear push by the outgoing Biden administration to get money out the door before President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to hollow out much of the Department of Energy, takes office. Still, there’s a good chance these recent conditional commitments won’t become final before the new administration takes office, as that process involves checking a series of nontrivial boxes that include performing due diligence, addressing or mitigating various project risks, and negotiating financing terms. And if the deals aren’t finalized before Trump takes office, they’re at risk of being paused or cancelled altogether, something the DOE considers unwise, to put it lightly.
“It would be irresponsible for any government to turn its back on private sector partners, states, and communities that are benefiting from lower energy costs and new economic opportunities spurred by LPO’s investments,” a spokesperson wrote to me in an email.
The once nearly dormant LPO has had a renaissance under the Biden administration and the office’s current director, Jigar Shah. The Inflation Reduction Act supercharged its lending authority to $400 billion, from just $40 billion when Biden took office. Then a week after the election, the office announced that it had recalibrated its risk estimates for the loan guarantees that it makes under the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment program, which works to modernize and repurpose existing energy infrastructure to make it cleaner and more energy efficient. As the office explained, these projects “may reflect a relatively moderate risk profile in comparison to typical projects LPO finances with higher project risk.” When there’s less risk involved, LPO doesn’t have to set aside as much money to cover a possible default, which in this case has allowed the office to more than quadruple its funding for qualifying projects.
It’s not just that LPO staffers are working fast, though that’s part of it — it’s also that loan beneficiaries have picked up their pace in responding to the LPO. As Shah emphasized today at the LPO’s second annual Demonstrate Deploy Decarbonize conference, finalizing conditional commitments largely depends on companies getting their ducks in a row as quickly as possible. “I do think that right now borrowers are sufficiently motivated to move more quickly than they have probably a year ago,” Shah said. “It's up to the borrowers. Our process hasn’t changed. Their ability to move through it faster is in their control.”
Shah noted that though timelines may be accelerating, the office’s due diligence procedures have remained the same. Thus far, the project that has moved the fastest from a conditional commitment to a finalized loan was for a clean hydrogen and energy storage facility in Utah. That took 43 days, and there are 46 left in Biden’s presidency. Let’s see what the LPO can do.