Sign In or Create an Account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy

Climate

There’s a New Kind of Energy Risk: Cold Winter Mornings

Freezing temperatures plus late sunrises have led to some close calls in Texas.

A solar panel.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

The Texas grid has had two close calls already this week, leading ERCOT, the electricity market that covers about 90% of the state, to ask households, businesses, and government agencies to conserve energy due to high demand. These calls for moderation are nothing new — ERCOT issued several of them issued this summer, when temperatures were over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in much of the state. What’s new is that these calls weren’t coming on sweltering afternoons, but rather on freezing mornings.

Traditionally, we start to get nervous about the electric grid in the summertime around sunset. With air conditioners running and people getting home from work, demand for electricity goes up just as a major source of it (that is, solar power) starts to taper off. This effect is known in California as the “duck curve,” and in Texas as the “dead armadillo curve,” referring to the shape of graphs showing hourly demand on the grid.

The basic issue on very cold days like the ones Texas has been experiencing is that people wake up and start consuming electricity — especially heat, which is largely electric in Texas — before the sun comes up. Solar power provides around a fifth of the state’s electricity in the afternoon, even in winter. But at 7 a.m. on a January morning in Austin, the sun is nowhere to be found. Add on the fact that the rest of the system, especially its natural gas production system and power plants, is at risk of weather-related issues — sometimes literally freezing — and winter, especially winter mornings, become very touch-and-go.

While the Texas grid is unique in its relatively free-market organization and isolation from the rest of the country, it is certainly not unique in experiencing winter — if anything, more of the country may start to look like Texas. Not every decarbonized energy system would be at the mercy of very cold mornings, and batteries for storing excess electricity on the grid can help fill gaps when solar is unavailable. But decarbonization nationwide will necessarily lead to load growth, which means that making it so you can get out of bed and keep your toes warm will put pressure on electricity systems everywhere.

New England’s grid is forecasting that its winter peak demand will increase around 3% per year, three times faster than the summer peak, with some 3,000 megawatts of that 6,000 to 9,000 MW projected increase coming from electrification of home heating. In New York, grid planners expect heating-related demand to double over 30 years, and even surpass summer demand by around 2040 thanks to a combination of electric vehicle adoption and the use of heat pumps for home heating. In Quebec, which features a unique combination of extremely cold winter temperatures and plentiful green energy in the form of hydropower from its massive dams, plus home heating systems that are mostly electric already, demand tends to peak on very cold winter days.

While Texas is unlikely to pursue climate policy as aggressive as New England, New York, or (shudders) Canada, it does have a burgeoning renewables sector and an incumbent electrified home heating system that leaves it vulnerable to weather-dictated swings in demand.

And Texas has been uncommonly cold lately. In Austin, temperatures have remained below freezing since very early Sunday morning, dipping as low as 18 degrees on Monday and Tuesday mornings. In Houston, temperatures got as low as 20 on Tuesday morning. The system burst through its January demand record by 5,000 megawatts early this week, breaking a record set in late 2022 during Winter Storm Elliott.

This time, the grid was able to meet the high winter demand without malfunctioning, unlike during 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, when much of the state’s generation system tripped offline for days, resulting in prolonged blackouts and hundreds of deaths.

Since Winter Storm Uri, advocates and analysts have bemoaned that while Texas does have electrified heating, it tends to be inefficient resistance heat (think electric furnaces and baseboard heating) instead of more efficient heat pumps, which is then called upon to heat homes built with little or sometimes no insulation. At very low temperatures, according to one expert report on Winter Storm Uri, “uninsulated homes cannot be heated effectively.” Texas only adopted a mandatory building code in 2001; last year, the state’s Governor Greg Abbott vetoed a bill that would have updated codes for new buildings in the course of a fight with the state legislature over property taxes.

Blue

You’re out of free articles.

Subscribe today to experience Heatmap’s expert analysis 
of climate change, clean energy, and sustainability.
To continue reading
Create a free account or sign in to unlock more free articles.
or
Please enter an email address
By continuing, you agree to the Terms of Service and acknowledge our Privacy Policy
Politics

How Republicans Are Trying to Gut the Endangered Species Act

The 50-year-old law narrowly avoided evisceration on the House floor Wednesday, but more threats lie in wait.

Endangered species.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Americans may not agree on much, but it seems fair to say that most are pretty happy that the bald eagle isn’t extinct. When the Senate passed the Endangered Species Act on a 92-0 vote in 1973, bald eagles were among the first on the protected list, their population having cratered to fewer than 450 nesting pairs by the early 1960s. Now delisted, bald eagles easily outnumber the population of St. Louis, Missouri, in 2026, at more than 300,000 individuals.

The Endangered Species Act remains enduringly popular more than 50 years later due to such success stories, with researchers finding in a 2018 survey that support for the legislation has “remained stable over the past two decades,” with only about one in 10 Americans opposing it. Even so, the law has long been controversial among industry groups because of the restrictions it imposes on development. In 2011, when Republicans took control of the House of Representatives, Congress introduced 30 bills to alter the ESA, then averaged around 40 per year through 2016.

Keep reading...Show less
Green
Climate Tech

Exclusive: Octopus Energy Launches Battery-Powered Electricity Plan With Lunar

The companies are offering Texas ratepayers a three-year fixed-price contract that comes with participation in a virtual power plant.

Octopus and Lunar Energy.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Customers get a whole lot of choice in Texas’ deregulated electricity market — which provider to go with, fixed-rate or variable-rate plan, and contract length are all variables to consider. If a customer wants a home battery as well, that’s yet another exercise in complexity, involving coordination with the utility, installers, and contractors.

On Wednesday, residential battery manufacturer and virtual power plant provider Lunar Energy and U.K.-based retail electricity provider Octopus Energy announced a partnership to simplify all this. They plan to offer Texas electricity ratepayers a single package: a three-year fixed-rate contract, a 30-kilowatt-hour battery, and automatic participation in a statewide network of distributed energy resources, better known as a virtual power plant, or VPP.

Keep reading...Show less
Blue
AM Briefing

Blowing the Whistle

On Trump’s renewables embargo, Project Vault, and perovskite solar

Pollution.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: Illinois far outpaces every other state for tornadoes so far this year, clocking 80, with Mississippi in a distant second with 43 • Western North Carolina’s Blue Ridge Mountains face high wildfire risk during the day and frost at night • A magnitude 7.4 earthquake off the coast of Honshu, Japan, has raised the risk of a tsunami.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Whistleblowers allege big problems with corporate carbon standards-setter

The nonprofit that sets the standards against which tens of thousands of companies worldwide measure their greenhouse gas emissions is secretive and ideologically tilted toward industry. That’s the conclusion of a new whistleblower report on which Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo got her hands yesterday. The problems at the Greenhouse Gas Protocol “are systemic,” and the nonprofit “seems to be moving further away from its commitment to accountability,” the report said. Danny Cullenward, the economist and lawyer focused on scientific integrity in climate science at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy who authored the report, sits on the Protocol’s Independent Standards Board. Due to a restrictive non-disclosure agreement preventing him from talking about what he has witnessed, he instead relied on publicly available information to illustrate the report. “Not only does the nonprofit community not have a voice on the board,” Cullenward wrote, but the absence of those voices “risks politicizing the work of scientist Board members.” Emily added: “While the Protocol’s official decision-making hierarchy deems scientific integrity as its top priority, in practice, scientists are left to defend the science to the business community.” The report follows a years-long process meant to bolster the group’s scientific credibility. “Critics have long faulted the Protocol for allowing companies to look far better on paper than they do to the atmosphere,” Emily explains. But creating standards that are both scientifically robust and feasible to implement is no easy feat.

Keep reading...Show less
Red