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Climate

Canada’s 2023 Wildfire Season Was Horrible. This Year’s Could Be Worse.

On explosive blazes, Panama’s plan to keep cargo moving, and Tesla in India

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Canada’s 2023 Wildfire Season Was Horrible. This Year’s Could Be Worse.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: A searing heatwave in Thailand means even nighttime temperatures won’t go below 86 degrees Fahrenheit for all of April • The streets of New Orleans flooded yesterday • Severe weather in Georgia delayed the start of The Masters golf tournament.

THE TOP FIVE

1. Canada expects another ‘catastrophic’ wildfire season

Canada is preparing for this year’s wildfire season to be “catastrophic,” following a warm and dry winter. “The temperature trends are very concerning,” said Harjit Sajjan, the country’s minister for emergency preparedness. “With the heat and dryness across the country we can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner and end later and potentially be more explosive.” Last year’s wildfire season was the worst ever: More than 37 million acres burned, 230,000 people were evacuated, and wildfire smoke drifted across large parts of the U.S.

2. Panama plans alternative cargo route as drought hits Panama Canal

Panama will create a new “special customs jurisdiction” to serve as a “dry” transport alternative to the Panama Canal. The canal serves as a key shipping channel between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and typically moves about $270 billion worth of cargo every year, but has had to limit its capacity due to severe drought in the region. Yesterday Panama unveiled plans for the Multimodal Dry Canal project, which will use existing infrastructure like roadways, railways, and ports to move cargo and relieve the shipping bottleneck. As AFP pointed out, Panama’s neighbors, including Mexico and Honduras, have seen opportunity in the canal’s plight and proposed transport alternatives.

3. AI data centers expected to drive huge growth in U.S. power demand

America’s utility companies think data centers will cause electricity demand to surge, Reuters reported. Nine out of 10 of the country’s top utilities said the centers, which power technologies like generative AI, are a main driver of customer growth. Power use from data centers is expected to triple globally this year, according to Morgan Stanley research. The question is whether utility companies can keep up. Growing electricity demand will “stress utility company balance sheets as capital spending escalates to upgrade the infrastructure and integrate renewable energy resources,” Morningstar analysts said recently. This week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the country’s power consumption was expected to grow to record highs in the next two years, and that renewables would make up 24% of the energy mix in 2024, up 3% from last year.

4. Musk eyes India expansion for Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk yesterday teased an upcoming trip to India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BBC reported the meeting is scheduled for the end of April in New Delhi. Two sources told Reuters Musk plans to announce a factory in the country and major investment. Earlier this week Musk posted on X that “India should have electric cars like every other country has electric cars. It's a natural progression to provide Tesla electric vehicles in India.” EVs make up about 2% of sales in India but the government wants to grow that to 30% by 2030. Tesla’s potential push into the country comes as EV growth slows in the U.S. and Tesla is struggling to meet expectations on sales and deliveries.

5. UN climate chief calls for ‘quantum leap’ in climate finance

The United Nations climate chief yesterday urged the leaders of G20 nations to abandon “business as usual” and take “bold climate action” before it’s too late. “For those who say that climate change is only one of many priorities, like ending poverty, ending hunger, ending pandemics, or improving education, I simply say this: none of these crucial tasks … will be possible unless we get the climate crisis under control,” Simon Stiell, who heads up the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told a crowd in London. He called for a “quantum leap” in climate finance commitments at this year’s COP29. “Sidelining climate isn’t a solution to a crisis that will decimate every G20 economy and has already started to hurt,” he said. Stiell finished the speech by urging “people everywhere” to raise their voices for climate action.

THE KICKER

Last month, Texas generated more electricity from solar than from coal for the first time ever.

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Yellow

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AM Briefing

Pump and Trump

On OpenAI’s pledge, power plant emissions, and Kazakh tungsten

A gas station.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The polar vortex that keeps air circulating around the North Pole collapsed months ahead of schedule, threatening to send frigid temperatures southward • India’s east coast Andhra Pradesh state is facing down yet another major storm as Severe Cyclone Murasu makes landfall • The catastrophic atmospheric river over the American Southwest has dumped more than 20 trillion gallons of water across Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Gas prices hit a record high on the eve of America’s midterm elections

The average price of a gallon of gasoline during President Donald Trump’s second term topped $3.46 as of Monday, a record that exceeds the previous high set under the Biden administration. That’s according to a new analysis by the Financial Times. And that’s just the average across the past 22 months. The average price nationwide on November 2 clocked in at just under $4.17 per gallon. “If modern living boiled down to a price, it’s the price at the pump,” Bob McNally, a former energy advisor to the George W Bush administration and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy, told the newspaper. “Whether a voter is filling up that day or not, it’s likely that they see a pump price.”

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Daily Briefing

Think Congress Is Slow? Meet the Power Sector.

BAAJA would likely help speed up the U.S. transmission buildout, but there’s a chance we’re undercounting the benefits.

Power lines.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

This is Heatmap Daily, a weekday digest written by our executive editor. Subscribe here.

As you may have seen, my colleague Emily Pontecorvo and I got the first look at the Rhodium Group’s analysis of what the bipartisan permitting bill will do to emissions.

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AM Briefing

Neutral, at Worst

On Chinese hydrogen, Fermi upheaval, and British offshore wind

Smokestacks.
Heatmap Illustration/Getty Images

Current conditions: The Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river originating in the Pacific near Hawaii, is arriving in the Southwest laden with heavy rain that’s set to flood the region • Indonesia has the worst air quality in the world as forest fires rage along Sumatra’s southern coast • A cross-country storm will soak much of the United States on Tuesday’s Election Day.


THE TOP FIVE

1. Permitting bill’s worst-case climate scenario is still carbon neutral

The Senate’s grand compromise to simplify federal permitting on energy projects would likely drop emissions slightly as the benefits to accelerating deployments of clean energy infrastructure outweigh the boost the legislation could give to fossil fuels. Even under the worst-case scenario, emissions remain on the same trajectory as today. That’s according to a hotly anticipated new analysis by the Rhodium Group, the consultancy whose U.S. emissions estimates are among the most widely cited in American politics. The report, shared first with my colleague Emily Pontecorvo, found that provisions in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act largely counteract each other on climate. The bill makes building transmission lines much easier, a key step to patching more renewables onto the grid. But it also makes new gas pipelines simpler to permit, clearing the way for a buildout of the infrastructure for the fossil fuel already dominating U.S. electricity and heating systems. Still, under the best-case scenario, the legislation could cut U.S. economy-wide emissions by 5% below where they would otherwise go in 2040. The bill could also slash energy bills by $78 per year and support construction of more than 200 gigawatts of clean energy capacity, as compared to a world where it didn’t pass. The Rhodium report is at least the second analysis yet to find that the bill could modestly lower emissions. The first, as I reported last week, came from the think tank Resources for the Future, which saw a slight drop in power-sector emissions relative to a world without BAAJA.

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Blue