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On the California waiver, an SMR, and CATL

Current conditions: Burbank, California, may hit 95 degrees Fahrenheit today, matching or potentially breaking the 1988 daily record • An area of low pressure could bring snow to the mountains in South Africa • Heavy rain is expected in Washington, D.C., where House Speaker Mike Johnson — perhaps wishfully — aims to hold a floor vote on the reconciliation bill today.

Senate Republicans plan to vote this week on California’s ability to set its own emissions standards, Majority Leader John Thune said on the Senate floor Tuesday. Since 1967, the Environmental Protection Agency has granted California a waiver to set stricter-than-federal restrictions on emissions in acknowledgment of the state’s unique air pollution challenges, including smog; due to the state’s size, however, those standards have largely been adhered to by automakers nationally. The House voted earlier this month to end California’s waiver — which has long been opposed by Republicans, who’ve called it, erroneously, an “electric vehicle mandate” — although there had been some uncertainty over whether the Senate would take up the vote, since Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough and the Government Accountability Office had both ruled that the EPA waiver is not subject to the Congressional Review Act, which is what Republicans have called upon to attempt to overturn it.
Thune confirmed that the chamber would take up the three House resolutions unwinding the California waiver, claiming Democrats were “attempting to derail a repeal by throwing a tantrum over a supposed procedural problem.” In response, Senator Alex Padilla of California, a Democrat, said, “If this attempt is successful, the consequences will be far-reaching, not only for our clean energy economy, the air our children breathe, and for our climate, but for the future of the CRA and for the Senate as an institution.”
The Tennessee Valley Authority is seeking a permit to build a small modular reactor, the Journal-News reports, the first utility to do so. On Tuesday, the TVA — the nation’s largest public power provider — took another step toward adding an SMR to its nuclear fleet by applying for a construction permit from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build a site on Tennessee’s Clinch River.
While the project had previously been touted by the Biden administration as helping advance the nation toward “a clean energy future,” my colleague Matthew Zeitlin noted that language has vanished from the construction application, which now argues the SMR is the next step in “establishing America’s energy dominance to power artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing.” Regardless of spin, the fastest Clinch River could go into operation is about five years, Adam Stein, the director of the nuclear energy innovation program of the Breakthrough Institute, told Matthew.
The world’s biggest manufacturer of electric vehicle batteries, CATL, raised $4.6 billion in its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Tuesday, making it the largest share offering of 2025 to date. The stock surged 16% over the subscription price, although onshore U.S. investors were largely shut out by the company in order to “limit its exposure to U.S. legal liability,” with the Pentagon having put the Fujian province-based company on a blacklist earlier this year for its alleged links to China’s military, Bloomberg writes.
CATL’s manufacturing is done almost entirely within China, although the company has said it will use 90% of its proceeds from the Hong Kong offering on the construction of a new factory in Hungary, The Economist reports. Though the company faces an uphill battle making inroads in the U.S. due to slowing demand for electric vehicles and scrutiny of Chinese companies by American politicians, The Economist adds that CATL also has “plenty of room for further expansion,” including growing its “higher-margin energy-storage business.”
Japanese automaker Honda announced Tuesday that it will pivot away from its investment in electric vehicles in order to focus on growing demand for hybrids, Reuters reports. The company revised its electrification investment from about $69 billion to $48 billion, while at the same time planning 13 hybrid models between 2027 and 2031.
Honda cited a slowdown in EV sales as justification for its decision, though as Electrek points out, “It’s estimated that this year – not 2030 – 25% of cars sold globally will be EVs,” and that “any company that sells less than that is lagging behind the curve, losing ground to companies that are ready for the transition that is already happening.” Electrek adds that Honda’s profits have largely slipped due to competition in the Chinese auto market from domestic EVs.
If the world merely sustains the current level of warming, at 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, ice melt off of Greenland and Antarctica could still “profoundly alter coastlines around the world, displacing hundreds of millions of people, and causing loss and damage well beyond the limits of adaptation,” a grim new study published in Nature has found. Even keeping global temperature rise beneath the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold established in the Paris Climate Agreement could result in “catastrophic inland migration and forced migration,” the University of Bristol’s Jonathan Bamber, one of the authors of the report, told The Guardian. In fact, “you don’t slow sea level rise at 1.5,” lead author Chris Stokes of Durham University told CNN. Rather, “you see quite a rapid acceleration.”
Around 230 million people live less than a meter, or 3.2 feet, above sea level, including many residents of Miami. The researchers estimated that due to ice melt, seas could rise 40 inches by the end of the century, requiring “massive land migration on scales that we’ve never witnessed since modern civilization,” Bamber told CNN. As Stokes added, “There’s very little that we’re observing that gives us hope here.”

Ikea has begun selling air-to-water heat pumps in Germany, in partnership with Svea Solar. “Sustainable living should be accessible to the masses,” Jacqueline Polak of Ikea Germany said in a statement.
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The offshore wind developer was in the process of completing necessary repairs when the administration issued its stop work order, according to court filings.
In the Atlantic ocean south of Massachusetts, 10 wind turbine towers, each 500 feet tall, stand stripped of their rotary blades. Stuck in this bald state due to the Trump administration’s halt on offshore wind construction, the towers are susceptible to lightning strikes and water damage. This makes them a potential threat to public safety, according to previously unreported court filings from the project developer, Vineyard Wind.
The company filed for an injunction against Trump’s stop work order last week. The order posed a unique threat to Vineyard Wind, as the project is 95% complete and its contract with a key construction boat is set to expire on March 31, the filing said. “If construction is not completed by that date, the partially completed wind turbines will be left in an unsafe condition and Vineyard Wind will incur a series of financial consequences that it likely could not survive,” the company wrote.
One of the final tasks the company was working on was replacing faulty blades on nearly two dozen turbine towers. In July 2024, one of the installed blades snapped in two, sending fiberglass and other debris crashing into the sea and eventually onto the beaches of Nantucket. The incident revealed a manufacturing defect at the Canadian factory where the blades were made. After multiple investigations into the incident, the company reached an agreement with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to replace the defective equipment with blades produced at a different factory in France.
Trump’s construction freeze contained an exception for activities “necessary to respond to emergency situations and/or to prevent impacts to health, safety, and the environment.” So after the order came down on December 22, Vineyard Wind reached out to the relevant regulators and asked permission to continue its blade replacement process on safety grounds, the company explained in court filings. BSEE responded that the company could remove the faulty blades on the 10 remaining towers, but could not replace them.
The decision highlights an apparent double standard in the administration’s considerations of public safety. The stop work order itself was intended to “protect the American people,” according to Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. Yet the agency has refused to let construction move forward to mitigate risks created by the stoppage.
Testimony submitted by Steven Simkins, Vineyard Wind’s Wind turbine team lead, describes the dangers of leaving the towers bladeless for an extended period of time — a risk compounded by the ticking clock on the company’s construction boat contract. “The wind turbine was designed to be constructed completely and only be in a hammerhead state, without blades, for a brief amount of time during installation,” Simkins wrote.
He warned of three main liabilities. First, the towers are equipped with a lightning protection system, but the system’s receptors and conductors extend along the blades. Without the blades, the towers are essentially lightning rods, at risk of igniting an electrical fire, Simkins explained.
The three giant holes where the blades would be installed are also sitting open, with tarps covering them as temporary protection. That means that water, ice, and humidity could get into the nacelle, the top part of the tower that houses all of the electrical and mechanical systems, which are not designed to weather this kind of exposure. “Not only will this lead to prolonged offshore work replacing damaged equipment but it also puts the safety of the workers at risk,” Simkins wrote. “Electrical cabinets that have experienced some level of corrosion become less safe and increase the risk of an arc flash event.”
Lastly, the 500-foot towers are being roiled by winter wind and waves, which causes them to sway. The blades are designed to capture that wind, reducing its force on the towers. Without them, the “fatigue” on the towers will be exacerbated, “and the design has accounted for a limited amount of such fatigue over the total life of the structure.”
Court documents show that Vineyard Wind — the last of five affected companies to file for an injunction against Trump’s stop work order — held off on litigation as it made multiple attempts to convince the administration that completing blade installation was necessary to mitigate safety risks.
Vineyard Wind also sent BSEE verification of its safety claims by DNV Energy Systems, a Danish company it was required to retain to “ensure that the Project is installed in accordance with accepted engineering practices and, when necessary, to provide reports to BSEE regarding incidents affecting Critical Safety Systems.” But BSEE disagreed and denied Vineyard Wind’s request.
The Trump administration filed a response in the case on Tuesday, with BSEE’s Principal Deputy Director Kenneth Stevens testifying that the bureau’s technical personnel had “determined that there should be no structural issues associated with the tower and nacelle-only configuration if they were installed correctly.” He noted that the towers had been “routinely left in this configuration repeatedly” while the project was under construction over the past year and a half “with no reported adverse impacts to safety.”
Vineyard Wind did not respond to a request for comment on that assertion. A hearing in the case is scheduled for Friday. Three separate district judges have already granted injunctions to offshore projects affected by the stop work order: Revolution Wind, Empire Wind, and Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia offshore wind project. Each judge found that the companies were “likely” to succeed in showing that the stop work order violated the Administrative Procedures Act, and allowing them to continue construction.
Jael Holzman contributed reporting.
One of the buzziest climate tech companies in our Insiders Survey is pushing past the “missing middle.”
One of the buzziest climate tech companies of the past year is proving that a mature, hitherto moribund technology — conventional geothermal — still has untapped potential. After a breakthrough year of major discoveries, Zanskar has raised a $115 million Series C round to propel what’s set to be an investment-heavy 2026, as the startup plans to break ground on multiple geothermal power plants in the Western U.S.
“With this funding, we have a six power plant execution plan ahead of us in the next three, four years,” Diego D’Sola, Zanskar’s head of finance, told me. This, he estimates, will generate over $100 million of revenue by the end of the decade, and “unlock a multi-gigawatt pipeline behind that.”
The size of the round puts a number to climate world’s enthusiasm for Zanskar. In Heatmap’s Insider’s Survey, experts identified Zanskar as one of the most promising climate tech startups in operation today.
Zanskar relies on its suite of artificial intelligence tools to locate previously overlooked conventional geothermal resources — that is, naturally occurring reservoirs of hot water and steam. Trained on a combination of exclusive subsurface datasets, modern satellite and remote sensing imagery, and fresh inputs from Zanksar’s own field team, the company’s AI models can pinpoint the most promising sites for exploration and even guide exactly what angle and direction to drill a well from.
Early last year, Zanskar announced that it had successfully revitalized an underperforming geothermal power plant in New Mexico by drilling a new pumped well nearby, which has since become the most productive well of this type in the U.S. That was followed by the identification of a large geothermal resource in northern Nevada, where exploratory wells had been drilled for decades but no development had ever occurred. Just last month, the company revealed a major discovery in western Nevada — a so-called “blind” geothermal system with no visible surface activity such as geysers or hot springs, and no history of exploratory drilling.
“This is a site nobody had ever had on the radar, no prior exploration,” Carl Hoiland, Zanskar’s CEO, told me of this latest discovery, dubbed “Big Blind.” He described it as a tipping point for the industry, which had investors saying, “Okay, this is starting to look more like a trend than just an anomaly.”
Spring Lane Capital led Zanskar’s latest round, which also included Obvious Ventures, Union Square Ventures, and Lowercarbon Capital, among others. Spring Lane aims to fill the oft-bemoaned “missing middle” of climate finance — the stage at which a startup has matured beyond early-stage venture backing but is still considered too risky for more traditional infrastructure investors.
Zanskar now finds itself squarely in that position, needing to finance not just the drills, turbines, and generators for its geothermal plants, but also the requisite permitting and grid interconnection costs. D’Sola told me that he expects the company to close its first project financing this quarter, explaining that its ambitious plans require “north of $600 million in total capital expenditures, the vast majority of which will come from non-dilutive sources or project level financing.”
Unsurprisingly, the company anticipates that data centers will be some of its first customers, with hyperscalers likely working through utilities to secure the clean energy attributes of Zanskar’s grid-connected power. And while the West Coast isn’t the primary locus of today’s data center buildout, Hoiland thinks Zanskar’s clean, firm, low-cost power will help draw the industry toward geothermally rich states such as Utah and Nevada, where it’s focused.
“We see a scenario where the western U.S. is going to have some of the cheapest carbon-free energy, maybe anywhere in the world, but certainly in the United States.” Hoiland told me.
Just how cheap are we talking? Using the levelized cost of energy — which averages the lifetime cost of building and operating a power plant per unit of electricity generated — Zanskar plans to deliver electricity under $45 per megawatt-hour by the end of this decade. For context, the Biden administration set that same cost target for next-generation geothermal systems such as those being pursued by startups like Fervo Energy and Eavor — but projected it wouldn’t be reached 2035.
At this price point, conventional geothermal would be cheaper than natural gas, too. The LCOE for a new combined-cycle natural gas plant in the U.S. typically ranges from $48 to $107 per megawatt-hour.
That opens up a world of possibilities, Hoiland said, with the startup’s’s most optimistic estimates showing that conventional geothermal could potentially supply all future increases in electricity demand. “But really what we’re trying to meet is that firm, carbon-free baseload requirement, which by some estimates needs to be 10% to 30% of the total mix,” Hoiland said. “We have high confidence the resource can meet all of that.”
On New Jersey’s rate freeze, ‘global water bankruptcy,’ and Japan’s nuclear restarts
Current conditions: A major winter storm stretching across a dozen states, from Texas to Delaware, and could hit by midweek • The edge of the Sahara Desert in North Africa is experiencing sandstorms kicked up by colder air heading southward • The Philippines is bracing for a tropical cyclone heading toward northern Luzon.
Mikie Sherrill wasted no time in fulfilling the key pledge that animated her campaign for governor of New Jersey. At her inauguration Tuesday, the Democrat signed a series of executive orders aimed at constraining electricity bills and expanding energy production in the state. One order authorized state utility regulators to freeze rate hikes. Another directed the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities “to open solicitations for new solar and storage power generation, to modernize gas and nuclear generation so we can lower utility costs over the long term.” Now, as Heatmap’s Matthew Zeitlin put it, “all that’s left is the follow-through,” which could prove “trickier than it sounds” due to “strict deadlines to claim tax credits for renewable energy development looming.”
Last month, the environmental news site Public Domain broke a big story: Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 official at the Department of the Interior, has extensive financial ties to the controversial Thacker Pass lithium mine in northern Nevada that the Trump administration is pushing to fast track. Now The New York Times is reporting that House Democrats are urging the Interior Department’s inspector general to open an investigation into the multimillion-dollar relationship Budd-Falen’s husband has with the mine’s developer. Frank Falen, her husband, sold water from a family ranch in northern Nevada to the subsidiary of Lithium Americas for $3.5 million in 2019, but the bulk of the money from the sale depended on permit approval for the project. Budd-Falen did not reveal the financial arrangement on any of her four financial disclosures submitted to the federal government when she worked for the Interior Department during President Donald Trump’s first term from 2018 to 2021.
House Republicans, meanwhile, are planning to vote this week to undo Biden-era restrictions on mining near more than a million acres of Minnesota wilderness. “Mining is huge in Minnesota. And all mining helps the school trust fund in Minnesota as well. So it benefits all schools in the state,” Representative Pete Stauber, a Minnesota Republican and the chair of the Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, said of the rule-killing bill he sponsored. While the vote is expected to draw blowback from environmentalists, E&E News noted that it could also agitate proceduralists who oppose the GOP’s continued “use of the rule-busting Congressional Review Act for actions that have not been traditionally seen as rules.” Still, the move is likely to fuel the dealmaking boom for critical minerals. As Heatmap’s Katie Brigham wrote in September, “everybody wants to invest” in startups promising to mine and refine the metals over which China has a near monopoly.
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A new United Nations report declares that the world has entered an era of “global water bankruptcy,” putting billions of people at risk. In an interview with The Guardian, Kaveh Madani, the report’s lead author, said that while not every basin and country is directly at risk, trade and migration are set to face calamity from water shortages. Upward of 75% of people live in countries classified as water insecure or critically water insecure, and 2 billion people live on land that is sinking as groundwater aquifers collapse. “This report tells an uncomfortable truth: Many critical water systems are already bankrupt,” Madani said. “It’s extremely urgent [because] no one knows exactly when the whole system would collapse.”

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has given the U.S. government a vetted list of mining and processing projects open to American investment. The shortlist, which Mining.com said was delivered to U.S. officials last week, includes manganese, gold, and cassiterite licenses; a copper-cobalt project and a germanium-processing venture; four gold permits; a lithium license; and mines producing cobalt, gold, and tungsten. The potential deals are an outgrowth of the peace agreement Trump brokered between the DRC and Rwanda-backed rebels, and could offer Washington a foothold in a mineral-rich country whose resources China has long dominated. But establishing an American presence in an unstable African country is a risky investment. As I reported for Heatmap back in October, the Denver-based Energy Fuels’ $2 billion mining project in Madagascar was suddenly thrown into chaos when the island nation’s protests resulted in a coup, though the company has said recently it’s still moving forward.
The Tokyo Electric Power Company is delaying the restart of the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power station in western Japan after an alarm malfunction. The alarm system for the control rods that keep the fission reaction in check failed to sound during a test operation on Tuesday, Tepco said. The world’s largest nuclear plant had been scheduled to restart one of its seven reactors on Tuesday. Fuel loading for the reactor, known as Unit 6, was completed in June. It’s unclear when the restart will now take place.
The delay marks a setback for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has made restarting the reactors idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and expanding the nuclear industry a top priority, as I told you in October. But as I wrote last month in an exclusive about Japan’s would-be national small modular reactor champion, the country has a number of potential avenues to regain its nuclear prowess beyond just reviving its existing fleet.
As a fourth-generation New Yorker, I’m qualified to say something controversial: I love, and often even prefer, Montreal-style bagels. They’re smaller, more efficient, and don’t deliver the same carbohydrate bomb to my gut. Now the best-known Montreal-style bagel place in the five boroughs has found a way to use the energy needed to make their hand-rolled, wood-fired bagels more efficiently, too. Black Seed Bagels’ catering kitchen in northern Brooklyn is now part of a battery pilot program run by David Energy, a New York-based retail energy provider. The startup supplied suitcase-sized batteries for free last August, allowing Black Seed to disconnect from ConEdison’s grid during hours when electricity rates are particularly high. “We’re in the game of nickels and dimes,” Noah Bernamoff, Black Seed’s co-owner, told Canary Media. “So we’re always happy to save the money.” Wise words.