Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Sparks

The Pro-IRA House Republicans Who Lost Their Jobs

Let’s do some congressional math.

The Capitol.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Since August, climate policy optimists have pointed to a letter sent by 18 Republican members of the House of Representatives to Speaker Mike Johnson imploring him to preserve the energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.

As of January, however, some of them will no longer be Johnson’s problem.

Two signatories from newly redrawn House districts in New York, Marcus Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito, are out of a job already, beaten by Democrats Josh Riley and Laura Gillen, respectively, each of whom received an endorsement from the New York League of Conservation Voters. Also definitively leaving the House is Utah Republican John Curtis, founder of the Conservative Climate Caucus, who is headed across the hall to the Senate.

Of the remaining 15 Republicans, four are in races that still have not been called, and three look to be in moderate-to-severe jeopardy. The current chair of the Conservative Climate Caucus, for instance, Iowa’s Mariannette Miller-Meeks, is leading challenger Christina Bohannan by just 0.2% — i.e. 799 votes — with all precincts reporting. The state has no automatic recount law, but candidates can request one at little to no expense when the margin is within 1%; a spokesperson from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office told a local TV network that if a request comes in, it’ll likely be after the results are certified early this week. As Heatmap’s Jeva Lange wrote in our climate election tracker, “Bohannan has attacked Miller-Meeks for slow-walking action on addressing climate change through her soft hand with the oil and gas industry,” and as of the final weeks of the race was out-raising Miller-Meeks by a 2-to-1 ratio, E&E News reported.

Another seat Democrats saw an opportunity to flip was Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, where letter signatory Juan Ciscomani has, as of this moment, squeaked out ahead of Democrat Kirsten Engel by 0.6% after appearing to trail for much of last week, though that could change again as more votes are counted. The news is worse for Oregon’s Lori Chavez-DeRemer, however, who with 87% of precincts reporting is behind Democrat Janelle Bynum in the vote by close to 3%.

If all these races were to be certified as they currently stand, that would leave 14 of the original group of 18 representatives still in Congress. If all the House races with results still outstanding fall into line per their current leanings, then Johnson will have just an 11-vote majority. That means this group of lawmakers can still derail the House’s agenda if they so choose, though just barely.

As for the three House seats Republicans have flipped so far, two are in Pennsylvania and one is in Michigan, both states Biden won in 2020. The victors in the two Pennsylvania races, campaigned against the “radical climate agenda” and the “climate crazies,” respectively. Yet the new representative from Michigan’s 7th district, Tom Barrett, has earned a score of 32% from the Michigan League of Conservation Voters during his time in the state Senate, making him a potential Conservative Climate Caucus recruit. The group’s current chair, Miller-Meeks, has a LCV score of just 12%.

So where does that leave us? About where we started, with the politics of repeal teetering on a wind turbine blade-edge. It’s one thing to campaign against the IRA, but the actual business of gutting is another thing entirely. On election night, my colleague Robinson Meyer cited a Washington Post analysis showing that Trump 2020 districts have received three times as much funding from Biden’s signature climate law as those that went the other way. Though that won’t necessarily convince every voter to welcome solar developments in their backyard, when the margins of victory are this slim, every tenth of a percent of the vote counts.

Green

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Sparks

Trump’s Pro-Gas, Transition-Skeptical Pick to Run the Nation’s Energy Data

Tristan Abbey would come to Washington from a Texas think tank that argues peak oil is way off base.

Donald Trump.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Donald Trump’s pick to run the Energy Information Administration works for a think tank that denies the existence of an energy transition.

The Energy Information Administration is the nation’s primary energy fuel and power forecasting agency. Since its inception in 1977, EIA has become a go-to source of data for many U.S. businesses, analysts, and policymakers alike. The agency’s previous administrators have been relatively apolitical academics and industry experts, including under the first Trump administration, whose EIA administrator came to the role from a faculty position at Rice University. The office’s current acting administrator is Stephen Nalley, who was appointed deputy administrator by Trump in 2018 after serving in various other roles at the agency.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
Sparks

Why Are AI Stocks Falling Again?

Microsoft is canceling data center leases, according to a Wall Street analyst.

Microsoft headquarters.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The artificial intelligence industry is experiencing another TD Cowen shock.

The whole spectrum of companies connected to artificial intelligence — the companies that design the chips, that supply the power, that make the generation equipment — shuddered Wednesday when the brokerage released another note from analysts pointing to evidence that Microsoft was giving up on its data center leases.

Keep reading...Show less
Sparks

The IRS Is Taking Mercy on Electric Car Buyers

The tax agency reopened its online portal to allow dealerships to register sales retroactively.

The IRS building.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

As recently as last month, some electric vehicle buyers were running into roadblocks when they tried to claim the EV tax credit on their 2024 returns. Their claims were rejected, it turned out, because the dealership where they bought their EV never registered the sale with the Internal Revenue Service.

On Wednesday, the IRS instituted a fix: It reopened the online portal for dealerships to report these sales retroactively.

Keep reading...Show less
Green