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On PJM pressure, Orsted’s approval, and a carbon storage well milestone

Current conditions: Hurricane Kiko, now a Category 3 storm, is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Hawaii this week as wind speeds roar up to 125 miles per hour • Dry air in the Caribbean is stymying any tropical storm from gaining wind intensity • Tropical Storm Tapah strengthened to a typhoon over China on Monday morning.
U.S. immigration authorities arrested hundreds of South Korean workers at a Hyundai battery plant in Georgia, in a move already prompting geopolitical blowback that could threaten efforts to reestablish manufacturing in the United States. After U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers conducted their biggest workplace raid since President Donald Trump took office again on Thursday, the South Korean government chartered planes to ferry detained workers back home. At an emergency meeting in Seoul, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said his government was “deeply concerned,” and that he would consider flying to the U.S. to meet with the Trump administration. Most of the 475 people arrested at the electric vehicle battery plant — a joint venture between automaker Hyundai and the battery company LG Energy Solution – were South Korean nationals. Videos of the arrests showed the workers’ wrists and ankles wrapped in chains as they were led away.
“You are already poorer because of this idiocy, you just don’t know it yet,” Heatmap’s Robinson Meyer wrote in a post on X, in response to a video of ICE agents chaining workers at the wrists and ankles. “This will crush American manufacturing know-how.”

Political pressure is mounting on the nation’s largest grid operator to make hooking up new power sources easier amid surging demand. In remarks made as part of a public process for overhauling the grid’s rules, the governors of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and Illinois called on the PJM Interconnection to streamline the process to connect new resources to the grid, citing ERCOT, the independent power system in Texas, as an example of a successful model. “We must open all feasible pathways to bring additional electrons to our grid,” the governors said in a public comment highlighted on X by energy researcher Tyler Norris.
The push comes as PJM is fending off criticism from big tech companies and data centers over a proposal that would allow the grid to encourage big power users to pare back consumption when demand is particularly high. The backlash isn’t surprising to Abraham Silverman, a former lawyer for the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and an assistant research scholar at Johns Hopkins. As he explained to Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin: “The existing rules are financially very favorable to the data centers.” The focus on adding new generation rather than curtailing new load is consistent with that more traditional approach.
Trump once called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act former President Joe Biden signed in 2021, better known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, “a loser for the U.S.A.” that “patriots will never forget.” Now he’s taking credit for the projects it’s funding. In recent months, signs have gone up around the U.S. bearing the president’s name on bridge projects in Connecticut and Maryland, rail-yard improvements in Seattle, Boston, and Philadelphia, and the replacement tunnel on an Amtrak route between Baltimore and Washington, according to The New York Times. “PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP” a sign by the road in southern Connecticut reads. “REBUILDING AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE.”
Republicans had previously balked at similar signs bearing Biden’s name. As Heatmap’s Emily Pontecorvo wrote, “Senator Ted Cruz of Texas lodged a grievance with the Office of Special Counsel alleging Biden had violated the Hatch Act by using taxpayer dollars to pay for ‘nothing more than campaign yard signs.’” Republican Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa (who recently announced her intention not to seek reelection after becoming a target of Trump supporters) gave the signs one of her monthly “squeal awards” last year, demanding to know how much they cost.
Orsted’s shareholders on Friday backed the company’s plans to shore up its finances by raising $9.4 billion on the stock market to fend off attacks from the Trump administration. The approval came even as the world’s largest offshore wind developer cut its profit guidance for the year as lower-than-expected wind speeds dinged the company’s planned power output for the year. At an investor meeting in Copenhagen that the Financial Times described as “extraordinary,” at least 98.5% of shareholders voted in favor of authorizing the issuance of new shares.
The Sweetwater Carbon Storage Hub completed drilling for the nation’s deepest carbon storage well in Wyoming. The project, a collaboration between the University of Wyoming’s School of Energy Resources and the company Frontier Infrastructure holdings, reached a vertical depth of 18,437 feet. Preliminary data from the well “is highly encouraging,” according to the nonprofit newsroom Oil City News. “This deeper well gives us a more complete picture of the subsurface, reinforcing our commitment to building scalable, practical carbon solutions for Wyoming’s key industries,” said Robby Rockey, president and co-CEO of Frontier.
Still, as I reported in this newsletter last week, the new research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Imperial College London found “a prudent global limit” of around 1.46 trillion tons of CO2 that can be safely stored in geologic formations. That’s “almost 10 times smaller than estimates proposed by industry that have not considered risks to people and the environment.”
A long-term study spanning more than 50 years found that beavers that have returned to the Evo region in southern Finland increased habitat biodiversity as a result of how they engineer the ecosystem with dams. “While the positive effects of the changes brought about by beavers in the boreal region are significant, their long-term effects on biodiversity dynamics remain partly unknown. This is why long time series are needed to understand the far-reaching ecological effects of these changes,” Petri Nummi, a senior lecturer at the University of Helsinki and an author of the paper, said in a press release.
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New guidelines for the clean fuel tax credit reward sustainable agriculture practices — but could lead to greater emissions anyway.
The Treasury Department published proposed guidance last week for claiming the clean fuel tax credit — one of the few energy subsidies that was expanded, rather than diminished, by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. There was little of note in the proposal, since many of the higher-stakes climate-related decisions about the tax credit were made by Congress in the statute itself. But it did clear up one point of uncertainty: The guidance indicates that the administration will reward biofuel crops cultivated using “climate-smart agriculture” practices.
On the one hand, it’s a somewhat surprising development simply because of Trump’s record of cutting anything with climate in the title. Last April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture terminated grants from a Biden-era “Climate-Smart Commodities” program, calling it a “slush fund,” and refashioned it into the “Advancing Markets for Producers” initiative.
On the other hand, depending on how the Trump administration implements it, integrating climate-smart agriculture into the clean fuel tax credit could become its own kind of slush fund, paying out billions in taxpayer dollars for questionable benefits and with little accountability.
The clean fuel tax credit, known by its section of the tax code as 45Z, subsidizes the production of low-carbon transportation fuels for vehicles and aviation. Companies can earn up to $1 per gallon depending on the carbon intensity of the production process.
Sourcing corn and soy from farms that use climate-smart agriculture practices is one potential way for biofuel producers to claim more of the credit. “Climate-smart agriculture” can refer to a wide variety of techniques that increase the amount of soil stored in carbon or otherwise reduce emissions, such as reducing soil disturbance, planting cover crops, or implementing nutrient management practices that reduce nitrous oxide emissions. But to date, the federal government has not issued guidance for how to account for these practices.
The Biden administration put out proposed rules just before leaving office that were quite controversial, Nikita Pavlenko, the fuels and aviation program director at the International Council on Clean Transportation, told me. The methodology relied entirely on modeling and did not require farmers to take any real-life measurements of soil carbon before or after adopting the climate-smart practice. The rules also assume that these climate-smart practices would be implemented anew, when in reality many farms have been practicing some of them for years without subsidies. That means ethanol producers could potentially get free money to buy corn from farms that adopted no-till practices long ago, with no additional benefit for the climate.
“These climate-smart ag practices are a rare example of bipartisanship, for what it’s worth, and there’s a lot of money to be made in it,” Pavlenko told me. “But I’m not sure exactly how much actual greenhouse gas reduction or sequestration.”
According to estimates by Pavlenko’s group, the lack of an additionality requirement could lead to the government paying $2.1 billion in subsidies for farms to keep doing what they were already doing, with no new benefits for the climate.
I should note that the climate integrity of the clean fuel tax credit, also known as 45Z, was already compromised by changes made in the OBBBA. Subsidies for crop-based biofuels can indirectly drive deforestation. Prior to Trump’s tax law, producers would have had to take into account emissions related to land use changes when they calculated the carbon intensity of their fuel. Now they don’t. The change will make it much easier for a fuel like ethanol, which is already heavily subsidized through other programs, to qualify.
That, in turn, could cost taxpayers an estimated five times as much per year. When the subsidy was first created in the Inflation Reduction Act, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that it would cost taxpayers $2.9 billion over three years. After the OBBBA passed, extending the credit by two years, the committee’s estimate was $25.7 billion.
The existing proposal for incorporating climate-smart agriculture practices into the tax credit calculation would likely push that estimate even higher. After the Biden administration released its proposal last January, groups like Pavlenko’s submitted comments critiquing the methods and suggesting changes. But after the Trump administration took over, it was unclear what would happen with it, he said.
Last week’s guidance was still somewhat vague about what’s next for the climate-smart agriculture calculations, saying only that the proposal published in January is still “undergoing testing, peer review, and public comment,” and that the Treasury expects it to be ready some time in 2026. In the meantime, the Treasury will be taking public comments on the broader 45Z guidance through April 6 and hold a public hearing on May 28.
On Tesla’s sunny picture, Chinese nuclear, and Bad Bunny’s electric halftime show
Current conditions: The Seattle Seahawks returned home to a classically rainy, overcast city from their win in last night’s Super Bowl, though the sun is expected to come out for Wednesday's victory parade • Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is pummeling Western Australia with as much as 8 inches of rain • Flash floods from Storm Marta have killed at least four in Morocco.
Orsted’s two major offshore wind projects in the United States are back on track to be completed on schedule, its chief executive said. Rasmus Errboe told the Financial Times that the Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind projects in New England would come online in the latter half of this year and in 2027, respectively. “We are fully back to work and construction on both projects is moving forward according to plan,” Errboe said. The U.S. has lost upward of $34 billion worth of clean energy projects since President Donald Trump returned to office, as I wrote last week. A new bipartisan bill introduced in the House last week to reform the federal permitting process would bar the White House from yanking back already granted permits. For now, however, the Trump administration has signaled its plans to appeal federal courts’ decisions to rule against its actions to halt construction on offshore turbines.
The fight over the billions in federal funding the White House is holding up for the Gateway rail project between New Jersey and New York, meanwhile, heated up over the weekend. On Friday night, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to unfreeze the nearly $16 billion to the project, just hours after construction ground to a halt as funding ran dry. In her ruling, U.S. District Judge Jeannette Vargas of the Southern District of New York wrote that “plaintiffs have adequately shown that the public interest would be harmed by a delay in a critical infrastructure project.” Trump had his own idea in mind. Over the weekend, the White House proposed releasing the money only if Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York agreed to rename Penn Station after Trump.
Tesla has started hiring staff to ramp up production of solar panels as the company looks to build 100 gigawatts of panel-manufacturing capacity supplied with raw materials produced in America. In a job posting on LinkedIn, Seth Winger, Tesla’s senior manager for solar products engineering, wrote that the panel-producing buildout was “an audacious, ambitious project.” For that, he wrote, “we need audacious, ambitious engineers and scientists to help us grow to massive scale. If you want to solve tough manufacturing problems at breakneck speed and help the U.S. breakthrough on renewable energy generation, come join us.” One of the listings indicated that the target date for bringing the new factories online was the “end of 2028,” giving an indication of timing that Reuters noted had been previously absent from Elon Musk’s public statements. Bloomberg reported last week that Tesla is already looking at sites in New York, Arizona, and Idaho for its manufacturing expansion.
The Trump administration tried to yank permits from the offshore wind projects off New England on the grounds that the towering turbines caused more ecological destruction than the electricity is worth. On Friday, however, Trump signed a proclamation reopening a giant marine preserve in the Atlantic Ocean to commercial fishing. First established at the end of the Obama administration, the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument lies 130 miles off the coast of Cape Cod, encompassing what The New York Times described as “an area the size of Connecticut that is home to dolphins, endangered whales, sea turtles, and ancient deep-sea corals.” While Trump lifted the ban on commercial fishing in the zone during his first administration, President Joe Biden reinstated the restrictions. But this isn’t the first time Trump reopened a national marine national monument to fishing. In April, he ended protections for the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument located 750 miles west of Hawaii and designated by President George W. Bush in 2009.
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Connecitcut’s Department of Insurance has launched a website that displays extensive information about the climate risk of every property in the state in what E&E News called “an unprecedented move to alert residents and to promote flood insurance.” The details include each property’s history of damage from floods and other events predicted to get worse as the planet warms. “A single risk score does not fully convey flood and climate risk,” department spokesperson Mary Quinn said. The department plans a marketing campaign this year with ads on radio, TV, and social media, and workshops for insurance agents on how to use the website. Nationwide, climate change is already raising household costs by $900 per year, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin reported last year. Wildfires have already “destroyed California’s insurance market,” according to an interview with Heatmap's Shift Key podcast last year with an expert at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
Unit 1 of the Taipingling nuclear power station in China’s Guangdong has reached criticality seven years after construction began on the gigawatt-sized Hualong One reactor. The debut atom-splitting means the newest reactor is months, if not weeks, from entering into commercial operation. If that enticingly single-digit number of years to build a piece of infrastructure that takes the U.S. more than a decade wasn’t enough of a sign of China’s nuclear strengths, the country this week hit another milestone on a separate atomic station. At the Zhangzhou-3 nuclear reactor, workers last week installed the inner steel dome of the containment building.

Nearly a decade after Puerto Rico’s power grid collapsed and plunged America’s most populous territory into the second-longest blackout in world history, the island’s biggest musical star performed a Super Bowl halftime show that included linemen working on transformers. Bad Bunny’s performance, a revue of his reggaeton hits, served as an ode to what he called “my motherland, my homeland, Puerto Rico.” The grid still suffers regular outages. When it’s working, the power system sends occasional surges through wires that fry appliances. Electricity rates are higher than almost any state, despite Puerto Rico suffering worse poverty rates than Mississippi. At one point, Bad Bunny climbed a utility pole on stage waving a light-blue Puerto Rican flag, a symbol of the movement to establish the island territory as its own independent nation. It was a powerful political statement at America’s most-watched sporting event. For energy nerds, it was a rare opportunity to reflect on one of the worst, most prolonged infrastructure disasters in modern American history.
Rob talks with the lawmaker from New Mexico (and one-time mechanical engineer) about the present and future of climate policy.
The permitting reform conversation is heating up.
On this week’s episode of Shift Key, Rob talks to Senator Martin Heinrich about whether Republicans and Democrats will reach a permitting reform deal this year. They chat about what Democrats would need to see in such a deal, how it could help transmission projects, and why such a deal will ultimately need to constrain President Trump in some way.
They also discuss the future of Democratic energy and climate policy — what Heinrich learned from the Biden administration, what the Inflation Reduction Act got right (and wrong), and why data centers are becoming a new kind of energy villain.
Heinrich is the senior senator from New Mexico (and a well-known transmission policy nerd). He’s also a trained mechanical engineer and the son of a utility lineman. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.
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Here is an excerpt from our conversation:
Robinson Meyer: There’s one bill we reported on yesterday at Heatmap called the FREEDOM Act. It just came out of the House. It has a bipartisan group behind it, including [Republican] Mike Lawler from New York and [Democrat] Adam Gray in California. It tries to prevent federal agencies from terminating work on a fully permitted project or affecting ongoing construction on a fully permitted project. And it would establish this fund that a company that has seen its permits get yanked could pull from in the Treasury Department, up to $5 million.
Does this bill meet your concerns? Have you looked at it? Is this the kind of text that you would need to see to say, okay, we could put a deal together?
Senator Martin Heinrich: We’re very intrigued in digging into that legislation right now, and I do think that anything we can do to create more certainty in the market — and that’s true for both renewables and for traditional energy. Because the truth is, we can’t have a system where, when one party controls the White House, they attack this set of energy, and then when it changes hands, that group attacks this other set of energy. We just need to set policy and then have predictable flows of capital into the market. And so I think this is a positive step forward. And we should look at all the things the House does and evaluate them on their merits.
I will say that if the figure is $5 billion for this fund, you could exhaust that on one wind project. And thank goodness the court stepped in as quickly as they did because those offshore wind projects were on the scale of tens of billions of dollars. And effectively, if you’re going shut those off, that’s a takings, in my view. That’s like actually stealing someone’s capital, stealing someone’s money.
And we can’t — that’s third world stuff. We can’t have that in the United States of America. But I give credit to the House for coming forward with this kind of thing because we do need to constrain it.
You can find the full transcript of this episode here.
Mentioned:
SunZia: The Untold Saga of America's Biggest Power Line, by Robinson Meyer
The FREEDOM Act: New Bipartisan House Bill Would Keep President From Yanking Permits
This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...
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Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow.