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Three former hotshots talk about getting up close to the flames, how it changed them, and what could actually prevent future fires.

It’s every author’s worst fear: Your book is one of three coming out on the subject in a single season.
But Kelly Ramsey, Jordan Thomas, and River Selby’s first-person narratives about fighting fires in the American West could not be more different or more complementary to each other. While all three worked as hotshots — the U.S. Forest Service’s elite wildland firefighting division — their different experiences, approaches, and perspectives offer a multi-faceted (and rarely overlapping) look at the state of fire management in the U.S.
Ramsey’s memoir, Wildfire Days: A Woman, a Hotshot Crew, and the Burning American West, is a narrative of self-discovery chronicling her time with the pseudonymous Rowdy River Hotshots during the historic 2020 and 2021 seasons. As the only woman on the 20-person crew — and the first woman the crew had brought on in 10 years — Ramsey faced all the normal pressures of being a rookie firefighter while also having to prove her mettle to be on the fireline in her colleagues’ eyes.
Thomas, an anthropologist by training, spent the 2021 season with the Los Padres Hotshots to learn more about “the cultural currents that stoked this new era of fire.”
“I wanted to get close to the flames,” he writes, “to understand how people navigate new scales of destruction — emotionally, physically, and tactically.” The resulting book, When It All Burns: Fighting Fire in a Transformed World, is a first-person account of Thomas’ time on the hotshot crew, interwoven with his research into how forest mismanagement long predates the common narrative tying today’s megafires to the creation of the U.S. Forest Service at the start of the 20th Century. (It was also recently named as a finalist for the 2025 National Book Award.)
Finally, Selby’s Hotshot: A Life on Fire, is a braided memoir that follows the author’s tumultuous upbringing and relationship with their mother to their escape into the unforgiving world of wildland firefighting. Having started out on a contract fire crew based out of Oregon, Selby joined the Solar Hotshot crew in 2002, setting off a career in elite firefighting that would take them from California to Nebraska to Alaska. As the only woman on the crew (Selby now identifies as nonbinary), Selby faced marginalization similar to what Ramsey experienced; read together, the two memoirs offer a discouraging portrait of how little the hypermasculine culture of hotshot crews has changed, even over the course of decades.
Their books arrive at a moment when federal firefighting crews are receiving more public attention than at any point in recent memory — both because of the prevalence of fire in our climate changed world, and due to mounting concerns about the health effects and treatment of the workers on hotshot crews. The Trump administration has also pushed to consolidate fire programs under a single federal agency, ostensibly to address cost inefficiencies and improve the coordination of operations, which are currently spread across five agencies.
I spoke to Ramsey, Thomas, and Selby separately about their books. Common themes emerged, including the urgency of wildfire narratives, the importance of prescribed burning, and their views on resiliency and rebuilding. The interviews have been condensed, lightly edited, and arranged in conversation with each other, below.
Wildfire recovery interests me so much, and from multiple perspectives, because I think this is a space where you find the recovery of people’s emotional trauma from wildfires is closely related to the recovery of landscapes from fires.
Prescribed burns are often where you find people trying to implement wildfire recovery. In Northern California, in a national forest up there where I was working, 98% of that forest burned. Part of the recovery plan process involves using intentional fires to foster the kinds of ecosystems that reemerge alongside them. They’re trying to plan this around climate change as well, thinking about what sorts of plants and trees will survive in the new climate. It also means working with communities like the tribal people in the region, who — for a very long time — weren’t allowed to use fire, and who saw a lot of species that were important to them disappear because of the lack of fire.
As you’re doing that, you’re encouraging fires that aren’t so destructive and aren’t so scary. So for people who’ve lost homes or had emotionally distressful experiences with wildfire, these prescribed fires are also an opportunity to rebuild an emotional connection to fire in the land as well — one that’s not traumatic, but in which fire is a useful, beneficial thing within your community and within your landscape. — Thomas
Communities that build back successfully do not build back the same. There are two parts to it: One is making your actual home more defensible and more fire-resistant. But there’s also building back the landscape around a community better.
The places I’ve seen that look the most fire resilient have done massive landscape-size treatments around the community. They’ve removed hazard trees following the fire, and they’ve stayed on top of the brush — because what happens, especially after a catastrophic wildfire, is you get huge regrowth of brush, and a lot of times you’ll see another fire in that same scar within a few years because brush carries fire so readily.
They’re also doing a lot of prescribed burning. Ideally, if you have a community that’s been hit by a fire, you also want to be on top of intentionally burning in the five to 10 years right after. You have to be aggressive about that; otherwise, you’re just going to get another fire pretty soon. — Ramsey
I’ve been thinking about rebuilding a lot after we had those fires in Los Angeles over the winter. There seem to be two camps: one camp of people who want to rebuild immediately, and another camp of people saying, “I think we should consider what we’re doing.” It’s challenging because a lot of population centers, especially in the West, are in the wildland-urban interface. So, yes, rebuild, but rebuild with safety in mind and ensure that everyone in the community, regardless of their economic status, has access to the resources necessary to rebuild in a way that protects them.
There’s a huge public lack of education and understandable fear when it comes to wildfire, but there are so many things that can be done as far as how houses are built, enforcing defensible space around houses, encouraging the growth of more fire-resistant native plants, making sure that you’re tending the land in a way that is keeping out the more volatile invasive grasses that are actually increasing the number of fires. But I think our national mindset has always been that we want to find one solution for everything, and that just doesn’t work in fire-prone areas. There have to be multiple solutions and multiple agencies and nonprofits and states and cities and counties all working together and supporting each other in having these goals of building fire-resilient communities. — Selby
I think a lot of people have this indignation every season, where when a fire approaches a town, they’re like, “How could this happen?” But in certain places — like Redding, California, where I live — people are no longer shocked. They’re always ready. And I have landed in that extreme of being always ready; I’m not surprised.
When you decide to live in certain places— almost anywhere in California, but in certain places in the West — you have signed on an invisible dotted line and said, “I agree that my house may be burned, and I accept this.” Obviously, I will still grieve and be sad if I lose my home at some point. But I also just feel like, with what I’ve seen as a hotshot, I acknowledge that it could happen almost anywhere out here. It’s more likely than not that at some point, in the next 25 years, if I can continue to live in California for that long.
My partner and I talk a lot about this, how after being a hotshot, you have a switch in your brain where you’re constantly aware of what could burn and how it could burn. I look at a certain hillside, and if it’s a really dense forest, I’ll have two thoughts: I’ll think, “Oh, how pretty.” And then I’ll think, “Oh, that would burn really hot.” — Ramsey
There were very few instances on the fire line where the firefighters I was working with questioned or talked about or discussed how that fire started. There is a real immediacy to the work and an understanding that you would do your best to try to put the fire out, and you would work for 14 days, and if the fire was still going, then you’d come back after your days off. But the task didn’t hinge on how the fire started.
What interests me the most is why fires get as big as they do once they start. That’s what shines the light on climate change and the way that the capitalist management of our lands has made our forests so unhealthy, and how the genocide and colonialism of Indigenous people were the foundation of that. If you go back just a couple of hundred years, there were far more ignitions in California before Europeans arrived because Indigenous people were igniting around 10% of California every year. But those fires were not going out of control.
Every fire that’s not a prescribed burn — is it a success or a failure? I think it depends on the fire history in the area recently, and if there has been a prescribed burn there recently, or if there’s even been a lightning burn that occurred in conditions that were conducive to forest health. Then another ignition there probably won’t be as bad. But of course, climate change is shifting all of that. — Thomas
It became a conscious decision to write about the experience of being a female hotshot. In the first draft, there were a couple of moments where I was like, “Oh, I had my period,” that were a bit throw-away. Like, I’d mention that it was happening, or I’d say that I had trouble finding a place to pee. But one of my dear, dear friends, who is a professor of Victorian literature, read the first draft, and she was like, “MORE OF THIS” in all caps. My editor pushed for it as well. He said, “We need as much of your physical experience as possible.” He didn’t really say, “your physical experience as a woman,” but he asked at one point, “Could you do a catalog of the damage to your body?”
It was really other people being like, “Okay, so what about your body, though?” because my tendency — and I think this happens in books by authors in male-dominated fields, there’s an abnegation of the body. You’re not supposed to think too much about the pain you’re dealing with. You necessarily compartmentalize and tune out your physical experience because a lot of times it’s painful, and to keep going through a 24-hour shift, you can’t think, “Oh, my shoulder hurts.” So I think the culture — and it’s also hyper-masculine culture, is “Don’t complain, don’t say what you’re going through at all.” — Ramsey
I was very aware when writing that there are better voices to be commenting on masculinity in this context than mine, necessarily. But, in my analysis, I never wanted to punch down or punch up; I wanted to think about the way that these cultures function. One of the things that masculinity does on the crew is it makes people hyper-aware of all of the small details of their actions, whether you’re taking care of your boots or keeping your chain sharp on your chainsaw, or whether you’re drinking enough water. All of these things that are enforced through masculine bullying are actually things that, if you’re not paying attention to them, can slow you down, or put you in a life-or-death situation, or put 20 other people at risk.
Masculinity also has a way of reframing the physical discomfort and suffering and the grind of getting kicked awake before sunrise and working until sunset in extreme heat for 14 days with two days off and doing that over and over and over for six months as your body breaks down, too. It blunts or numbs parts of it, because you’re not going to escape it by talking about it. But on the flip side of that, what does masculinity do within the system of fire suppression? One thing that these ethics do outside of the crew is create a system where suffering — “rubbing some dirt on it,” or not talking about your ailments, illnesses, or documenting your exposure to chemicals — becomes glorified and valorized so people are not advocating for themselves.
The ethic of masculinity on a hotshot crew also becomes a subsidy for the wealthy people who would otherwise be paying higher taxes to take care of these same people’s bodies. Who are you actually helping by “rubbing some dirt on it,” or by working a little bit harder, or by not reporting your torn meniscus? You’re serving the people who’d be paying for it, and the people who should be paying for it are the wealthiest strata of society whose properties you’re often protecting. There’s a perverse way in which this ethic of masculinity — while I think there’s a certain instrumentality to it within the crew — there’s also a real exploitative element to it within the role that it plays in the fire suppression system overall. — Thomas
A huge aspect of the culture on a hotshot crew was how they were performing masculinity for each other. They were very focused on performing a specific kind of masculinity, though, that was tough, invulnerable, doesn’t feel pain. The only emotion that is really okay is anger; even joy is not necessarily accepted. There was a strong undercurrent of competition — who is the toughest, who is the hardest.
Not everyone participated fully in this. I worked with a lot of different men, and all men are different. Some were sensitive or very artistic, and they experienced marginalization because they weren’t willing to opt into the hypermasculinity. But it does have physical repercussions because you’re not allowed to complain. You end up working through injuries. You end up hurting yourself. And if someone got injured — unless it was very obviously almost a deadly injury — then they were shamed for getting help.
I have gotten messages from people — even before my book came out, people of all genders, but a lot of women — talking about current experiences they’ve had that were similar to my own. In the epilogue, I wrote a little bit about some of the current lawsuits that are happening, and it’s something I would like to write more about. I hope that more folks come to me and talk about their experiences. But from what I’ve heard, the culture has not changed that much since I was a hotshot. — Selby
I definitely didn’t take the job thinking I would write about it. I had kind of — not given up on writing, — but I had definitely turned my attention away. Going to work for the Forest Service was me being like, ‘This writing thing doesn’t seem to be panning out.” I needed something else that felt meaningful to me, and I loved the outdoors so much, so I was like, “I’ll just do outside for a living.”
There was a moment in August of my first season when I started taking notes in my Notes app. I had this sense of, “This job is absolutely extraordinary, and all these crazy things are always happening, and these people I work with are such characters and they’re always saying the wildest stuff.” In the off-season, between my two seasons, I began trying to fill in some scenes based on the notes I had taken at the time. I was like, “Maybe I will write a novel when this job is done.” I really thought it was a novel!
After the two seasons, I started writing, and when I finished it, I was like, “Okay, this would make a great novel — except everything in here really happened.” So then I was like, I guess we’re working with a memoir! And that was when I decided to find an agent. — Ramsey
I won’t speculate about why other people are publishing [hotshot narratives], but I think there’s a real attempt to try to make sense of what’s happening. The baseline physical conditions are outpacing our abilities to comprehend them — around the planet, with climate change in general, but also with the wildfires. Fires are a concrete case study for the ways that environments are galloping beyond our comprehension.
So for me personally, this was an attempt to try to gain some mooring in this unmoored reality that we’re entering. There are a lot of abstract ideas about what it means to “navigate the climate crisis,” but working with hotshots gave me an anchor that I could use to make this real and ask, “How are people actually physically navigating the climate crisis on the fire line?” — Thomas
I started writing a proposal [for Hotshot] in January 2019. I thought that it was really important back then, though — due to a bunch of factors, some of them having to do with things out of my control — the book took a while to finish. I had honestly wanted this book to be out in 2022, and that was the expectation when I sold it.
In some ways, I’m glad it took so long, because that allowed me the space to do really thorough research and also a really thorough personal examination. I was working through my own emotional material, and I think I needed that distance, and that it’s made a better book. But I have thought that this has been important for a long time, and I hope that there are many more books about this subject. — Selby
Our news cycle is built on sensationalism; that’s just a fundamental problem with the media. I have noticed a shift in the past few years where reports of fires will mention the importance of fire [recurrence to the health of the ecosystem] as a kind of side note, but who’s gonna read a side note? It is a problem of education, and that is one of the main reasons I wrote my book: I wanted to create something accessible that could provide a comprehensive education to the reader about why fires are a natural thing that happens and why they should be reintroduced. I do think that one solution might be for outlets to take more time to conduct in-depth analyses of very regional fire regimes, how they function, and possibly even partner with some nonprofits.
The way we deal with fire right now, on a large scale in the U.S., is reactive. Even in the marketing of my book, people are like, “Why would you want to write something about fire when there aren’t active wildfires threatening a community or something?” They want to leverage the threat in order to bring attention to this. And it’s like, “Well, actually, maybe you don’t want to try and educate people about this when they’re feeling actively scared.” — Selby
When people talk about forest management — or forest mismanagement — they often refer to “a century of forest mismanagement by the federal government and the U.S. Forest Service.” The reality is that most of the fires that were lit in California, and many across the American West, were lit by Indigenous people, and by the time the Forest Service was founded in 1905, most of the fires in the American West had already been extinguished [by the Spanish missionaries, who, beginning in the 18th century, had criminalized Indigenous burning as “childish” and damaging,] and orchestrated a systematic genocide against those communities. I think current dominant narratives that place forest mismanagement just a century ago do a real injustice to Indigenous people and to our ability to grasp the depth of this crisis. — Thomas
Hotshots are not looking for fame or glory or a pat on the back. Even in the way that you walk, there’s an ethic about not trying to be flashy — you have your shoulders hunched, you look down. But I think that there is a general appreciation in the hotshot community of the attempts to advocate for their general working conditions because the conditions have gotten so dire. While hotshots themselves are not the sort of people who will stand up on stage and clamor for better health care or higher pay, a lot of people who used to be hotshots are doing that work to try to uplift them.
The complicated part of this is, it’s easy to rally around hotshots as a group of people who are experiencing and suffering from the effects of climate change. It’s very hard to argue that they should be enduring that, or that they’re not skilled labor. Everybody wants to support the firefighters, right? But it provides an opportunity to highlight the needs of frontline communities; to expand universal healthcare coverage, for example. The danger, though, is it can easily become a competition — like, is this community of essential workers sufficiently skilled or sufficiently badass enough to deserve health care?
While advocating for hotshots can be really helpful in aiding people’s understanding of the increasing zones of violence that climate change is inflicting, it can also create a ridiculous standard for who should be considered an essential worker. Farm workers in California, people working in factories — people all over face similar categories of danger without having a flashy rallying point. I think that’s the danger, that you have a real opportunity with this sort of advocacy work for hotshots that is paired with that peril. — Thomas
The Forest Service should not be defunded and understaffed further than it already is. We’ve been in a staffing crisis for at least the last five years before the catastrophe that is the current administration. They’re absolutely going in the wrong direction by cutting any staff because so many of those people that they cut — while they may not be primarily firefighters, they’re all red-carded, qualified firefighters [meaning that they’re licensed and certified to respond to a fire], and they serve support functions during major incidents.
Regarding the creation of centralized fire management, I have mixed feelings. On the one hand, I think that could be really good because fires are managed through three different agencies in the federal government and that can cause problems. But I have also heard my friend Amanda Monthei, who’s a fire writer and podcaster, point out that firefighters also do a lot of prescribed burning and fuels management. Separate them out and create one federal fire agency, are they also going to do that preventative work?
The advocacy organization Grassroots Wildland Firefighters has a lot of good ideas about how [a centralized agency] could be done, but when it comes to the prescribed burning and intentional fire scene, there are a lot of concerns. To me, the biggest thing we need to focus on is more intentional fire and fuel reduction, and figuring out what best enables that. If the creation of a centralized fire service is going to help us do more intentional fire, then great. If it’s going to make that even harder, then no. — Ramsey
My book is clearly critical of federal agencies, but they are so important when it comes to fire management. I do think that if federal agencies could take more of a support role when it comes to local action — like with nonprofits, tribes, and Indigenous nations — that would be very helpful. But it’s hard to imagine with our current administration.
Say what you will about the Biden administration, but they made a lot of progress with some of their policies, and [former Secretary of the Interior] Deb Haaland did so much work to bring traditional ecological knowledge into the fray when it came to policy. I do have hope that, regardless of what happens with the administration, if it’s not federal agencies, then state agencies can play support roles for nonprofits, tribes, and burning networks to start implementing these things. I don’t know if it’s possible to implement such focused, specific ecological tending on a national level. It needs to be on a local level, with people who know their ecosystems. — Selby
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Deep Fission says that building small reactors underground is both safer and cheaper. Others have their doubts.
In 1981, two years after the accident at Three Mile Island sent fears over the potential risks of atomic energy skyrocketing, Westinghouse looked into what it would take to build a reactor 2,100 feet underground, insulating its radioactive material in an envelope of dirt. The United States’ leading reactor developer wasn’t responsible for the plant that partially melted down in Pennsylvania, but the company was grappling with new regulations that came as a result of the incident. The concept went nowhere.
More than a decade later, the esteemed nuclear physicist Edward Teller resurfaced the idea in a 1995 paper that once again attracted little actual interest from the industry — that is, until 2006, when Lowell Wood, a physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, proposed building an underground reactor to Bill Gates, who considered but ultimately abandoned the design at his nuclear startup, TerraPower.
Now, at last, one company is working to make buried reactors a reality.
Deep Fission proposes digging boreholes 30 inches in diameter and about a mile deep to house each of its 15-megawatt reactors. And it’s making progress. In August, the Department of Energy selected Deep Fission as one of the 10 companies enrolled in the agency’s new reactor pilot program, meant to help next-generation startups split their first atoms by July. In September, the company announced a $30 million reverse merger deal with a blank check firm to make its stock market debut on the lesser-known exchange OTCQB. Last month, Deep Fission chose an industrial park in a rural stretch of southeastern Kansas as the site of its first power plant.
Based in Berkeley, California, the one-time hub of the West Coast’s fading anti-nuclear movement, the company says its design is meant to save money on above-ground infrastructure by letting geology do the work to add “layers of natural containment” to “enhance safety.” By eliminating much of that expensive concrete and steel dome that encases the reactor on the surface, the startup estimates “that our approach removes up to 80% of the construction cost, one of the biggest barriers for nuclear, and enables operation within six months of breaking ground.”
“The primary benefit of placing a reactor a mile deep is cost and speed,” Chloe Frader, Deep Fission’s vice president of strategic affairs, told me. “By using the natural pressure and containment of the Earth, we eliminate the need for the massive, above-ground structures that make traditional nuclear expensive and slow to build.”
“Nuclear power is already the safest energy source in the world. Period,” she said. “Our underground design doesn’t exist because nuclear is unsafe, it exists because we can make something that is already extremely safe even safer, simpler, and more affordable.”
But gaining government recognition, going public, and picking a location for a first power plant may prove the easy part. Convincing others in the industry that its concept is a radical plan to cut construction costs rather than allay the public’s often-outsize fear of a meltdown has turned out to be difficult, to say nothing of what actually building its reactors will entail.
Despite the company’s recent progress, I struggled to find anyone who didn’t have a financial stake in Deep Fission willing to make the case for its buried reactors.
Deep Fission is “solving a problem that doesn't actually exist,” Seth Grae, the chief executive of the nuclear fuel company Lightbridge, told me. In the nearly seven decades since fission started producing commercial electrons on the U.S. grid, no confirmed death has ever come from radiation at a nuclear power station.
“You’re trying to solve a political problem that has literally never hurt anyone in the entire history of our country since this industry started,” he said. “You’re also making your reactors more expensive. In nuclear, as in a lot of other projects, when you build tall or dig deep or lift big and heavy, those steps make the projects much more expensive.”
Frader told me that subterranean rock structures would serve “as natural containment, which also enhances safety.” That’s true to some extent. Making use of existing formations “could simplify surface infrastructure and streamline construction,” Leslie Dewan, a nuclear engineer who previously led a next-generation small modular reactor startup, told IEEE Spectrum.
If everything pans out, that could justify Deep Fission’s estimate that its levelized cost of electricity — not the most dependable metric, but one frequently used by solar and wind advocates — would be between $50 and $70 per megawatt-hour, lower than other SMR developers’ projections. But that’s only if a lot of things go right.
“A design that relies on the surrounding geology for safety and containment needs to demonstrate a deep understanding of subsurface behavior, including the stability of the rock formations, groundwater movement, heat transfer, and long-term site stability,” Dewan said. “There are also operational considerations around monitoring, access, and decommissioning. But none of these are necessarily showstoppers: They’re all areas that can be addressed through rigorous engineering and thoughtful planning.”
As anyone in the geothermal industry can tell you, digging a borehole costs a lot of money. Drilling equipment comes at a high price. Underground geology complicates a route going down one mile straight. And not every hole that’s started ends up panning out, meaning the process must be repeated over and over again.
For Deep Fission, drilling lots of holes is part of the process. Given the size of its reactor, to reach a gigawatt — the output of one of Westinghouse’s flagship AP1000s, the only new type of commercial reactor successfully built from scratch in the U.S. this century — Deep Fission would need to build 67 of its own microreactors. That’s a lot of digging, considering that the diameters of the company’s boreholes are on average nearly three times wider than those drilled for harvesting natural gas or geothermal.
The company isn’t just distinguished by its unique approach. Deep Fission has a sister company, Deep Isolation, that proposes burying spent nuclear fuel in boreholes. In April, the two startups officially partnered in a deal that “enables Deep Fission to offer an end-to-end solution that includes both energy generation and long-term waste management.”
In theory, that combination could offer the company a greater social license among environmental skeptics who take issue with the waste generated from a nuclear plant.
In 1982, Congress passed a landmark law making the federal government responsible for the disposal of all spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste in the country. The plan centered on building a giant repository to permanently entomb the material where it could remain undisturbed for thousands of years. The law designated Yucca Mountain, a rural site in southwestern Nevada near the California border, as the exclusive location for the debut repository.
Construction took years to start. After initial work got underway during the Bush administration, Obama took office and promptly slashed all funding for the effort, which was opposed by then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada; the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office clocked the move as a purely political decision. Regardless of the motivation, the cancellation threw the U.S. waste disposal strategy into limbo because the law requires the federal government to complete Yucca Mountain before moving on to other potential storage sites. Until that law changes, the U.S. effort to find a permanent solution to nuclear waste remains in limbo, with virtually all the spent fuel accumulated over the years kept in intermediate storage vessels on site at power plants.
Finland finished work on the world’s first such repository in 2024. Sweden and Canada are considering similar facilities. But in the U.S., the industry is moving beyond seeing its spent fuel as waste, as more companies look to start up a recycling industry akin to those in Russia, Japan, and France to reprocess old uranium into new pellets for new reactors. President Donald Trump has backed the effort. The energy still stored in nuclear waste just in this country is sufficient to power the U.S. for more than a century.
Even if Americans want an answer to the nuclear waste problem, there isn’t much evidence to suggest they want to see the material stored near their homes. New Mexico, for example, passed a law barring construction of an intermediate storage site in 2023. Texas attempted to do the same, but the Supreme Court found the state’s legislation to be in violation of the federal jurisdiction over waste.
While Deep Fission’s reactors would be “so far removed from the biosphere” that the company seems to think the NRC will just “hand out licenses and the public won’t worry,” said Nick Touran, a veteran engineer whose consultancy, What Is Nuclear, catalogs reactor designs and documents from the industry’s history.
“The assumption that it’ll be easy and cheap to site and license this kind of facility is going to be found to be mistaken,” he told me.
The problem with nuclear power isn’t the technology, Brett Rampal, a nuclear expert at the consultancy Veriten, told me. “Nuclear has not been suffering from a technological issue. The technology works great. People do amazing things with it, from curing cancer to all kinds of almost magical energy production,” he told me. “What we need is business models and deployment models.”
Digging a 30-inch borehole a mile deep would be expensive enough, but Rampal also pointed out that lining those shafts with nuclear-grade steel and equipping them with cables would likely pencil out to a higher price than building an AP1000 — but with one one-hundredth of the power output.
Deep Fission insists that isn’t the case, and that the natural geology “removes the need for complex, costly pressure vessels and large engineered structures” on the surface.
“We still use steel and engineered components where necessary, but the total material requirements are a fraction of those used in a traditional large-scale plant,” Frader said.
Ultimately, burying reactors is about quieting concerns that should be debunked head on, Emmet Penney, a historian of the industry and a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, a right-leaning think tank that advocates building more reactors in the U.S., told me.
“Investors need to wake up and realize that nuclear is one of the safest power sources on the planet,” Penney said. “Otherwise, goofy companies will continue to snow them with slick slide decks about solving non-issues.”
On energy efficiency rules, Chinese nuclear, and Japan’s first offshore wind
Current conditions: Warm air headed northward up the East Coast is set to collide with cold air headed southward over the Great Lakes and Northeast, bringing snowfall followed by higher temperatures later in the week • A cold front is stirring up a dense fog in northwest India • Unusually frigid Arctic air in Europe is causing temperatures across northwest Africa to plunge to double-digit degrees below seasonal norms, with Algiers at just over 50 degrees Fahrenheit this week.

Oil prices largely fell throughout 2025, capping off December at their lowest level all year. Spot market prices for Brent crude, the leading global benchmark for oil, dropped to $63 per barrel last month. The reason, according to the latest analysis of the full year by the Energy Information Administration, is oversupply in the market. China’s push to fill its storage tanks kept prices from declining further. Israel’s June 13 strikes on Iran and attacks on oil infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine briefly raised prices throughout the year. But the year-end average price still came in at $69 per barrel, the lowest since 2020, even when adjusted for inflation.

The price drop bodes poorly for reviving Venezuela’s oil industry in the wake of the U.S. raid on Caracas and arrest of the South American country’s President Nicolás Maduro. At such low levels, investments in new infrastructure are difficult to justify. “This is a moment where there’s oversupply,” oil analyst Rory Johnston told my colleague Matthew Zeitlin yesterday. “Prices are down. It’s not the moment that you’re like, I’m going to go on a lark and invest in Venezuela.”
The Energy Department granted a Texas company known for recycling defunct tools from oil and gas drilling an $11.5 million grant to fund an expansion of its existing facility in a rural county between San Antonio and Dallas. The company, Amermin, said the funding will allow it to increase its output of tungsten carbide by 300%, “reducing our reliance on foreign nations like China, which produces 83%” of the world’s supply of the metal used in all kinds of defense, energy, and hardware applications. “Our country cannot afford to rely on our adversaries for the resources that power our energy industry,” Representative August Pfluger, a Texas Republican, said in a statement. “This investment strengthens our district’s role in American energy leadership while providing good paying jobs to Texas families.”
That wasn’t the agency’s only big funding announcement. The Energy Department gave out $2.7 billion in contracts for enriched uranium, with $900 million each to Maryland-based Centrus Energy, the French producer Orano, and the California-headquartered General Matter. “President Trump is catalyzing a resurgence in the nation’s nuclear energy sector to strengthen American security and prosperity,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a press release. “Today’s awards show that this Administration is committed to restoring a secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chain capable of producing the nuclear fuels needed to power the reactors of today and the advanced reactors of tomorrow.”
Low-income households in the United States pay roughly 30% more for energy per square foot than households who haven’t faced trouble paying for electricity and heat in the past, federal data shows. Part of the problem is that the national efficiency standards for one of the most affordable types of housing in the nation, manufactured homes, haven’t been updated since 1994. Congress finally passed a law in 2007 directing the Department of Energy to raise standards for insulation, and in 2022, the Biden administration proposed new rules to increase insulation and reduce air leaks. But the regulations had yet to take effect when President Donald Trump returned to office last year. Now the House of Representatives is prepared to vote on legislation to nullify the rules outright, preserving the standards set more than three decades ago. The House Committee on Rules is set to vote on advancing the bill as early as Tuesday night, with a full floor vote likely later in the week. “You’re just locking in higher bills for years to come if you give manufacturers this green light to build the homes with minimal insulation,” Mark Kresowik, senior policy director of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, told me.
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The newest reactor at the Zhangzhou nuclear station in Fujian Province has officially started up commercial operation as China’s buildout of new atomic power infrastructure picks up pace this year. The 1,136-megawatt Hualong One represents China’s leading indigenous reactor design. Where once Beijing preferred the top U.S. technology for large-scale reactors, the Westinghouse AP1000, the Hualong One’s entirely domestic supply chain and design that borrows from the American standard has made China’s own model the new leader.
In a sign of just how many reactors China is building — at least 35 underway nationwide, as I noted in yesterday’s newsletter — the country started construction on two more the same week the latest Hualong One came online. World Nuclear News reported that first concrete has been poured for a pair of CAP1000 reactors, the official Chinese version of the Westinghouse AP1000, at two separate plants in southern China.
Back in October, when Japan elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female prime minister, I told you about how the arch-conservative leader of the Liberal Democratic Party planned to refocus the country’s energy plans on reviving the nuclear industry. But don’t count out offshore wind. Unlike Europe’s North Sea or the American East Coast, the sharp continental drop in Japan’s ocean makes rooting giant turbines to the sea floor impossible along much of its shoreline. But the Goto Floating Wind Farm — employing floating technology under consideration on the U.S. West Coast, too — announced the start of commercial operations this week, pumping nearly 17 megawatts of power onto the Japanese grid. Japanese officials last year raised the country’s goal for installed capacity of offshore wind to 10 gigawatts by 2030 and 45 gigawatts by 2040, Power magazine noted, so the industry still has a long way to go.
Beavers may be the trick to heal nature’s burn scars after a wildfire. A team of scientists at the U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State University are building fake beaver dams in scorched areas to study how wetlands created by the dams impact the restoration of the ecosystem and water quality after a blaze. “It’s kind of a brave new world for us with this type of work,” Tim Fegel, a doctoral candidate at Colorado State, who led the research, said in a press release.
Rob talks about the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro with Commodity Context’s Rory Johnston.
Over the weekend, the U.S. military entered Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife. Maduro will now face drug and gun charges in New York, and some members of the Trump administration have described the operation as a law enforcement mission.
President Donald Trump has taken a different tack. He has justified the operation by asserting that America is going to “take over” Venezuela’s oil reserves, even suggesting that oil companies might foot the bill for the broader occupation and rebuilding effort. Trump officials have told oil companies that the U.S. might not help them recover lost assets unless they fund the American effort now, according to Politico.
Such a move seems openly imperialistic, ill-advised, and unethical — to say the least. But is it even possible? On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks to Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil markets analyst and the founder of Commodity Context. They discuss the current status of the Venezuelan oil industry, what a rebuilding effort would cost, and whether a reopened Venezuelan oil industry could change U.S. energy politics — or even, as some fear, bring about a new age of cheap fossil fuels.
Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: First of all, does Venezuela have the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves — like, proven hydrocarbon reserves? And number two, let’s say that Trump has made some backdoor deal with the existing regime, that these existing issues are ironed ou to actually use those reserves. What kind of investment are we talking about on that end?
Rory Johnston: The mucky answer to this largest reserve question is, there’s lots of debate. I will say there’s a reasonable claim that at one point Venezuela — Venezuela has a lot of oil. Let’s just say it that way: Venezuela has a lot of oil, particularly the Orinoco Belt, which, again, similar to the oil sands we’re talking about —
Meyer: This is the Orinoco flow. We’re going to call this the Orinoco flow question.
Johnston: Yeah, exactly, that. Similar to the Canadian oil sands, we’re talking about more than a trillion barrels of oil in place, the actual resource in the ground. But then from there you get to this question of what is technically recoverable. Then from there, what is economically recoverable? The explosion in, again, both Venezuelan and Canadian reserve estimates occurred during that massive boom in oil prices in the mid-2000s. And that created the justification for booking those as reserves rather than just resources.
So I think that there is ample — in the same way, like, Russia and the United States don’t actually have super impressive-looking reserves on paper, but they do a lot with them, and I think in actuality that matters a lot more than the amount of technical reserves you have in the ground. Because as we’ve seen, Venezuela hasn’t been able to do much with those reserves.
So in order to, how to actually get that operating, this is where we get back to the — we’re talking tens, hundreds of billions of dollars, and a lot of time. And these companies are not going to do that without seeing a track record of whatever government replaces the current. The current vice president, his acting president — which I should also note, vice president and oil minister, which I think is particularly relevant here — so I think there’s lots that needs to happen. But companies are not going to trip over themselves to expose themselves to this risk. We still don’t know what the future is going to look like for Venezuela.
Mentioned:
The 4 Things Standing Between the U.S. and Venezuela’s Oil
Trump admin sends tough private message to oil companies on Venezuela
Previously on Shift Key: The Trump Policy That Would Be Really Bad for Oil Companies
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.