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The South Is Smashing Electricity Records in the Dead of Winter

The Tennessee Valley Authority just set a new all-time high. Here’s why that’s a bit surprising.

Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

America’s largest public power company just set a new record. The Tennessee Valley Authority said consumers used around 34,500 megawatts of electricity on Wednesday morning, about 1,000 megawatts more than its previous all-time record of around 33,500 megawatts in August 2007.

While the cold weather across much of the country has strained many power grids, especially those in the South where electric heating is more common, it’s noteworthy that TVA not only broke its winter record, but it’s all-time record as well. By contrast, the market that covers 90% of Texas, ERCOT, set a winter demand record earlier this week, but its overall record is still from this past summer.

Much of the area around the Tennessee Valley served by the Authority have seen persistent low temperatures over the past few days. Nashville has a forecast high of 30 degrees Wednesday and has gotten as cold as -1 degree Fahrenheit, only the second time the city has experienced below-zero temperatures since 1996, according to the National Weather Service.

And cold temperatures mean more electricity usage. Like much of the region, Tennesseans largely heat their homes using electricity as opposed to fuel oil or natural gas.

“Heavy snow and bitter cold temperatures are creating record high demand for electricity across the Southeast region,” the TVA said in a warning released Tuesday, asking its customers to reduce their electricity consumption from 6 am to 10 am. Similar warnings were issued by ERCOT, which also serves millions of households who heat their homes via electricity. The cold snap is expected to last through the weekend.

And like in Texas, the amount of power TVA is called upon to provide has grown as the region it serves has seen its population and economy grow.

While TVA has a relatively modest solar portfolio compared to the large and growing amounts of wind and solar in Texas, the TVA can still struggle with cold mornings. Some of this is due to what solar power it does have not being available, but it’s largely because of the nature of electricity demand in the winter. On cold days, it is especially chilly in the morning, when people are trying to heat their homes between waking up and going to work or school. By contrast, summer afternoons and early evenings are tough for grids to manage because temperatures stay high even as the sun goes down and people return to their homes and cool them and start operating appliances.

TVA’s generation mix is almost unique within the United States in that much of it is non-carbon-emitting but with relatively little wind or solar. About 60% of its power comes from carbon-free sources, which are nearly entirely its three nuclear plants and its iconic dams.

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Sparks

The Country’s Largest Power Markets Are Getting More Gas

Three companies are joining forces to add at least a gigawatt of new generation by 2029. The question is whether they can actually do it.

Natural gas pipelines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Two of the biggest electricity markets in the country — the 13-state PJM Interconnection, which spans the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest, and ERCOT, which covers nearly all of Texas — want more natural gas. Both are projecting immense increases in electricity demand thanks to data centers and electrification. And both have had bouts of market weirdness and dysfunction, with ERCOT experiencing spiky prices and even blackouts during extreme weather and PJM making enormous payouts largely to gas and coal operators to lock in their “capacity,” i.e. their ability to provide power when most needed.

Now a trio of companies, including the independent power producer NRG, the turbine manufacturer GE Vernova, and a subsidiary of the construction firm Kiewit Corporation, are teaming up with a plan to bring gas-powered plants to PJM and ERCOT, the companies announced today.

The three companies said that the new joint venture “will work to advance four projects totaling over 5 gigawatts” of natural gas combined cycle plants to the two power markets, with over a gigawatt coming by 2029. The companies said that they could eventually build 10 to 15 gigawatts “and expand to other areas across the U.S.”

So far, PJM and Texas’ call for new gas has been more widely heard than answered. The power producer Calpine said last year that it would look into developing more gas in PJM, but actual investment announcements have been scarce, although at least one gas plant scheduled to close has said it would stay open.

So far, across the country, planned new additions to the grid are still overwhelmingly solar and battery storage, according to the Energy Information Administration, whose data shows some 63 gigawatts of planned capacity scheduled to be added this year, with more than half being solar and over 80% being storage.

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The tax credit “will serve as a catalyst to propel the United States to global energy dominance,” the letter argues, “while advancing American competitiveness in energy technologies that our adversaries are actively pursuing.” The Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association organized the letter, which features signatures from the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Clean Energy Buyers Association, and numerous hydrogen, industrial gas, and chemical companies, among many others. Three out of the seven regional clean hydrogen hubs — the Mid-Atlantic, Heartland, and Pacific Northwest hubs — are also listed.

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